Prognosticating the Patriot: Week 1

[colgate13]

I might be busy, but not that busy. Week one is up on the blog.

Link (http://colgate13.blogspot.com)

Short and sweet:

Duquense over Bucknell
UMass over Colgate
Fordham over Monmouth
Georgetown over Holy Cross
Lafayette over Sacred Heart
Lehigh over Albany

:)

[LBPop]

I might be busy, but not that busy. Week one is up on the blog.

Link (http://colgate13.blogspot.com)

Short and sweet:

Duquense over Bucknell
UMass over Colgate
Fordham over Monmouth
Georgetown over Holy Cross
Lafayette over Sacred Heart
Lehigh over Albany

:)
I'm so superstitious that it makes me nervous to see you pick the Hoyas. I hope you are right...the Crusaders almost single-handedly blew up their season in 2005. :eek:

[carney2]

I guess that I'm the only one picking Bucknell here. I know that Duquesne is one of the better mid-majors, but if the Bison can't mke a stand here, they might as well plow the stadium and start a cash crop.

[cosmo here]

52-10? what are you, nuts? :rolleyes: xlolx I don't want to get into the prognostication business, but I don't see that happening. well, I'll give you a shot at 52 points, but if it's a track meet SHU's putting up three or four scores of their own.

[colgate13]

I guess that I'm the only one picking Bucknell here. I know that Duquesne is one of the better mid-majors, but if the Bison can't mke a stand here, they might as well plow the stadium and start a cash crop.

The past three Duquesne/BU games (for BU):

11/20/200430-20W 08/30/200328-21W 09/07/200214-35L

They've lost, won by 7 and won by 10. Bucknell's sole win in 2005 was a 20 point victory over Marist. Duquesne is substantially better than Marist. Duquense would have finished 4-5 in the PL for the past several years IMHO.

[colgate13]

52-10? what are you, nuts? :rolleyes: xlolx I don't want to get into the prognostication business, but I don't see that happening. well, I'll give you a shot at 52 points, but if it's a track meet SHU's putting up three or four scores of their own.

It won't be a track meet... It will just be that easy. :eek:

[cosmo here]

It won't be a track meet... It will just be that easy. :eek:

even if SHU only has a QB (UNLV transfer), three wide receivers and two linebackers, I'm still not laying 42 points on this game. can we compromise on 42-17?

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

My guess
Duquense 27 Bucknell 17
Fordham 31 Monmouth 20
Lafayette 41 SHU 20
Lehigh 38 Albany 6
Umass 34 Colgate 20

[TheValleyRaider]

For the most part I agree with 13's analysis.

Smart money's on Duquesne over Bucknell given what's returning for both sides. Fordham, likewise, is deep enough to outlast Monmouth. Lafayette is just better than Sacred Heart and any doubts the Pard fans have is just first game jitters. This isn't CCSU they're facing :bang: :rotateh: Same with Lehigh over Albany, but I wouldn't be surprised if they steadily improving Danes will last a little longer than Monmouth last year.

Georgetown-Holy Cross is the most intriguing matchup for me, given how much change both teams will have seen. The biggest change I noticed from 2004 to 2005 in HC was the attitude they carried around the field, and maybe Gilmore will begin to see results from his recruiting. Georgetown I can't really say much about, but possibly they could be on the up and up. Maybe next year for a "2005 HC-style" turnaround :twocents:

I'll take the more optimistic view with regards to Colgate-UMass and say that the offense having a good portion of the line back will be able to hang tougher than they were able to in 2004. A lot of it will come down to who is able to play their game. The two games Colgate has won in the last 3 years have been slowed-down, knock-down, drag-'em-out, physical contests. I'm not ready to make them a winner (yet ;) ), but I think we're in better shape this year (offensively at least)

[Goodspeed]

rain may be the great equalizer on saturday. watch albany. if they have the horses up front to run in mud, they might just sneek past LU

[DFW HOYA]

Georgetown I can't really say much about, but possibly they could be on the up and up. Maybe next year for a "2005 HC-style" turnaround :twocents:

Six years later, and Georgetown is still an unknown quantity in the PL?

