All The Games ad Teams that Matter now

[Go Apps]

ASU - bye hoping for a Fuman win and several losses to grab a seed and the Autobid
Stoney Brook - bye hoping for some love and a bid on Sunday
EKU - bye on the outside looking in- hoping a lot of CAA teams lose for sure!


GAMES THAT MATTER (after a full season 21 games on the final weekend matter!)

Citadel vs Furman - Citadel cannot make the playoffs but this game determines the Socon AB
N Hampshire vs Towson - A Towson win gives them the AB, a UNH win gives them a seed
Samford vs Kentucky - A Samford win makes things interesting and maybe they steal Wofford's bid
Wofford vs S Carolina - a win here gets them secured in the postseason - why are we all feeling like they may not make it?
GSU vs Georgia - a win here gets them a seed - no way
Richmond vs W&M - a win keeps them alive a loss ends the season
ODU vs JMU - an ODU likely gives them a seed a loss will get them in the playoffs but not a seed - a JMU win keeps them alive
Ind St vs Young St - an Ind St win keeps them alive for a berth
Lehigh vs Lafayette - a win keeps their slim hopes alive a second straight loss will end their season
Liberty vs VMI - win keeps them alive for AB and they hope CCU loses - a loss sends Stoney to the playoffs
CCU vs Char Southern - a CCU win and a Liberty win gives them the AB
Villanova vs Delaware - a Villanova win keeps them alive - a loss ends their season
Tenn St vs UT Martin - a win by either team keeps them alive - but Tenn St would have a better chance
Wagner vs Dusquene - Wagner win secures the AB
Colgate vs Fordham - game doesn't matter
NDSU vs Ill St - both are in the field - a loss by NDSU will likely drop in the seeding and open the door for another to win the AB
Sam Houston St vs Texas A&M - sorry but a loss here lands them with a 7-1 DII record no way they get a s seed
Montana vs Mont St - a loss by MSU will likely take them out of the seed discussion
E Ill vs C. Ark - the playoffs begin this now - both are in - if E Illinois wins I think we see another team from the OVC for sure this is a huge game for the OVC
Cal Poly vs NAU - this could be a winner take all contest - CP really needs the victory the loser here will be sweating this one out
E Washington vs Port St - EWU needs a victory to possibly keep their seed hopes alive a loss will derail those thoughts
S Dak vs S Dakota St - SDSU victory keeps them alive a loss ends the season and the pollsters are giving them no love

[Professor Chaos]

USD at SDSU is also important. SDSU needs a win. Also, Towson needs more than just a win to clinch the CAA AB don't they? Isn't there all sorts of permutations of 6-2 teams if UNH can't win it outright on Saturday?

[danefan]

Albany vs. CCSU

Albany loses and Wagner wins the AQ no matter what Wagner does.

[superman7515]

USD at SDSU is also important. SDSU needs a win. Also, Towson needs more than just a win to clinch the CAA AB don't they? Isn't there all sorts of permutations of 6-2 teams if UNH can't win it outright on Saturday?

Yeah, Towson does not get the AQ just by winning.

[superman7515]

MTFan4Life does a good job of explaining it all here:
http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?123354-Cracking-the-CAA-AQ-scenarios

There are 5 teams that have varying levels of a chance to win the AQ. New Hampshire has the easiest path, win and you win the AQ. Richmond needs the most to happen.

[Go Apps]

Fixed I think if Towson wins they win..could be wrong

[roTSU50]

ASU - bye hoping for a Fuman win and several losses to grab a seed and the Autobid
Stoney Brook - bye hoping for some love and a bid on Sunday
EKU - bye on the outside looking in- hoping a lot of CAA teams lose for sure!


GAMES THAT MATTER (after a full season 21 games on the final weekend matter!)

