Playoff Prediction Week 4

[Go Apps]

E. Washington vs Delaware
Stoney Brook vs Towson winner vs 1) North Dakota State

EKU vs 5) Youngstown State
SC State vs Citadel winner vs 4) GSU

N. Arizona vs Sam Houston State
Lehigh vs C. Arkanssa winner vs 2) ODU

Wofford vs James Madison
Albany vs New Hampshire winner vs 3) Montana State

Autobids - Albany - NEC, JMU-CAA, GSU-Southern, Montana St -Big Sky, EKU- OVC, NDSU - MVC, Lehigh- Patriot, Sam Houston State - Southland, Stony Brook - Big South, SC State-MEAC

This weeks bubble teams - Samford, SFA, ASU, Montana, McNeese State, Cal Poly, South dakota State, Tenn Martin, N. Arizona, Ill State

DEVELOPING STORY LINES...

-N. Iowa by all means is eliminated from post season consideration
-Montana could be out of the playoffs things are not looking good, another heart breaking loss
-How about Stoney Brook win over Arym
-Are the Glory Days returning? Both EKU and Younstown State look strong!
-Sam Houston got a gift from SFA

[Trek222]

People keep forgetting that ODU is not eligible for the CAA auto-bid. That being said they are still eligible for a at large, which it certainly looks like they will get.

[Go Apps]

People keep forgetting that ODU is not eligible for the CAA auto-bid. That being said they are still eligible for a at large, which it certainly looks like they will get.

Thanks made the change

[uofmman1122]

Things aren't going well in Grizville, but how are we not at least on the bubble?

We can still lose one more game and get to 7 DI wins.

With the expanded field, I highly doubt they'd leave a 7-4 Montana team out.

Now if only we can get there....xrotatehx

[Go Apps]

Things aren't going well in Grizville, but how are we not at least on the bubble?

We can still lose one more game and get to 7 DI wins.

With the expanded field, I highly doubt they'd leave a 7-4 Montana team out.

Now if only we can get there....xrotatehx

Hey since ASU beat you guys we need you in - I watched the game on Saturday night and could not believe the end - for the moment it seems like there are too many good teams in the cournty - I do not believe even ASU gets in at 7-4

[Go Apps]

[QUOTE=uofmman1122;1856276]Things aren't going well in Grizville, but how are we not at least on the bubble?

We can still lose one more game and get to 7 DI wins.

With the expanded field, I highly doubt they'd leave a 7-4 Montana team out.

Also 10 spots are AB's that does not leave many when you got to believe that EWU and N Arizona are in over you - then add in another 3 teams from the CAA - two more at least from the MVC - that only leaves 3 spots and we have not even talked about the Socon/OVC/Southland and I still think a 4th comes out of the MVC - all I can say is keep winning and you need to knock off Montana State
Now if only we can get there..

[uofmman1122]

I read your post wrong. lol

I read again and saw us on your bubble.

My bad. :o

[uofmman1122]

Also, I'd be willing to bet the Big Sky gets 5 teams in before the CAA.

MUCH higher chance of more teams with better records, since our conference is now so big.

Also just so happens that NAU and Cal Poly don't play EWU or MSU. (Cal Poly plays EWU, but it's non-conference, and they don't play Montana)

This is totally possible:

MSU 10-1
EWU 9-2
NAU 9-2
Cal Poly 9-2
Montana 8-3

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

I think North Dakota will have something to say in those records before all is said and done. They may barely miss the playoffs this year but also take a fellow BSC team out with them. Misery loves company!

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Here it goes...

WEST BRACKET

1. NDSU

Eastern Illinois
Eastern Washington


Sam Houston St.

Northern Arizona


5. Youngstown State

Cal Poly


4. Montana St.

Ill. St.
Tennessee State

EAST BRACKET

2. ODU

Bethune-Cookman
Ga Southern


Stony Brook

UNH


JMU

Lehigh

Albany
Villanova


3. Wofford

Noticeable omissions: Montana, UNI, South Dakota St., App. St., Central Arkansas, Lafayette, Towson and Eastern Kentucky

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Also, with more teams from the West and the rules about travel and 1st match ups, I really think we will see more planes than usual. More buses in the East, but still likely some West teams sent East and vice versa.

