Which poll is the best playoff predictor?

[Professor Chaos]

So now that all the polls are out (and since this has been a pretty hot debate over the last few weeks) which poll really is the best playoff indicator? Here's the breakdown as to what each poll had as the 10 best teams to not receive an automatic bid to the playoffs:

AGS Poll (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?124367-AGS-Poll-Results-Week-12-2012-Final-Regular-Season-Poll)
1. Montana St (2)
2. Old Dominion (4)
3. Sam Houston St (5)
4. Appalachian St (7)
5. Cal Poly (9)
6. Wofford (10)
7. Stony Brook (12)
8. Richmond (13)
9. Illinois St (14)
10. New Hampshire (15)

Missed: South Dakota St (16)

TSN Poll (http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/misc/tsn-div-1aa-poll.htm)
1. Montana St (2)
2. Old Dominion (3)
3. Sam Houston St (5)
4. Appalachian St (7)
5. Wofford (9)
6. Stony Brook (10)
7. New Hampshire (11)
8. Cal Poly (12)
9. Lehigh (13)
10. Towson (15)

Missed: Illinois St (16), South Dakota St (19)

GPI (http://www.collegesportingnews.com/stats/writer/gpi/20121119GPI.htm)
1. Montana St (2)
2. Sam Houston St (3)
3. Cal Poly (6)
4. South Dakota St (T7)
5. Old Dominion (9)
6. Illinois St (10)
7. Appalachian St (11)
8. Eastern Kentucky (12)
9. Towson (T13)
10. Indiana St (T13)

Missed: Wofford (15), Stony Brook (23), New Hampshire (26)

Coach's Poll (http://www.gobison.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=2400&ATCLID=205751629)
1. Montana St (2)
2. Old Dominion (3)
3. Sam Houston St (5)
4. Appalachian St (6)
5. Wofford (9)
6. Lehigh (10)
7. Stony Brook (11)
8. Cal Poly (12)
9. New Hampshire (13)
10. Towson (14)

Missed: Illinois St (15), South Dakota St (21)


AGS: 9 correct
TSN, Coach's: 8 correct
GPI: 7 correct

Winner: AGS! xthumbsupx

Once again the proof is in the pudding. xrulesx

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Funny how close it was to having SDSU in as well. Richmond, Ill. St., UNH, and SDSU are separated by a total of 18 points from start to finish in that 4 dog race.

[walliver]

AGS, TSN, and the Coaches's polls had reasonable misses.

GPI had some wild misses.

[StonewallSpider]

A good argument for putting AGS back in GPI

OLD GPI Calc w AGS poll
1. Montana St (2)
2. Sam Houston St (3)
3. Cal Poly (6)
4. Old Dominion (T7)
5. South Dakota St (9)
6. Illinois St (10)
7. Appalachian St (11)
8. Wofford (12)
9. Eastern Kentucky (13)
10. Towson (14)

Missing SB (23) and UNH (26)

[CSN-info]

GPI had some wild misses.

GPI (http://www.collegesportingnews.com/stats/writer/gpi/20121119GPI.htm)
1. Montana St (2)
2. Sam Houston St (3)
3. Cal Poly (6)
4. South Dakota St (T7)
5. Old Dominion (9)
6. Illinois St (10)
7. Appalachian St (11)
8. Eastern Kentucky (12)
9. Towson (T13)
10. Indiana St (T13)

Missed: Wofford (15), Stony Brook (23), New Hampshire (26)

Indiana State was not eligible due to only 6 D-I wins. The AGS Poll was finished after playoff selection was announced.

The GPI Indicated: (http://www.collegesportingnews.com/content.php?869-2012-Regular-Season-Ends-with-North-Dakota-State-at-No.-1-in-the-Gridiron-Power-Index-(GPI))
2. Montana State
3. Sam Houston State
6. Cal Poly
7T. South Dakota State
9. Old Dominion
10. Illinois State
11. Appalachian State
12. Eastern Kentucky
13T. Towson
15. Wofford

The committee chose #23 Stony Brook and #26 New Hampshire, instead of #12 Eastern Kentucky and #13T Towson.

Sad to say but Eastern Kentucky and Towson share the "Woofed" team of the year.

[danefan]

Indiana State was not eligible due to only 6 D-I wins. The AGS Poll was finished after playoff selection was announced.

The GPI Indicated: (http://www.collegesportingnews.com/content.php?869-2012-Regular-Season-Ends-with-North-Dakota-State-at-No.-1-in-the-Gridiron-Power-Index-(GPI))
2. Montana State
3. Sam Houston State
6. Cal Poly
7T. South Dakota State
9. Old Dominion
10. Illinois State
11. Appalachian State
12. Eastern Kentucky
13T. Towson
15. Wofford

The committee chose #23 Stony Brook and #26 New Hampshire, instead of #12 Eastern Kentucky and #13T Towson.

Sad to say but Eastern Kentucky and Towson share the "Woofed" team of the year.

When were the final TSN and Coaches Poll submissions?

[Wallace]

When were the final TSN and Coaches Poll submissions?

The opinion polls were due Sunday morning. The regular GPI is computer ratings and those opinion polls.

[Mr. C]

Doesn't the GPI use certain opinion polls in its calculations?

[danefan]

Yup, as I suspected, the AGS poll was more accurate then any other poll or rating.

[bluehenbillk]

I believe now the AGS Poll has not been outperformed in the last 4-5 years at least. If I'm wrong I'd like to see where.