Citadel vs Furman - Citadel cannot make the playoffs but this game determines the Socon AB
N Hampshire vs Towson - A Towson win gives them the AB, a UNH win gives them a seed
Samford vs Kentucky - A Samford win makes things interesting and maybe they steal Wofford's bid
Wofford vs S Carolina - a win here gets them secured in the postseason - why are we all feeling like they may not make it?
GSU vs Georgia - a win here gets them a seed - no way
Richmond vs W&M - a win keeps them alive a loss ends the season
ODU vs JMU - an ODU likely gives them a seed a loss will get them in the playoffs but not a seed - a JMU win keeps them alive
Ind St vs Young St - an Ind St win keeps them alive for a berth
Lehigh vs Lafayette - a win keeps their slim hopes alive a second straight loss will end their season
Liberty vs VMI - win keeps them alive for AB and they hope CCU loses - a loss sends Stoney to the playoffs
CCU vs Char Southern - a CCU win and a Liberty win gives them the AB
Villanova vs Delaware - a Villanova win keeps them alive - a loss ends their season
Tenn St vs UT Martin - a win by either team keeps them alive - but Tenn St would have a better chance
Wagner vs Dusquene - Wagner win secures the AB
Colgate vs Fordham - game doesn't matter
NDSU vs Ill St - both are in the field - a loss by NDSU will likely drop in the seeding and open the door for another to win the AB
Sam Houston St vs Texas A&M - sorry but a loss here lands them with a 7-1 DII record no way they get a s seed
Montana vs Mont St - a loss by MSU will likely take them out of the seed discussion
E Ill vs C. Ark - the playoffs begin this now - both are in - if E Illinois wins I think we see another team from the OVC for sure this is a huge game for the OVC
Cal Poly vs NAU - this could be a winner take all contest - CP really needs the victory the loser here will be sweating this one out
E Washington vs Port St - EWU needs a victory to possibly keep their seed hopes alive a loss will derail those thoughts

Not Sure why an 8-3 EKU would be considered higher than UT Martin or TSU. Martin and TSU beat EKU and would be higher in the OVC rankings than EKU. Might not even matter either way though.

[knucklehead]

Liberty has been up for At Large bids several times and just not gotten the bid. So it would just be justice to back into the auto bid with a win at VMI and CSU knocking off Coastal. Man it would be awesome. CCU and the Big South would be so mad! My guess is Stony will not get an at large since they are in the big south and the same situation as LU several times. And I just don't see the committe giving Big South 2 playoff teams.

[MTfan4life]

Fixed I think if Towson wins they win..could be wrong

Towson needs to win and essentially needs to hope that at least both James Madison and Villanova CAA lose and possibly Richmond as well. It's possible, but if Villanova or James Madison win, they'd have the tiebreaking power of having a win over ODU. Essentially, Towson needs a win and a lot of help to secure the auto-bid.

[WrenFGun]

ASU - bye hoping for a Fuman win and several losses to grab a seed and the Autobid
Stoney Brook - bye hoping for some love and a bid on Sunday
EKU - bye on the outside looking in- hoping a lot of CAA teams lose for sure!


GAMES THAT MATTER (after a full season 21 games on the final weekend matter!)

Citadel vs Furman - Citadel cannot make the playoffs but this game determines the Socon AB
N Hampshire vs Towson - A Towson win gives them the AB, a UNH win gives them a seed
Samford vs Kentucky - A Samford win makes things interesting and maybe they steal Wofford's bid
Wofford vs S Carolina - a win here gets them secured in the postseason - why are we all feeling like they may not make it?
GSU vs Georgia - a win here gets them a seed - no way
Richmond vs W&M - a win keeps them alive a loss ends the season
ODU vs JMU - an ODU likely gives them a seed a loss will get them in the playoffs but not a seed - a JMU win keeps them alive
Ind St vs Young St - an Ind St win keeps them alive for a berth
Lehigh vs Lafayette - a win keeps their slim hopes alive a second straight loss will end their season
Liberty vs VMI - win keeps them alive for AB and they hope CCU loses - a loss sends Stoney to the playoffs
CCU vs Char Southern - a CCU win and a Liberty win gives them the AB
Villanova vs Delaware - a Villanova win keeps them alive - a loss ends their season
Tenn St vs UT Martin - a win by either team keeps them alive - but Tenn St would have a better chance
Wagner vs Dusquene - Wagner win secures the AB
Colgate vs Fordham - game doesn't matter
NDSU vs Ill St - both are in the field - a loss by NDSU will likely drop in the seeding and open the door for another to win the AB
Sam Houston St vs Texas A&M - sorry but a loss here lands them with a 7-1 DII record no way they get a s seed
Montana vs Mont St - a loss by MSU will likely take them out of the seed discussion
E Ill vs C. Ark - the playoffs begin this now - both are in - if E Illinois wins I think we see another team from the OVC for sure this is a huge game for the OVC
Cal Poly vs NAU - this could be a winner take all contest - CP really needs the victory the loser here will be sweating this one out
E Washington vs Port St - EWU needs a victory to possibly keep their seed hopes alive a loss will derail those thoughts
S Dak vs S Dakota St - SDSU victory keeps them alive a loss ends the season and the pollsters are giving them no love

I agree with all but Wofford and Sam; be interesting how the committee handles 7 DI win teams. Of course, if Wofford and Sam win, they are in and maybe seeds based on SC/A&M. I think if they lose they may be in/out depending on how some of the other teams do going for 8 DI wins.

