bjtheflamesfan's 2013 Big South Predictions

[bjtheflamesfan]

I posted these on CS.com but I thought Id post them here as well.

Last year I didnt come as close on a few as I did the year before but I am looking forward to the discussion this generates as we are only two months away from the kickoff of the 2013 season (for some):

Charleston Southern
2012 Record: 5-6 (3-3)

8/31 @ The Citadel L
9/07 Shorter W
9/14 @ Campbell W
9/21 @ Norfolk State W
9/28 @ Appalachian State L
10/05 North Greenville W
10/12 @ VMI W
10/26 Charlotte W
11/02 @ Presbyterian L
11/09 Coastal Carolina L
11/16 @ Gardner-Webb W
11/23 Liberty L

2013 Predicted Record: 7-5 (2-3)


Coastal Carolina (2012 Big South Tri-Champions 2012 FCS Qualifier)
2012 Record: 7-4 (5-1) Lost Second Round

8/31 @ South Carolina State W
9/07 Furman W
9/14 @ Eastern Kentucky L
9/21 Hampton W
9/28 Elon W
10/12 @ Liberty L
10/19 Gardner-Webb W
10/26 VMI W
11/02 Charlotte W
11/09 @ Charleston Southern W
11/16 Presbyterian W
11/23 @ South Carolina L

2013 Predicted Record: 9-3 (4-1)


Gardner-Webb
2012 Record: 3-8 (2-4)

8/31 Furman L
9/07 @ Marshall L
9/14 Richmond L
9/21 @ Wofford L
9/28 Point University W
10/05 Charlotte W
10/19 @ Coastal Carolina L
10/26 Liberty L
11/02 Warner University W
11/09 @ VMI L
11/16 Charleston Southern L
11/23 @ Presbyterian L

2013 Predicted Record: 3-9 (0-5)


Liberty
2012 Record: 6-5 (5-1) 2012 Big South Tri-Champions

8/29 @ Kent State L
9/07 Monmouth W
9/14 Morgan State W
9/21 @ Richmond L
9/28 Kentucky Wesleyan W
10/05 @ Old Dominion L
10/12 Coastal Carolina W
10/26 @ Gardner-Webb W
11/02 VMI W
11/09 Presbyterian W
11/16 Brevard W
11/23 @ Charleston Southern W

2013 Predicted Record: 9-3 (5-0)


Presbyterian
2012 Record: 2-9 (0-6)

08/29 @ Wake Forest L
9/07 Brevard W
9/14 @ Furman L
9/28 @ Charlotte W
10/05 @ Wofford L
10/19 VMI W
10/26 Point University W
11/02 Charleston Southern W
11/09 @ Liberty L
11/16 @ Coastal Carolina L
11/23 Gardner-Webb W

2013 Predicted Record: 6-5 (3-2)


VMI
2012 Record: 2-9 (1-5)

08/31 @ Richmond L
9/07 Glenville State W
9/14 North Greenville W
9/21 @ UVa L
9/28 Robert Morris W
10/12 Charleston Southern L
10/19 @ Presbyterian L
10/26 @ Coastal Carolina L
11/02 @ Liberty L
11/09 Gardner-Webb W
11/16 @ The Citadel L (Military Classic of the South
11/23 Bucknell W

2013 Predicted Record: 5-7 (1-4)


Order of Finish:

1. Liberty 5-0
2. Coastal Carolina 4-1
3. Presbyterian 3-2
4. Charleston Southern 2-3
5. VMI 1-4
6. Gardner-Webb 0-5


Explanation: CCU is very good but they do have a somewhat raw QB in Ross leading the offense (although they did bring in former Wofford QB Brian Kass so we will see how that affects things come fall camp), not to mention they go to a place that has been a house of horrors the last three visits (including a 63-27 demolishing in 2011). Gardner-Webb and CSU will have new coaches, Presbyterian has potential to improve but they are at Coastal and Liberty in back to back weeks (even though they went to double OT at Liberty last time, but I would expect a result more similar to the 56-7 rout in Clinton last year than that matchup), and again, Liberty does not lose to Big South teams at home. VMI is probably the hardest of the lot to get a solid read on. They have shown flashes at times of maybe turning the corner, but then they cant seem to get over the hump against teams like Liberty (who they have only beaten once since they joined the Big South, 2005, and three times overall) and pick bad times to get in their own way (like last year when they were down 5 in the fourth quarter and then two turnovers (downs and a Kordenbrock fumble) later, they were on the losing end of a 33-14 game). This is the Runnin Roos' last season before returning to the Southern Conference and though I have them at 1-4 (although they have CCU and Liberty at home unlike PC), I hope they can make some strides before they go back to the land from whence they came/

[rokamortis]

I thought the Big South as a whole was trying to take football seriously, I guess not. One D2 is bad, but 2 is downright embarrassing. NAIA schools are even worse. Gardner-Webb playing a startup NAIA school is pitiful.

