Turnover Margin

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Perhaps the single most telling statistic in football aside from the score of the game, the turnover margin! How many games have we witnessed where one team dominates another, but yet that one interception or fumble sealed the deal? It's not always the best teams that win, but the ones that make the most of their opportunities.

As we head into the playoffs, I wanted to take a look at the field and do some really rudimentary analysis. The following comes from NCAA stats for the playoff teams and their respective national ranking in this statistical category:

National Ranking School Name Turnovers Gained / Turnovers Given Away
2. Sam Houston State - +34 / -10
4. Eastern Kentucky - +31 / -15
Stony Brook - +28 / -12
6. Northern Iowa - +27 / -12
8. North Dakota State +22 / -8
12. Central Arkansas +29 / -17
16. Old Dominion - +24 / -14
20. Maine - +26 / -17
24. Albany - +22 / -14
Montana - +23 /-15
Towson - +24 / -16
32. Lehigh - +26 / -20
36. App St. - +24 / -19
Norfolk St. +19 / -14
40. Georgia Southern +19 / -15
James Madison - +17 / -13
50. Tennessee Tech - +20 / -19
51. Montana State - +17 / -16
Wofford - +16 / -15
82. New Hampshire - + 24 / -29

With those rankings, a few observations:
#1 - The top two seeded teams, SHSU and NDSU, turned the ball over the least this year. This emphasizes what we are innately know and understand: hold on to the damn ball and your chances of winning improve greatly.

#2 The top three in turnover margin (SHSU, EKU and SBU) all come from what are generally considered weaker conferences. Coincidence or a testament to how good these teams really are? Only time will tell...

#3 New Hampshire - the ONLY playoff team to be in the red on turnover margin. This tells me that UNH is a better team than we think. If they could make the playoffs with this stat, they are a dangerous team to either implode by giving it away, or to surprise and upset some teams should they hold on to the ball. Following New Hampshire, Lehigh (20) and App St. (19) turned the ball over the most.

#4 No greater discrepancy appears than in the match between 4th ranked EKU and 40th ranked JMU. We Dukes fans recognize this as perhaps our team's key to the game. EKU created 6 turnovers (I think) in their 10-7 loss against Kansas St, a top 25 team in the BCS this year. However, this chart shows that EKU actually turned the ball over 15 times, two more times than JMU did (13). Only Wofford (16) gained fewer turnovers than JMU (17). This brings me to point #5:

#5 Option teams are relatively low in the rankings. JMU, Georgia Southern, Wofford fall in the back quarter of playoff teams regarding turnover margin. The natural inclination is to blame this on the option toss, or bad exchange between QB and RBs. The numbers tend to support this especially with GSU (12 fumbles lost, 3 INTs) and JMU (8 fumbles lost; 5 INTs). Yet none of these teams has either given the ball up or gained the ball 20 times or more. Ironically, generally "cleaner" games with the option teams.

So what does all of this mean? I have no freaking clue! But I do believe that somewhere in the above observations will be the story behind the story in the playoff games this year, maybe even a hidden gem that could foretell who will win the National Championship.

[Engineer86]

This is all good stuff. To win consistently you must win this stat, which all but UNH do. This stat is the makings of upset, but no one knows who will win the stat.

[katstrapper]

What in the hell does turnover margin have to do with strength of schedule? So you believe that the weaker the schedule, the more turnovers your opponents will make?? You people amaze me......xbangx

[Mattymc727]

Another UNH fan brought up an interesting stat about UNH the other day. Over the last three years, UNH has had a record of 28-11 (including playoffs). Yet, UNH has thrown 50 touchdown passes and 37 interceptions. I cant imagine what UNH could have done if they had only thrown 20 interceptions over that 3 year span. In a game like the one vs Towson, in which UNH scored 42 points, we still had 4 turnovers. Had we played a turnoverless game, UNH would have won.

[UNIFanSince1983]

What in the hell does turnover margin have to do with strength of schedule? So you believe that the weaker the schedule, the more turnovers your opponents will make?? You people amaze me......xbangx

Well bad teams tend to turn the ball over more. Why do you think only 1 team in the playoffs is negative in this stat?

[ngineer]

No question the term 'eliminating mistakes' focuses first on TOs (followed by 'stupid' penalties). TO's not only stop potential points, but many times also set up the opposition with golden field position...the old 'double whammy'. While TO's can certainly skew a result (I recall the Holy Cross/Georgetown 'upset', and the Holy Cross/Bucknell 'squeaker'). In the former game, HC had (I think) -5 TO's which completely discounted their ability to move the ball. In the latter, they won 16-13, yet were a -6 in that game, which is unbelieveable. TOs were the only thing that kept Bucknell in that game. Now, going further, the question is, "Did the D "cause" the TO, or was it just sloppy play by the offensive player?" In the final analysis, "Good" teams either don't turn the ball over or are so good they can overcome the mistakes.

