Playoffs 'Til I Die: Picking the FCS Playoff Bracket, Week 11

[Lehigh Football Nation]

After a lot of coffee and a lot of math, I break down all the tiebreakers and have a playoff projection in my latest column:

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/509-playoffs-til-i-die-picking-the-fcs-playoff-bracket-week-11

James Madison, for the first time, makes my Field of 20.

[Engineer86]

No comment on if Lehigh loses to Colgate? That confident in Lehigh or don't want to comment on Lehigh's chances at 10-1?

[BEAR]

Taking care of business on the field: Love this photo!

http://ucasports.com/images/2012/11/4/rp_primary_conque_trophy_WEB98.jpg

[KATS_21]

How accurate where you last year in selecting the field?

You are going to get viewed as a fraud since you have the Kats with the #2 seed.

[danefan]

After a lot of coffee and a lot of math, I break down all the tiebreakers and have a playoff projection in my latest column:

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/509-playoffs-til-i-die-picking-the-fcs-playoff-bracket-week-11

James Madison, for the first time, makes my Field of 20.

Monmouth cannot win the NEC AQ.

http://blogs.app.com/hawks/2012/11/04/mu-football-26/


Hawks eliminated from NEC race…

Despite Albany’s loss to Wagner Saturday MU cannot tie (or win) for the NEC title according to Ralph Ventre of the NEC because:

1. Monmouth can’t catch Wagner. Wagner already has six wins and Monmouth can only get to five because they aren’t playing that CCSU game (MU turned down the option to play it either yesterday or today at CCSU).

2. The NEC has to name the recipient of its automatic bid by the morning on Nov. 18. There is no way Monmouth can play 3 NEC games by then.


If Wagner wins on the 17th they're in.
If Albany wins out and Wagner loses, Albany is in.
If Albany loses either of the remaining two NEC games, Wagner is in.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

What if CCSU forfeits the game between now and then? Then the win total is the same, 6 wins, and Monmouth wins the tiebreaker (either 1-1 in head-to-head, or Wagner's loss to Duquesne when Albany/Wagner/Monmouth are 1-1 against each other).

That would be OUTRAGEOUS if Wagner got the autobid with tied 2-loss teams with Monmouth winning the head-to-head!

[danefan]

What if CCSU forfeits the game between now and then? Then the win total is the same, 6 wins, and Monmouth wins the tiebreaker (either 1-1 in head-to-head, or Wagner's loss to Duquesne when Albany/Wagner/Monmouth are 1-1 against each other).

That would be OUTRAGEOUS if Wagner got the autobid with tied 2-loss teams with Monmouth winning the head-to-head!

The game was cancelled. CCSU isn't going to forfeit the game. Its done and settled and it was Monmouth's call. It sucks for the kids but its the right thing given the circumstances.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

The NEC had better hope Wagner beats Duquesne in the final week of the season, making everything moot. And while it was right to cancel the game, it's absolutely not right to deny Monmouth a chance at the autobid because of the cancelled game.

Suppose Albany and Wagner lose to Duquesne, and Monmouth wins out. Monmouth would be denied the league championship and autobid with the same 2-loss record as Wagner and the head-to-head victory?

[Lehigh'98]

No one is going to complain much. At best Monmouth can have 6 D1 wins. That's not a playoff caliber team.

[danefan]

The NEC had better hope Wagner beats Duquesne in the final week of the season, making everything moot. And while it was right to cancel the game, it's absolutely not right to deny Monmouth a chance at the autobid because of the cancelled game.

Suppose Albany and Wagner lose to Duquesne, and Monmouth wins out. Monmouth would be denied the league championship and autobid with the same 2-loss record as Wagner and the head-to-head victory?


Again, the NEC did not make the decision. Mnomouth did. The NEC gave Monmouth every feasible chance to play the CCSU game and it didn't work out for Monmouth, rightfully so.

No one has an issue except for you.

