Reign of Terrier
September 16th, 2012, 01:18 PM
Okay, so we are 3 weeks in and we are getting a *slight* feeling for how things are, but I'm not convinced of anything quite yet.
App state, Wofford, and GSU were the preseason top 3, but already GSU and App State have a conference loss. Wofford's 3-0 but played D2 Lincoln. GSU still has to play Georgia, and will likely lose to them. So as of now, GSU and App can't finish higher than 9-2, while Wofford at 10-1. With that said, Wofford game only get 9 D1 wins.
GSU and App needs 6 wins to qualify for the playoffs, while Wofford needs 5.
Not to mention the fact that the Citadel needs 4, and has already gone through the beef of their schedule, minus Wofford and NC State.
There's also Furman, who started 0-3, but still has 8 more conference/D1 games.
Elon is 2-1, but still needs 6 more games to win as well.
Samford is in the same position as Wofford
Anyway, the point is that right now, the Socon could get as many as 4 teams in, and I think conservatively we'll get at least 2. I'd say the teams with the greatest statistical likelihood of making the playoffs are:
1) The Citadel: only needs to win 4 more games and has games against VMI and Western Carolina. With Elon and Chattanooga at home, I see those as winnable games and toss ups. The Wofford game should be interesting, as the citadel hasn't won a game against Wofford since the Clinton administration and have played poorly the last few outings, but in that span the Citadel has played better at Wofford than at the Citadel.....the game is in sparkle city this year.
2)They still have to play App and wofford (both at home), but we don't know how good they are. Regardless, they only need 7 total D1 wins, meaning they just need to finish 5-3 in conference and thus they can afford to drop Wofford/App.
3A)Wofford: We have a tough 4 game stretch of Furman, @GSU, @App, and the Citadel, but I don't see us losing against more than 2 of those 4 and i most certainly don't see us losing 3 straight. Elon will be a toughy for us as well but I like our chances given we have a bye to prepare. I just like our chances to start 5-0, not because of we are *that much better* than Elon/Furman but because A) we have the bye against Elon and B) we are definitely going to be pumped to beat Furman and I think we have the capability to do so. If we start 6-0 or 6-1, I like our chances of making the playoffs.
3B)App State: It's hard to really make a decision on this one between Wofford and App. App supposedly looks weaker this year, but I'm not going to say that with confidence if and until Wofford beats them in Boone in about 5 weeks. They, like GSU benefit from playing 2 D1 team and only have to finish 5-3 in conference.
The pressure is really on Wofford IMO, we have to finish in the top 3 (with less than 3 conference losses) and we still have the beef of our schedule left. I'm not resting easy on our chances of making the playoffs until we get that 7th D1 win.
App state, Wofford, and GSU were the preseason top 3, but already GSU and App State have a conference loss. Wofford's 3-0 but played D2 Lincoln. GSU still has to play Georgia, and will likely lose to them. So as of now, GSU and App can't finish higher than 9-2, while Wofford at 10-1. With that said, Wofford game only get 9 D1 wins.
GSU and App needs 6 wins to qualify for the playoffs, while Wofford needs 5.
Not to mention the fact that the Citadel needs 4, and has already gone through the beef of their schedule, minus Wofford and NC State.
There's also Furman, who started 0-3, but still has 8 more conference/D1 games.
Elon is 2-1, but still needs 6 more games to win as well.
Samford is in the same position as Wofford
Anyway, the point is that right now, the Socon could get as many as 4 teams in, and I think conservatively we'll get at least 2. I'd say the teams with the greatest statistical likelihood of making the playoffs are:
1) The Citadel: only needs to win 4 more games and has games against VMI and Western Carolina. With Elon and Chattanooga at home, I see those as winnable games and toss ups. The Wofford game should be interesting, as the citadel hasn't won a game against Wofford since the Clinton administration and have played poorly the last few outings, but in that span the Citadel has played better at Wofford than at the Citadel.....the game is in sparkle city this year.
2)They still have to play App and wofford (both at home), but we don't know how good they are. Regardless, they only need 7 total D1 wins, meaning they just need to finish 5-3 in conference and thus they can afford to drop Wofford/App.
3A)Wofford: We have a tough 4 game stretch of Furman, @GSU, @App, and the Citadel, but I don't see us losing against more than 2 of those 4 and i most certainly don't see us losing 3 straight. Elon will be a toughy for us as well but I like our chances given we have a bye to prepare. I just like our chances to start 5-0, not because of we are *that much better* than Elon/Furman but because A) we have the bye against Elon and B) we are definitely going to be pumped to beat Furman and I think we have the capability to do so. If we start 6-0 or 6-1, I like our chances of making the playoffs.
3B)App State: It's hard to really make a decision on this one between Wofford and App. App supposedly looks weaker this year, but I'm not going to say that with confidence if and until Wofford beats them in Boone in about 5 weeks. They, like GSU benefit from playing 2 D1 team and only have to finish 5-3 in conference.
The pressure is really on Wofford IMO, we have to finish in the top 3 (with less than 3 conference losses) and we still have the beef of our schedule left. I'm not resting easy on our chances of making the playoffs until we get that 7th D1 win.