Charleston Southern
9/07 Shorter
10/05 North Greenville

Gardner-Webb
9/28 Point University
11/02 Warner University

Liberty
9/28 Kentucky Wesleyan
11/16 Brevard

Presbyterian
9/07 Brevard
10/26 Point University

VMI
9/07 Glenville State W
9/14 North Greenville W

[bjtheflamesfan]

CSU and G-W both have first year coaches, Liberty wanted to get seven home games and I guess a lot of D1 (at least at the FCS level) teams balked at traveling to Lynchburg first. As for PC and VMI...I have no idea...

[kdinva]

.....As for PC and VMI...I have no idea...

VMI wants wins, took advantage of the 12-game calendar. Yet, to me, it's obvious of these five teams with two non D-1's, VMI's two are the toughest. N. Greenville won't be easy, even with a new coach (Farrington: VMI's DC last season).

[Tealblood]

Clearly nobody but us is taking scheduling seriously

If most of these guys didn't suck some could get "8" wins and still not be considered playoff worthy

[rokamortis]

VMI wants wins, took advantage of the 12-game calendar. Yet, to me, it's obvious of these five teams with two non D-1's, VMI's two are the toughest. N. Greenville won't be easy, even with a new coach (Farrington: VMI's DC last season).

So you are the best of the worst? That may be a hard argument to make since VMI and CSU both play North Greenville. Shorter and Glenville seem to be about the same quality.

Will the SoCon accept more than one non-DI school on your OOC schedule once you move?

[walliver]

I thought the Big South as a whole was trying to take football seriously, I guess not. One D2 is bad, but 2 is downright embarrassing. NAIA schools are even worse. Gardner-Webb playing a startup NAIA school is pitiful.

Charleston Southern
9/07 Shorter
10/05 North Greenville

Gardner-Webb
9/28 Point University
11/02 Warner University

Liberty
9/28 Kentucky Wesleyan
11/16 Brevard

Presbyterian
9/07 Brevard
10/26 Point University

VMI
9/07 Glenville State W
9/14 North Greenville W

I'm not going to defend those schedules. But with only 6 conference games, filling out a 12 game schedule is difficult. Early season OOC FCS games are relatively easy, but once the CAA, SoCon, and MEAC teams start conference play, there are not a lot of opportunities for OOC FCS games.

In 2014, the SoCon will be in a similar situation with only 6 conference games, and it will probably be easier for Big South teams to schedule. I anticipate a lot of SoCon-Big South matchups.
By 2016, the SoCon will be full strength, and scheduling issues will recur, but the season will also be back at 11 games.

[rokamortis]

I'm not going to defend those schedules. But with only 6 conference games, filling out a 12 game schedule is difficult. Early season OOC FCS games are relatively easy, but once the CAA, SoCon, and MEAC teams start conference play, there are not a lot of opportunities for OOC FCS games.

In 2014, the SoCon will be in a similar situation with only 6 conference games, and it will probably be easier for Big South teams to schedule. I anticipate a lot of SoCon-Big South matchups.
By 2016, the SoCon will be full strength, and scheduling issues will recur, but the season will also be back at 11 games.

I could see having 1 non-DI school but 2 shouldn't be acceptable for any reason. I know scheduling can be tough but there are other alternatives. There are many western FCS schools that would probably do a home and home but the DII and NAIA are the easiest way out.

[walliver]

I could see having 1 non-DI school but 2 shouldn't be acceptable on any level. I know scheduling can be tough but there are other alternatives. There are many western FCS schools that would probably do a home and home but the DII and NAIA are the easiest way out.

With the exception of Liberty, the schools on that list are well below the FCS average and median in attendance. What western FCS school wants to fly its team to Clinton or Boiling Springs? For the most part, these are not particularly desirable teams for a home-and-home involving a plane trip.

In my outsider's opinion, only 2 Big South schools really take football seriously (CCU and Liberty), the rest are trying to play D-I football as cheaply as possible.

If I were AD, I would rather play an 11 game schedule than 2 D-2s; but, on the other hand, with the exception of Liberty, none of the teams on the list have a likely shot at the playoffs.

[kdinva]

So you are the best of the worst? That may be a hard argument to make since VMI and CSU both play North Greenville. Shorter and Glenville seem to be about the same quality.

Will the SoCon accept more than one non-DI school on your OOC schedule once you move?

No, and VMI does not plan to (fingers crossed ;) ).......in 2016, we'll play 8 SoCon games (7 in 2014 & 2015), one 1-A game, maybe one D-2 game, and fill with other 1-AA's (IE: this season VMI starts a 4 year deal with Bucknell, hosts Davidson in 2014, and visits Robert Morris in 2017). Next 12 game season for 1-AA's (after 2014) is 2019.

