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  1. #1
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    Playing with Bubbles

    This is a breakdown of likely # of at-larges per conference.

    Auto-Bids (based off right now): 10 spots
    Big Sky- UC Davis
    Big South- Kennesaw
    CAA- Delaware
    MVFC- Ungulates
    NEC- Sacred Heart
    OVC- SEMO
    Patriot- Colgate
    Pioneer- San Diego
    SoCon- ETSU
    Southland- McNeese

    Possible At- Larges: 14 spots

    Big Sky: 3
    Weber State
    Eastern Washington
    Idaho State

    CAA: 5
    Maine
    Elon
    JMU
    Towson
    Stony Brook

    IND: 1
    UND

    MEAC: 1
    NC A&T

    MVFC: 5
    WIU
    UNI
    SDSU
    ISUr
    ISUb

    OVC: 1
    Jax State

    Southern: 3
    Wofford
    Samford
    Furman

    Southland: 1
    Nicholls

    At-larges Available: 14
    At-larges Possible: 20

    So, we’re five teams over capacity… or so it looks. Let’s look at a few things that could be bubble busters.

    Weber State (7-2) @ Idaho State (6-3)-11/17
    A Weber win here would knock Idaho State (they have a sub D1 win) out and would pretty much seal the deal for Weber State.

    James Madison (6-3) @ Towson (6-3)- 11/17
    This weekend JMU has a solid Rhody squad and Towson is playing Elon. Assuming they both win they loser of this matchup could get left at home, however, if one or both teams lose this weekend then this matchup will absolutely become a must-win game.

    Delaware (7-2) @ Stony Brook (6-3)- 11/10
    A win for Delaware here would guarantee a spot even if some magic voodoo keeps them from the auto. A 7-4 Stony Brook is probably in unless they get dump trucked and look bad against Albany. Losing to Delaware would by no means be a death sentence but the margin for error would shrink drastically for SB.

    The UNDies (5-4)
    7-4 is a possibility, yes, but the resume is pretty garbage. These guys are a long shot already and they have Portland State and NAU to finish the season. It’s going to take a whole helluva lot of bubble bursting to get these F’Hawkers into the postseason. That Idaho loss is going to loom large.

    NC A&T (7-2) @ NCCU (4-4)- 11/17
    Assuming FAMU and NCAT both win out FAMU will go to the Celebration Bowl and NCAT has a solid case for an at-large. There are two scenarios, however, where the MEAC loses their postseason representative entirely:
    1.) FAMU drops a game and NC A&T goes to ATL. No way FAMU gets in at 7-4.
    2.) NC A&T drops this game right here. (or the one this weekend vs. Savannah State, though I think that unlikely)

    All the 5-4 MVFC teams. (WIU, UNI, ISUb, ISUr)
    It’s a fact of life that MVFC fans are going to push for all of their 6-5 teams into the post season. I think a 7-4 MVFC is a lock but let’s take a look at what might happen should a team finish 6-5.

    WIU:
    Good Wins: UNI
    The Leathernecks don’t have any ‘terrible’ losses but their resume is extremely meh.

    • 1 score win over a horrid Youngstown team
    • Beat SIU by just 3
    • Lost to ISUr (which would be a deciding factor if WIU and ISUr both finish 6-5)
    • Beat a mediocre Griz team by 4 at home.

    There’s nothing for the Leathernecks that I think the committee will look at and say “Wow, their record doesn’t represent how good this team actually is”
    The Leathernecks last two are South Dakota and ISUb. If they drop one it HAS to be the game against ISUb and they have to be ISUb fans this weekend.

    UNI:
    Good Wins: ISUr and SDSU
    UNI I could see going either way. Their last two are Youngstown and Missouri State, both of which aren’t pretty to lose to. UNI has the benefit of beating ISUr and they blanked ISUb so I think if it was UNI vs either of those two UNI will easily get the nod. The only real “negative” on UNI’s resume is that Montana loss.

    ISUr vs ISUb- 11/10
    Both of these teams have sub-D1 wins. Both MUST win out. End of story. I think ISUr’s resume would be more appealing than ISUb’s at the end of the season.

    If I had to rank each team on likelihood to make at 6-5 with 5 being most likely and 1 being no chance:
    UNI- 5
    ISUr-4
    WIU-3
    ISUb-1.5

    Ol’ Jax State (7-2)
    I know, I know… “Who have they beat!?” The answer is nobody. However, whether you like it or not, the committee will look and think “Oh, they lost to three ranked teams, two of the losses they had a combined 9 turnovers, and wow look at that stat line vs. NC A&T”. A loss to Tennessee State this weekend is a death sentence though I think a respectable performance vs Kennesaw and this reputation coaches and Stats voters apparently think we have will get Jax State a ticket.

    The SoCon
    This conference is about as clear as mud on who will get in but I think how many is already fairly set. Should ETSU not be the Auto, they’re in. Furman will be 6-4 and I think that’s really going to be suspect. I think 1 at large is a lock and 2 is fairly likely barring chaos. SoCon is NOT getting 4 teams in. You ain’t the MVFC.

