MVFC Playoff Forecast

[Professor Chaos]

For as strong as the MVFC looks as a conference this year it's looking more and more like there may only be two bids out of the league. These are the order, IMO, from most likely to grab a playoff spot to least likely.

1. North Dakota St, 6-1 (3-1): Remaining games are SIU, @MSU, SDSU, @ISUr. Winning 2 of 4 should guarantee a spot.
2. Indiana St, 5-2 (4-1): Remaining games are USD, ISUr, and @YSU. Winning 2 of 3 should guarantee a spot.
3. South Dakota St, 5-2 (3-1): Remaining games are YSU, @SIU, @NDSU, and USD. Winning 3 of 4 should guaranee a spot.
4. Southern Illinois, 5-3 (4-1): Remaining games are @NDSU, SDSU, and WIU. Winning all 3 should guarantee a spot and could give them the autobid.
5. Illinois St, 6-2 (3-2): Remaining games are @UNI, @ISUb, and NDSU. Winning 2 of 3 should guarantee a spot.
6. Youngstown St, 4-3 (1-3): Remaining games are @SDSU, USD, @WIU, and ISUb. Winning all 4 should guranatee a spot.

I'm guessing it'll play out where NDSU finishes at 9-2 or 10-1 and is in easily. I think Indiana St finishes 7-3 (6-2) and is likely in as well. However, after that I think there's going to be a jumble at 7-4 with at least 3 of the 4 remaining teams there. With the number of teams in the other power conferences that will be 8-3 or better I think it's going to be tough for the MVFC to get a 3rd team in. Time will tell.

[Twentysix]

SDSU could very well win 3 of 4. I don't think SIU will make it through the dakota's unscathed.

Top 3 probably make the playoffs. Wouldn't have guessed ISU-b would make the playoffs this year rather than last..

[Professor Chaos]

SDSU could very well win 3 of 4. I don't think SIU will make it through the dakota's unscathed.

Top 3 probably make the playoffs. Wouldn't have guessed ISU-b would make the playoffs this year rather than last..
Agreed, if there is a 3rd team it's SDSU that's set up the best. Illinois St and Youngstown St lost games they really couldn't afford to lose this last weekend. ISU Red, in particular, has a brutal schedule down the stretch.

[BisonBacker]

Indiana State may make the playoffs and they have a great defense but I don't see them going far with the offense they have.

[moosbah]

Very rough road ahead for all the contenders, but I think ISU-b has the best shot.....assuming they can score points.

[MarkyMark]

SIU is coming on too late to make the playoffs, 1 more loss and they should be out. Tough remaining schdule with NDSU and SDSU left to play.
Illinois St is just not good enough to get in, may lose all 3 remaining games.
Youngstown seems to be back to their inconsistent ways.
SDSU needs to beat either NDSU or SIU, plus beat YSU and USD to get in. They have the best shot of getting in after NDSU and ISU-Blue.

I see only 2 teams from MVFC with SDSU having the best shot at a 3rd spot.

[Twentysix]

I wouldn't be tremendously shocked if ISUb goes 1-2 or 3-0 in the next 3 games. ISUb barely has an offense and ISUr and YSU can be really good teams on certain days.

[Sycamore51]

We have had trouble closing out our schedule the past two years, I'm afraid this year may be the same. I think we should win next week (USD) and need to win one of our last two. That is where we've had trouble in the past. If history holds, we will need to win 1 of our last 2 and drop them both.

[Professor Chaos]

Things are clearing up a little bit. SIU and YSU went on life support while Illinois St really strengthened their case as did SDSU although not as suprisingly as the Redbirds. Here's where things stand in my estimation with 3 weeks remaining.

1. North Dakota St, 7-1 (4-1): Remaining games are @MSU, SDSU, @ISUr. Winning 1 of 3 should guarantee a spot.
2. Indiana St, 6-2 (5-1): Remaining games are ISUr and @YSU. Winning 1 of 2 should guarantee a spot.
3. South Dakota St, 6-2 (4-1): Remaining games are @SIU, @NDSU, and USD. Winning 2 of 3 should guaranee a spot.
4. Illinois St, 7-2 (4-2): Remaining games are @ISUb and NDSU. Winning 1 of 2 should guarantee a spot.
5. Southern Illinois, 5-4 (4-2): Remaining games are SDSU and WIU. Even winning out would require a lot of help to get them in.
6. Youngstown St, 4-4 (1-4): Remaining games are USD, @WIU, and ISUb. All but eliminated, even winning out only gets them to 4-4 in conference.