[kalm]

Also, with more teams from the West and the rules about travel and 1st match ups, I really think we will see more planes than usual. More buses in the East, but still likely some West teams sent East and vice versa.

There's now more teams from the west?

[Professor Chaos]

This weeks bubble teams - Samford, SFA, ASU, Montana, McNeese State, Cal Poly, South dakota State, Tenn Martin, N. Arizona, Ill State

I don't think Illinois St is a bubble team. I think they're in pretty solidly with 5 wins and winnable games against SIU and Missouri St coming up. Unless you're expecting them to lose all 4 against YSU, InSU, UNI, and NDSU they'll get in.

[Go Apps]

I don't think Illinois St is a bubble team. I think they're in pretty solidly with 5 wins and winnable games against SIU and Missouri St coming up. Unless you're expecting them to lose all 4 against YSU, InSU, UNI, and NDSU they'll get in.

You are probably right - they will rise quickly as they move through the schedule - I am now believing that the field is so strong that 8 wins will be a must for at large teams

[caribbeanhen]

E. Washington vs Delaware
Stoney Brook vs Towson winner vs 1) North Dakota State

EKU vs 5) Youngstown State
SC State vs Citadel winner vs 4) GSU

N. Arizona vs Sam Houston State
Lehigh vs C. Arkanssa winner vs 2) ODU

Wofford vs James Madison
Albany vs New Hampshire winner vs 3) Montana State

Autobids - Albany - NEC, JMU-CAA, GSU-Southern, Montana St -Big Sky, EKU- OVC, NDSU - MVC, Lehigh- Patriot, Sam Houston State - Southland, Stony Brook - Big South, SC State-MEAC

This weeks bubble teams - Samford, SFA, ASU, Montana, McNeese State, Cal Poly, South dakota State, Tenn Martin, N. Arizona, Ill State

DEVELOPING STORY LINES...

-N. Iowa by all means is eliminated from post season consideration
-Montana could be out of the playoffs things are not looking good, another heart breaking loss
-How about Stoney Brook win over Arym
-Are the Glory Days returning? Both EKU and Younstown State look strong!
-Sam Houston got a gift from SFA

LAST YEARS PLAYOFF TEAMS:

On Track - NDSU, Stoney Brook, Albany, Montana State, Wofford, C. Arkansas, ODU, Towson, Lehigh, JMU, EKU, GSU

On The Bubble: ASU, Samford, Tenn State, Richmond, Cal Poly, Ind State, SFA, McNeese State

In Serious Trouble: N. Iowa, Sam Houston State

are you saying Samford was in the playoffs last year? I dont remember it that way, but I don't remember either

[Go Apps]

No they did not - took out the last few lines so updated :):)

[BisonBacker]

You are probably right - they will rise quickly as they move through the schedule - I am now believing that the field is so strong that 8 wins will be a must for at large teams

I'm not so sure ISU-R s a bubble team they are 5-0 right now? why do you see them as a bubble team?

[Go Apps]

I'm not so sure ISU-R s a bubble team they are 5-0 right now? why do you see them as a bubble team?

Just that they have yet to face some of the bigger conference teams as of yet- once they do and start winning I will - many others have already faced some key competition so once they meet and win they will get off the bubble -

I think it is so hard right now to do predictions there are way too maby quality teams in the mix that could finish with 8-3 or 7-4 I would not want to choosing the teams this year - what a mess

[BisonBacker]

Just that they have yet to face some of the bigger conference teams as of yet- once they do and start winning I will - many others have already faced some key competition so once they meet and win they will get off the bubble -

I think it is so hard right now to do predictions there are way too maby quality teams in the mix that could finish with 8-3 or 7-4 I would not want to choosing the teams this year - what a mess

Good point, yes their schedule is back loaded just like SDSU's is. It will take a while for things to clear up and I agree it will be a mess trying to choose teams this year. There are so many quality teams.

[Go Apps]

Yes my thoughts are the following on at large field

MVC - 3
OVC - 1
Southern - 2
Big Sky - 3
CAA - 3
Southland - 1

That adds up to 13 which is 3 too many - the Socon looks to be the first out and possibly the OVC second that still leaves one

[MTfan4life]

1. North Dakota State
@Sam Houston State
Northern Arizona


@Montana State

Illinois State


5. Youngstown State

Cal Poly

@South Dakota State
Eastern Kentucky

4. Eastern Washington


3. Wofford
@Albany
New Hampshire


Old Dominion

Lehigh


Georgia Southern

Stony Brook

@Appalachian State
Bethune Cookman

2. James Madison

I apologize if I left your favorite team out.