The university didn't hire a Navy assistant and swept the coaching staff to take up permanent residence in the PL basement. And by November, this will be a team worth knowing about.

[Fordham]

Six years later, and Georgetown is still an unknown quantity in the PL?

The university didn't hire a Navy assistant and swept the coaching staff to take up permanent residence in the PL basement. And by November, this will be a team worth knowing about.
Eh, I actually agree that you're an unknown quantity. The fact that you brought in the new staff means that the uncertainty is compounded, not reduced, imo. And, yes, the same goes for our program as well. The only reasons I believe people have picked us over you guys this year is first and most because of the 5th year players we were able to get back and secondarily b/c we've done it in the not too distant past and people tend to remember and reward that. Otherwise, it's a toss up ... or worse, if you take away those 5th year guys, I think most on here would be clearly picking you guys over us in the pre-season polls.

I think that you guys are on the right track (a seemingly football minded AD making a strong hire in Kelly who in turn seems to have brought in some good players from all around), but at this point it's just too early to make any defensible opinion on what you guys will bring to the table this year ... especially with the installation of your offense, which usually takes a while to learn/pick-up imo.

That said, here are my picks (I'm tempted to have G-town down as getting obliterated this week for no other reason than I know how much it would tweak DFW :D ). But I won't:

Bucknell 28 Duquesne 10
Fordham 28 Monmouth 17
Lafayette 35 SHU 20
Lehigh 24 Albany 21 (OT)
Umass 31 Colgate 28
Georgetown 5 Holy Cross 2 (3 run blast in the 9th gives it to the Hoyas! ;) ... kidding DFW ... I'll go Gtown 21 HC 17

This is completely out of my butt, so I figured I'd err on the side of the PL wherever there is a question. That said, the one area I tend to disagree with many on here is the Lehigh-Albany game. Everyone understands why a Fordham fan would give the Danes much respect but I also think they return too much and with their consistency in staff/playbooks I think they're going to be a tough matchup for an Engineer ;) team that is going to be still getting adjusted to their new everything. Albany is fortunate to have this game early imo, since I think Lehigh will only get better ... and likely markedly so ... as the season progresses.

[Pard4Life]

Not that it means much at this point... just something to ponder.. Lehigh was less than stellar vs. Monmouth in the opening half last year before taking control. If Albany can hang around and Lehigh is having issues, this one could get close... doubt it though..

[LUHawker]

Not that it means much at this point... just something to ponder.. Lehigh was less than stellar vs. Monmouth in the opening half last year before taking control. If Albany can hang around and Lehigh is having issues, this one could get close... doubt it though..


Should we re-use this post and change the names when Lafayette plays Georgetown later this year? :smiley_wi

[Pard4Life]

Should we re-use this post and change the names when Lafayette plays Georgetown later this year? :smiley_wi

That's a different story. I would keep an eye on G'town this year Hawker... they are going to bite you one day..

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Bucknell 28 Duquesne 10
Fordham 28 Monmouth 17
Lafayette 35 SHU 20
Lehigh 24 Albany 21 (OT)
Umass 31 Colgate 28
Georgetown 5 Holy Cross 2 (3 run blast in the 9th gives it to the Hoyas! ;) ... kidding DFW ... I'll go Gtown 21 HC 17

This is completely out of my butt, so I figured I'd err on the side of the PL wherever there is a question. That said, the one area I tend to disagree with many on here is the Lehigh-Albany game. Everyone understands why a Fordham fan would give the Danes much respect but I also think they return too much and with their consistency in staff/playbooks I think they're going to be a tough matchup for an Engineer ;) team that is going to be still getting adjusted to their new everything. Albany is fortunate to have this game early imo, since I think Lehigh will only get better ... and likely markedly so ... as the season progresses.

