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  1. #151
    Major FCS Ruler FUGameBreaker's Avatar
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    Re: SoCon

    Quote Originally Posted by kdinva View Post
    VMI @ WCU: WCU scored more points, VMI failed 3 times in regulation going for it on 4th down.....failed twice going for two......and threw a pick-6.
    VMI v. ETSU: VMI in 4th period alone got within ETSU's 30 three times.....got zero points.
    VMI v Mercer: was 3-7 in 4th down conversions (two of those failures inside the Mercer 6 yard line)....VMI punter dropped the snap, gave mercer ball at VMI 17....Bears got TD there.....VMI QB got sacked, lost fumble inside VMI 20......Bears another gift TD....
    VMI vs. ElCid: twice failed going for two (VMI is 2-7 in 2 point conv. attempts, and VMI kickers have missed FIVE PAT Kicks), including one that would have tied the game late (just like WCU game), Cid blocked a VMI punt, converted into TD......VMI botched a fake FG attempt, went for it on 4th down from their own 32, failed, Citadel converted that into TD.

    also some blunders @ UTC.........VMI could easily be 4-3 in Conf...


    Then I guess the 'Dins better come in ready for a fight in Lexington

  2. #152
    AGS FCS Champion youngterrier's Avatar
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    Re: Legit question - Can Furman possibly make playoffs at 6-4 ?

    I have to hand it to some Furman fans, they're still very enthusiastic even though their playoff hopes are but squashed.

    Meanwhile, now that Wofford lost to Samford, I've mellowed. I know we aren't going to get farther than the game against the seed or the quarterfinals (at best), so now I'm more interested in national FCS developments. I could not follow Wofford more than passively if we had 3 or more losses for most of the season.

  3. #153
    Major FCS Ruler FUGameBreaker's Avatar
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    Re: Legit question - Can Furman possibly make playoffs at 6-4 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by youngterrier View Post
    I have to hand it to some Furman fans, they're still very enthusiastic even though their playoff hopes are but squashed.

    Meanwhile, now that Wofford lost to Samford, I've mellowed. I know we aren't going to get farther than the game against the seed or the quarterfinals (at best), so now I'm more interested in national FCS developments. I could not follow Wofford more than passively if we had 3 or more losses for most of the season.


    I know it makes you feel better to keep repeating asinine things like Furman's playoff hopes being squashed, but the truth is the 'Dins are very much alive still. Carry on

  4. #154
    AGS FCS Champion youngterrier's Avatar
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    Re: Legit question - Can Furman possibly make playoffs at 6-4 ?

    It's not asinine. Furman probably has a 20% chance (tops) of making the playoffs.

    My comment is accurate.

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

  5. #155
    First Class FCS Ruler gofurman's Avatar
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    Re: Legit question - Can Furman possibly make playoffs at 6-4 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by youngterrier View Post
    It's not asinine. Furman probably has a 20% chance (tops) of making the playoffs.

    My comment is accurate.

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
    YT is not asinine. Though I do think there is a difference in 'squashed' and 10-20%

  6. #156
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    Re: Legit question - Can Furman possibly make playoffs at 6-4 ?

    Any way, the answer to the thread question is:

    **** NO

  7. #157
    First Class FCS Ruler gofurman's Avatar
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    Re: Legit question - Can Furman possibly make playoffs at 6-4 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by youngterrier View Post
    . I have to hand it to some Furman fans, they're still very enthusiastic even though their playoff hopes are but squashed.

    Meanwhile, now that Wofford lost to Samford, I've mellowed. I know we aren't going to get farther than the game against the seed or the quarterfinals (at best), so now I'm more interested in national FCS developments. I could not follow Wofford more than passively if we had 3 or more losses for most of the season.
    I have to hand it to some Furman fans, they're still very enthusiastic even though their playoff hopes are but squashed. “

    Yep. YT I think from discussions the thing is we see Hendrix as maybe we finally got the guy.

    Lamb and Fowler just didn’t seem to get DL and OL - where the game is won ! Both Good guys - good men. Classy guys. But not head coaches in my opinion - NO OFFENSE TO MERCER.. maybe Lamb works out as a playoff coach there. HOPE HE DOES. Good for the conference if Mercer makes playoffs

    MY POINT is Hendrix took a THREE win 2016 Fowler team ... and immediately won EIGHT GAMES the next year (and Playoffs) ! Then this year after another 0-3 start you can see the game to game improvement where if we win out (no guarantee !) and Samford was to beat ETSU we are SoCon champs !! (Yes, co champs ... but Rings for the players and ‘2018’ goes up on the fieldhouse as a championship year !). That is possible in his first two years with inherited players

    ***this is the KEY. Hendrix is an OL guru. It takes YEARS to get both his training AND HIS RECRUITS in the OL. the training can happen within one or two years. But to get his Guys on the OL takes 3 to 4 years. Right now ONE of his OL recruits began starting as a true soph at center - Neely - and another redshirt Freshman is working some at guard. Otherwise our 10 OL are from Fowler. Some are good. No disrespect to them AT ALL. But they are different from Hendrix type OL - he appears to want lighter quicker OL.

