The at-large field

[Professor Chaos]

Well that was quite a day.... things got a little more clear today but there's still a lot to be decided in the last week. Here's how I see the bubble shaping up. I may have some teams in the "Already in" category that may be in line for the autobid of their conference depending on what happens next weekend but if you give them an autobid you'd have another team from their conference that would be in their place as a locked in at-large instead.


Already in
South Dakota State (7-2)
Delaware (7-3)
Towson (7-3)
Stony Brook (7-3)
James Madison (7-3)
UC Davis (8-2)
Weber St (8-2)


Win and in (lose and on the bubble)
Chattanooga (6-4) - but they play SEC South Carolina so not very likely, if they lose they're out
Wofford (7-3)#
Elon (6-3) - Plays Maine
Nicholls (7-3)*
North Carolina A&T (8-2)^


Win and on the bubble
Montana (6-4) - Plays Montana St
Montana St (6-4) - Plays Montana
Idaho St (6-4) - Plays Weber St
Indiana St (6-4) - Plays WIU
Monmouth (7-3)
Furman (5-4)#
Southeast Missouri State (7-3)
North Dakota (6-4)
Incarnate Word (6-4)*%
Abilene Christian (6-4)
Lamar (6-4) - Plays McNeese
McNeese (6-4) - Plays Lamar


Win and hope for a lot of help
Western Illinois (5-5) - Plays Indiana St
Northern Iowa (5-5)


*One of these teams gets the Southland auto - Nicholls controls their own destiny
^If they win and FAMU loses next week they go to Celebration Bowl thus opening up a spot
#If ETSU loses to Samford the SOCON auto goes to Wofford or Furman so that could strengthen the bubble since ETSU is likely in no matter what.
%They're done (until they play Iowa St on 12/1) so they're on the bubble already if Nicholls wins next week and they don't get the Southland auto.


So that's 7 at-large that are already locked up. 5 more could be claimed with wins next week although 2 of them have tough games with Chatty having the toughest task with South Carolina. That leaves 12 teams on the bubble hoping for losses above them and then there's the 2 MVFC teams hoping for a bubble implosion. One of those teams will be the Southland auto as well so that'll soften the bubble a bit.