If Lehigh wins by less then 10 points i will be very very concerned heading into next week vs. Villanova and probably for the rest of the year. Everything comming out of camp is this is a much more enthusiastic team focused on winning and playing as a complete team to do it. The transition has been seemless and has become a welcome relief for most of the team. Lehigh will be starting 16 Sr's. against Albany, 5 Jr's and 1 soph filling in for Morgan. This is a very experienced team that should have little trouble in the first game.

[ngineer]

Albany has a very experienced team returning this year with some good athletes and a huge offensive line. Yes, we should win, but I don't see anything that points to a blow-out. We'll be missing at least three starters: Bode DL, Thomas DB and Morgan DL, so time for some experience to step in. First games of the year can be hairy. Colgate/CCSU last year showed what can happen on AGS. I don't care so much about the score as a nice solid ball controlled win. Something we haven't seen in a number of years. With Ernesto coming up the coast, Saturday could also be sloppy. I know the SE area of the US will be wet. Whether it gets as far as us by Saturday afternoon is still iffy.

Lehigh 34 Albany 17:nod:

[LUHawker]

That's a different story. I would keep an eye on G'town this year Hawker... they are going to bite you one day..

I expect them to bite you first.

[LBPop]

I'll go Gtown 21 HC 17



If the Hoyas can score 21 points, they will be tough to beat. It's more than just points. If they are scoring they are probably holding onto the ball. What has killed Georgetown the past two years has been the constant "three-and-outs." They create lousy field position, give the opposing offense too many chances, and they wear out the defenders. I would take 21 against almost any Georgetown opponent and like the Hoyas' chances. :twocents:

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Looks like we could be seein some rainball this weekend. Ernesto looks to be taking a trip up I-95 Saturday and could dump a decent sum of rain on most of the games. It's only Tuesday, hoping Ernesto makes a right hander before then. Not a big fan of slop ball.

[carney2]

I expect them to bite you first.

Already been bitten. Last 3 years:

2005: LC 12, Gtown 7
2004: LC 17, Gtown 6
2003: Gtown 17, LC 10

Not exactly rippin' their football hearts out.

[Pard4Life]

Looks like we could be seein some rainball this weekend. Ernesto looks to be taking a trip up I-95 Saturday and could dump a decent sum of rain on most of the games. It's only Tuesday, hoping Ernesto makes a right hander before then. Not a big fan of slop ball.

*#!@*%$#%#@ Ernesto!!! : flamemad

Nine months of waiting for this? Ugh..

Anyhow, Sacred Heart is AstroTurf... no repeats of Columbia here...

..and now that I think of it... we don't play on grass until 10/28 at Colgate.. our only grass game of the year! It's great having a new field and all... but that kinda sucks!

[ngineer]

Forecast for Saturday in the PA/NJ area is rain and thunderstorms @ 70% chance.:( What a way to start the season. Will certainly hold down the crowds and throw the 'great equalizer' into the equations. I hope it isn't anything like last October with the monsoon disaster. : smh : Still a chance Ernesto veers to the east and goes out over the ocean, but that's not the 'smart' money right now. Pray for a high pressure system from the north...Get us some help Joe!!!;)

[LBPop]

From a Dad's perspective I think about the visiting teams riding a bus in that kind of weather. Glad LBKid is at home, but I do wish Holy Cross and all the teams on the road safe travels. Of course, that's where my compassion stops. I hope the Crusaders have a safe trip to DC and I hope they have a safe, but disappointing trip home. ;)

[89Hen]

Just got a weather report from a very reliable source...

"After making landfall somewhere along the North Carolina coast (between Wilmington and Morehead City), Ernesto will continue almost due north. That track will bring the center close to Washington/Baltimore on Saturday and Scranton/Binghamton by Sunday morning...