[WileECoyote06]

The other is McNeese State (6-3, 3-3), who sits at 5 Division I wins but has the opportunity for two more, one on the road vs. FBS Texas-San Antonio and at home vs. 3-7 Lamar. If the Cowboys beat the 5-4 Roadrunners this weekend, would the FCS playoff committee deny a team who beat two FBS teams in the same season with 7 Division I wins? A win over UTSA coupled with their 27-21 win at Middle Tennessee State, I think, would absolutely put them in the field.

Didn't really think about this. Great commentary.

[aceinthehole]

Again, the NEC did not make the decision. Mnomouth did. The NEC gave Monmouth every feasible chance to play the CCSU game and it didn't work out for Monmouth, rightfully so.

No one has an issue except for you.

Exactly! The storm crushed the Jersey Shore and a football game just wasn't that important, period.

CCSU offered to host and even postpone the game until Sunday. Monmouth decided that its student safety and welfare was more important than a football game. It was 100% Monmouth's decision and the league and opponent were fully understanding and wiling to do anything reasonable to make the game happen. Sure it sucks for Monmouth, but I doubt those kids who may have had familiy lose their homes really care that much about this game.

If Wagner can win their final game, it will be a great story for another school and community that weathered Sandy's destruction. I'm rooting for Wagner but even if they lose and Albany drops 1 of its final 2 games, no one is shedding a tear that Monmouth didn't have a chance to be co-champs.

I'm not going to bother to do the scenarios, but are we even sure that Monmouth could win the NEC AQ in any 3-way tiebreaker scenairos (assuming Wagner, UA, and Monmouth finished at 6-2 in the NEC)? I think LFN is making this a bigger issue than it really is.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Exactly! The storm crushed the Jersey Shore and a football game just wasn't that important, period.

CCSU offered to host and even postpone the game until Sunday. Monmouth decided that its student safety and welfare was more important than a football game. It was 100% Monmouth's decision and the league and opponent were fully understanding and wiling to do anything reasonable to make the game happen. Sure it sucks for Monmouth, but I doubt those kids who may have had familiy lose their homes really care that much about this game.

If Wagner can win their final game, it will be a great story for another school and community that weathered Sandy's destruction. I'm rooting for Wagner but even if they lose and Albany drops 1 of its final 2 games, no one is shedding a tear that Monmouth didn't have a chance to be co-champs.

I'm not going to bother to do the scenarios, but are we even sure that Monmouth could win the NEC AQ in any 3-way tiebreaker scenairos (assuming Wagner, UA, and Monmouth finished at 6-2 in the NEC)? I think LFN is making this a bigger issue than it really is.

They absolutely would. I outline it in the article.

[WrenFGun]

These are the EXACT 20 teams I project to make the playoffs right now, so this is a +1 from me!

[Pard4Life]

No comment on if Lehigh loses to Colgate? That confident in Lehigh or don't want to comment on Lehigh's chances at 10-1?

LFN is 100% confident in a Lehigh win, because Lehigh is the "good guys", and good guys never lose. It would be diligent of him to wager Lehigh's positioning if they lose to Colgate, and if they lose to Lafayette as well. Does 9-2 get a bid?

[asucrutch23]

These are the EXACT 20 teams I project to make the playoffs right now, so this is a +1 from me!

Same 20 for me as well although I have the last couple of weeks playing out a bit differently than LFN, so my seeds aren't close to his. We only share Old Dominion and Eastern Washington.

[Jacked_Rabbit]

I would LOVE for things to play out like this! Once the Bison fans catch word that you don't have them picked to win the Valley AQ or be seeded, this thread is going to be kidnapped and held for ransom until it eventually dies...

5... 4... 3... 2...

[URMite]

Didn't really think about this. Great commentary.

"The other is McNeese State (6-3, 3-3), who sits at 5 Division I wins but has the opportunity for two more, one on the road vs. FBS Texas-San Antonio and at home vs. 3-7 Lamar. If the Cowboys beat the 5-4 Roadrunners this weekend, would the FCS playoff committee deny a team who beat two FBS teams in the same season with 7 Division I wins? A win over UTSA coupled with their 27-21 win at Middle Tennessee State, I think, would absolutely put them in the field."