[LUHawker]

I know that Craig Haley at the Sports Network has created this controversy around Lehigh not getting in at 10-1, but Haley hasn't understood the playoff selection process since taking his post. Let me say it clearly here, since many on this board have bought into this theory: if Lehigh wins on Saturday at Lafayette, they are in. No ifs, and or buts about it. The Committee values DI wins most when looking at at-large teams and Lehigh acquits itself well on this front. Its SOS doesn't help is year, but how do they possibly leave out a 10 win team from an auto-bid conference, especially considering its recent playoff success? Answer: they aren't going to.

Furthermore, Mr. Haley has NEVER had a high opinion of Lehigh in his writing so this is nothing new.

[Professor Chaos]

I know that Craig Haley at the Sports Network has created this controversy around Lehigh not getting in at 10-1, but Haley hasn't understood the playoff selection process since taking his post. Let me say it clearly here, since many on this board have bought into this theory: if Lehigh wins on Saturday at Lafayette, they are in. No ifs, and or buts about it. The Committee values DI wins most when looking at at-large teams and Lehigh acquits itself well on this front. Its SOS doesn't help is year, but how do they possibly leave out a 10 win team from an auto-bid conference, especially considering its recent playoff success? Answer: they aren't going to.

Furthermore, Mr. Haley has NEVER had a high opinion of Lehigh in his writing so this is nothing new.
The argument isn't going to be "can we leave a 10 win team out of the playoffs?" the argument will be "do we choose a 10 win Lehigh, a 9 win SBU/TSU, or an 8 win Villanova/Cal Poly/SDSU?"

This is an extraordinary year in terms of the strength on the playoff bubble and there will be some teams left out with resumes that have never been left out before. Just like a 10 win PL team has never been left out I doubt if a 8 win CAA team has ever been left out. One of those things will likely happen this year for the first time ever.

[Go Apps]

Not Sure why an 8-3 EKU would be considered higher than UT Martin or TSU. Martin and TSU beat EKU and would be higher in the OVC rankings than EKU. Might not even matter either way though.

Agree but pollsters seem to like EKU for some reason

[danefan]

I know that Craig Haley at the Sports Network has created this controversy around Lehigh not getting in at 10-1, but Haley hasn't understood the playoff selection process since taking his post. Let me say it clearly here, since many on this board have bought into this theory: if Lehigh wins on Saturday at Lafayette, they are in. No ifs, and or buts about it. The Committee values DI wins most when looking at at-large teams and Lehigh acquits itself well on this front. Its SOS doesn't help is year, but how do they possibly leave out a 10 win team from an auto-bid conference, especially considering its recent playoff success? Answer: they aren't going to.

Furthermore, Mr. Haley has NEVER had a high opinion of Lehigh in his writing so this is nothing new.

You're posturing as much as Haley just doesn't get the process. But I agree that Haley's projections have never been great.

I'll say without any doubt though that if Lehigh does get in, and let me repeat that I have no real prediction either way, they will have one of, if not the weakest at-large resumes in the history of the FCS playoffs.

[Go Apps]

Liberty has been up for At Large bids several times and just not gotten the bid. So it would just be justice to back into the auto bid with a win at VMI and CSU knocking off Coastal. Man it would be awesome. CCU and the Big South would be so mad! My guess is Stony will not get an at large since they are in the big south and the same situation as LU several times. And I just don't see the committe giving Big South 2 playoff teams.

I agree with you 2 teams from the big south seems unlikely but the pollsters are giving plenty of love to Stoney

[Go Apps]

I agree with all but Wofford and Sam; be interesting how the committee handles 7 DI win teams. Of course, if Wofford and Sam win, they are in and maybe seeds based on SC/A&M. I think if they lose they may be in/out depending on how some of the other teams do going for 8 DI wins.

Regardless I think Sam is in - Wofford well we have been here to many times and know how this story ends - WOFFED AGAIN IMO not this time

[LUHawker]

The argument isn't going to be "can we leave a 10 win team out of the playoffs?" the argument will be "do we choose a 10 win Lehigh, a 9 win SBU/TSU, or an 8 win Villanova/Cal Poly/SDSU?"

This is an extraordinary year in terms of the strength on the playoff bubble and there will be some teams left out with resumes that have never been left out before. Just like a 10 win PL team has never been left out I doubt if a 8 win CAA team has ever been left out. One of those things will likely happen this year for the first time ever.

