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Go Apps
November 18th, 2011, 11:01 AM
In:
GSU, App State, Towson, Maine, ODU, NDSU, UNI, Montana State, Montana, Sam Houston State, Lehigh, Norfolk State (12)


Likely In:
Wofford, N Hamphire, Illinois State, Liberty, Albany, Tenn Tech (6)



Fighting for final spots:(2)

Indiana State, C. Arkansas, Youngstown St, Georgetown, Bethune/Fla A&M, Furman, Portland State, Delaware, UTC, JMU



Could Grab AB w/ some losses:
Stoney Brook, EKU, Dusquene, Jax State

SF State Gaters
November 18th, 2011, 11:02 AM
a lot of deserving teams...

man i love playoffs! FCS > fbs

Go Apps
November 18th, 2011, 11:03 AM
a lot of deserving teams...

man i love playoffs! FCS > fbs

Yes and it would have been easy to field 24 this year

UNHFootballAlum
November 18th, 2011, 11:04 AM
In:
GSU, App State, Towson, Maine, ODU, NDSU, UNI, Montana State, Montana, Sam Houston State, Lehigh, Norfolk State (12)


Likely In:
Wofford, N Hamphire, Illinois State, Liberty, Albany, Tenn Tech (6)



Fighting for final spots:(2)

Indiana State, C. Arkansas, Youngstown St, Georgetown, Bethune/SC State/Fla A&M, Furman, Portland State, Delaware, UTC, JMU



Could Grab AB w/ some losses:
Stoney Brook, EKU, Dusquene, Jax State

Even with a win Delaware will not have 7 D1 wins

Go Apps
November 18th, 2011, 11:06 AM
Even with a win Delaware will not have 7 D1 wins

Agree but I think they will still be discussed - just saying I think only these teams are even discussed but agree they are likely out same with some others above

kevin1633
November 18th, 2011, 11:26 AM
Possible 7-4 teams after Saturday
New Hampshire- with loss
Illinois St- with loss
JMU- with win
Furman- with win @ Florida
Eastern Kentucky- with win
YSU- with win
Wofford- with loss
Indiana St- with win
Appalachian St- with loss

That is an interesting pool of 7-4 teams to pick from for an At-large bid.

Reign of Terrier
November 18th, 2011, 11:27 AM
In:
GSU, App State, Towson, Maine, ODU, NDSU, UNI, Montana State, Montana, Sam Houston State, Lehigh, Norfolk State (12)


Likely In:
Wofford, N Hamphire, Illinois State, Liberty, Albany, Tenn Tech (6)



Fighting for final spots:(2)

Indiana State, C. Arkansas, Youngstown St, Georgetown, Bethune/SC State/Fla A&M, Furman, Portland State, Delaware, UTC, JMU



Could Grab AB w/ some losses:
Stoney Brook, EKU, Dusquene, Jax State

The MEAC will not grab one of the final 2 spots. UTC/Delaware/Furman/Portland State won't get a spot either, and I highly doubt Georgetown will either. I'd say Central Arkansas and JMU.

Of the likely in, I'd say if Wofford loses this week we won't be in, Liberty and Stony Brook are interchangeable, New Hampshire is a lock, I actually wouldn't have Illinois State in over Indiana or Youngstown state, but I haven't heard the arguments for/against yet.

I'd say as of now the in teams are GSU, App State, Towson, Maine, ODU, NDSU, UNI, Montana State, Montana, Sam Houston State, Lehigh, Norfolk State, and New Hampshire, Central Arkansas (14)

the "win and in, lose and go home " crowd is Wofford, JMU, Liberty/SBU, Tennessee Tech, and Albany (5)

The last team in could be Liberty/Stony Brook, Illinois State, Indiana State, Youngstown State, Eastern Kentucky, and Jacksonville State.

I would more likely pick one of the teams from the MVFC or Big South than OVC of that list.

I've heard from places that the committee might consider teams without 7 D1 wins which could potentially include Wofford, Delaware, Portland State, and James Madison but I highly doubt that will happen. I think we can adequately predict 19 of the 20 teams at this point, but the last one will be a head scratcher either way.

Engineer86
November 18th, 2011, 11:59 AM
Possible 7-4 teams after Saturday
New Hampshire- with loss
Illinois St- with win
JMU- with win
Furman- with win @ Florida
Eastern Kentucky- with win
YSU- with win
Wofford- with loss
Indiana St- with win
Appalachian St- with loss

That is an interesting pool of 7-4 teams to pick from for an At-large bid.