[Gil Dobie]

Besides turnover margin, another factor can be penalties.

[Drblankstare]

good stuff. This speaks volumes about gaining extra possessions and winning.

[appfan2008]

interesting stats... i think unh's stat just shows that they are weaker than people give them credit for...

[UNIFanSince1983]

Besides turnover margin, another factor can be penalties.

Very true. That is another thing that worries me about UNI. We have been very good on turnovers this year, but we really have a problem with getting 15 yard penalties (especially on defense) that cost us. I don't know how many times against Illinois State we had a 15 yarder that allowed them to have a drive continue.

[eaglesrthe1]

#5 Option teams are relatively low in the rankings. JMU, Georgia Southern, Wofford fall in the back quarter of playoff teams regarding turnover margin. The natural inclination is to blame this on the option toss, or bad exchange between QB and RBs. The numbers tend to support this especially with GSU (12 fumbles lost, 3 INTs) and JMU (8 fumbles lost; 5 INTs). Yet none of these teams has either given the ball up or gained the ball 20 times or more. Ironically, generally "cleaner" games with the option teams.



People assume that option teams "turn it over more", but in reality they don't. They just fumble more because running the ball is what they do. Why do they rank lower in turnovers both given and gained? Simple. Option teams and the games that they play in are faster games time wise where both teams have fewer possessions and run fewer plays, thus having fewer opportunities for turnovers.

[Cleets]

Perhaps the single most telling statistic in football aside from the score of the game, the turnover margin! How many games have we witnessed where one team dominates another, but yet that one interception or fumble sealed the deal? It's not always the best teams that win, but the ones that make the most of their opportunities.

As we head into the playoffs, I wanted to take a look at the field and do some really rudimentary analysis. The following comes from NCAA stats for the playoff teams and their respective national ranking in this statistical category:

National Ranking School Name Turnovers Gained / Turnovers Given Away
2. Sam Houston State - +34 / -10
4. Eastern Kentucky - +31 / -15
Stony Brook - +28 / -12
6. Northern Iowa - +27 / -12
8. North Dakota State +22 / -8
12. Central Arkansas +29 / -17
16. Old Dominion - +24 / -14
20. Maine - +26 / -17
24. Albany - +22 / -14
Montana - +23 /-15
Towson - +24 / -16
32. Lehigh - +26 / -20
36. App St. - +24 / -19
Norfolk St. +19 / -14
40. Georgia Southern +19 / -15
James Madison - +17 / -13
50. Tennessee Tech - +20 / -19
51. Montana State - +17 / -16
Wofford - +16 / -15
82. New Hampshire - + 24 / -29

With those rankings, a few observations:
#1 - The top two seeded teams, SHSU and NDSU, turned the ball over the least this year. This emphasizes what we are innately know and understand: hold on to the damn ball and your chances of winning improve greatly.

#2 The top three in turnover margin (SHSU, EKU and SBU) all come from what are generally considered weaker conferences. Coincidence or a testament to how good these teams really are? Only time will tell...

#3 New Hampshire - the ONLY playoff team to be in the red on turnover margin. This tells me that UNH is a better team than we think. If they could make the playoffs with this stat, they are a dangerous team to either implode by giving it away, or to surprise and upset some teams should they hold on to the ball. Following New Hampshire, Lehigh (20) and App St. (19) turned the ball over the most.

#4 No greater discrepancy appears than in the match between 4th ranked EKU and 40th ranked JMU. We Dukes fans recognize this as perhaps our team's key to the game. EKU created 6 turnovers (I think) in their 10-7 loss against Kansas St, a top 25 team in the BCS this year. However, this chart shows that EKU actually turned the ball over 15 times, two more times than JMU did (13). Only Wofford (16) gained fewer turnovers than JMU (17). This brings me to point #5:

#5 Option teams are relatively low in the rankings. JMU, Georgia Southern, Wofford fall in the back quarter of playoff teams regarding turnover margin. The natural inclination is to blame this on the option toss, or bad exchange between QB and RBs. The numbers tend to support this especially with GSU (12 fumbles lost, 3 INTs) and JMU (8 fumbles lost; 5 INTs). Yet none of these teams has either given the ball up or gained the ball 20 times or more. Ironically, generally "cleaner" games with the option teams.

So what does all of this mean? I have no freaking clue! But I do believe that somewhere in the above observations will be the story behind the story in the playoff games this year, maybe even a hidden gem that could foretell who will win the National Championship.

POST OF THE YEAR ALERT....!!!!!

