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  1. #21
    FCS Expert wapiti's Avatar
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    Re: Playing with Bubbles

    If you are going to include the 5-4 MVFC teams then you will also need to include both Montana and Montana State in your list of bubble teams.
    One of them will for sure be eliminated after Cat/griz though.


    Quote Originally Posted by JSUSoutherner View Post
    This is a breakdown of likely # of at-larges per conference.

    Auto-Bids (based off right now): 10 spots
    Big Sky- UC Davis
    Big South- Kennesaw
    CAA- Delaware
    MVFC- Ungulates
    NEC- Sacred Heart
    OVC- SEMO
    Patriot- Colgate
    Pioneer- San Diego
    SoCon- ETSU
    Southland- McNeese

    Possible At- Larges: 14 spots

    Big Sky: 3
    Weber State
    Eastern Washington
    Idaho State

    CAA: 5
    Maine
    Elon
    JMU
    Towson
    Stony Brook

    IND: 1
    UND

    MEAC: 1
    NC A&T

    MVFC: 5
    WIU
    UNI
    SDSU
    ISUr
    ISUb

    OVC: 1
    Jax State

    Southern: 3
    Wofford
    Samford
    Furman

    Southland: 1
    Nicholls

    At-larges Available: 14
    At-larges Possible: 20

    So, we’re five teams over capacity… or so it looks. Let’s look at a few things that could be bubble busters.

    Weber State (7-2) @ Idaho State (6-3)-11/17
    A Weber win here would knock Idaho State (they have a sub D1 win) out and would pretty much seal the deal for Weber State.

    James Madison (6-3) @ Towson (6-3)- 11/17
    This weekend JMU has a solid Rhody squad and Towson is playing Elon. Assuming they both win they loser of this matchup could get left at home, however, if one or both teams lose this weekend then this matchup will absolutely become a must-win game.

    Delaware (7-2) @ Stony Brook (6-3)- 11/10
    A win for Delaware here would guarantee a spot even if some magic voodoo keeps them from the auto. A 7-4 Stony Brook is probably in unless they get dump trucked and look bad against Albany. Losing to Delaware would by no means be a death sentence but the margin for error would shrink drastically for SB.

    The UNDies (5-4)
    7-4 is a possibility, yes, but the resume is pretty garbage. These guys are a long shot already and they have Portland State and NAU to finish the season. It’s going to take a whole helluva lot of bubble bursting to get these F’Hawkers into the postseason. That Idaho loss is going to loom large.

    NC A&T (7-2) @ NCCU (4-4)- 11/17
    Assuming FAMU and NCAT both win out FAMU will go to the Celebration Bowl and NCAT has a solid case for an at-large. There are two scenarios, however, where the MEAC loses their postseason representative entirely:
    1.) FAMU drops a game and NC A&T goes to ATL. No way FAMU gets in at 7-4.
    2.) NC A&T drops this game right here. (or the one this weekend vs. Savannah State, though I think that unlikely)

    All the 5-4 MVFC teams. (WIU, UNI, ISUb, ISUr)
    It’s a fact of life that MVFC fans are going to push for all of their 6-5 teams into the post season. I think a 7-4 MVFC is a lock but let’s take a look at what might happen should a team finish 6-5.

    WIU:
    Good Wins: UNI
    The Leathernecks don’t have any ‘terrible’ losses but their resume is extremely meh.

    • 1 score win over a horrid Youngstown team
    • Beat SIU by just 3
    • Lost to ISUr (which would be a deciding factor if WIU and ISUr both finish 6-5)
    • Beat a mediocre Griz team by 4 at home.

    There’s nothing for the Leathernecks that I think the committee will look at and say “Wow, their record doesn’t represent how good this team actually is”
    The Leathernecks last two are South Dakota and ISUb. If they drop one it HAS to be the game against ISUb and they have to be ISUb fans this weekend.

    UNI:
    Good Wins: ISUr and SDSU
    UNI I could see going either way. Their last two are Youngstown and Missouri State, both of which aren’t pretty to lose to. UNI has the benefit of beating ISUr and they blanked ISUb so I think if it was UNI vs either of those two UNI will easily get the nod. The only real “negative” on UNI’s resume is that Montana loss.

    ISUr vs ISUb- 11/10
    Both of these teams have sub-D1 wins. Both MUST win out. End of story. I think ISUr’s resume would be more appealing than ISUb’s at the end of the season.

    If I had to rank each team on likelihood to make at 6-5 with 5 being most likely and 1 being no chance:
    UNI- 5
    ISUr-4
    WIU-3
    ISUb-1.5

    Ol’ Jax State (7-2)
    I know, I know… “Who have they beat!?” The answer is nobody. However, whether you like it or not, the committee will look and think “Oh, they lost to three ranked teams, two of the losses they had a combined 9 turnovers, and wow look at that stat line vs. NC A&T”. A loss to Tennessee State this weekend is a death sentence though I think a respectable performance vs Kennesaw and this reputation coaches and Stats voters apparently think we have will get Jax State a ticket.