I think NDSU can still lose a game and get a seed (4 or 5) but winning out will get them in the top two. If Indiana St wins out they'll be in the conversation for a seed as well. ISU-Red has the two toughest games on their schedule as their last two. They'll likely be underdogs in both, it'll be interesting to see if they can pull the upset in one and punch their postseason ticket.

[LakesBison]

NDSU 10-1
ISUb 7-3 ?
ISUr 8-3

sdsu 6-5
siu 6-5

[Twentysix]

1. North Dakota St, 7-1 (4-1): Remaining games are @MSU, SDSU, @ISUr. Winning 1 of 3 should guarantee a spot.
2. Indiana St, 6-2 (5-1): Remaining games are ISUr and @YSU. Winning 1 of 2 should guarantee a spot.
3. South Dakota St, 6-2 (4-1): Remaining games are @SIU, @NDSU, and USD. Winning 2 of 3 should guaranee a spot.
4. Illinois St, 7-2 (4-2): Remaining games are @ISUb and NDSU. Winning 1 of 2 should guarantee a spot.

Lets say

#1 NDSU wins All 3. 10-1 7-1
#2 SDSU beats SIU and USD. 8-3 6-2
#3 Indiana State beats YSU. 7-3 6-2
#4 ISUr beats ISUb. 8-3 5-3

I think this is a plausible scenario.

Does the MVFC all the sudden have 3 at large spots snagged?

[Professor Chaos]

1. North Dakota St, 7-1 (4-1): Remaining games are @MSU, SDSU, @ISUr. Winning 1 of 3 should guarantee a spot.
2. Indiana St, 6-2 (5-1): Remaining games are ISUr and @YSU. Winning 1 of 2 should guarantee a spot.
3. South Dakota St, 6-2 (4-1): Remaining games are @SIU, @NDSU, and USD. Winning 2 of 3 should guaranee a spot.
4. Illinois St, 7-2 (4-2): Remaining games are @ISUb and NDSU. Winning 1 of 2 should guarantee a spot.

Lets say

#1 NDSU wins All 3. 10-1 7-1

#3 Indiana State beats YSU. 7-3 6-2

#2 SDSU beats SIU and USD. 8-3 6-2

#4 ISUr beats ISUb. 8-3 5-3

I think this is a plausible scenario.

Does the MVFC all the sudden have 3 at large spots snagged?
Yes, I would think so. But it's tough to speculate right now because there is a lot of strength in the CAA and BSC as well that could lead to some very worthy teams getting left out on selection Sunday. It seems the most plausible distribution of the at large bids right now is 3 to the Big Sky, 2 to the MVFC, 2 to the CAA, 2 to the SOCON, and 1 to the Southland. It could happen where you've got an 8-3 Cal Poly team and an 8-3 Villanova team competing with the 4th MVFC team for one final at large spot. ISU-Blue and SDSU set up well because they'd have a 6-2 record in the #1 conference in the land and ISU-Red would have an FBS win which we know the committee likes to see.

App St losing to GSU this upcoming Saturday would be a very good thing for the bubble teams in the MVFC because that frees up another at large bid for an 8-3 team.

[Jacked_Rabbit]

Yes, I would think so. But it's tough to speculate right now because there is a lot of strength in the CAA and BSC as well that could lead to some very worthy teams getting left out on selection Sunday. It seems the most plausible distribution of the at large bids right now is 3 to the Big Sky, 2 to the MVFC, 2 to the CAA, 2 to the SOCON, and 1 to the Southland. It could happen where you've got an 8-3 Cal Poly team and an 8-3 Villanova team competing with the 4th MVFC team for one final at large spot. ISU-Blue and SDSU set up well because they'd have a 6-2 record in the #1 conference in the land and ISU-Red would have an FBS win which we know the committee likes to see.

App St losing to GSU this upcoming Saturday would be a very good thing for the bubble teams in the MVFC because that frees up another at large bid for an 8-3 team.

We as a conference also can't afford to have a team from a 1-bid conference slip up - take Lehigh, for example - allowing another team from their conference to get the Auto-Bid and then taking up one of those coveted at-large spots. The more at-large bids available at season's end, the better for the MVFC's chances at getting 3 or 4 in.