I had been touting UTSA as a FBS team, but some Texas State supporters say that they are counted as FCS for both FCS & FBS opponents, even with 70+ scholarships. Is that right?

[Sam_Kats]

Not sure - UTSA & TxSt leaving for FBS is part of the reason we're in this scheduling nightmare.

[McNeese72]

The other is McNeese State (6-3, 3-3), who sits at 5 Division I wins but has the opportunity for two more, one on the road vs. FBS Texas-San Antonio and at home vs. 3-7 Lamar. If the Cowboys beat the 5-4 Roadrunners this weekend, would the FCS playoff committee deny a team who beat two FBS teams in the same season with 7 Division I wins? A win over UTSA coupled with their 27-21 win at Middle Tennessee State, I think, would absolutely put them in the field.



Didn't really think about this. Great commentary.

Shhhhhhh! We are in stealth mode right now but Cowboys players have hung their hats on finishing 8-3 and letting the committtee decide their fate. But this week's game with UTSA might be a tough one. UTSA is high right now because they played very well for 3/4's of the game with La. Tech. If we get by them, then we have Lamar in a little bit of a rivalry game. But the Cowboy players are wanting to take care of business.


Doc

[Lehigh Football Nation]

"The other is McNeese State (6-3, 3-3), who sits at 5 Division I wins but has the opportunity for two more, one on the road vs. FBS Texas-San Antonio and at home vs. 3-7 Lamar. If the Cowboys beat the 5-4 Roadrunners this weekend, would the FCS playoff committee deny a team who beat two FBS teams in the same season with 7 Division I wins? A win over UTSA coupled with their 27-21 win at Middle Tennessee State, I think, would absolutely put them in the field."

I had been touting UTSA as a FBS team, but some Texas State supporters say that they are counted as FCS for both FCS & FBS opponents, even with 70+ scholarships. Is that right?

According to the NCAA Stats page, they are a provisional FBS team, so to me, > 63 schollies, they're FBS.

[Twentysix]

I would LOVE for things to play out like this! Once the Bison fans catch word that you don't have them picked to win the Valley AQ or be seeded, this thread is going to be kidnapped and held for ransom until it eventually dies...

5... 4... 3... 2...

Its entirely possible that NDSU doesn't win the MVFC AQ, not being seeded is also possible. I'd like to think 1-1 is more likely than 0-2 however.

[Sam_Kats]

Don't see this playing out. NDSU & MSU dropping the #1-2 seeds, I just don't see it.

Fun to follow though.

[Engineer86]

LFN is 100% confident in a Lehigh win, because Lehigh is the "good guys", and good guys never lose. It would be diligent of him to wager Lehigh's positioning if they lose to Colgate, and if they lose to Lafayette as well. Does 9-2 get a bid?

That last game is the grand finale of the schedule. What has everyone been calling this schedule, oh yes, ... Cupcake, that would be you. Lehigh never worries about its little sister.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

That last game is the grand finale of the schedule. What has everyone been calling this schedule, oh yes, ... Cupcake, that would be you. Lehigh never worries about its little sister.

xlolx

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Don't see this playing out. NDSU & MSU dropping the #1-2 seeds, I just don't see it.

Fun to follow though.

Here are the questions in regards to that:

If Montana State loses to Montana in the Brawl, do they get a seed?

If North Daktota State loses to South Dakota State, do they get a seed, regardless how they close against Illinois State?

Both losses would put them out of the Top 5, likely, in all the polls. Montana State losing to Montana, certainly.

[URMite]

According to the NCAA Stats page, they are a provisional FBS team, so to me, > 63 schollies, they're FBS.

I agree, but not as sure the committee agrees as I was two weeks ago. I think they count as an FCS opponent for bowl consideration.

Different topic:
Doesn't the CAA use ELO-Chess for the tie breaker? xchinscratchx Although that isn't as helpful for UR.