Maybe the committee should just look at that, heck not only was it the best poll at the end, it was all season long as well.

[Wallace]

Only the major opinion polls were done along with the GPI before the NCAA announcement. Fact: All the rest picked which teams were in after they were announced... that may be difficult for some to understand.

[PantherRob82]

Only the major opinion polls were done along with the GPI before the NCAA announcement. Fact: All the rest picked which teams were in after they were announced... that may be difficult for some to understand.

Why would people care about facts when it comes to arguing with you? You stopped caring about factual information years ago. xlolx

[frozennorth]

Only the major opinion polls were done along with the GPI before the NCAA announcement. Fact: All the rest picked which teams were in after they were announced... that may be difficult for some to understand.

as is covered in this weeks ags poll thread, roughly 80% of ballots were in before the selection show.

[Wallace]

Why would people care about facts when it comes to arguing with you? You stopped caring about factual information years ago. xlolx

Get it Rob, I don't care about your laughably uninformed opinion anymore. Your stabs in the back are meaningless. You post as a troll.

[PantherRob82]

Get it Rob, I don't care about your laughably uninformed opinion anymore. Your stabs in the back are meaningless. You post as a troll.

You care enough to reply. I don't lose sleep over your opinions. ;)

[Wallace]

You care enough to reply. I don't lose sleep over your opinions. ;)

So nice, with friends like you I don't need enemies.

[PantherRob82]

So nice, with friends like you I don't need enemies.

I would recommend:
-telling the truth
-posting as one screen name
-don't make the same personal attacks you claim to have a problem with

You could easily redeem yourself with everyone here by just making a little effort, but you choose not to.

[danefan]

I would recommend:
-telling the truth
-posting as one screen name
-don't make the same personal attacks you claim to have a problem with

You could easily redeem yourself with everyone here by just making a little effort, but you choose not to.


I have a recomendation too Ralph that will easily redeem yourself around here: Go away.

[bluehenbillk]

Only the major opinion polls were done along with the GPI before the NCAA announcement. Fact: All the rest picked which teams were in after they were announced... that may be difficult for some to understand.

When was the GPI released after this week's games? Normally there is a thread discussing it & I'd think as it is (inaccurately) proclaimed as the best predictor of at-large playoff teams you'd want to get some play for it before the selections were made public....

[ursus arctos horribilis]

The claim that the poll ballots were done after the selection is not exactly correct. The vast majority of the ballots were cast prior to the Selection Show so obviously that information could not have been known.

I separated the votes cast prior to the show and did a side by side comparison with what the AGS final Poll has. There were no changes in the teams in the top 25 but a few teams positions by one place up or down.

Here's the comparison if anyone is interested.

Side By Side AGS Poll Comparison (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At367yhHwedudE1YQ2pfNW05YVFJTkRuaFA2clphb lE)

Timestamps could be provided but I don't really care if it is believed or not so take it fwiw. Those that vote in the poll know if they voted before or after and that is good enough for me. In other words, we know we did a good job and trying to say that it doesn't have integrity when we know it does is just a silly premise.

[Professor Chaos]

The claim that the poll ballots were done after the selection is not exactly correct. The vast majority of the ballots were cast prior to the Selection Show so obviously that information could not have been known.

I separated the votes cast prior to the show and did a side by side comparison with what the AGS final Poll has. There were no changes in the teams in the top 25 but a few teams positions by one place up or down.

Here's the comparison if anyone is interested.

Side By Side AGS Poll Comparison (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At367yhHwedudE1YQ2pfNW05YVFJTkRuaFA2clphb lE)

Timestamps could be provided but I don't really care if it is believed or not so take it fwiw. Those that vote in the poll know if they voted before or after and that is good enough for me. In other words, we know we did a good job and trying to say that it doesn't have integrity when we know it does is just a silly premise.
AGS poll still with 9 correct and only the miss was Richmond over Illinois St with Illinois St being the first team to miss the cut according to the AGS Poll.

Not that this "matters" to the committee but it shows that AGS voters think more along the same lines as the committee when it comes to ranking teams and projecting the field.

[PantherRob82]

Using all these facts could cause a.......syntax error. :D

[ursus arctos horribilis]

AGS poll still with 9 correct and only the miss was Richmond over Illinois St with Illinois St being the first team to miss the cut according to the AGS Poll.

Not that this "matters" to the committee but it shows that AGS voters think more along the same lines as the committee when it comes to ranking teams and projecting the field.

I was pretty sure the difference was very slight as most votes were in. Interesting that UNH dropped with the votes that came in after the announcement instead of going up as you'd think it would if people were voting based on that info.

[MR. CHICKEN]

I was pretty sure the difference was very slight as most votes were in. Interesting that UNH dropped with the votes that came in after the announcement instead of going up as you'd think it would if people were voting based on that info.

AN'..EASTERN ILLINOIS....WAS 26TH....NOTTAH LOTTAH PAID ATTN.......TA SELECTION COMMITTEE...ON DAT ONE....DOODLE-DOO!

[ursus arctos horribilis]

AN'..EASTERN ILLINOIS....WAS 26TH....NOTTAH LOTTAH PAID ATTN.......TA SELECTION COMMITTEE...ON DAT ONE....DOODLE-DOO!

Trudat Fhornitty. It appears that the guys responding on the AGS Poll thread that said they had voted later but that the selection committee had no affect on them were not BS'n at all on that point.