Hell has broken loose in the CAA, UNH lost today

[ITmonarch10]

I will say it now, there are going to be at least 2 teams in the CAA that are going to feel snubbed.

Update:

Nova = Autobid
ODU = At Large
JMU = Eliminate

CAA Teams on the hot seat for 1 or 2 more at large spots | Heartbreak is coming even in the best scenario.

Towson
Richmond
UNH

Towson Defeats UNH
Richmond Defeats W&M
Villanova Defeats Delaware
ODU Defeats JMU

[Sam_Kats]

To a 6-4 Towson team. Are they DONE? Just no seed?

Committee has a job ahead of them.

[EKU Toss Sweep]

I haven't seen a final yet, but based on the last score I saw lost could be a bit of an understatement. The last score I saw had UNH getting pounded.

[mcveyrl]

The way things look now, the CAA AB will probably not be known until 1 a.m. or so...

[ITmonarch10]

I haven't seen a final yet, but based on the last score I saw lost could be a bit of an understatement. The last score I saw had UNH getting pounded.

Agreed, Towson just straight up dominated UNH. Honestly, It sucks Towson only route to the playoffs is a W&M win and ODU win.

[atlfcsfan]

So will New Hampshire get snubbed?

8-3, but all the CAA teams cant get in, and you cant put them in over Towson.

[ITmonarch10]

So will New Hampshire get snubbed?

8-3, but all the CAA teams cant get in, and you cant put them in over Towson.

Technically, UNH is the weakest of the 8-3 /7-4 teams.

[CHIP72]

Towson deserves to be in the playoffs at 7-4 IMO. They've gotten better as the season progressed and two of their losses were against I-A teams who coming into today have a combined 3 losses (Louisiana State and Kent State).

[appmountaineer]

Towson does deserve to go. I think UNH may get snubbed after that loss.

[UNH Fanboi]

Unh does not deserve to make they playoffs after today.

[JMUNJ08]

UNH = OUT unless they can do some wonderful math (but think this is now strongly against them)

Towson is SQUARELY on the BUBBLE

[URMite]

Agreed, Towson just straight up dominated UNH. Honestly, It sucks Towson only route to the playoffs is a W&M win and ODU win.

I'm not sure that's only. No idea what SAG will look like at 1:30.

[DJnva]

Richmond, Nova, and ODU wins from here on out give Nova the autobid. Beyond that, I think it's going to Sagarin.

[DoubleH]

Agreed, Towson just straight up dominated UNH. Honestly, It sucks Towson only route to the playoffs is a W&M win and ODU win.

I'm not so sure about that...

[ITmonarch10]

I'm not so sure about that...

My bad.Its in Towson's best interest for Richmond and JMU lose today.


Scenario 1 & 2
ODU ineligible at 7-1, UNH, TOW, UR, NOVA all 6-2 -- All tied teams have not faced each other; highest common opponent…versus ODU (7-1): UNH 0-1, UR 0-1, TOW 0-1, NOVA 1-0 --- NOVA is autobid.

Scenario 3 & 4
ODU ineligible at 7-1, UNH, TOW, NOVA all 6-2 -- TOW is 2-0 versus all tied teams, UNH did not face NOVA but a win for either would make them 1-1 in the group…still not a better winning percentage than TOW in the scenario --- TOW is autobid.

Scenario 12 & 13
ODU ineligible at 7-1, UNH, TOW both 6-2 -- TOW beat UNH head-to-head --- TOW is autobid.

Scenario 5 & 10
JMU, UNH, ODU, TOW all 6-2 -- All tied teams have not faced each other; highest common opponent does not exist; ELO_CHESS…ELO_CHESS rating (released following all Division I games Saturday) --- autobid will be determined upon Sagarin release.

Scenario 6 & 15
JMU, UNH, ODU, TOW, NOVA all 6-2 -- All tied teams have not faced each other; highest common opponent does not exist; ELO_CHESS…ELO_CHESS rating (released following all Division I games Saturday) --- autobid will be determined upon Sagarin release.

