2 weeks to go and the playoff picture is clearing up a bit but there's still plenty to be decided. This week I broke down each conference again and grouped teams together based on how good or not good I think their playoff chances are but I also added a projected bracket to see if that spurs more conversation.
Again, the "Should be in" category is teams I think will be in unless they have an upset or two still hit them. The "Work left to do" category is teams that have some margin for error but can only drop one more game at most. I based my favored by on Massey's win percentage listed under each team at https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/fcs/ratings
MVFC
No teams were eliminated yesterday in the MVFC and it seems like 4 bids is the floor with a possibility for 5 and a remote chance at 6 if things play out right. I didn't put UNI in the "must win out" category since I think they have a shot at 6-5 but would probably need quite a bit of help.
Locks (1):
NDSU (8-1, 5-1) - Favored in both of their last 2
Should be in (3):
SDSU (7-2, 4-2) - Favored in both of their last 2
SIU (6-3, 4-2) - Favored in both of their last 2
Missouri St (6-3, 4-2) - Favored in both of their last 2
Work left to do (2):
South Dakota (6-3, 4-2) - Favored in neither of their last 2
UNI (5-4, 3-3) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
Big Sky
Portland St helped soften the bubble by taking out Weber St before the Vikings are likely eliminated themselves in the last couple weeks. I thought Weber St might have a shot at 6-5 but their win over EWU lost a bit of luster yesterday and they're probably now sitting at 7th at best in the Big Sky pecking order and there's no way the conference gets that many teams in. The Big Sky seems like they'll get 5 in - no more and no less.
Locks (2):
Montana St (8-1, 6-0) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
UC Davis (8-1, 5-1) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
Should be in (3):
Sacramento St (7-2, 6-0) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
EWU (7-2, 4-2) - Favored in both of their last 2
Montana (7-2, 4-2) - Favored in both of their last 2
Must win out (1):
Portland St (5-4, 3-2) - Favored in neither of their last 2
CAA
The CAA is certainly a mess outside of JMU and Nova but all of a sudden it looks like they could sneak a 4th team into the field after Rhode Island's win over UMass. I don't think W&M or URI are locks at 7-4 but they'd be in pretty good shape so both have some margin for error. There will probably be more mayhem in the last 2 weeks in the CAA so I'm gonna stick with just 3 bids for the conference.
Locks (1):
JMU (8-1, 5-1) - Favored in both of their last 2
Should be in (1):
Villanova (6-2, 5-1) - Favored in both of their last 2
Work left to do (2):
William & Mary (6-3, 4-2) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
Rhode Island (6-3, 3-3) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
Must win out (1):
Delaware (5-4, 3-3) - Favored in neither of their last 2
SOCON
ETSU locked themselves into the field but there's still plenty to be decided amongst the 3 in the work left to do category. Mercer plays both ETSU and Chatty to close out so we'll see if they can hang in there. I would think any team that gets to 7 D1 wins in the SOCON is in pretty good shape so the conference could still get 4 but I think 3 is the most likely number and maybe even two if some upsets happen.
Locks (1):
ETSU (8-1, 5-1) - Favored in both of their remaining 2
Work left to do (3):
Chattanooga (6-3, 5-1) - Favored in both of their last 2
VMI (6-3, 4-2) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
Mercer (6-2, 5-1) - Favored in neither of their last 2
AQ7
Sam Houston is locked but that might be it out of the AQ7. EKU still has to play at SHSU and I don't see them making it at 7-4. SFA has a sub-D1 win so they most likely need to get to 8-3 to make it and they have a tough one at UCA next week. I contemplated including UCA in the "Must win out" category but the best they could do is 7-4 with a sub-D1 win and I don't think that'll be good enough. We'll see if anyone outside of SHSU is left here after next week.
Locks:
SHSU (8-0, 6-0) - Favored in both of their last 2
Must win out:
SFA (6-3, 2-2) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
EKU (6-3, 3-1) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
Southland
Regardless of whether they get the autobid both SLU and UIW just need one more win to lock themselves in and they both have a lay-up along with a tough game against Nicholls to finish up with. I don't believe Nicholls can get the autobid anymore unless they win out and HBU knocks off UIW (highly unlikely) but if they win out the Southland could still get 3. I think 2 is most likely though.
Should be in:
SLU (7-2, 5-1) - Favored in both of their last 2
UIW (7-2, 5-1) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
Must win out:
Nicholls (5-4, 4-2) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
Others (likely autobid denoted by an *)
In the Big South the Kennesaw/Monmouth game the final week of the season will be big for the bubble - if KSU loses but finishes 9-2 that means the Big South probable gets 2. Massey gives Monmouth the slight edge but it's basically a toss-up. SEMO could still get the OVC auto at 5-6 if they win out (which would include a season finale win vs UTM and that could tighten the bubble since UTM would be in at 9-2 as an at-large. In the Patriot League the HC @ Fordham game will be big next week since the winner locks up the autobid - an HC win softens the bubble and a Fordham win tightens it since HC could have a shot at an at-large at 8-3. FAMU seems very likely to get to 9-2 and not make the SWAC title game. They'll be a wild card in the at-large discussion if that happens although their SoS is really not good.
Should be in:
Big South - KSU* (8-1, 5-0) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
OVC - UTM* (7-1, 3-0) - Favored in both of their last 2
Work left to do:
Patriot - Holy Cross* (6-2, 3-0) - Favored in both of their last 2
Must win out:
Big South - Monmouth (6-3, 5-0) - Favored in both of their last 2
SWAC - FAMU (7-2, 5-1) - Favored in both or their last 2
Projected bracket
So for locks and teams that should be in I've got 3 at-large from the MVFC, 4 from the Big Sky, and 1 each from the CAA, SOCON, and Southland. That leaves 3 left and I'm going to guess the MVFC, CAA, and SOCON each pick up one more. Here's my crack at the bracket projecting what will happen the last 2 weeks (which will no doubt be horribly wrong) - autobid denoted with an *:
Incarnate Word (8-3) @ UC Davis (9-2) to #1 Sam Houston* (10-0)
Davidson* (9-2) @ Kennesaw St* (10-1) to #8 East Tennessee St (10-1)
Northern Iowa (7-4) @ Montana (8-3) to #5 South Dakota St (9-2)
VMI (7-4) @ William & Mary (7-4) to #4 James Madison (10-1)
Chattanooga* (8-3) @ Southern Illinois (8-3) to #3 North Dakota St* (10-1)
Sacramento St (8-3) @ Southeastern Louisiana* (9-2) to #6 Eastern Washington (9-2)
Sacred Heart* (8-3) @ Holy Cross* (9-2) to #7 Villanova* (9-2)
UT-Martin* (10-1) @ Missouri St (7-4) to #2 Montana St* (10-1)
VMI and William & Mary would be my last 2 in and Rhode Island (7-4) would be my first out. Discuss away.
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