Illinois St is 8-3 with a win
Wofford only has 6 D I wins if they lose ... = Delaware and Portland St (certainly Delaware)

kevin1633
November 18th, 2011, 12:03 PM
Illinois St is 8-3 with a win

Sorry changed it to a loss.

what a weekend it could be

ur2k
November 18th, 2011, 12:03 PM
In:
, Towson, Maine, ODU,



That looks weird

JMU-MRD-DAD
November 18th, 2011, 12:04 PM
Needless to say.....there will be some unhappy folks on Saturday AND Sunday.

Good luck to all...but not too much!!

Go Dukes

Reign of Terrier
November 18th, 2011, 12:06 PM
I think there's a scenario when like 6 or 7 specific teams lose that it comes down to Georgetown or a 6 D1 win MVFC/Socon/CAA team. If it comes up after tomorrow I'll be certain to highlight it

TTUEagles
November 18th, 2011, 12:07 PM
Although I will say (write) that the OVC is as competitive, top-to-bottom, as ever and better as a whole, "we" have not done anything out-of-conference (EIU over Ill St?) / nationally to warrant another bid...It doesn't matter (IMO) what's happened in the past with the OVC. I'd say if EKU or Jacksonville St gets in, that's based on name recognition alone - EKU's history and JSU's history (and big FBS win 2 seasons go)...just an opinion/thought.

mainejeff
November 18th, 2011, 12:33 PM
In:
GSU, App State, Towson, Maine, ODU, NDSU, UNI, Montana State, Montana, Sam Houston State, Lehigh, Norfolk State (12)


Likely In:
Wofford, N Hamphire, Illinois State, Liberty, Albany, Tenn Tech (6)



Fighting for final spots:(2)

Indiana State, C. Arkansas, Youngstown St, Georgetown, Bethune/SC State/Fla A&M, Furman, Portland State, Delaware, UTC, JMU



Could Grab AB w/ some losses:
Stoney Brook, EKU, Dusquene, Jax State

Liberty plays at Stony Brook tomorrow with the AQ on the line.......so Liberty is OUT if they lose and Stony Brook is IN if they win.

JMU_71
November 18th, 2011, 12:48 PM
Someone said something about letting in a 6 win team if all the dominios fall correctly. Well, if they didn't let JMU in last year after beating the #1 FCS team (W&M) and Virginia Tech, then I doubt a 6 win team ever gets in unless they receive and auto-bid.

katstrapper
November 18th, 2011, 12:51 PM
I really think Central Arkansas should be included.

RabidRabbit
November 18th, 2011, 01:00 PM
No 6 D-I win team will be selected. Not when there are teams with 7+ DI wins from AQ conferences available. This is about the ONLY way that MEAC gets a 2nd team in.

There are already 20+ teams with 7+ wins from the AQ conferences.

Engineer86
November 18th, 2011, 01:01 PM
I think there's a scenario when like 6 or 7 specific teams lose that it comes down to Georgetown or a 6 D1 win MVFC/Socon/CAA team. If it comes up after tomorrow I'll be certain to highlight it

If Georgetown gets in over a Wofford or Delaware or another 6 win team from the big 4, then form (7 win rule) wins out over substance. I really hope this does not occur, it will only serve for more milk toast scheduling in the regular season.

Georgetown's first round game was last weekend and they lost.

Fear the Bird
November 18th, 2011, 01:05 PM
I really think Central Arkansas should be included.

If ALL of the following win, UCA may be left home; if just 1 of them loses, they are in IMO: JMU, ISU-r, ISU-b, YSU, Wofford

Stop with the Georgetown/MEAC crap...if all of the teams I just mentioned lost, and I mean ALL of them, then you would see a comparison of Delaware and Furman (assuming wins) before you would even consider a Georgetown or BCU

Go Apps
November 18th, 2011, 01:09 PM
If ALL of the following win, UCA may be left home; if just 1 of them loses, they are in IMO: JMU, ISU-r, ISU-b, YSU, Wofford

Stop with the Georgetown/MEAC crap...if all of the teams I just mentioned lost, and I mean ALL of them, then you would see a comparison of Delaware and Furman (assuming wins) before you would even consider a Georgetown or BCU

Hey I just put any team that has a chance - beyond my list there is nobody else - I think both of those conferences are done but wanted to include everybody still with a remote possibility

WrenFGun
November 18th, 2011, 01:18 PM
I don't think it's "impossible" for a 6 DI win team to get in, but it has to break like it broke a few years ago for UNH.