    Nicholls State (6-3)
    The Southland is NOT getting a 4 loss team in. Plain and simple. That leaves us with Nicholls. Because if McNeese loses the Auto they're staying at home and the Southland gets 1 team. Nicholls only “bad” loss is Abilene, but they have a P5 (no matter how bad, it’s a P5 win) and you could say the McNeese game was influenced by turnovers. Their only other loss is an FBS loss.



    So I think based on the above, # of at larges per conference will look like this:
    Big Sky: 2
    Big South: 0
    CAA: 4
    MVFC: 3
    Indy: 0
    MEAC: 1
    NEC: 0
    OVC: 1
    Patriot: lul
    Pioneer: 0
    SoCon: 2
    Southland: 1

    2+4+3+1+1+lul+2+1=14

    Thoughts?
    Last edited by JSUSoutherner; November 6th, 2018 at 02:49 PM.



    Quote Originally Posted by chattownmocs View Post
    Grass is a disaster. He has 2 senior RBs and he brought in an auburn reject to be his starter. It's sad how in shambles your roster is right now. And it happened so quickly. Pathetic. I guess you should expect it from a career high school coach. Who btw, underachieved in high school. What a loser.

  2. #2
    Major FCS Ruler Model Citizen's Avatar
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    Re: Playing with Bubbles

    I'm forever blowing bubbles,
    Pretty bubbles in the air,
    They fly so high, nearly reach the sky,
    Then like my dreams they fade and die

  3. #3
    AGS FCS Champion

    JSUSoutherner's Avatar
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    Re: Playing with Bubbles

    Quote Originally Posted by Model Citizen View Post
    I'm forever blowing bubbles,
    Pretty bubbles in the air,
    They fly so high, nearly reach the sky,
    Then like my dreams they fade and die
    Touching.



    Quote Originally Posted by chattownmocs View Post
    Grass is a disaster. He has 2 senior RBs and he brought in an auburn reject to be his starter. It's sad how in shambles your roster is right now. And it happened so quickly. Pathetic. I guess you should expect it from a career high school coach. Who btw, underachieved in high school. What a loser.

  4. #4

    Re: Playing with Bubbles

    I think you are pretty spot on. Only 3 possible differences (assuming A&T doesn't win the conference) is with the CAA, MVFC, and SoCon. If Samford or Furman wins the auto, then there are two at larges. If ETSU wins the auto, I think only Wofford gets in and the remaining spot goes to either the CAA or the MVFC.

  5. #5
    AGS FCS Champion

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    Re: Playing with Bubbles

    Quote Originally Posted by Mayville Bison View Post
    I think you are pretty spot on. Only 3 possible differences (assuming A&T doesn't win the conference) is with the CAA, MVFC, and SoCon. If Samford or Furman wins the auto, then there are two at larges. If ETSU wins the auto, I think only Wofford gets in and the remaining spot goes to either the CAA or the MVFC.
    Yup. The SoCon will be the one to watch down the stretch. Plus, like I mentioned, McNeese and FAMU losing could open up spots as well.



    Quote Originally Posted by chattownmocs View Post
    Grass is a disaster. He has 2 senior RBs and he brought in an auburn reject to be his starter. It's sad how in shambles your roster is right now. And it happened so quickly. Pathetic. I guess you should expect it from a career high school coach. Who btw, underachieved in high school. What a loser.

  6. #6
    FCS Champion Bison56's Avatar
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    Re: Playing with Bubbles

    MVFC- Ungulates

    Who is this?
    Internet tough guy

  7. #7
    AGS FCS Champion

    JSUSoutherner's Avatar
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    Re: Playing with Bubbles

    Quote Originally Posted by Bison56 View Post
    MVFC- Ungulates

    Who is this?
    Google it. You might learn something.

    I'll give you a hint:
    Rabbits, Penguins, Birds, Trees, Cats, Bears, and Dogs don't have hooves.



    Quote Originally Posted by chattownmocs View Post
    Grass is a disaster. He has 2 senior RBs and he brought in an auburn reject to be his starter. It's sad how in shambles your roster is right now. And it happened so quickly. Pathetic. I guess you should expect it from a career high school coach. Who btw, underachieved in high school. What a loser.

  8. #8
    AGS FCS Master JALMOND's Avatar
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    Re: Playing with Bubbles

    WIU has a loss to Montana State. Maybe not "terrible" but should be taken into account, especially if you think the Big Sky will only get 2 at-larges in.

  9. #9
    FCS Expert
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    Re: Playing with Bubbles

    Maine wins CAA if they win out.
    "\\V// for Villanova. \\V// for Victory."
    2009 National Champions
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  10. #10
    AGS FCS Champion youngterrier's Avatar
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    Re: Playing with Bubbles

    Seems about right

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

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