Scenario 7 & 11
JMU, UNH, ODU, UR, TOW, NOVA all 6-2 -- All tied teams have not faced each other; highest common opponent does not exist; ELO_CHESS…ELO_CHESS rating (released following all Division I games Saturday) --- autobid will be determined upon Sagarin release.

Scenario 8 & 9
JMU, UNH, ODU, UR, TOW all 6-2 -- All tied teams have not faced each other; highest common opponent does not exist; ELO_CHESS…ELO_CHESS rating (released following all Division I games Saturday) --- autobid will be determined upon Sagarin release.

Scenario 14 & 16
ODU ineligible at 7-1, UNH, UR, TOW all 6-2 -- All tied teams have not faced each other; highest common opponent; ELO_CHESS…versus ODU (7-1): UNH 0-1, UR 0-1, TOW 0-1; versus DEL (3-5): UNH 1-0, UR 1-0, TOW 1-0; versus WM (1-7): UNH 1-0, UR 1-0, TOW 1-0; versus URI (0-8): UNH 1-0, UR 1-0, TOW 1-0; ELO_CHESS rating (released following all Division I games Saturday) ---autobid will be determined upon Sagarin release.

[FargoBison]

Wow the CAA is just a complete mess, good luck to the committee in trying sort it out. If you are taking the best teams I'd go with Towson over both UNH and Richmond.

[stevdock]

Wonder if this mess will help the MVFC get 4 wins in or will it hurt InSU get in?

[DJnva]

Nova and ODU wins give Nova the autobid. Everything else goes to Sagarin.

[344Johnson]

There should be no 7-4 teams in the playoffs this season. Sorry. I can give two ****'s if your team played two FBS games. That is a personal problem.

[DJnva]

There should be no 7-4 teams in the playoffs this season. Sorry. I can give two ****'s if your team played two FBS games. That is a personal problem.

Well, there's a chance that 7-4 Towson team wins the autobid...

[FargoBison]

There should be no 7-4 teams in the playoffs this season. Sorry. I can give two ****'s if your team played two FBS games. That is a personal problem.

The committee should put the best teams in the playoffs...if they are 7-4 then so be it.

[ITmonarch10]

Wonder if this mess will help the MVFC get 4 wins in or will it hurt InSU get in?

Its the entire field preventing the MVFC, CAA, Big Sky, or SoCon from getting 4 teams in. Blame Stony Brook, Sam Houston, Lehigh, Towson, and perception difference of conference strength in polls/computers. I think this year of all years we will find out how much GPI or Polls matter. I wouldn't be surprised though if the committee members just did their own private polling/ratings.

[bostonspider]

UR wins, so that gets rid of scenarios 3,4,5,6,10, 12, 13 & 15

[Mattymc727]

UNH was not a playoff team today, however, I have a feeling we will still sneak into the playoffs. I wouldnt be surprised either way, but I feel like UNH may be on the road in the play-in games.

[VUCats02]

There should be no 7-4 teams in the playoffs this season. Sorry. I can give two ****'s if your team played two FBS games. That is a personal problem.

Doesn't really matter what you think - the NCAA committee will put Towson in, and Towson will win games in the playoffs. Like it or not.

[JMUNJ08]

UR wins, so that gets rid of scenarios 3,4,5,6,10, 12, 13 & 15

Also with UNH W out of the way then we are down to 7 plausible scenarios? Still crazy...

[sgt smash]

Doesn't really matter what you think - the NCAA committee will put Towson in, and Towson will win games in the playoffs. Like it or not.

Unless a punt gets returned the wrong way.

[ITmonarch10]

I don't think Towson gets in unless they get the auto-bid somehow.

[WrenFGun]

I don't see anyway that UNH will get in unless both JMU and Nova lose, and somehow the committee leaves either Wofford or Towson out. They just blew it today.

Their resume is just not very good. That said, I guess if it just comes down to choosing UR and UNH, UNH may get that one. Be interesting to see what happens with the Elo Chess with a loss.

[DJnva]

Also with UNH W out of the way then we are down to 7 plausible scenarios? Still crazy...

