#1 NDSU at #22 Southern Illinois

[Professor Chaos]

Interesting game shaping up in Carbondale this weekend with a number of storylines going into it. NDSU probably needs to win to maintain the #1 seed in the playoffs. They're also looking to match their own FCS record for consecutive wins at 33 (this streak was started in week 10 of 2017 - the previous streak went from week 8 of 2012 until week 11 of 2014). Southern Illinois is looking to cement themselves into the playoffs and have won 5 in a row themselves. However, each team has been feasting on the lesser half of the conference over the last few weeks as NDSU's last 3 have been @YSU, vs WIU, and vs USD whereas SIU's last 5 have been vs YSU, @USD, @ISUb, vs MSU, and @WIU. So this will be the biggest test for each team has had since mid to late October.



As the numbers show the Bison have been dominant this year especially offensively but if there has been a weakness it's been the run defense which is giving up 183.5 rush yards per game at 4.4 yards per carry over their last 4 games. For the last 3 games plenty of those rush yards have come in garbage time but SIU's strength is running the ball behind their RB tandem of DJ Davis (956 yards and 4 TDs at 5.4 ypc) and Javon Williams Jr (921 yards and 16 TDs on 6.6 ypc).

It'll be interesting to see how the Bison stack up against a power run team like SIU and a power back like Williams. The teams that have beaten the Bison in the last few years have done it with a solid ground game and opportunistic passing game. I do think this game is going to be closer than most people think because I think SIU matches up better offensively with NDSU than maybe anyone in the conference outside of SDSU. 5dimes has the line at NDSU -20 with an O/U of 53.5 so they're predicting a score along the lines of 37-17 in favor of NDSU. Massey predicts a 38-14 score in favor of NDSU and Sagarin favors NDSU by about 19.5.

I think SIU plays like a playoff caliber team with nothing to lose and everything to gain in their season finale and the margin is closer than all of them do but I still think my Bison manage to pull out the win.

Who do you have winning and why?

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

NDSU covers the spread.

By the stats, SIU is improved defensively but I will be interested in how they do against a very good offense that can run and pass. Prove it against the Bison.

Offensively, will SIU just try and run the ball? NDSU is #1 in total defense and #2 in scoring defense (#1 in my book...Ivy League school is not a counter to me) and #1 in pass defense. Take away the passing game and make SIU beat them running, which I don't think they will be able to do.

IMO, this game comes down to if SIU can stop the Bison offense. The Bison defense will get stops. Can SIU's defense do the same? I don't think so. Too many weapons for the Bison.

Bison cover the spread: 38-9

[Bisonator]

Kind of funny that SIU is 4th in opponents 3rd down %. Kind of weird outlier there. They appear to be much improved over the last few seasons. 20 is a lot of points on the road. I'll say the skinny dogs cover at home and the Bison finish an unbeaten regular season with a 31-13 win. Hopefully injury free for both teams.

[skinny_uncle]

Kind of funny that SIU is 4th in opponents 3rd down %. Kind of weird outlier there. They appear to be much improved over the last few seasons. 20 is a lot of points on the road. I'll say the skinny dogs cover at home and the Bison finish an unbeaten regular season with a 31-13 win. Hopefully injury free for both teams.

The Salukis are also second in the league in sacks. Those often lead to a third and long which is harder to convert.

[skinny_uncle]

Those stats might be deceptive since SIU played 2 FBS teams.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Those stats might be deceptive since SIU played 2 FBS teams.

UMass and Ark State have a combined record of 7-14. Far cry from an Iowa and a K State.

[skinny_uncle]

UMass and Ark State have a combined record of 7-14. Far cry from an Iowa and a K State.

I'm just saying it is easier to run up stats against a Butler than an Arkansas State (6-4).

[Professor Chaos]

I'm just saying it is easier to run up stats against a Butler than an Arkansas State (6-4).

Schedule strength has been pretty comparable between the two despite SIU's two FBS games to NDSU's 0. Massey has SIU's SOS at 28th (in the FCS) and NDSU's at 22nd. Sagarin has SIU's SOS at 156th (in all of D1) and NDSU's at 162nd.

Part of that is due to the fact that SIU missed UNI this year on the conference schedule whereas NDSU missed Indiana St.

[TennBison]

I'm just saying it is easier to run up stats against a Butler than an Arkansas State (6-4).

Yeah, and it is easier to run up stats against Ind St than it is against UNI. Also much easier to run up stats when your starters are playing a full game (SIU) vs having backups in midway thru the third and 3-4 stringers in at the start of the 4th (NDSU).

[JayJ79]

Those stats might be deceptive since SIU played 2 FBS teams.

that's 2 more than NDSU has played in the past 3 seasons combined!