[UAalum72]

@Albany
New Hampshire

Albany hosting a playoff game against anybody this year is the longest shot in the field.

[Mattymc727]

Albany hosting a playoff game against anybody this year is the longest shot in the field.

Probably a better shot than UNH, Unless somehow UNH got a seed at 9-2

[MTfan4life]

Albany hosting a playoff game against anybody this year is the longest shot in the field.

Two schools within the 400 mile bracket, so they'd likely be playing in this scenario. Albany has a capacity of 10,000. New Hampshire has a capacity of 8,000. Is it really that much of a long shot if those two teams play each other?

[frozennorth]

#1 NDSU vs UCA @ EKU winner
wofford vs EWU

#5 Stony Brook vs Lehigh
#4 cal Poly vs NAU @ SHSU winner


#2 JMU vs the citadel @ albany
ISU vs Towson

#3 YSU vs scsu @ GSU
MSU vs ODU

conference winners and projected records: MVFC NDSU 11-0, CAA JMU 9-2, Big sky cal poly 10-1, big south SBU 10-1, socon wofford 9-2, NEC albany 9-2, patriot lehigh 10-1, OVC eku 8-3, scstate meac, southland shsu 8-3

[Gil Dobie]

Also, I'd be willing to bet the Big Sky gets 5 teams in before the CAA.

MUCH higher chance of more teams with better records, since our conference is now so big.

Also just so happens that NAU and Cal Poly don't play EWU or MSU. (Cal Poly plays EWU, but it's non-conference, and they don't play Montana)

This is totally possible:

MSU 10-1
EWU 9-2
NAU 9-2
Cal Poly 9-2
Montana 8-3

That's what is crazy with the new conference set ups. 5 - 8 win teams in the Big Sky and the MVFC could have 4. Is there enough room in the playoffs for everyone?

[bojeta]

Here it goes...

WEST BRACKET

1. NDSU

Eastern Illinois
Eastern Washington


Sam Houston St.

Northern Arizona


5. Youngstown State

Cal Poly


4. Montana St.

Ill. St.
Tennessee State

EAST BRACKET

2. ODU

Bethune-Cookman
Ga Southern


Stony Brook

UNH


JMU

Lehigh

Albany
Villanova


3. Wofford

Noticeable omissions: Montana, UNI, South Dakota St., App. St., Central Arkansas, Lafayette, Towson and Eastern Kentucky

Almost exactly the way I have it. Just switch Mont State and Cal Poly :)

[UAalum72]

Two schools within the 400 mile bracket, so they'd likely be playing in this scenario. Albany has a capacity of 10,000. New Hampshire has a capacity of 8,000. Is it really that much of a long shot if those two teams play each other?
"10,000" includes sitting on hillsides, actual number of seats in probably under 4,500, most of them too low and too far away for good viewing. Given that, natural grass in late November, and Thanksgiving weekend, I can't see Albany putting in a bid.

Next year, with our new stadium, yes.

[MTfan4life]

"10,000" includes sitting on hillsides, actual number of seats in probably under 4,500, most of them too low and too far away for good viewing. Given that, natural grass in late November, and Thanksgiving weekend, I can't see Albany putting in a bid.

Next year, with our new stadium, yes.

touché

[LehighU11]

I know that the Patriot League is not at the same level of competitiveness as the Southland, but would an 11-0 team from the PL receive a seed like SHSU last year? Would attendance factor into seeding for an undefeated squad?

[frozennorth]

I know that the Patriot League is not at the same level of competitiveness as the Southland, but would an 11-0 team from the PL receive a seed like SHSU last year? Would attendance factor into seeding for an undefeated squad?


depends on how many other 10 and 11 win teams are out there. any 10-1 team from a big4 conference will get a seed over lehigh, and I think a 10-1 sbu or albany would as well.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

I know that the Patriot League is not at the same level of competitiveness as the Southland, but would an 11-0 team from the PL receive a seed like SHSU last year? Would attendance factor into seeding for an undefeated squad?

