Good Wins/Bad Losses - The Newest Poll Tool from Superman!

[superman7515]

A new spreadsheet for you to take a look at. Maybe it will help with your poll, maybe not. As with everything else that I put out, I advise not to put too much emphasis on any one source, especially early in the season. However, it is one more tool for your box, and the more tools you have, the better job you can do.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgtKAORz8z6vdDd2amhTd05oRTZIc2EyNS1QUmFfW Hc&usp=sharing

This is a list of "Good Wins" and "Bad Losses" for teams. In the early going, it's going to have a lot of fluctuation and there isn't a whole lot I can do about that because the sample size just isn't large enough. A perfect example of this: Right now Fordham's win over Villanova is listed as a Good Win. Villanova was ranked and people expected them to do well. However, Villanova is now 0-2. If Villanova keeps losing, say they get to 1-4 or 2-5 or something of that sort, this is no longer a "Good Win" because that will mean Villanova was not as good as expected.

The reason this is helpful? Well, let's just say that in a few weeks Villanova is sitting at 2-5. Well, the How They Fared spreadsheet will still show that Fordham has a victory over a Top 25 team this season, which is correct, but will it really be a good win at that point? By comparing the How They Fared spreadsheet with the Good Win/Bad Loss sheet later in the season, you'll get a little clearer picture of which one of those Top 25 wins were early season ones that turned out to be duds (see example above if Villanova falters), or which teams aren't getting their due (that Eastern Kentucky win over Robert Morris looks a lot better in Week 10 if Robert Morris is 8-1 than it does today).

Some other "rules" of how I am doing this are a little more steadfast. Any win over an FBS school is a good win, even Georgia State (reluctantly) because they have more scholarships and are "expected" to win. Obviously I would take NDSU 100 times out of 100 against Georgia State, but the fact is that is a win against a higher level, so to be a little less arbitrary, they all count.

Any loss against a lower opponent (D2, D3, NAIA) is a bad loss. I don't care if you lose by 1 point and that team wins the D2 NC, it is staying on. It's a game that the FCS team should win. As with Georgia State and the FBS argument, there are a few D2 teams that I would take 100 times out of 100 against some FCS teams, but again, they all count, and in this case, they all count as negative.

Along that same vein, no win against a lower opponent (D2, D3, NAIA) counts as a good win. And again, I don't care if it is Campbell knocking off Mount Union, it's not going to count.

So again, in the early going, there will be changes weekly to the Good Wins and Bad Losses as teams show they aren't as bad this year as they have been or they aren't as good this year as expected. It's just meant as a helpful tool, not a definitive guide.

[ElCid]

A new spreadsheet for you to take a look at. Maybe it will help with your poll, maybe not. As with everything else that I put out, I advise not to put too much emphasis on any one source, especially early in the season. However, it is one more tool for your box, and the more tools you have, the better job you can do.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgtKAORz8z6vdDd2amhTd05oRTZIc2EyNS1QUmFfW Hc&usp=sharing

This is a list of "Good Wins" and "Bad Losses" for teams. In the early going, it's going to have a lot of fluctuation and there isn't a whole lot I can do about that because the sample size just isn't large enough. A perfect example of this: Right now Fordham's win over Villanova is listed as a Good Win. Villanova was ranked and people expected them to do well. However, Villanova is now 0-2. If Villanova keeps losing, say they get to 1-4 or 2-5 or something of that sort, this is no longer a "Good Win" because that will mean Villanova was not as good as expected.

The reason this is helpful? Well, let's just say that in a few weeks Villanova is sitting at 2-5. Well, the How They Fared spreadsheet will still show that Fordham has a victory over a Top 25 team this season, which is correct, but will it really be a good win at that point? By comparing the How They Fared spreadsheet with the Good Win/Bad Loss sheet later in the season, you'll get a little clearer picture of which one of those Top 25 wins were early season ones that turned out to be duds (see example above if Villanova falters), or which teams aren't getting their due (that Eastern Kentucky win over Robert Morris looks a lot better in Week 10 if Robert Morris is 8-1 than it does today).

Some other "rules" of how I am doing this are a little more steadfast. Any win over an FBS school is a good win, even Georgia State (reluctantly) because they have more scholarships and are "expected" to win. Obviously I would take NDSU 100 times out of 100 against Georgia State, but the fact is that is a win against a higher level, so to be a little less arbitrary, they all count.

Any loss against a lower opponent (D2, D3, NAIA) is a bad loss. I don't care if you lose by 1 point and that team wins the D2 NC, it is staying on. It's a game that the FCS team should win. As with Georgia State and the FBS argument, there are a few D2 teams that I would take 100 times out of 100 against some FCS teams, but again, they all count, and in this case, they all count as negative.

Along that same vein, no win against a lower opponent (D2, D3, NAIA) counts as a good win. And again, I don't care if it is Campbell knocking off Mount Union, it's not going to count.