    So given 3 or 4 years - hoping we still have Hendrix - I am excited to see our OL !!! Though even next year could be better OL play as same 10 guys all return.. even if only 2 are Hendrix guys - another year or two of weights and his training could make us dangerous ... then about 2020/2021 it’s all Hendrix guys AND his training. I am excited - considering what he had done with guys recruited for a different system
    Last edited by gofurman; November 8th, 2018 at 10:38 PM.

  8. #158
    FCS Expert FUBeAR's Avatar
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    Re: Legit question - Can Furman possibly make playoffs at 6-4 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by youngterrier View Post
    It's not asinine. Furman probably has a 20% chance (tops) of making the playoffs.

    My comment is accurate.

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
    Let's see what Mr. Massey has to say...(assuming FUBeAR can do the math...)

    Mr. Massey, in his most likely scenario, says there is a 25.37% chance that the SoCon ends in a 4 way tie between FU, Woffy, Sammy, and ETSU.

    In this scenario, Sammy has beaten the other 3 and wins the Autobid.

    So...let's take Sammy out of the mix by having them lose to El Cid. But we need Woffy to stay in the mix. so they still have to beat WCU AND we need Sammy to beat ETSU...so....there's an 8.01% chance of ALL of those things happening...and this yields a 3-way tie with the tie-breaker going to SoCon points surrendered.

    Mr. Massey says Woffy gets the Autobid there with 180, Furman at 197, and ETSU at 207.

    At present, Furman has given up 146 SoCon points with 2 games to play, Woffy 152 with 1 game to play, and ETSU 179 with 1 game to play.

    So...IF Furman can give up as many as only 5 more points AND as many as only 22 more points vs. VMI AND Mercer than Woffy AND ETSU do in their games vs. WCU and Sammy, respectively, the Paladins have about an 8% chance (per Massey) of getting the Autobid.

    I suppose we could subjectively determine a % amount of FU being able to 'hold the line' on points as outlined above and multiply that by the 8% chance to the outcomes of the games going FU's way to derive an Autobid 'chance,' but we know that will certainly be less than 8% (and way less than 20%). FWIW - doing a little swagging based on scoring offense vs. scoring defense in SoCon games, it can be projected that FU will give up about 56 points in those 2 games, while Woffy will give up 28 to WCU and ETSU will give up 34 to Sammy....so, what...let's say a 25% chance (generously) that FU can 'win' the points game....So...about a 2% chance of FU getting the Autobid.

    To fully bake this, we can add the % chance of FU getting an At-Large to the 2% to get to FU's "chance of making the playoffs." 1st, they HAVE to win out...Mr. Massey says there is a 53% chance of that. Then multiply that by the % chance we think the Committee would select them. For consistency, let's say 25% again. So...about 13% added to the 2%...and we have, SCIENTIFICALLY determined you were being generous with your "20% (tops)" estimate.

    About 15% chance we'll see my 'Dins in the post-season this year.
    Last edited by FUBeAR; November 9th, 2018 at 07:20 AM.
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  9. #159
    First Class FCS Ruler gofurman's Avatar
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    Re: Legit question - Can Furman possibly make playoffs at 6-4 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by cx500d View Post
    Any way, the answer to the thread question is:

    **** NO
    That's not 100% true. Furman at 6-4 can win the SoCon AUTOBID. Though quite unlikely I fully admit.

  10. #160
    First Class FCS Ruler gofurman's Avatar
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    Re: Legit question - Can Furman possibly make playoffs at 6-4 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Go...gate View Post
    FWIW, I hope Furman is in the play-off field. You guys are always strong and play a tough schedule, and this year has been no different. It would have been a great yardstick for Colgate to measure its team.
    BIG SHOUT OUT TO GO...Gate for this post !!!!!!!!!!

    he takes the high-road and admits Furman has always been a measuring stick for Colgate.

    Good man. Not the Ego stuff we usually see - nice objective post. I hope Furman and Colgate play again soon

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