That is a fair statement. However, let me pose a retort to your statement in a somewhat inverse fashion. Let's say for arguments sake that Lehigh's series with UNH continued this year and that they replaced one of the two weak OOC games (either CCSU or Columbia) and let's assume that Lehigh lost, leaving Lehigh at 9-2, but having a better SOS. Is that loss to a much stronger team better than a win against a weaker one? Under my hypothetical scenario, I think Lehigh would still be in the conversation for an at-large at 9-2 and so how do we reconcile a loss to a stronger team with win vs. a weaker one. the optics might suggest that the loss is better because SOS improves, but how can a loss be better than a win (assuming all FCS competition)?

[danefan]

That is a fair statement. However, let me pose a retort to your statement in a somewhat inverse fashion. Let's say for arguments sake that Lehigh's series with UNH continued this year and that they replaced one of the two weak OOC games (either CCSU or Columbia) and let's assume that Lehigh lost, leaving Lehigh at 9-2, but having a better SOS. Is that loss to a much stronger team better than a win against a weaker one? Under my hypothetical scenario, I think Lehigh would still be in the conversation for an at-large at 9-2 and so how do we reconcile a loss to a stronger team with win vs. a weaker one. the optics might suggest that the loss is better because SOS improves, but how can a loss be better than a win (assuming all FCS competition)?

Lehigh at 9-2 with a loss to Colgate and UNH is equal to or behind Albany at 9-2 with a loss to YSU and Wagner, IMO.

Albany in that hypothetical would have had a win over a team that beat Lehigh (Colgate) and a win over a CAA team in Maine.
Lehigh wouldn't have either.

Neither team would get in.

[LUHawker]

Lehigh at 9-2 with a loss to Colgate and UNH is equal to or behind Albany at 9-2 with a loss to YSU and Wagner, IMO.

Albany in that hypothetical would have had a win over a team that beat Lehigh (Colgate) and a win over a CAA team in Maine.
Lehigh wouldn't have either.

Neither team would get in.

No offense Dane, but I wasn't composing that scenario to compare LU to SUNY-Albany; rather, I was posing it as a hypothetical to see how that scenario would be interpreted. Why would a loss with improved SOS be deemed better than a win with weaker SOS, which is embedded in the debate around LU.

Separately, what happens if Liberty somehow wins the Big South AQ? Does LU's SOS now suddenly improve? Interesting questions.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

That is a fair statement. However, let me pose a retort to your statement in a somewhat inverse fashion. Let's say for arguments sake that Lehigh's series with UNH continued this year and that they replaced one of the two weak OOC games (either CCSU or Columbia) and let's assume that Lehigh lost, leaving Lehigh at 9-2, but having a better SOS. Is that loss to a much stronger team better than a win against a weaker one? Under my hypothetical scenario, I think Lehigh would still be in the conversation for an at-large at 9-2 and so how do we reconcile a loss to a stronger team with win vs. a weaker one. the optics might suggest that the loss is better because SOS improves, but how can a loss be better than a win (assuming all FCS competition)?

Lehigh's schedule this year is NOT much, if any different than last years. I think Lehigh would have had a good shot last year at 9-2. They got in at 9-2 in 2004 after losing to the two best teams they played, Villanova and Lafayette. They had a solid win over Colgate and not much else. Their OOC wins were over non-scholly Albany, SBU along with a bad Liberty team and a mediocre Yale squad. Not only did they get in but the earned a first round home game against JMU.

[danefan]

No offense Dane, but I wasn't composing that scenario to compare LU to SUNY-Albany; rather, I was posing it as a hypothetical to see how that scenario would be interpreted. Why would a loss with improved SOS be deemed better than a win with weaker SOS, which is embedded in the debate around LU.

Separately, what happens if Liberty somehow wins the Big South AQ? Does LU's SOS now suddenly improve? Interesting questions.

I know you weren't, but I was using Albany as a baseline for comparsion to a 9-2 Lehigh with a loss to UNH instead of a win over Columbia.

I don't think Albany deserves a bid at 9-2 and I don't think Lehigh would either.

[danefan]

Lehigh's schedule this year is NOT much, if any different than last years. I think Lehigh would have had a good shot last year at 9-2. They got in at 9-2 in 2004 after losing to the two best teams they played, Villanova and Lafayette. They had a solid win over Colgate and not much else. Their OOC wins were over non-scholly Albany, SBU along with a bad Liberty team and a mediocre Yale squad. Not only did they get in but the earned a first round home game against JMU.