So again, in the early going, there will be changes weekly to the Good Wins and Bad Losses as teams show they aren't as bad this year as they have been or they aren't as good this year as expected. It's just meant as a helpful tool, not a definitive guide.


Wow, I really appreciate you doing this Supe. I reference your "how did they do" spreadsheet but I was making my own as well to highlight just what you have here. Now I do not have to do it. Trying to make us all lazy?

Thanks much!

[Cocky]

Great tool

GSU shouldnt be a good win. I understand them being FBS but they are 0-2 v FCS.

[HensRock]

Are you really counting Georgia State as a "Good Win"? LOL
Great Tool though - appreciate the effort!

[superman7515]

Pretty sure I was clear that I don't think much of them, however, I'm not giving anyone credit for beating a good D2 team either. The guidelines are the same for everyone.

[IBleedYellow]

Once again Supe doing great things and providing the community with great tools! Thanks Supe!

[URMite]

Wait, I thought Merrimack went to the D-II playoffs in 2006? Are they D-III?

[URMite]

Just a thought and it means a bit more work, but maybe you could designate wins against teams that were not fully FBS last season as FBS1 to indicate that?

[Squealofthepig]

Fantastic tool, Supe, and I'll definitely use it - especially since I tend to rank lower teams that are inconsistent in terms of pure performance (those with both great wins and unexplainable losses). Double-checking my letter grades for each game vs. this list can only help my accuracy.

[PAllen]

Thanks for putting this together Supe, but I don't see how a loss to any D-1 school can be a "Bad Loss" at this point in the season.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I appreciate the sentiment behind this tool but unless there's some effort to rank the FBS teams I can't endorse it. Georgia State and UMass are horrible teams on 0-12 or 1-11 watch and they count more than a win over nationally-ranked Wofford or Villa Nova? That doesn't seem fair to me. Nova could be .500 and still kick Georgia State's ass. Heck, Nova was even expected to be better than Georgia State!

[superman7515]

Thanks for putting this together Supe, but I don't see how a loss to any D-1 school can be a "Bad Loss" at this point in the season.

That's why there is so much movement early. One of the qualifiers for a bad loss at this juncture is losing to teams that finished with 4 or fewer wins against D1 competition last year. They could have it turned around, which is why I say that you will see teams drop off the list or come onto the list as the season plays out. Early on this is almost exclusively for remembering wins against FBS and losses to lower division schools. As the season progresses though, it should clear up and will be based more on this year than the previous season. It will save me a little bit of time to add them on now though, because it will serve as a little blinking light each week telling me to remember to check on how those teams are doing. No win or loss against an FCS team at this juncture is set in stone.

[WileECoyote06]

If the SoCon has bad losses to Charleston Southern and Gardner-Webb, shouldn't those count as good wins for the Big South? Ditto for Missouri State and Northwestern State, and Stephen F. Austin and Weber State.

Also, why doesn't Bethune-Cookman get a good win for defeating Tennessee State? I wouldn't consider that a bad loss for Tennessee State, though.

[superman7515]

I appreciate the sentiment behind this tool but unless there's some effort to rank the FBS teams I can't endorse it. Georgia State and UMass are horrible teams on 0-12 or 1-11 watch and they count more than a win over nationally-ranked Wofford or Villa Nova? That doesn't seem fair to me. Nova could be .500 and still kick Georgia State's ass. Heck, Nova was even expected to be better than Georgia State!

No malice intended, but I am not looking for anyone to endorse this spreadsheet. I was very clear on my feelings about Georgia State, however, the fact remains that it is a win over an FBS school. This actually improves the "How They Fared Sheet" because in 9 weeks when someone is looking over the sheet to assist with their rankings, they come across Chattanooga and McNeese State for a spot in their top 25, they see "Oh boy, both teams have an FBS win, they must be pretty good." So they come and check out this sheet and judge for themselves (we're all aware of my opinion) which is the better win, defeating USF or defeating Georgia State.

Before rolling this out, that wasn't something you could look at just by reading the How They Fared sheet, which was one of the flaws. Just like examining the wins over Top 25 teams. At any level, defeating a Top 25 team in Week 1 still shows up as a Top 25 win in Week 12. However, in November, BYU defeating a ranked Texas team might not be as impressive, so while they still have a win over a ranked team, it might not be a "good win." Same as my example with Villanova, or if AppState continues to stink up the joint on the way out, etc.

[superman7515]

If the SoCon has bad losses to Charleston Southern and Gardner-Webb, shouldn't those count as good wins for the Big South? Ditto for Missouri State and Northwestern State, and Stephen F. Austin and Weber State.

Also, why doesn't Bethune-Cookman get a good win for defeating Tennessee State? I wouldn't consider that a bad loss for Tennessee State, though.