[Cleets]

As PURE football posts go... the above is excellent

Impressive


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLeOSOe4GmQ

[ngineer]

Very true. That is another thing that worries me about UNI. We have been very good on turnovers this year, but we really have a problem with getting 15 yard penalties (especially on defense) that cost us. I don't know how many times against Illinois State we had a 15 yarder that allowed them to have a drive continue.

We've had that same illness. I'm not sure what the Rx is....xconfusedx

[BEAR]

I'll take a team that has many turnovers over one that has 1 turnover that breaks the game for a loss. 1 untimely turnover = a loss.

Stroud, Cody pass intercepted by Love, Jestin at the UCA44, Love, Jestin return 2 yards to the UCA46

Bevil, Andre pass complete to Hayes, J.J. for 6 yards to the LU46, fumble forced by Love, Jestin, fumble by Hayes, J.J. recovered by UCA Duvall, Larry at LU47.

Henderson, Brad pass intercepted by Peters, Marcus at the UCA45, Peters, Marcus return 55 yards to the NWLA0, TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:42.

Arndt,Tyler pass intercepted by Love, Jestin at the UCA32, Love, Jestin return 1 yards to the UCA33, out-of-bounds.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Yeah, after I researched and wrote the post, I also thought about penalties as the other factor. No time for me to research the teams and their penalties, but I feel as if JMU is horrendous in this category. Our guys on defense just love to hit, whistle or no whistle.

We had some bad refs (but equally bad to both teams) in the game @Liberty, for example. Roughing the passer call after call. It happened in a few other games too. Honestly, I prefer the players keep their tenacity rather than hold back.

Re: UNH - I don't think their TO margin suggests they are overrated at all, but more the opposite. They are good enough to overcome their mistakes. You have to be REAL good to do that and win consistently as the they have. However, in the playoffs, it will be much harder to overcome.

[Squealofthepig]

For a bit more detailed list, the following link has all FCS teams' turnovers, including by type, which given some weather conditions may be more significant:
http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/football/fcs/stats/team-turnovers

NDSU with two interceptions lost all year - not bad. This helps underline how Brock Jensen tends to make good decisions more times than not. And, EKU with 17 defensive fumble recoveries - say what you want about their schedule, but that's still darned impressive.

[ngineer]

I'll take a team that has many turnovers over one that has 1 turnover that breaks the game for a loss. 1 untimely turnover = a loss.

Stroud, Cody pass intercepted by Love, Jestin at the UCA44, Love, Jestin return 2 yards to the UCA46

Bevil, Andre pass complete to Hayes, J.J. for 6 yards to the LU46, fumble forced by Love, Jestin, fumble by Hayes, J.J. recovered by UCA Duvall, Larry at LU47.

Henderson, Brad pass intercepted by Peters, Marcus at the UCA45, Peters, Marcus return 55 yards to the NWLA0, TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:42.

Arndt,Tyler pass intercepted by Love, Jestin at the UCA32, Love, Jestin return 1 yards to the UCA33, out-of-bounds.

Good point on some TO's being "more effective" than others. Like the "hail Mary" at the end of the half intercepted in the endzone. Not a TO that hurts, and sometimes they can be almost effective as a good punt; but more times than not it results in points lost. Snow and rain games also factor in.

[NoDak 4 Ever]

I'll take a team that has many turnovers over one that has 1 turnover that breaks the game for a loss. 1 untimely turnover = a loss.

Stroud, Cody pass intercepted by Love, Jestin at the UCA44, Love, Jestin return 2 yards to the UCA46

Bevil, Andre pass complete to Hayes, J.J. for 6 yards to the LU46, fumble forced by Love, Jestin, fumble by Hayes, J.J. recovered by UCA Duvall, Larry at LU47.

Henderson, Brad pass intercepted by Peters, Marcus at the UCA45, Peters, Marcus return 55 yards to the NWLA0, TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:42.

Arndt,Tyler pass intercepted by Love, Jestin at the UCA32, Love, Jestin return 1 yards to the UCA33, out-of-bounds.


That is no doubt. There are many who think that DJ McNorton dropping an unforced fumble that was almost a sure touchdown was the difference in the YSU game that would have given NDSU a #1 seed (and stifled a lot of talk)


For a bit more detailed list, the following link has all FCS teams' turnovers, including by type, which given some weather conditions may be more significant:
http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/football/fcs/stats/team-turnovers

NDSU with two interceptions lost all year - not bad. This helps underline how Brock Jensen tends to make good decisions more times than not. And, EKU with 17 defensive fumble recoveries - say what you want about their schedule, but that's still darned impressive.

Not only that but Marcus Williams 7 interceptions include 3 pick 6's. That is huge.