Well, technically there's 7 scenarios, but in reality there's only 2:

1--Nova wins/ODU wins and Nova wins the autobid
2--any other combo means it goes to Sagarin.

[CHIP72]

There should be no 7-4 teams in the playoffs this season. Sorry. I can give two ****'s if your team played two FBS games. That is a personal problem.

Okay, a team that impressively beat New Hampshire and Villanova on the road, won its last 4 games (2 of which were the aforementioned UNH and VU wins), and only has losses to two ranked FBS teams (Louisiana State and Kent State, the former of which actually had a hard time handling the Tigers from suburban Baltimore), a top 5 ranked FCS team (Old Dominion), and another FCS playoff contender (James Madison) doesn't deserve any consideration for a playoff bid? That's 100% BS IMO. And I say that despite not being a Towson fan.

[VUCats02]

Okay, a team that impressively beat New Hampshire and Villanova on the road, won its last 4 games (2 of which were the aforementioned UNH and VU wins), and only has losses to two ranked FBS teams (Louisiana State and Kent State, the former of which actually had a hard time handling the Tigers from suburban Baltimore), a top 5 ranked FCS team (Old Dominion), and another FCS playoff contender (James Madison) doesn't deserve any consideration for a playoff bid? That's 100% BS IMO. And I say that despite not being a Towson fan.

I agree with this. Other than ODU, I think Towson is the scariest team in the CAA and has the best chance at winning the whole thing.

[seattlespider]

Looks like Nova is on the verge of a win. Up 10 with the ball and 6:00 left to go in the 4th.

[CHIP72]

Villanova has scored 2 quick touchdowns, one of them a defensive TD. They lead 34-10 late in the 4th quarter.

[CHIP72]

Another defensive touchdown for Villanova. It's now 41-10 with just over a minute left in regulation.

[FargoBison]

So if ODU wins Nova gets it and if JMU wins it's ELO-CHESS right?

[CHIP72]

So if ODU wins Nova gets it and if JMU wins it's ELO-CHESS right?

I think that's right, yes.

One thing is for sure - EVERY team on the playoff bubble excluding JMU themselves should be rooting for an ODU win.

[ITmonarch10]

I think that's right, yes.

One thing is for sure - EVERY team on the playoff bubble excluding JMU themselves should be rooting for an ODU win.

And the SoCon, Central Ark, and Sam Houston are rooting for JMU to win to steal a seed.

[FargoBison]

I think the committee is rooting for ODU, otherwise they have one heck of a mess to sort out.

[Eaglegus2]

I think the committee is rooting for ODU, otherwise they have one heck of a mess to sort out.

I do believe you are on to something. :-)

[MacThor]

I think the committee is rooting for ODU, otherwise they have one heck of a mess to sort out.

They have a mess to sort out either way.....

A JMU win just makes it messier

[FargoBison]

They have a mess to sort out either way.....

A JMU win just makes it messier

True, I guess I should have said a JMU win turns their mess into a nightmare.

[URMite]

I think that's right, yes.

One thing is for sure - EVERY team on the playoff bubble excluding JMU themselves should be rooting for an ODU win.

Except JMU & the ELO_Chess winner (whoever that may be)

[HailSzczur]

Just got back to campus from the game and am watching NBCSN very nervously. Any idea how the Sagarin might shape out if JMU holds this lead?

[VUCats02]

Just got back to campus from the game and am watching NBCSN very nervously. Any idea how the Sagarin might shape out if JMU holds this lead?

Either Richmond or Towson will be the autobid if JMU wins, I'm pretty sure.

[HailSzczur]

Either Richmond or Towson will be the autobid if JMU wins, I'm pretty sure.

Well s**t. Looks like we could be getting screwed..... If only our 2 losses weren't to both of those teams.....
I just have to keep hoping our commanding wins @ODU and vs JMU are enough to carry us. Or ODU works some magic.