[Jacked_Rabbit]

If I were an NDSU fan with aspirations of getting a seed, I'd be rooting for SDSU to beat SIU & Illinois State to knock off Indiana St. That way, you'll be facing two teams that are far less desperate than they may otherwise be when you go head-to-head with them.

A Jackrabbit loss this weekend at SIU would only ensure the Bison would be getting an extremely desperate team that has nothing to lose in Fargo. Same thing if Illinois State goes down against the Trees. A team with their back against the wall is going to give maximum effort and will be willing to take more risks to win the game.

Not saying the Jacks are just going to roll over in Fargo if they win at SIU this weekend, but a loss at Fargo wouldn't be the end of the world, so you'd be far less likely to see SDSU going for it on 4th down, attempting onside kicks, fake FG's/punts, etc, etc.

[JSUBison]

1. North Dakota St, 7-1 (4-1): Remaining games are @MSU, SDSU, @ISUr. Winning 1 of 3 should guarantee a spot.
2. Indiana St, 6-2 (5-1): Remaining games are ISUr and @YSU. Winning 1 of 2 should guarantee a spot.
3. South Dakota St, 6-2 (4-1): Remaining games are @SIU, @NDSU, and USD. Winning 2 of 3 should guaranee a spot.
4. Illinois St, 7-2 (4-2): Remaining games are @ISUb and NDSU. Winning 1 of 2 should guarantee a spot.

Lets say

#1 NDSU wins All 3. 10-1 7-1
#2 SDSU beats SIU and USD. 8-3 6-2
#3 Indiana State beats YSU. 7-3 6-2
#4 ISUr beats ISUb. 8-3 5-3

I think this is a plausible scenario.

Does the MVFC all the sudden have 3 at large spots snagged?

That Quincy game could really come back to bite ISU-B if they don't win their last two games. I think it could come down to autobid or nothing for the trees, depending on how other conference autobids shape up.

[JSUBison]

If I were an NDSU fan with aspirations of getting a seed, I'd be rooting for SDSU to beat SIU & Illinois State to knock off Indiana St. That way, you'll be facing two teams that are far less desperate than they may otherwise be when you go head-to-head with them.

A Jackrabbit loss this weekend at SIU would only ensure the Bison would be getting an extremely desperate team that has nothing to lose in Fargo. Same thing if Illinois State goes down against the Trees. A team with their back against the wall is going to give maximum effort and will be willing to take more risks to win the game.

Not saying the Jacks are just going to roll over in Fargo if they win at SIU this weekend, but a loss at Fargo wouldn't be the end of the world, so you'd be far less likely to see SDSU going for it on 4th down, attempting onside kicks, fake FG's/punts, etc, etc.

That's one way of looking at it. I've been thinking having ISU-B win out makes the NDSU loss to them look better come selection time. ISU-B should be in the top ten if they win their next two.

[Jacked_Rabbit]

That's one way of looking at it. I've been thinking having ISU-B win out makes the NDSU loss to them look better come selection time. ISU-B should be in the top ten if they win their next two.

That's another way of looking at it. An Indiana State win would be ideal for SDSU, as it would make our win against the Trees at their place look all the more impressive, plus, Illinois State would also likely be out of the playoff picture. One less team to compete with for an at-large.

[SDSUAlum08]

That's another way of looking at it. An Indiana State win would be ideal for SDSU, as it would make our win against the Trees at their place look all the more impressive, plus, Illinois State would also likely be out of the playoff picture. One less team to compete with for an at-large.

Indiana State needs to beat Illinois State. That would ensure a playoff spot for SDSU with 2 more wins. This should be interesting. Lots of MVC teams won their OOC games making many playoff eligible.

[Jacked_Rabbit]

Indiana State needs to beat Illinois State. That would ensure a playoff spot for SDSU with 2 more wins. This should be interesting. Lots of MVC teams won their OOC games making many playoff eligible.

Even if the Redbirds beat the Sycamores, 2 more Jackrabbit wins will put SDSU at 8 and basically lock up a playoff spot. So it really doesn't matter either way. We simply need to worry about our own business and win 2 of 3.

[DJKyR0]

Much as I like Trent Miles and admire ISU-B's rise from obscurity the past few years, I really hope they lose at some point int he regular season. Winning a shared conference title two years in a row just would feel tainted. I want this thing outright.

That said, let's have NDSU take care of business first.