IMO, in:

CAA: Towson, Maine, Towson, UNH [7 DI wins already]
SoCON: Appalachian State, Ga. Southern
MVFC: North Dakota State, UNI
Big Sky: Montana, Montana State
NEC Champ: Duquesne/Albany
Big South: Liberty/SBU
OVC: TTU/EKU/JSU
Southland: SHSU
Patriot: Lehigh
MEAC: Norfolk State

That's 16 teams that I don't see anyway they are left out based on resume/7 DI wins.

Now, a 17th team is a lock with a win, and that's Wofford. If they win, they're in. If they lose, they're behind the 7 DI teams, probably.

All three MVFC teams the next on the docket, IMO, at least to be analyzed, along with JMU and UCA. JMU would need to win, obviously, to merit consideration, but they're not in a win and in position like Wofford is, IMO. In short, I think the pecking order for the bids are Indiana State, Youngstown State, UCA, Illinois State, JMU. You can discount h2H matchups in the MVFC because all three teams are 1-1 against each other.

--Indiana State has an FBS win. Win, and they, IMO, are in.
--Youngstown State has the best FCS win, so win and they are in.
--UCA is red hot, and JMU has no wins of note, really, even if Liberty is in the field.
--Illinois State might actually be ahead of UCA, but I'm just not sure three MVFC wild-cards would be ahead of UCA. Really a coin-flip, but ISU has beaten ISUb, but no one else.
--JMU has the win over Liberty, but that's about it.

--

In short, it wouldn't be UNTHINKABLE to start considering a 6 DI win team, but I'd be surprised if it came to that. I think in the most likely scenario, JMU loses to UMass, which takes care of itself. If one of Wofford, IsuB or YSU loses, then Illinois State is in, IMO. It becomes more interesting if JMU, Wofford AND 1 of IsuB or YSU loses. Illinois State and UCA would then be locks, and there would be one spot left in the field. Does the committee take 9 win Duquesne or 8 win BCU, or do to they take 6 win Wofford or Furman, who would have the best non 7 DI win resumes..I don't think it comes to it, but that's about the only way it will.

Reign of Terrier
November 18th, 2011, 01:19 PM
If ALL of the following win, UCA may be left home; if just 1 of them loses, they are in IMO: JMU, ISU-r, ISU-b, YSU, Wofford

Stop with the Georgetown/MEAC crap...if all of the teams I just mentioned lost, and I mean ALL of them, then you would see a comparison of Delaware and Furman (assuming wins) before you would even consider a Georgetown or BCU

I think Central Arkansas is in. They have 2 FBS losses (plus and FBS transitional team win), one of which was in overtime and the only FCS team they lost to was top 5 SHSU. Their 8-3 mark is probably better than most of the country. I think the playoff teams will be (in no particular order of seeding) :

Montana
Montana State
Liberty
Maine
Towson
New Hampshire
Old Dominion
James Madison
Norfolk State
NDSU
UNI
Albany
Tennessee Tech
Lehigh
GSU
Wofford
App State
SHSU
Central Arkansas
3rd MVFC team

Fear the Bird
November 18th, 2011, 01:27 PM
I don't think it's "impossible" for a 6 DI win team to get in, but it has to break like it broke a few years ago for UNH.

IMO, in:

CAA: Towson, Maine, Towson, UNH [7 DI wins already]
SoCON: Appalachian State, Ga. Southern
MVFC: North Dakota State, UNI
Big Sky: Montana, Montana State
NEC Champ: Duquesne/Albany
Big South: Liberty/SBU
OVC: TTU/EKU/JSU
Southland: SHSU
Patriot: Lehigh
MEAC: Norfolk State

That's 16 teams that I don't see anyway they are left out based on resume/7 DI wins.

Now, a 17th team is a lock with a win, and that's Wofford. If they win, they're in. If they lose, they're behind the 7 DI teams, probably.

All three MVFC teams the next on the docket, IMO, at least to be analyzed, along with JMU and UCA. JMU would need to win, obviously, to merit consideration, but they're not in a win and in position like Wofford is, IMO. In short, I think the pecking order for the bids are Indiana State, Youngstown State, UCA, Illinois State, JMU. You can discount h2H matchups in the MVFC because all three teams are 1-1 against each other.

