Let me preface my post by saying that I fully expected WM to be out of the playoff picture if we lost to UR today and that while the Tribe is much improved I'm not sure we're a playoff quality team. However, things have broken our way and out of the teams on the bubble I believe we have the best resume. If the committee objectively executes its duty and truly picks the best team available regardless of conference I think we sneak into the playoffs.
In my mind it comes down to W&M, Maine, Elon, and Liberty.
GPI going into this weekend:
Elon - 11
WM - 12
Maine - 14
Liberty - 27T
Now, WM, Elon and Maine will drop and Liberty will rise, but on monday the order will likely be WM, Maine, Elon and Liberty.
Best Win
WM - @UNH (#11, won today)
Maine - @UMass (unranked, won today)
Liberty - Elon (#12, lost today)
Elon - Furman (#20, lost today)
Bad Loses
WM - none, but JMU was blowout
Maine - none, but took 2OT to put away Hofstra at home
Liberty - Presbyterian
Elon - none, but blown out by Wofford and @Liberty
Common Opponents
Maine and WM
JMU 10-24, 24-48
UNH 24-28, 38-34
UD 27-10, 27-3
UR 17-44, 20-23 OT
URI 37-7, 34-24
NU 20-0, 38-17
Totals = 135 - 113, 181 - 149, Advantage WM
WM and Liberty
VMI 52-17, 38-26, Advantage WM
WM and Elon
UR 20-23 OT, 10-28, Advantage WM
Analysis
WM has seven DI wins and has a win over #11 and playoff bound UNH at UNH. WM lost by 10 to NCST (ACC). WM lost by 10 to Villanova (#6) with our back-up QB, #1 JMU by 24 and to #7 UR by 3. WM has no bad losses, plays in the toughest division of the toughest FCS conference. VMI and NSU are not strong OOC opponents, but WM's margin of victory was what you would expect from a playoff caliber team. WM has lost their last two after winning five straight, but both loses were to top ten teams.
Maine has 8 DI wins, no wins over ranked or playoff-bound opponents, and one of their wins was against non-scholarship Iona. Maine has won 7 of their last 8. The north division of the CAA is weaker than the south, but the committee could favor a second north team over a fourth south team.
Elon has 8 DI wins, but after Furman's loss today, none of their wins will likely be over ranked opponents. Elon lost three of their last four games.
Liberty has 8 DI wins and is the only team in consideration that won today. However, Liberty's SOS is not on par with the other bubble teams. The committee may like to give the Big South champ a playoff spot, but they could just as easily deny Liberty for scheduling two sub-DI opponents. They have a bad loss to Presbyterian, truthfully a game a playoff squad shouldn't lose. Additionally, a 3 point win over YSU, 5 point win over CCU, and a 14 point loss to Lafayette does not look like the resume of a playoff caliber team. One of those by itself could be explained away, but not all four IMO.
WM may not be playoff caliber, but by virtually every objective standard they appear to be the best team available.
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