As for rainfall amounts...it looks as though the amounts will be in the 5 to 10 inch range, with isolated amounts even higher than that...

this situation bears some resemblance to both Hurricane Isabel and Hurricane Floyd, both of which produced flooding from the southern Chesapeake region well north into Pennsylvania. It will travel faster than Floyd, and that will help, but due to the pre-existing front, the very warm ocean waters, and the long easterly fetch, very heavy/flooding rains are now on the table for this weekend. The forecast can change, just as it has since yesterday, but the "out to sea" option is gone...the high to the north will block any attempt at that. Ernesto is coming ashore on the east coast, and the pattern suggests that there will be two more threats in the next 2-3 weeks."

[carney2]

Just got a weather report from a very reliable source...

"After making landfall somewhere along the North Carolina coast (between Wilmington and Morehead City), Ernesto will continue almost due north. That track will bring the center close to Washington/Baltimore on Saturday and Scranton/Binghamton by Sunday morning...

As for rainfall amounts...it looks as though the amounts will be in the 5 to 10 inch range, with isolated amounts even higher than that...

this situation bears some resemblance to both Hurricane Isabel and Hurricane Floyd, both of which produced flooding from the southern Chesapeake region well north into Pennsylvania. It will travel faster than Floyd, and that will help, but due to the pre-existing front, the very warm ocean waters, and the long easterly fetch, very heavy/flooding rains are now on the table for this weekend. The forecast can change, just as it has since yesterday, but the "out to sea" option is gone...the high to the north will block any attempt at that. Ernesto is coming ashore on the east coast, and the pattern suggests that there will be two more threats in the next 2-3 weeks."

Real fans won't even notice. Having said that, I hope that my seats for Saturday's Virginia-Pitt game are under cover.

[Pard4Life]

The weather outlined the situation very nicely last night... basically the storm will be inland, but the moisture will be pumped into the system from the ocean, causing massive rainfall in NJ/NYC area.. that means Fairfield CT is likely going to get pounded. Sacred Heart's turf better hold... and the equalizing factor is making me a bit nervous. But, I do believe our running game is superior, as is our OL, and our short passing game is very reliable. We should still win the game comfortably.

Will it be a repeat of Columbia?

[89Hen]

I hope that my seats for Saturday's Virginia-Pitt game are under cover.
I was actually entertaining the idea of driving up for that game. We can't make either of the next two UVA games at home. It's a four hour drive, so I doubt we'll actually go.

[carney2]

I was actually entertaining the idea of driving up for that game. We can't make either of the next two UVA games at home. It's a four hour drive, so I doubt we'll actually go.

A night game in the rain. Imagine the return trip if you're not staying over. Actually, Sunday looks to be no better than Saturday, so imagine the return trip even if you stay over.

[89Hen]

A night game in the rain. Imagine the return trip if you're not staying over.
Yeah, getting home at 2am is just no appealing to me. I'm trying to find somebody who actually has ESPNU so I can watch it at home.

[LBPop]

Yeah, getting home at 2am is just no appealing to me. I'm trying to find somebody who actually has ESPNU so I can watch it at home.

There is something else to do a little closer to home...:rolleyes:

[Pard4Life]

Hey PL fans... the weekly pick'em is starting up on the PL board... make some predictions..

http://www.voy.com/65230/

[89Hen]

There is something else to do a little closer to home...:rolleyes:
Hey, I said I might drive down Canal on Saturday.:thumbsup:

[LBPop]

Hey PL fans... the weekly pick'em is starting up on the PL board... make some predictions..
http://www.voy.com/65230/

A Hoya steps up! Thanks, DFW. :hurray: :bow:

[Go...gate]

*#!@*%$#%#@ Ernesto!!! : flamemad

Nine months of waiting for this? Ugh..

Anyhow, Sacred Heart is AstroTurf... no repeats of Columbia here...

..and now that I think of it... we don't play on grass until 10/28 at Colgate.. our only grass game of the year! It's great having a new field and all... but that kinda sucks!

Not to worry about October 28. There will be at least a foot of snow on the Andy Kerr "PermaFrostTurf" by that time. :D

I'm going with the Bison over Duquesne. Seems as if DU's athletic administration is really making a special effort to hurt their own football program.

[ngineer]

Just got a weather report from a very reliable source...

