The FCS Wedge 2023

[ursus arctos horribilis]

The new podcast season has arrived and I uploaded the first episode late last night so you can catch it on all your various outlets.

Google
https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR...RnZS9wb2RjYXN0

Apple
https://podcasts.apple.com/hu/podcas...ge/id557271012

Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/show/61mEEl1qDeDIDIile6g3q0

Amazon
https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/ebe31aae-ea8a-4f5d-8920-29f6c81e648a/the-fcs-wedge

If you have Amazon speakers you can also just say "Alexa, play the latest episode of The FCS Wedge podcast."

I will stick this thread and update as we progress. Me, Kris & Lance always appreciate your input ladies and gents so chime in if you get the chance.

[Catbooster]

Already listened to it. Nice job guys!

[Preferred Walk-On]

You have just made my day, and I will be listening on the drive home this evening. Thanks, fellas!

[MSUBobcat]

Great show fellas!

[SUPharmacist]

Just listened to the first 2 on my way to work. Glad to have you guys back, good work as always.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

A new goes up each Wed. at 4a Mountain and then the same schedule on Thursday as well...usually. Anyway I listed all the outlets in the first post on this thread. Might have one more outlet tomorrow if I get a bit of time to set it up. Here is the episode from today if you have yet to listen.

https://www.blogtalkradio.com/the-fc...13--wk2-review

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Today's episode.

https://www.blogtalkradio.com/the-fc...4--wk3-preview

[Preferred Walk-On]

Thanks for the podcast, and looking forward to tomorrow's release (Week 5 Preview). My thoughts:

1. Thou must keepeth the "Rant of the Week". Love the "being outcoached" by NAU coaches comment, and loved Kris' optimism of the Griz "making a course correction". Lance, do NOT give up this segment.

2. Nice to hear from Tim. I have to agree with him. Heck, if we are really upset about preconceived notions, then maybe we should wait until week 8 (or pick your favorite post-week 4 week here). At week 4, there are 1-2 and 1-3 teams that ARE better than 2-1 and 2-2 teams, and they may have losing records to this point due to their opponents (FBS, maybe?) and not due to what their rankings should be. Yet, some people refuse to rank them...because of their record. Ultimately, one has to overcome preconceived notions for those teams with losing records at week 4. Overcoming preconceived notions are just the nature of the beast, and if one has little faith in another's ability to overcome these notions, why should this faith be different for a different preconceived notion? You are simply asking voters to shift which preconceived notions they need to overcome. Enjoyed the cherry picked example of team that shouldn't be ranked (UC Davis from a few years ago now), but this type of situation goes both ways (not one way, as indicated).

3. The Albany win over Morgan State was in OT (left this out of your mention). I am guessing that Morgan State was just outside your top 25...they are 1-3. All kidding aside, I can see the point, and this was acknowledged in the discussion of the top 25. If that Morgan State game goes like a top 25 vs. team that has yet to even be mentioned as ORV, we would not be having this discussion. Kris, while Morgan State beat Richmond (week 1), they just lost to Towson by 10 pt...in regulation...at home...just last week, so...

Gentlemen, I always appreciate the effort you put into this, and love hearing Tim with his analysis. Nice work! Again, looking forward to the Week 5 Preview show.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Thanks for the podcast, and looking forward to tomorrow's release (Week 5 Preview). My thoughts:

1. Thou must keepeth the "Rant of the Week". Love the "being outcoached" by NAU coaches comment, and loved Kris' optimism of the Griz "making a course correction". Lance, do NOT give up this segment.

2. Nice to hear from Tim. I have to agree with him. Heck, if we are really upset about preconceived notions, then maybe we should wait until week 8 (or pick your favorite post-week 4 week here). At week 4, there are 1-2 and 1-3 teams that ARE better than 2-1 and 2-2 teams, and they may have losing records to this point due to their opponents (FBS, maybe?) and not due to what their rankings should be. Yet, some people refuse to rank them...because of their record. Ultimately, one has to overcome preconceived notions for those teams with losing records at week 4. Overcoming preconceived notions are just the nature of the beast, and if one has little faith in another's ability to overcome these notions, why should this faith be different for a different preconceived notion? You are simply asking voters to shift which preconceived notions they need to overcome. Enjoyed the cherry picked example of team that shouldn't be ranked (UC Davis from a few years ago now), but this type of situation goes both ways (not one way, as indicated).