--Indiana State has an FBS win. Win, and they, IMO, are in.
--Youngstown State has the best FCS win, so win and they are in.
--UCA is red hot, and JMU has no wins of note, really, even if Liberty is in the field.
--Illinois State might actually be ahead of UCA, but I'm just not sure three MVFC wild-cards would be ahead of UCA. Really a coin-flip, but ISU has beaten ISUb, but no one else.
--JMU has the win over Liberty, but that's about it.

--

In short, it wouldn't be UNTHINKABLE to start considering a 6 DI win team, but I'd be surprised if it came to that. I think in the most likely scenario, JMU loses to UMass, which takes care of itself. If one of Wofford, IsuB or YSU loses, then Illinois State is in, IMO. It becomes more interesting if JMU, Wofford AND 1 of IsuB or YSU loses. Illinois State and UCA would then be locks, and there would be one spot left in the field. Does the committee take 9 win Duquesne or 8 win BCU, or do to they take 6 win Wofford or Furman, who would have the best non 7 DI win resumes..I don't think it comes to it, but that's about the only way it will.

Agree with ALMOST everything you wrote except that it would be Furman and Delaware with the best non 7 D1 win resumes, not Furman and Wofford (Towson and Old Dominion trump Appy and I guess Samford would be next best?)

GaSouthern
November 18th, 2011, 01:30 PM
i'll be pissed off at Wofford if they lose and the SoCon only gets 2 teams in

kevin1633
November 18th, 2011, 01:33 PM
Furman somehow beats Florida on Saturday, would that make them an automatic at-large team?

Fear the Bird
November 18th, 2011, 01:43 PM
Furman somehow beats Florida on Saturday, would that make them an automatic at-large team?

Yes you would have to think the 3 huge wins would trump the 3 questionable at best losses; although that woodsheed beating by GSU still looms large in my opinion, if that were the case

CrunchGriz
November 18th, 2011, 01:44 PM
Furman somehow beats Florida on Saturday, would that make them an automatic at-large team?

They surely would, except it's Georgia Southern playing Florida, not Furman.

StorminASU
November 18th, 2011, 01:45 PM
They surely would, except it's Georgia Southern playing Florida, not Furman.

Yeah, it's definitely Furman vs. Florida. Thanks for playing though.

asknoquarter21
November 18th, 2011, 01:53 PM
They surely would, except it's Georgia Southern playing Florida, not Furman.

GSU @ Alabama

Furman @ Florida

Yes, they would 100% be in with a win.


I think 17 teams are set

Wofford controls their destiny. UCA is probably in and YSU, ISUr, ISUb fight for the final spot.

eaglewraith
November 18th, 2011, 01:53 PM
They surely would, except it's Georgia Southern playing Florida, not Furman.


Yeah, it's definitely Furman vs. Florida. Thanks for playing though.

lolwut

Grizzlies82
November 18th, 2011, 02:21 PM
I understand the homer instinct to want to believe your confernece (fill in the blank) deserves more playoff teams than some other conference. Yet in all the discussions I can't believe some of you are doubting if Central Ark will make it in with an 8-3 record.

There is No Way the committee picks a six win team over an 8-3 team (who played an all Div I schedule). That won't happen. Further, that same 8-3 team will get the nod before a slew of the 7-4 teams still hoping to get in. Don't misunderstand, I'm no fan of Cent. Ark. I can't even say what their mascot is. I know it is nice to dream, but thinking your team will slide in ahead of those guys is nothing more than a dream. So you should count them as "in" as you're picking the final first round slots.

lionsrking2
November 18th, 2011, 02:22 PM
I really think Central Arkansas should be included.

UCA is in though some on here don't seem to believe it.

Reign of Terrier
November 18th, 2011, 02:31 PM
look, the Southland may not be the CAA, the Socon, the Big Sky, or the MVFC, but it's not a bad conference. You can't deny an 8 win team with only one FCS loss in a full scholarship conference IMO, especially when that FCS loss was to a top 5 team and another FBS loss was in overtime.

JMU2004
November 18th, 2011, 02:34 PM
look, the Southland may not be the CAA, the Socon, the Big Sky, or the MVFC, but it's not a bad conference. You can't deny an 8 win team with only one FCS loss in a full scholarship conference IMO, especially when that FCS loss was to a top 5 team and another FBS loss was in overtime.


In the eyes of the selection committee, UCA is 7-3, not 8-3.

lionsrking2
November 18th, 2011, 02:35 PM
In the eyes of the selection committee, UCA is 7-3, not 8-3.

