This is a breakdown of likely # of at-larges per conference.
Auto-Bids (based off right now): 10 spots
Big Sky- UC Davis
Big South- Kennesaw
CAA- Delaware
MVFC- Ungulates
NEC- Sacred Heart
OVC- SEMO
Patriot- Colgate
Pioneer- San Diego
SoCon- ETSU
Southland- McNeese
Possible At- Larges: 14 spots
Big Sky: 3
Weber State
Eastern Washington
Idaho State
CAA: 5
Maine
Elon
JMU
Towson
Stony Brook
IND: 1
UND
MEAC: 1
NC A&T
MVFC: 5
WIU
UNI
SDSU
ISUr
ISUb
OVC: 1
Jax State
Southern: 3
Wofford
Samford
Furman
Southland: 1
Nicholls
At-larges Available: 14
At-larges Possible: 20
So, we’re five teams over capacity… or so it looks. Let’s look at a few things that could be bubble busters.
Weber State (7-2) @ Idaho State (6-3)-11/17
A Weber win here would knock Idaho State (they have a sub D1 win) out and would pretty much seal the deal for Weber State.
James Madison (6-3) @ Towson (6-3)- 11/17
This weekend JMU has a solid Rhody squad and Towson is playing Elon. Assuming they both win they loser of this matchup could get left at home, however, if one or both teams lose this weekend then this matchup will absolutely become a must-win game.
Delaware (7-2) @ Stony Brook (6-3)- 11/10
A win for Delaware here would guarantee a spot even if some magic voodoo keeps them from the auto. A 7-4 Stony Brook is probably in unless they get dump trucked and look bad against Albany. Losing to Delaware would by no means be a death sentence but the margin for error would shrink drastically for SB.
The UNDies (5-4)
7-4 is a possibility, yes, but the resume is pretty garbage. These guys are a long shot already and they have Portland State and NAU to finish the season. It’s going to take a whole helluva lot of bubble bursting to get these F’Hawkers into the postseason. That Idaho loss is going to loom large.
NC A&T (7-2) @ NCCU (4-4)- 11/17
Assuming FAMU and NCAT both win out FAMU will go to the Celebration Bowl and NCAT has a solid case for an at-large. There are two scenarios, however, where the MEAC loses their postseason representative entirely:
1.) FAMU drops a game and NC A&T goes to ATL. No way FAMU gets in at 7-4.
2.) NC A&T drops this game right here. (or the one this weekend vs. Savannah State, though I think that unlikely)
All the 5-4 MVFC teams. (WIU, UNI, ISUb, ISUr)
It’s a fact of life that MVFC fans are going to push for all of their 6-5 teams into the post season. I think a 7-4 MVFC is a lock but let’s take a look at what might happen should a team finish 6-5.
WIU:
Good Wins: UNI
The Leathernecks don’t have any ‘terrible’ losses but their resume is extremely meh.
- 1 score win over a horrid Youngstown team
- Beat SIU by just 3
- Lost to ISUr (which would be a deciding factor if WIU and ISUr both finish 6-5)
- Beat a mediocre Griz team by 4 at home.
There’s nothing for the Leathernecks that I think the committee will look at and say “Wow, their record doesn’t represent how good this team actually is”
The Leathernecks last two are South Dakota and ISUb. If they drop one it HAS to be the game against ISUb and they have to be ISUb fans this weekend.
UNI:
Good Wins: ISUr and SDSU
UNI I could see going either way. Their last two are Youngstown and Missouri State, both of which aren’t pretty to lose to. UNI has the benefit of beating ISUr and they blanked ISUb so I think if it was UNI vs either of those two UNI will easily get the nod. The only real “negative” on UNI’s resume is that Montana loss.
ISUr vs ISUb- 11/10
Both of these teams have sub-D1 wins. Both MUST win out. End of story. I think ISUr’s resume would be more appealing than ISUb’s at the end of the season.
If I had to rank each team on likelihood to make at 6-5 with 5 being most likely and 1 being no chance:
UNI- 5
ISUr-4
WIU-3
ISUb-1.5
Ol’ Jax State (7-2)
I know, I know… “Who have they beat!?” The answer is nobody. However, whether you like it or not, the committee will look and think “Oh, they lost to three ranked teams, two of the losses they had a combined 9 turnovers, and wow look at that stat line vs. NC A&T”. A loss to Tennessee State this weekend is a death sentence though I think a respectable performance vs Kennesaw and this reputation coaches and Stats voters apparently think we have will get Jax State a ticket.
The SoCon
This conference is about as clear as mud on who will get in but I think how many is already fairly set. Should ETSU not be the Auto, they’re in. Furman will be 6-4 and I think that’s really going to be suspect. I think 1 at large is a lock and 2 is fairly likely barring chaos. SoCon is NOT getting 4 teams in. You ain’t the MVFC.
Nicholls State (6-3)
The Southland is NOT getting a 4 loss team in. Plain and simple. That leaves us with Nicholls. Because if McNeese loses the Auto they're staying at home and the Southland gets 1 team. Nicholls only “bad” loss is Abilene, but they have a P5 (no matter how bad, it’s a P5 win) and you could say the McNeese game was influenced by turnovers. Their only other loss is an FBS loss.
So I think based on the above, # of at larges per conference will look like this:
Big Sky: 2
Big South: 0
CAA: 4
MVFC: 3
Indy: 0
MEAC: 1
NEC: 0
OVC: 1
Patriot: lul
Pioneer: 0
SoCon: 2
Southland: 1
2+4+3+1+1+lul+2+1=14
Thoughts?
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Originally Posted by Model Citizen
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