Our 2014 OOC games are: Navy, Bowling Green, Davidson, Bucknell, and one TBA. 2015: Bucknell, Richmond, Ball St., one TBA.

[bjtheflamesfan]

I could see having 1 non-DI school but 2 shouldn't be acceptable for any reason. I know scheduling can be tough but there are other alternatives. There are many western FCS schools that would probably do a home and home but the DII and NAIA are the easiest way out.

I would agree with this...as I said before though, my guess is a lot of schools, east and west, balked at the idea of coming to Lynchburg first as opposed to Liberty making the trip. Add to that the desire of the AD to go for 7 home games and you have a recipe for a schedule with 2 D2 schools on it. Do I like it? No...Id love to see Cal Poly return to Lynchburg (where they havent played since 1997), but at the same time I know that having a majority of home games is good as well so its a complicated dance that is undertaken by the AD's office when its time to schedule games each season

[zilla]

CCU is very good but they do have a somewhat raw QB in Ross leading the offense (although they did bring in former Wofford QB Brian Kass so we will see how that affects things come fall camp), not to mention they go to a place that has been a house of horrors the last three visits (including a 63-27 demolishing in 2011). /

Coastal's struggles at Lynchburg are well documented.

The only thing I'll say to defend CCU is Moglia is a MUCH better coach than David Bennett was when it comes to having his team prepared to play on the road. Bennett only won one "impressive" road game during his 9 years at Coastal (2006 at Wofford). Moglia, on the other hand, won a playoff game, almost knocked off Toledo, & played ODU tough for three quarters - all on the road. We beat Furman in Greenville last year too.

You guys might beat us this year, but it definately won't be a blowout like in years past.

[rokamortis]

Coastal's struggles at Lynchburg are well documented.

The only thing I'll say to defend CCU is Moglia is a MUCH better coach than David Bennett was when it comes to having his team prepared to play on the road. Bennett only won one "impressive" road game during his 9 years at Coastal (2006 at Wofford). Moglia, on the other hand, won a playoff game, almost knocked off Toledo, & played ODU tough for three quarters - all on the road. We beat Furman in Greenville last year too.

You guys might beat us this year, but it definately won't be a blowout like in years past.

The other thing is that they said we wouldn't start to get 'good' until year 2 or 3. Part of that was Aramis getting up to speed quickly - but I am expecting that we will be improved in many areas.

[bjtheflamesfan]

Coastal's struggles at Lynchburg are well documented.

The only thing I'll say to defend CCU is Moglia is a MUCH better coach than David Bennett was when it comes to having his team prepared to play on the road. Bennett only won one "impressive" road game during his 9 years at Coastal (2006 at Wofford). Moglia, on the other hand, won a playoff game, almost knocked off Toledo, & played ODU tough for three quarters - all on the road. We beat Furman in Greenville last year too.

You guys might beat us this year, but it definately won't be a blowout like in years past.

I concur with your last sentence. When I made my predictions over on FlameFans, I think I had Liberty winning by 14 but I agree it will be a much more competitive matchup than the last three. Liberty has not lost at home to a conference team since 06 (Gardner-Webb), so you have to think they will have quite a bit of confidence going into the game.

[zilla]

I concur with your last sentence. When I made my predictions over on FlameFans, I think I had Liberty winning by 14 but I agree it will be a much more competitive matchup than the last three. Liberty has not lost at home to a conference team since 06 (Gardner-Webb), so you have to think they will have quite a bit of confidence going into the game.

Oh, no doubt. If I was a betting man, due to all the extenuating factors, trends, etc. with this series, I'd take Liberty also.

[bjtheflamesfan]

THe 2011 matchup, a lot of the Liberty fans on Flamefans (myself included) were expecting a much closer game, but when we saw LU up 42-0 in the second quarter, I think even we were shellshocked. The Big South title is going to probably come down to that game and each team's matchup with CSU (CCU on 11/09 and Liberty on 11/23 to close out the regular season)

[URMite]

"Order of Finish:

1. Liberty 5-0
2. Coastal Carolina 4-1
3. Presbyterian 3-2
4. Charleston Southern 2-3
5. VMI 1-4
6. Gardner-Webb 0-5"

Where does Richmond fit in at 3-0? :p

[bjtheflamesfan]

Nowhere...stick to your own conference. (That said, I am glad to see Coach Rocco paying immediate dividends for you down there and I will root for them every game except when they play Liberty)

[JMUNJ08]

"Order of Finish:

1. Liberty 5-0
2. Coastal Carolina 4-1
3. Presbyterian 3-2
4. Charleston Southern 2-3
5. VMI 1-4
6. Gardner-Webb 0-5"

Where does Richmond fit in at 3-0? :p

Auto bid once they look at the body of work for everyone in the Little South...