And in the playoff field.

bjtheflamesfan
November 18th, 2011, 02:38 PM
The MEAC will not grab one of the final 2 spots. UTC/Delaware/Furman/Portland State won't get a spot either, and I highly doubt Georgetown will either. I'd say Central Arkansas and JMU.

Of the likely in, I'd say if Wofford loses this week we won't be in, Liberty and Stony Brook are interchangeable, New Hampshire is a lock, I actually wouldn't have Illinois State in over Indiana or Youngstown state, but I haven't heard the arguments for/against yet.

I'd say as of now the in teams are GSU, App State, Towson, Maine, ODU, NDSU, UNI, Montana State, Montana, Sam Houston State, Lehigh, Norfolk State, and New Hampshire, Central Arkansas (14)

the "win and in, lose and go home " crowd is Wofford, JMU, Liberty/SBU, Tennessee Tech, and Albany (5)

The last team in could be Liberty/Stony Brook, Illinois State, Indiana State, Youngstown State, Eastern Kentucky, and Jacksonville State.

I would more likely pick one of the teams from the MVFC or Big South than OVC of that list.

I've heard from places that the committee might consider teams without 7 D1 wins which could potentially include Wofford, Delaware, Portland State, and James Madison but I highly doubt that will happen. I think we can adequately predict 19 of the 20 teams at this point, but the last one will be a head scratcher either way.

Albany is also in with a Duquesne loss

Tod
November 18th, 2011, 02:41 PM
I understand the homer instinct to want to believe your confernece (fill in the blank) deserves more playoff teams than some other conference. Yet in all the discussions I can't believe some of you are doubting if Central Ark will make it in with an 8-3 record.

There is No Way the committee picks a six win team over an 8-3 team (who played an all Div I schedule). That won't happen. Further, that same 8-3 team will get the nod before a slew of the 7-4 teams still hoping to get in. Don't misunderstand, I'm no fan of Cent. Ark. I can't even say what their mascot is. I know it is nice to dream, but thinking your team will slide in ahead of those guys is nothing more than a dream. So you should count them as "in" as you're picking the final first round slots.

That is incorrect. Henderson State.

BisonLakes
November 18th, 2011, 02:42 PM
So basically the winner of Liberty/Stony Brook makes the playoffs, the loser stays home - shame about those narrow JMU and Lehigh losses for the Flames, otherwise they'd have a strong case as an at-large even if they lose Saturday. If they could only finish.

Woof
November 18th, 2011, 02:55 PM
i'll be pissed off at Wofford if they lose and the SoCon only gets 2 teams in

You will not be alone...of course, it won't be the first time I've been disappointed about my Terriers when it comes to the playoffs.xpissedx

Bottom line, we did not show up against GSU or Barney and, despite being banged up, we have no one to blame but ourselves if we don't make it. Here's hoping this discussion remains a hypothetical.

Grizzlies82
November 18th, 2011, 03:18 PM
That is incorrect. Henderson State.

Sorry if that was wrong. Though I still see them "in" even if one of their 8 wins was with a Div II. There are several question marks left but I don't see that as one of them.

Dallas Demon
November 18th, 2011, 07:17 PM
I understand the homer instinct to want to believe your confernece (fill in the blank) deserves more playoff teams than some other conference. Yet in all the discussions I can't believe some of you are doubting if Central Ark will make it in with an 8-3 record.

There is No Way the committee picks a six win team over an 8-3 team (who played an all Div I schedule). That won't happen. Further, that same 8-3 team will get the nod before a slew of the 7-4 teams still hoping to get in. Don't misunderstand, I'm no fan of Cent. Ark. I can't even say what their mascot is. I know it is nice to dream, but thinking your team will slide in ahead of those guys is nothing more than a dream. So you should count them as "in" as you're picking the final first round slots.

Thank you. You are correct, there is lots of bias out there, but there is no way the committee would leave out Central Arkansas and include a 5th team from another conference with a worse record than the Bears who only have 1 FCS loss (that one to at least a top 3 seed) like some are suggesting on this board. I suggest those individuals go pick on a slew of other 7-4 or 6-5 teams to battle for the remaining playoff slot.

Dallas Demon
November 18th, 2011, 07:18 PM
look, the Southland may not be the CAA, the Socon, the Big Sky, or the MVFC, but it's not a bad conference. You can't deny an 8 win team with only one FCS loss in a full scholarship conference IMO, especially when that FCS loss was to a top 5 team and another FBS loss was in overtime.

Exactly.