"After making landfall somewhere along the North Carolina coast (between Wilmington and Morehead City), Ernesto will continue almost due north. That track will bring the center close to Washington/Baltimore on Saturday and Scranton/Binghamton by Sunday morning...

As for rainfall amounts...it looks as though the amounts will be in the 5 to 10 inch range, with isolated amounts even higher than that...

this situation bears some resemblance to both Hurricane Isabel and Hurricane Floyd, both of which produced flooding from the southern Chesapeake region well north into Pennsylvania. It will travel faster than Floyd, and that will help, but due to the pre-existing front, the very warm ocean waters, and the long easterly fetch, very heavy/flooding rains are now on the table for this weekend. The forecast can change, just as it has since yesterday, but the "out to sea" option is gone...the high to the north will block any attempt at that. Ernesto is coming ashore on the east coast, and the pattern suggests that there will be two more threats in the next 2-3 weeks."

Party Pooper!:p

[Go...gate]

Mud Bowl weekend coming up.....

[UAalum72]

Latest Storm Track (http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/LoadPage.aspx?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=TrackingCharts&product=HurTrack2&prodnav=none&pid=none/[URL=) http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/LoadPage.aspx?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=TrackingCharts&product=HurTrack2&prodnav=none&pid=none shows Ernesto over London, Ontario by game time Saturday. Better than earlier predictions that had it over Altoona at that time - would have been perfect for St. Francis' new stadium debut

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Latest Storm Track (http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/LoadPage.aspx?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=TrackingCharts&product=HurTrack2&prodnav=none&pid=none/[URL=) http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/LoadPage.aspx?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=TrackingCharts&product=HurTrack2&prodnav=none&pid=none shows Ernesto over London, Ontario by game time Saturday. Better than earlier predictions that had it over Altoona at that time - would have been perfect for St. Francis' new stadium debut

I don't think it will be too bad. From what i gather by looking at the possible track unless it decides to park somewhere or really slow down it should be in either New England or thereabouts by noon Saturday. I think the games from say the PA/NY border and south should be ok by the afternoon. I think Friday night and early Saturday morning is when Philly/Allentown will see the worst. The Umass/Colgate game or any games in western NY could be a real mess depending on the track.

[Fordham]

Good luck to all my PL brethren in their OOC matchups this weekend. Here's hoping the league gets off to a rousing start.

Let's get it on!

http://www.lvrj.com/lvrj_home/1998/Jun-24-Wed-1998/photos/lane.jpg

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Just made my picks for the weekend on the blog.

http://lehighfootballnation.blogspot.com

Upset of the Week: Monmouth over Fordham :rotateh:

[ngineer]

Good luck to all my PL brethren in their OOC matchups this weekend. Here's hoping the league gets off to a rousing start.

Let's get it on

http://www.lvrj.com/lvrj_home/1998/Jun-24-Wed-1998/photos/lane.jpg


A-Men! Best of Luck to all the PLers braving the elements out there tomorrow. Let's put on a good show.:thumbsup:

[Fordham]

Just made my picks for the weekend on the blog.

http://lehighfootballnation.blogspot.com

Upset of the Week: Monmouth over Fordham :rotateh:

http://www.dallasnews.com/img/photo/08-04/13_NS_23OLYgymBOO1.JPG http://bostondirtdogs.boston.com/Headline_Archives/fans_boo.jpg

BOOOO!!!!

[JoltinJoe]

Just made my picks for the weekend on the blog.

http://lehighfootballnation.blogspot.com

Upset of the Week: Monmouth over Fordham :rotateh:

My upset of the week: Lehigh over Albany.:p

[Pard4Life]

My upset of the week: Lehigh over Albany.:p

xlolx

I think Fordham is going to win this one narrowly... from what I have read, the Rams had a respectable preseason despite some mild questions at quarterback... don't know a whole lot about Monmouth except they lost Austin and are tabbed to be in the middle of the NEC pact.

Anyhow, the 4th best PL team should be able to handle the 4th best NEC team..