    The SoCon
    This conference is about as clear as mud on who will get in but I think how many is already fairly set. Should ETSU not be the Auto, they’re in. Furman will be 6-4 and I think that’s really going to be suspect. I think 1 at large is a lock and 2 is fairly likely barring chaos. SoCon is NOT getting 4 teams in. You ain’t the MVFC.

    Nicholls State (6-3)
    The Southland is NOT getting a 4 loss team in. Plain and simple. That leaves us with Nicholls. Because if McNeese loses the Auto they're staying at home and the Southland gets 1 team. Nicholls only “bad” loss is Abilene, but they have a P5 (no matter how bad, it’s a P5 win) and you could say the McNeese game was influenced by turnovers. Their only other loss is an FBS loss.



    So I think based on the above, # of at larges per conference will look like this:
    Big Sky: 2
    Big South: 0
    CAA: 4
    MVFC: 3
    Indy: 0
    MEAC: 1
    NEC: 0
    OVC: 1
    Patriot: lul
    Pioneer: 0
    SoCon: 2
    Southland: 1

    2+4+3+1+1+lul+2+1=14

    Thoughts?

  2. #22
    AGS FCS Champion

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    Re: Playing with Bubbles

    Quote Originally Posted by wapiti View Post
    If you are going to include the 5-4 MVFC teams then you will also need to include both Montana and Montana State in your list of bubble teams.
    One of them will for sure be eliminated after Cat/griz though.
    I don't think a 4 loss Montana or MNST gets in. Both of their "big" wins came wayyy early in the season and they haven't done much since.

    7-4 Big Sky teams haven't had much luck getting in lately.

    See: EWU 2017 and UND 2015



    Quote Originally Posted by chattownmocs View Post
    Grass is a disaster. He has 2 senior RBs and he brought in an auburn reject to be his starter. It's sad how in shambles your roster is right now. And it happened so quickly. Pathetic. I guess you should expect it from a career high school coach. Who btw, underachieved in high school. What a loser.

  3. #23
    FCS Champion
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    Re: Playing with Bubbles

    Quote Originally Posted by Sycamore62 View Post
    I have us at 0% 6-5 and 60% at 7-4
    That's valid considering the DII win. 7-4 is 6-4 against DI. I think Illinois State is in a little better shape...they had a NAIA win, but they also had an FBS win (crap team, but still FBS), so if they finish 6-4 against DI, I think they have a leg up on you guys. It won't really come down to a decision between the ISU's though, because one will lose on Saturday and the winner will still have a shot.
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  4. #24
    FCS Champion WestCoastAggie's Avatar
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    Re: Playing with Bubbles

    Should UIW and Lamar be on this bubble list? What about Chatty?

  5. #25
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    Re: Playing with Bubbles

    Quote Originally Posted by WestCoastAggie View Post
    Should UIW and Lamar be on this bubble list? What about Chatty?
    No.

  6. #26
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    Re: Playing with Bubbles

    Quote Originally Posted by JSUSoutherner View Post
    I don't think a 4 loss Montana or MNST gets in. Both of their "big" wins came wayyy early in the season and they haven't done much since.

    7-4 Big Sky teams haven't had much luck getting in lately.

    See: EWU 2017 and UND 2015
    IIRC the committee cares about how you are trending at the end of the season not the beginning. They want teams who are not sliding into November (YSU and pick the Eric W years) but surging into November.

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  7. #27
    I'm a Lumberjack and I'm OK dbackjon's Avatar
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    Re: Playing with Bubbles

    Quote Originally Posted by JALMOND View Post
    WIU has a loss to Montana State. Maybe not "terrible" but should be taken into account, especially if you think the Big Sky will only get 2 at-larges in.
    Montana State is 5-4.

    Left: Home vs UNC, @Montana. 7-4 MSU gets in.

  8. #28
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    Re: Playing with Bubbles

    Quote Originally Posted by TheKingpin28 View Post
    IIRC the committee cares about how you are trending at the end of the season not the beginning. They want teams who are not sliding into November (YSU and pick the Eric W years) but surging into November.

    Sent from my SM-J727V using Tapatalk
    Well the current trend for both of them can be summed up in one sentence:

    The only win between the two of them since September is Idaho.

  9. #29
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    Re: Playing with Bubbles

    Quote Originally Posted by JSUSoutherner View Post
    Well the current trend for both of them can be summed up in one sentence:

    The only win between the two of them since September is Idaho.
    That's bad.

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  10. #30
    Major FCS Advocate fmftballmgr's Avatar
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    Re: Playing with Bubbles

    Quote Originally Posted by JSUSoutherner View Post

    Ol’ Jax State (7-2)
    I know, I know… “Who have they beat!?” The answer is nobody. However, whether you like it or not, the committee will look and think “Oh, they lost to three ranked teams, two of the losses they had a combined 9 turnovers, and wow look at that stat line vs. NC A&T”. A loss to Tennessee State this weekend is a death sentence though I think a respectable performance vs Kennesaw and this reputation coaches and Stats voters apparently think we have will get Jax State a ticket.

    After last week this is the route you all are going to have to go cause right now I have no faith that we are going to take care of SEMO for you. I have no idea which team is going to show up. The team that started 4-0 in conference or the team that has went 0-2 since and losing to a winless TTU team.

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