[MTfan4life]

1. North Dakota St, 7-1 (4-1): Remaining games are @MSU, SDSU, @ISUr. Winning 1 of 3 should guarantee a spot.
2. Indiana St, 6-2 (5-1): Remaining games are ISUr and @YSU. Winning 1 of 2 should guarantee a spot.
3. South Dakota St, 6-2 (4-1): Remaining games are @SIU, @NDSU, and USD. Winning 2 of 3 should guaranee a spot.
4. Illinois St, 7-2 (4-2): Remaining games are @ISUb and NDSU. Winning 1 of 2 should guarantee a spot.

Lets say

#1 NDSU wins All 3. 10-1 7-1
#2 SDSU beats SIU and USD. 8-3 6-2
#3 Indiana State beats YSU. 7-3 6-2
#4 ISUr beats ISUb. 8-3 5-3

I think this is a plausible scenario.

Does the MVFC all the sudden have 3 at large spots snagged?

I don't know if a 3 FCS loss Illinois State team gets in this season. I don't think any team with at least 3 FCS losses will get in this season. I strongly believe they were left out last season because they had more fcs losses than the other at-large candidates. With all the potential minimal loss teams on the bubble, I think it'd be a tough sell to get them in.

Edit: Taking a deeper look, with the struggles among the potential at-large bids this past weekend, it is more and more possible each week that a three loss team still might be comfortable on selection day. I still have them missing out to a two losser from the CAA, but ya never know what the crazy committee will be thinking.

[Professor Chaos]

I don't know if a 3 FCS loss Illinois State team gets in this season. I don't think any team with at least 3 FCS losses will get in this season. I strongly believe they were left out last season because they had more fcs losses than the other at-large candidates. With all the potential minimal loss teams on the bubble, I think it'd be a tough sell to get them in.

Edit: Taking a deeper look, with the struggles among the potential at-large bids this past weekend, it is more and more possible each week that a three loss team still might be comfortable on selection day. I still have them missing out to a two losser from the CAA, but ya never know what the crazy committee will be thinking.
So you punish a team that beat an FBS and lost an extra FCS game rather than a team that lost to an FBS and won an extra FCS game? That doesn't make much sense to me. There will to rare exceptions but I would think an FBS win would carry more weight than an FCS win in most comparisons. So if all other things are equal the team with the FBS win (and 3 FCS losses) gets in over the team with the FBS loss (and only 2 other FCS losses).

[Twentysix]

I don't know if a 3 FCS loss Illinois State team gets in this season. I don't think any team with at least 3 FCS losses will get in this season. I strongly believe they were left out last season because they had more fcs losses than the other at-large candidates. With all the potential minimal loss teams on the bubble, I think it'd be a tough sell to get them in.

Edit: Taking a deeper look, with the struggles among the potential at-large bids this past weekend, it is more and more possible each week that a three loss team still might be comfortable on selection day. I still have them missing out to a two losser from the CAA, but ya never know what the crazy committee will be thinking.

I have to believe that the committee will put more stock in an FBS win than you do. A) 8-3 in a power conference 0-1 against FBS; B) 8-3 in a power conference 1-0 against FBS. I just don't see the logic in the arguement.

All other things being equal B is the stronger team. I seem to remeber an NDSU team in 2010 making the playoffs with 4 FCS losses, and an FBS win.

[MTfan4life]

I have to believe that the committee will put more stock in an FBS win than you do. A) 8-3 in a power conference 0-1 against FBS; B) 8-3 in a power conference 1-0 against FBS. I just don't see the logic in the arguement.

All other things being equal B is the stronger team. I seem to remeber an NDSU team in 2010 making the playoffs with 4 FCS losses, and an FBS win.

Lol, Please find a team in 2010 that got snubbed. The at-large pool that season had 6 or 7 teams that deserved to be in the playoffs and the committee had to select 10. So, that can't be any comparison to this year when there could be a whole host of teams with 2 and 3 FCS losses.

And yes, 8-3 with one FBS loss looks better than 8-3 with 1-0 against FCS. You're not punishing that team for winning their FBS game. You're punishing them for losing an extra FCS game. The regular season matters too. Once you lose more FCS games than the other teams on the bubble, what have you proven that you still deserve a chance at being the best team? This is the FCS Championship. Losing FCS games should carry the most weight. Last season ISU-r took a seeded team to overtime and EKU's best win was over JSU. However, ISU-r had 4 FCS losses and EKU only had 3.