[HailSzczur]

I'm sure I'me reposting it, but here's the current ELO Chess rankings for the involved teams:

New Hampshire 58.44
Richmond 56.97
Villanova 55.77
Towson 55.00
James Madison 54.18

Obviously UNH will drop, taking them out of the race. I doubt JMU would jump enough to take the autobid, so that narrows it down to Richmond, Nova, and Towson. Towson is last of the bunch, but had the best win this weekend. Delaware had an ELO Chess rating 6 higher than William and Mary, so it might be possible that Nova makes up the 1.2 points they trail Richmond by? Your guess is just as good as mine, but I have to think the Sagarin favors Towson.

[math123]

Unless a punt gets returned the wrong way.

That makes no sense. That was a Kent State player that ran the wrong way and the play never should have counted. It was a muffed point. We've come a long way since that debacle and Kent State is an ok 10-1 team.

[EKUSteve]

ODU just scored. 21 - 17 JMU

[HailSzczur]

Come on ODU. back within 4

[EKUSteve]

Now they just traded TDs. Warm up the video game. 28 - 24 JMU wiht 4:27 left in the 3d...

[SpeedkingATL]

TD ODU. Offense rolling now.

[HailSzczur]

Committee took a little bit of a breathe just now. A very little breathe. What a game here.

[lknspider]

Either Richmond or Towson will be the autobid if JMU wins, I'm pretty sure.

Hey VU, you're right on. Very few people understand the guidelines being used.

[EKUSteve]

Hey VU, you're right on. Very few people understand the guidelines being used.

The ODU/JMU game has totally turned. ODU is now in the lead.

[Engineer86]

Wow is Heineke good!

[EKUSteve]

Looks like one of the best in our division. ODU up 10 now. Don't envy anyone who plays ODU.

[WrenFGun]

ODU winning would at least give life to another in the group of UR/UNH/Towson/EKU/Lehigh/SBU. Think there's only two spots for the six of them if JMU falls.

IMO, CP, MSU/EWU (whoever hasn't won the at-large), SD. State, Illinois State, Ga. Southern, Wofford, Sam Houston State and ODU are in. At least one of Richmond/UNH/Towson is in one of those spots, and then one of those three + EKU/Lehigh/SBU would be competing for the last bid, IMO.

If JMU wins, they basically eat one of those two spots I'd think.

[WrenFGun]

Believe ODU just stopped JMU on 4th and 1. No idea how much time is left, but I'd guess maybe 7-8?

[Engineer86]

ODU winning would at least give life to another in the group of UR/UNH/Towson/EKU/Lehigh/SBU. Think there's only two spots for the six of them if JMU falls.

IMO, CP, MSU/EWU (whoever hasn't won the at-large), SD. State, Illinois State, Ga. Southern, Wofford, Sam Houston State and ODU are in. At least one of Richmond/UNH/Towson is in one of those spots, and then one of those three + EKU/Lehigh/SBU would be competing for the last bid, IMO.

If JMU wins, they basically eat one of those two spots I'd think.

Good analysis, I would argue the three CAA teams, should be at the top of the list of six. Will they take four from the CAA though.

[WrenFGun]

Good analysis, I would argue the three CAA teams, should be at the top of the list of six. Will they take four from the CAA though.

Not sure! I definitely think they'll take 3, and I have no idea which will be third after Nova/ODU, depending on how the JMU score winds. Towson is 1-0 v the other 2 in playoff contention, but didn't play UR. UNH is 1-1, losing to Towson but beating UR, while UR is 0-1, losing to UNH. I kind of feel like Richmond's overall resume is the best, though, so I really have no idea. And you have the thing with Towson having 7 wins and UNH having the H2H over UR. Bananas. I still KIND of think if UNH/UR at 8 division wins are being reviewed while be co-CAA champs, I think you have to start looking at all 8-3 teams, no? That includes Wofford (though I think they're in because they won the SoCon split) and SD. State/Ill. State, who aren't co-champs. I don't think I'd feel good with these playoffs unless I had 9 wins or was a co-champ not from the CAA with 8 DI wins.