But again, this year is incredibly different from year's past. The Big Sky going to a round-robin schedule and the MVFC havig a great year has a ton of teams from power conferences with 8 DI wins. That was not the case in 2004.

[LUHawker]

I know you weren't, but I was using Albany as a baseline for comparsion to a 9-2 Lehigh with a loss to UNH instead of a win over Columbia.

I don't think Albany deserves a bid at 9-2 and I don't think Lehigh would either.

Still not answering the question, just giving me more Albany baseline comparisons. What say you on the hypothetical scenario on its own?

[BEAR]

So if UCA loses against EIU and the OVC gets 2 IN, would that take away from Sam making it or would another conference have to lose a spot? Or would that scenario happen anyway?

[danefan]

Still not answering the question, just giving me more Albany baseline comparisons. What say you on the hypothetical scenario on its own?

I don't think it puts Lehigh in any better position. In my opinion, Lehigh with that hypothetical 9-2 record is in the same position as with a 10-1 record with this year's schedule. That assumes the loss to UNH isn't a toss-up overtime official decision game like last year.

The 9-2 has a stronger SOS but an additional loss. Cancels each other out, IMO.

[Professor Chaos]

So if UCA loses against EIU and the OVC gets 2 IN, would that take away from Sam making it or would another conference have to lose a spot? Or would that scenario happen anyway?
EIU already has the OVC autobid, I don't think them beating UCA would make a lot of difference in the resumes of the OVC bubble teams other than UTM who beat EIU.

[URMite]

Agree but pollsters seem to like EKU for some reason

It's not just pollsters. Check out the computer portion of the GPI:
Rank Team
1 N Dakota St
2 Montana St
3 Sam Houston St
4 E Washington
5 Indiana St
6 Illinois St
7 S Dakota St
8 Ga Southern
9 Cal Poly
10 Cent Arkansas
11 Northern Arizona
12 E Kentucky
13 E Illinois
14 Appalachian St
15 Old Dominion
16 S Illinois
17 Wofford
18 Northern Iowa
19 Youngstown St
20 Towson
21 Villanova
22 Richmond
23 TN Martin
24 New Hampshire
25 Samford
26 Stony Brook
27 Southern Utah
28 Tennessee St
29 Chattanooga
30 Sacramento St
31 McNeese St
32 James Madison
33 Jacksonville St
34 Missouri St
35 Harvard
36 North Dakota
37 Montana
38 Bethune-Cookman
39 Murray St
40 Coastal Carolina
41 The Citadel
42 Albany
43 SF Austin
44 Colgate
45 Portland St
46 N Colorado
47 Lehigh
48 UC Davis
49 Delaware
50 Maine
51 Furman
52 SE Louisiana
53 Princeton
54 Wagner

[URMite]

EIU already has the OVC autobid, I don't think them beating UCA would make a lot of difference in the resumes of the OVC bubble teams other than UTM who beat EIU.

Well according to Go APPs, the committee looks at the resume of the Conference nort the resume of the individual teams. :p

[EKUSteve]

Not Sure why an 8-3 EKU would be considered higher than UT Martin or TSU. Martin and TSU beat EKU and would be higher in the OVC rankings than EKU. Might not even matter either way though.

EKU beat Martin at Martin.

[Maroons]

EKU beat Martin at Martin.

The last three teams in the hunt for an OVC at-large birth leave an interesting scenario and I think Saturday's TSU/UTM game will eliminate one of the three teams. Consider the case for each team:
UTM - OOC wins against SELA & Memphis, Losses to EKU, @NIU, @TTU (OT), only OVC team to beat autobid EIU
TSU - OOC wins against FAMU, Jackson State, APB, Bethune-Cookman, Lost 2 of last 3 (JSU & Murray), beat EKU, did not play EIU
EKU - Losses to Purdue, @TSU, EIU, OOC win over Coastal Carolina, win over Martin, aforementioned GPI love

It could be one of those years where not one of these three teams distinguishes itself in what is already expected to be a crowded field. Committed could make a case to include any one of three, however.

[TTUEagles]

Not to pile on TSU here - who's going through some unfair and unexpected difficult times, but they are one controversial play away from losing three straight. Scored a TD/PAT at the last second to beat 3-7 TTU at home. All that says is they aren't playing well to end the season, if that matters to the committee. However, IMO, if they beat UTM, they deserve some strong consideration. I think EKU gets in, though, along with EIU.