[Professor Chaos]

Lol, Please find a team in 2010 that got snubbed. The at-large pool that season had 6 or 7 teams that deserved to be in the playoffs and the committee had to select 10. So, that can't be any comparison to this year when there could be a whole host of teams with 2 and 3 FCS losses.

And yes, 8-3 with one FBS loss looks better than 8-3 with 1-0 against FCS. You're not punishing that team for winning their FBS game. You're punishing them for losing an extra FCS game. The regular season matters too. Once you lose more FCS games than the other teams on the bubble, what have you proven that you still deserve a chance at being the best team? This is the FCS Championship. Losing FCS games should carry the most weight. Last season ISU-r took a seeded team to overtime and EKU's best win was over JSU. However, ISU-r had 4 FCS losses and EKU only had 3.
I guess it depends on your perspective. You think they go by the "who did you lose to" model whereas I think they go more by the "who did you beat" model. Illinois St lost 4 FCS games last year but they also had virtually nothing for quality wins. Their only win against a team with a winning D1 record was Indiana St who finished 6-5 losing 4 of their last 6. I still thought they should've been in over EKU but that's a different story altogether. In any case, their resume is already stronger this year with a FBS win, an OOC win over a 5-3 EIU team, and wins in conference over YSU and UNI (both of which are losing luster quite quickly however). But keep in mind an 8-3 ISUr would also have a win over either ISUb or NDSU in their pocket. I find it hard to see them left out of the playoffs with that resume even if it includes 3 FCS losses.

[Houndawg]

Things are clearing up a little bit. SIU and YSU went on life support while Illinois St really strengthened their case as did SDSU although not as suprisingly as the Redbirds. Here's where things stand in my estimation with 3 weeks remaining.

1. North Dakota St, 7-1 (4-1): Remaining games are @MSU, SDSU, @ISUr. Winning 1 of 3 should guarantee a spot.
2. Indiana St, 6-2 (5-1): Remaining games are ISUr and @YSU. Winning 1 of 2 should guarantee a spot.
3. South Dakota St, 6-2 (4-1): Remaining games are @SIU, @NDSU, and USD. Winning 2 of 3 should guaranee a spot.
4. Illinois St, 7-2 (4-2): Remaining games are @ISUb and NDSU. Winning 1 of 2 should guarantee a spot.
5. Southern Illinois, 5-4 (4-2): Remaining games are SDSU and WIU. Even winning out would require a lot of help to get them in.
6. Youngstown St, 4-4 (1-4): Remaining games are USD, @WIU, and ISUb. All but eliminated, even winning out only gets them to 4-4 in conference.

I think NDSU can still lose a game and get a seed (4 or 5) but winning out will get them in the top two. If Indiana St wins out they'll be in the conversation for a seed as well. ISU-Red has the two toughest games on their schedule as their last two. They'll likely be underdogs in both, it'll be interesting to see if they can pull the upset in one and punch their postseason ticket.

If SIU beats SDSU and WIU they will be 4-2 against AGS Top 25 teams and have a strong SOS which should give them a good chance against other 7-4 teams and 8-3 teams from weak conferences, imo.

[skinny_uncle]

xdizzyx

[sgt smash]

If SIU beats SDSU and WIU they will be 4-2 against AGS Top 25 teams and have a strong SOS which should give them a good chance against other 7-4 teams and 8-3 teams from weak conferences, imo.

I just wish you wouldn't have lost to a OVC team. I kinda like you guys and would like to see how you stack up in the playoffs.

[NDB]

If SIU beats SDSU and WIU they will be 4-2 against AGS Top 25 teams and have a strong SOS which should give them a good chance against other 7-4 teams and 8-3 teams from weak conferences, imo.

ain't gonna happen.

[Professor Chaos]

Well, now it's looking more like the MVFC could get 4 bids after the way things shook out last weekend with Illinois St and NDSU hitting 8 D1 wins and SDSU likely guaranteeing that they'll get there as well (with 2 chances including a home date against USD). SIU was eliminated from contention as they can only get to 6 D1 wins. Illinois St's win over Indiana St basically flipped their positioning as ISUr is now playing for playoff position whereas ISUb is playing for their playoff life.