"ARTICLE IV
CONFERENCE CHAMPION

4.01 The team with the best conference record based on win-loss percentage shall represent the Conference
as the NCAA automatic qualifier.

4.02 In the event of a tie, the following tie-breaker format will be utilized to determine the Conference
automatic qualifier.

4.03. Tie-Breaking formats.
1. Head-to-head competition. If three-or-more teams are involved in a tie and all have played each
other, the win-loss percentage is computed using each team’s record against the tied teams as a
group rather than individually.
2. Win-loss percentage versus the highest-placed common opponents and proceeding down. When
arriving at another set of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the tied
teams as a group rather than individually.
3. Jeff Sagarin “ELO_CHESS” computation. (Located on USAToday.com & Sagarin ratings page)

4.04 Tie-Breaker Operating principles.
1. All ties are broken in descending order.
2. Once a team has been eliminated at any point, the process reverts back to the beginning with the
remaining tied teams."

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I agree, but not as sure the committee agrees as I was two weeks ago. I think they count as an FCS opponent for bowl consideration.

Different topic:
Doesn't the CAA use ELO-Chess for the tie breaker? xchinscratchx Although that isn't as helpful for UR.

"ARTICLE IV
CONFERENCE CHAMPION

4.01 The team with the best conference record based on win-loss percentage shall represent the Conference
as the NCAA automatic qualifier.

4.02 In the event of a tie, the following tie-breaker format will be utilized to determine the Conference
automatic qualifier.

4.03. Tie-Breaking formats.
1. Head-to-head competition. If three-or-more teams are involved in a tie and all have played each
other, the win-loss percentage is computed using each team’s record against the tied teams as a
group rather than individually.
2. Win-loss percentage versus the highest-placed common opponents and proceeding down. When
arriving at another set of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the tied
teams as a group rather than individually.
3. Jeff Sagarin “ELO_CHESS” computation. (Located on USAToday.com & Sagarin ratings page)

4.04 Tie-Breaker Operating principles.
1. All ties are broken in descending order.
2. Once a team has been eliminated at any point, the process reverts back to the beginning with the
remaining tied teams."

They do - I noticed that as well, it's not the regular Sag rating. Some use straight Sag, but CAA uses ELO_Chess.

What are the current rankings using that method of all the teams in the tie? Though Richmond I still think remains on top.

[URMite]

They do - I noticed that as well, it's not the regular Sag rating. Some use straight Sag, but CAA uses ELO_Chess.

What are the current rankings using that method of all the teams in the tie? Though Richmond I still think remains on top.

Unfortunately:

odu 132
unh 148
jmu 153
tu 155
ur 156
vu 160

But future results needed:
ODU 2-0
UNH 0-1
JMU 1-1
TU 2-0
UR 2-0
VU 1-1

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Unfortunately:

odu 132
unh 148
jmu 153
tu 155
ur 156
vu 160

But future results needed:
ODU 2-0
UNH 0-1
JMU 1-1
TU 2-0
UR 2-0
VU 1-1

You can remove ODU's from that list, but it's funny, I went back and forth on Towson and Richmond's eligibity. Originally I wrote that Richmond couldn't win since Towson owned the tiebreaker, but it's when I went through again and found that it went to Sag and UR's was so much higher. But with ELO_Chess it could come down to a final computation after the last CAA game has been played, with Towson at 155 and UR at 156.

I'll amend the original article. Thanks for pointing this out.

[URMite]

You can remove ODU's from that list, but it's funny, I went back and forth on Towson and Richmond's eligibity. Originally I wrote that Richmond couldn't win since Towson owned the tiebreaker, but it's when I went through again and found that it went to Sag and UR's was so much higher. But with ELO_Chess it could come down to a final computation after the last CAA game has been played, with Towson at 155 and UR at 156.

I'll amend the original article. Thanks for pointing this out.

And thank you, your article is what started me looking at the AQ again. :D

Each of the 5 results are not that far fetched individually...all together, eh.
TU over UNH
JMU over VU
UR over UD
ODU over JMU
UR over W&M

Hate to say it but one more win by UVA might help...