3. The Albany win over Morgan State was in OT (left this out of your mention). I am guessing that Morgan State was just outside your top 25...they are 1-3. All kidding aside, I can see the point, and this was acknowledged in the discussion of the top 25. If that Morgan State game goes like a top 25 vs. team that has yet to even be mentioned as ORV, we would not be having this discussion. Kris, while Morgan State beat Richmond (week 1), they just lost to Towson by 10 pt...in regulation...at home...just last week, so...

Gentlemen, I always appreciate the effort you put into this, and love hearing Tim with his analysis. Nice work! Again, looking forward to the Week 5 Preview show.

Before I ran the poll I had a view much like Lance and maybe Kris to a lesser extent that just waiting would be better. It's BS once you get into it and see how everyone, or at least a mojority of voters work whatever their system is. Nobody that votes or is involved with the AGS Poll sees it from top to bottom, inside and out as much as I do so I feel like I have fairly good authority on the matter.

If a voter leaves a team off their ballot in the preseason it has almost zero affect, and it would likely have almost zero affect in Wk5 but those mistakes can be made, and sometimes can slip by but for the vast majority of them I can catch it. But the mistake is made sometimes...so why would we want to wait to see or correct that problem (as a voter) until Wk5?

Everybody thinks they are the only ones that do things right and that others are not as good as righteous in their vote as they are. It's is wrong and almost every other voter has the same sort of integrity as all others. Now their opinions on what matters to them, and their view on historical aspects are their own. They would/will be in Wk5 just as they are in Wk0.

Voting in Week 5 we have the exact same amount of information that we would have whether we started in Wk0 or Wk5 so zero advantage there. The difference is a "belief" that others are not analyzing the new information and taking it into account over their original belief that they certainly didn't put a whole lot of weight on when they voted in the pre season. That seems like something obvious to vies with how dynamic the results are in the AGS Poll.

SIU is the prime example that Lance uses as to why, I say it is exactly the opposite. SIU is where they should be considering their record. They are very, very close to what Lance thinks and not everyone thinks or has their system weighted in their head like Lance, Kris, or I may have on our ballots...but they are within a spot or two...that's what we are basing this one?

That is not a strong argument for the AGS Poll. it may be a legit argument for other polls but it does not hold up well under scrutiny on this one.

Sorry to my two favorite podcasters but that **** don't fly if you ask me...and as I said I am f'n god if we are talking about what goes on in this poll and how people work the thing!

I will hand it to you SOB's though. It gets some discussion flow going.

Well played boys.

[Catbooster]

As I was listening to the discussion on the podcast, my thoughts were similar to PWO's and Ursus'. I don't think it would make the poll better to wait until we've gotten 4 weeks into the season. It's still limited data. I hope anyone looking at the poll in the early weeks or preseason would be knowledgeable enough to realize that we're just guessing initially with very little information.

For me personally, the preseason and first few weeks are essentially practice, and trying to get the teams lined up - trying to see which preconceived notions are wrong. I know teams will be making substantial moves. I know I'll have a few teams that don't deserve to be on my poll and a few that should be but aren't. But without the first few weeks of putting the poll together, I'm honestly not sure I would put as much effort into my research until the initial poll got closer. We all have weeks where we are swamped with work/family/etc. and it would be much easier to go lighter on the game reviews/discussions. I suspect the involvement and debates on AGS would suffer during those early weeks.

I'll be a good stereotypical Bobcat fan and pick on my fellow Montanans (the half that root for the wrong team) for an example. Let's say last week and this weeks games were reversed and the Griz had beaten ISU fairly easily at home (which I expect them to do), making them 4-0 with no "good" wins, and then this coming weekend travelled up to NAU and took the same loss that they just did, but a week after the poll started, making them 4-1 with a bad loss and no good wins. In that case, if the poll had started this week, I'm fairly sure that the Griz would still be ranked where they were last week (based on past history and reputation). Heck, they might have even moved up a little. How is that any more accurate than what we had by starting with a preseason poll?

IMO the Griz should have dropped completely out of the poll, but I suspect that those who still have them in their poll would regardless of when the poll started. If I'm right and they continue to struggle, I'm sure they'll drop out of the AGS poll within a few weeks. If I'm wrong I'll be putting them back in my poll in a few weeks. Some are quicker to change their opinion than others but I think the AGS voters do a pretty good job of revising their opinions. Ultimately, I think the poll is largely fodder for discussion early and starts getting more important that we "get it right" as we approach the end of the season.

To use the other extreme, the voters in the coaches' poll don't seem to pay much attention to on the field results but base their votes on preconceived notions all through the season. I doubt that would change if they didn't start their poll until later in the season.