An 11-0 Lehigh would absolutely get a seed. A 10-1 season likely gets a first round bye like last year. Lehigh is hardly a johnie come lately. They've been extremely successful sine th PL lifted their playoff ban in '97.

I doubt they'd get severely punished for 1 league loss. Three straight years without a league loss is a bit much to ask imo.

From a phone

[Engineer86]

depends on how many other 10 and 11 win teams are out there. any 10-1 team from a big4 conference will get a seed over lehigh, and I think a 10-1 sbu or albany would as well.

Why Albany at 10-1, trade a win for a loss to YSU and Albany's signature win could well be a 3 or 4 win Maine. This is where history would play a roll in my opinion.

[danefan]

Albany isn't getting a seed. No matter what happens.

[Engineer86]

Albany isn't getting a seed. No matter what happens.

I tend to agree with you on that. Last year I would have said an 11-0 Lehigh still would not, but SHSU ended up #1 seed, while I would say there will be 5 better teams on Nov 18, the ucommittee does respect wins.

If Lehigh did sneak into a seed, we still could see Lehigh Albany in the second round. Alternatively, I could also see it work out that both get byes and still play in the second round. I think Stony Brook at 10-1 takes a seed from 11-0 Lehigh.

[Pard4Life]

I tend to agree with you on that. Last year I would have said an 11-0 Lehigh still would not, but SHSU ended up #1 seed, while I would say there will be 5 better teams on Nov 18, the ucommittee does respect wins.

If Lehigh did sneak into a seed, we still could see Lehigh Albany in the second round. Alternatively, I could also see it work out that both get byes and still play in the second round. I think Stony Brook at 10-1 takes a seed from 11-0 Lehigh.

You better worry about Colgate and Lafayette first before making any December plans.

[Go Apps]

Albany isn't getting a seed. No matter what happens.

Agree would be really hard for Albany

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

There's now more teams from the west?

Yes, some of the teams that had not been playoff eligible because of transition from D2 or played in weaker conferences are more in play. North Dakota still has some D2s on their schedule, but you get the point. Yes, the pool is bigger from the West.

[Eaglesrus]

Good point, yes their schedule is back loaded just like SDSU's is. It will take a while for things to clear up and I agree it will be a mess trying to choose teams this year. There are so many quality teams.

You can add GSU to the back-loaded schedule list and put the SoCon on the list of conferences for which it will be several more weeks before we have anything like a clear picture of how it will shake out. Only thing clear to me at this point is that Wofford is the frontrunner for the autobid.

[Go Apps]

You can add GSU to the back-loaded schedule list and put the SoCon on the list of conferences for which it will be several more weeks before we have anything like a clear picture of how it will shake out. Only thing clear to me at this point is that Wofford is the frontrunner for the autobid.

Agree but as an ASU fan - I thnk we are on the outside looking in - I still believe GSU is tops, then Wofford, Samford, Citadel then ASU - Citadel's wins over both GSU and ASU are just huge in the Socon race - I still cannot figure out how UTC beat them as they looked so impresive against us. It will be very hard to keep them out of the playoffs with even 4 losses - which could spell diaster for both of us - they get the nod over us both if we end up 7-4 and based on the records around the country the Socon will be lucky to get 3 teams and I believe Wofford is one of them - if Citadel wins this week I think they at least get to 7-4 - hey but still think you win the conference outright!

[Eaglesrus]

Agree but as an ASU fan - I thnk we are on the outside looking in - I still believe GSU is tops, then Wofford, Samford, Citadel then ASU - Citadel's wins over both GSU and ASU are just huge in the Socon race - I still cannot figure out how UTC beat them as they looked so impresive against us. It will be very hard to keep them out of the playoffs with even 4 losses - which could spell diaster for both of us - they get the nod over us both if we end up 7-4 and based on the records around the country the Socon will be lucky to get 3 teams and I believe Wofford is one of them - if Citadel wins this week I think they at least get to 7-4 - hey but still think you win the conference outright!

Having watched all of our games so far I'd say that our offense has a long way to go before they are playing well enough to compete with the majority of the teams left on our schedule. The defense has been very good (its arguable that our offense has given up almost as many points as our defense and we're still second in the conference in scoring D), but I have to wonder how long they can hold up under the kind of pressure they've faced.

[Engineer86]

You better worry about Colgate and Lafayette first before making any December plans.

Colgate and who?