1. North Dakota St, 8-1 (5-1): Remaining games are SDSU and @ISUr. Should be in, one win in the last two would give either a seed or a bye and a 2nd round home game, two wins would likely give a top seed.
2. South Dakota St, 7-2 (5-1): Remaining games are @NDSU and USD. Winning 1 of 2 should guaranee a spot. Winning both gives them the autobid and puts them in the conversation for a seed.
3. Illinois St, 8-2 (5-2): Only remaining game is NDSU. They should be in already but without a win against NDSU they'd likely be playing in the first round games the Saturday after Thanksgiving.
4. Indiana St, 6-3 (5-2): Only remaining game is @YSU. They're obviously in must win territory, I think they're in with a win on the strength of a 6-2 conference record and a huge road win against NDSU.
5. Youngstown St, 5-4 (2-4): Remaining games are @WIU and ISUb. ISUr did a huge favor for YSU's slim playoff hopes by beating ISUb so if YSU wins out they eliminate ISUb from contention and move up to 4th in the conference pecking order. They still would have a very questionable resume.

Elsewhere around the country App St didn't do any favors to the MVFC bubble teams by knocking off GSU and putting themselves in excellent position to get to 8 D1 wins. There's a couple big CAA games next weekend (JMU @ Villanova and Delaware @ Richmond) that could put bubble teams from that conference in very precarious situations. Chattanooga @ Wofford in the SOCON will also be an elimination game but a Chattanooga win would likely be better for MVFC bubble teams. The OVC is another conference to watch out for as they could vulch an at-large bid with teams like UT Martin (7-2), EIU (6-3), TSU (8-2), EKU (7-3) all with reasonable arguments should they finish with 8 or more D1 wins but the next couple weeks should dwindle that list down. Bubble teams will also be rooting for SBU in the Big South and Lehigh in the Patriot to take the autobids in those leagues to avoid adding more bubble teams to the fray.

There's still a lot to be decided in the last two weeks in the MVFC with a huge game in Fargo this weekend and huge games in both Normal and Youngstown next weekend.

[Professor Chaos]

Some bad things happened for MVFC bubble teams on Saturday with Lehigh's and Stony Brook's losses.

1. North Dakota St, 9-1 (6-1): Final game is @ISUr. I think the Bison are guaranteed at least a 5 seed but winning should lock up a top 2 seed and homefield throughout the playoffs.
2. Illinois St, 8-2 (5-2): Final game is home against NDSU. They should be in already but they'll be playing for a 1st round bye.
3. South Dakota St, 7-3 (5-2): Final game is home against USD. The NDSU loss didn't hurt them much IMO. A win against USD this week should put them in the field although I would guess they won't get a bye.
4. Indiana St, 6-3 (5-2): Final game is @YSU. The strengthened bubble has really put the Sycs in a tricky spot. They need to win obviously but it looks like they're also going to need some help as they'll only be able to get to 7 D1 wins. I'd put their chances of getting in with a win at about 50%.
5. Youngstown St, 6-4 (3-4): Final game is at ISUb. The Penguins are in even more trouble after last weekend's upsets. I think they need a convincing win against Indiana St this weekend and have pretty much everything else around the country to go right for them. I'd put their chances of getting in with a win at about 5%.


Here are the games around the country that the ISUb/YSU winner will be watching very closely:

Cal Poly @ NAU - The loser of this game will be on shaky ground. A Cal Poly win would probably be better for the ISUb/YSU winner as NAU is closer to being out IMO than Cal Poly is.

Liberty @ VMI - A Liberty loss gives Stony Brook the Big South auto-bid which will weaken the bubble.

JMU @ ODU - ODU is in already but a JMU loss would probably knock them below the ISUb/YSU winner.

Richmond @ W&M - Richmond is in with a win but a loss could open up a spot.

Villanova @ Delaware - Villanova is in must win territory and they'll be tough to leave out at 8-3.

Towson @ UNH - Towson is one of the few 7 wins teams that could match chops with ISUb/YSU winner and a win against UNH would likely put Towson above that team.

Tennessee St @ UT-Martin - One of these teams is going to get an impressive resume building win at the end of the season to put them on the bubble with EKU out of the OVC. A Tennessee St win would probably be more troubling for the ISUb/YSU winner as that would give them 9 D1 wins.

Lehigh @ Lafayette - Lehigh will be the most polarizing team on the bubble but only if they beat the Pards, a loss would certainly knock them out of contention.

[Southern Bison]

The MVFC is on par for 3 teams in the playoffs this year, IMO with NDSU (10-1), ISU-r (8-3), & SDSU (8-3). That's the double-edged sword of having a strong conference from top to nearly bottom in that every week, most games are not a sure win and the overall strength of the conference means that our #2-8 teams beat up and knock each other out of the playoff conversation.