[Engineer86]

Not sure! I definitely think they'll take 3, and I have no idea which will be third after Nova/ODU, depending on how the JMU score winds. Towson is 1-0 v the other 2 in playoff contention, but didn't play UR. UNH is 1-1, losing to Towson but beating UR, while UR is 0-1, losing to UNH. I kind of feel like Richmond's overall resume is the best, though, so I really have no idea. And you have the thing with Towson having 7 wins and UNH having the H2H over UR. Bananas. I still KIND of think if UNH/UR at 8 division wins are being reviewed while be co-CAA champs, I think you have to start looking at all 8-3 teams, no? That includes Wofford (though I think they're in because they won the SoCon split) and SD. State/Ill. State, who aren't co-champs. I don't think I'd feel good with these playoffs unless I had 9 wins or was a co-champ not from the CAA with 8 DI wins.

Game virtually over Nova AQ

[EKUSteve]

Game virtually over Nova AQ

Thorpe sacked on 4th down. ODU in the victory formation. Nova gets the auto bid. Will be an intersting selection Sunday.

[WrenFGun]

Yep, JMU will lose to ODU as Thorpe was just sacked on fourth. We will see! Looks like TECHNICALLY every major conference 8 W DI team COULD get in, but that'd leave Towson (who just trounced UNH) out, along with 10-1 Lehigh, 8-2 SBU and 8-3 EKU.

[UNH Fanboi]

Towson should get in over UNH and Richmond. UNH might have a case for getting in over Richmond because of the H2H. There's a chance both get left out.

[WrenFGun]

Towson should get in over UNH and Richmond. UNH might have a case for getting in over Richmond because of the H2H. There's a chance both get left out.

Towson is the best of the 3. That said, we'll see how 7-4 treats them. The other teams with 7 DI wins are actually 3 loss teams v. DI (Wofford and Sam). I still think Wofford needs to keep their eyes peeled as losers of 2 of 3 entering the playoffs. UNH got rocked and isn't a legitimate championship contender, but they are 6-1 in their last 7. I think the committee may find a way to get ALL co-champs in, which would mean the following for at-larges: SHSU, Wofford, Ga. Southern, UNH, Towson, UR, ODU, EWU, CP, SDST.

Not saying it's a CERTAINTY and they've certainly ignored co-champs previously, but just a thing to note.

[UNH Fanboi]

Towson is the best of the 3. That said, we'll see how 7-4 treats them. The other teams with 7 DI wins are actually 3 loss teams v. DI (Wofford and Sam). I still think Wofford needs to keep their eyes peeled as losers of 2 of 3 entering the playoffs. UNH got rocked and isn't a legitimate championship contender, but they are 6-1 in their last 7. I think the committee may find a way to get ALL co-champs in, which would mean the following for at-larges: SHSU, Wofford, Ga. Southern, UNH, Towson, UR, ODU, EWU, CP, SDST.

Not saying it's a CERTAINTY and they've certainly ignored co-champs previously, but just a thing to note.

I don't know if the committee can really say no to a 10-1 Lehigh. I would love the be a fly on the wall for that discussion. Stony Brook is also a wild card because of their FBS win.

[WrenFGun]

I don't know if the committee can really say no to a 10-1 Lehigh. I would love the be a fly on the wall for that discussion. Stony Brook is also a wild card because of their FBS win.

Stony Brook is just 8-2 (D2) coming from a bad conference. FBS win or not, I don't see 8-2 SBU getting in over a power conference team with 8 DI wins.

[TSU86]

My head hurts from all this stuff.
We are playing as well as anyone in the country, and we're capable of beating anyone .... but those two FBS games could've done us in.

[UNH Fanboi]

Stony Brook is just 8-2 (D2) coming from a bad conference. FBS win or not, I don't see 8-2 SBU getting in over a power conference team with 8 DI wins.

Yes, but they have a dominating FBS win (albeit over Army), a win over the PL champ and only 1 FCS loss. That's not a shabby resume.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

My head hurts from all this stuff.
We are playing as well as anyone in the country, and we're capable of beating anyone .... but those two FBS games could've done us in.

I agree. The CAA team playing the best football will probably stay home for the 2 FBS games.