Not necessarily. If a bad team beats a good team, that's a good win and a bad loss. If a bad team beats a middle of the pack team, that's still a bad loss because you lost to a bad team, but it isn't a good win because you didn't beat an upper (roughly 1/3) team.

Sacred Heart beats Lafayette? Bad loss. But is Lafayette an upper team? Not at this point, so it is not a good win. Those are, of course, subject to change. If Lafayette turns it around and rolls through the Patriot, suddenly that win by Sacred Heart looks a lot better. And the same goes for Lafayette; if Sacred Heart keeps rolling along, it won't be a bad loss anymore because Sacred Heart was undervalued early. Things are still very much in flux, but should get clearer and clearer as the season goes on.

[dystopiamembrane]

I would suggest that line 24 negates line 5 in the current spreadsheet.

[superman7515]

I would suggest that line 24 negates line 5 in the current spreadsheet.

Haha. It shouldn't take too long to find that out. In which case, I would remove it from both teams, not just line 5.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

No malice intended, but I am not looking for anyone to endorse this spreadsheet. I was very clear on my feelings about Georgia State, however, the fact remains that it is a win over an FBS school. This actually improves the "How They Fared Sheet" because in 9 weeks when someone is looking over the sheet to assist with their rankings, they come across Chattanooga and McNeese State for a spot in their top 25, they see "Oh boy, both teams have an FBS win, they must be pretty good." So they come and check out this sheet and judge for themselves (we're all aware of my opinion) which is the better win, defeating USF or defeating Georgia State.

Before rolling this out, that wasn't something you could look at just by reading the How They Fared sheet, which was one of the flaws. Just like examining the wins over Top 25 teams. At any level, defeating a Top 25 team in Week 1 still shows up as a Top 25 win in Week 12. However, in November, BYU defeating a ranked Texas team might not be as impressive, so while they still have a win over a ranked team, it might not be a "good win." Same as my example with Villanova, or if AppState continues to stink up the joint on the way out, etc.

Here's my problem with this methodology. During the course of the year, wins against Villanova, App, etc. change to reflect the moving standards of "good" and "bad" based on games against other FCS schools. But no matter how crappy the FBS teams are that were beaten, those still count as "good wins" because they can't change. Georgia State could go 0-11 and lose to every FBS team by 50 points yet Chatty, Samford, UTC still get "good win" points out of it. I also say this because Georgia State might not even be a .500 team if they were FCS, even with the "extra scholarship advantage".

[superman7515]

Here's my problem with this methodology. During the course of the year, wins against Villanova, App, etc. change to reflect the moving standards of "good" and "bad" based on games against other FCS schools. But no matter how crappy the FBS teams are that were beaten, those still count as "good wins" because they can't change. Georgia State could go 0-11 and lose to every FBS team by 50 points yet Chatty, Samford, UTC still get "good win" points out of it. I also say this because Georgia State might not even be a .500 team if they were FCS, even with the "extra scholarship advantage".

I wholeheartedly agree, the problem is that everyone knows the playoff committee gives "bonus points" so to speak for a win over an FBS school, even the terrible MAC teams that UNH used to knock off every year. They're going to get the points for beating UMass and Georgia State, who would be fighting it out with Rhode Island for the bottom of of the CAA this year. At least this way, by keeping them on the list, you can see it wasn't as good of an FBS win as Eastern Washington, North Dakota State, McNeese, etc. There's no such thing as a "bad win" so it's certainly not going to be listed any other way, and this way gives more information than just saying Samford and McNeese are both 7-3 with a win over an FBS school. Again, it's in no way intended or portrayed to be a definitive guide to how you, or anyone else, sets up their poll. It's just another tool to help make an informed decision since it's not possible for any of us to watch every game.

[PAllen]

Alright guys. I'm sorry I started attacking this thing. Supe has done a lot of work putting this thing together to help folks. As long as he's going to continue to update all of these games throughout the season based on teams performances, I've got no problem with it. I don't see it as all that valuable right now, but could become invaluable by the closing weeks of the season. Hey sort of the same as polls.

[PAllen]

...since it's not possible for any of us to watch every game.

That sounds like a challenge. :D

[URMite]

Here's my problem with this methodology. During the course of the year, wins against Villanova, App, etc. change to reflect the moving standards of "good" and "bad" based on games against other FCS schools. But no matter how crappy the FBS teams are that were beaten, those still count as "good wins" because they can't change. Georgia State could go 0-11 and lose to every FBS team by 50 points yet Chatty, Samford, UTC still get "good win" points out of it. I also say this because Georgia State might not even be a .500 team if they were FCS, even with the "extra scholarship advantage".

In some ways, this spreadsheet might actually mitigate that phenomenon. Instead of saying someone beat a FBS team, it says which one. That lets the reader decide for himself how impressive it is or isn't.