So I put together a spreadsheet using Massey. Whether you like Massey or not they do have a cool feature predicting the estimated wins remaining. With that, we know there is a concrete rule (it's written in the selection committees guidelines) that a team must get 6 D1 wins to be considered. We also know that not many 6 win teams have made it in, and the ones that have had a great resume otherwise. So the spreadsheet has the estimated total D1 wins for every team. I predicted 12 of the 14 at large selections. So the bubble would be the remaining 2 spots. Here it is.....

Blue = 8+ wins, Green = 7 wins, Yellow = 6 wins, Red = <6 wins

Massey Ranked D1 Wins Wins Remaining Losses Remaining Estimated Wins My Prediction
N Dakota StMissouri Valley 3-01.000 3 7.11 0.89 10.11 MVFC Auto
James MadisonColonial 3-10.750 3 6.46 0.54 9.46 CAA Auto
S Dakota StMissouri Valley 2-01.000 2 5.74 2.26 7.74 At Large
Weber StBig Sky 3-10.750 3 5.37 1.63 8.37 Big Sky Auto
Illinois StMissouri Valley 3-01.000 2 4.82 3.18 6.82 At Large
E WashingtonBig Sky 3-10.750 2 4.86 2.14 6.86 At Large
UC DavisBig Sky 3-10.750 3 4.55 2.45 7.55 At Large
Northern IowaMissouri Valley 1-20.333 1 4.43 3.57 5.43 Out
VillanovaColonial 3-10.750 3 3.65 3.35 6.65 At Large
MontanaBig Sky 3-10.750 3 4.65 2.35 7.65 At Large
W IllinoisMissouri Valley 1-20.333 1 4.46 3.54 5.46 Out
South DakotaMissouri Valley 1-20.333 1 4.29 3.71 5.29 Out
Stony BrookColonial 3-10.750 3 4.02 2.98 7.02 At Large
Montana StBig Sky 3-10.750 3 3.89 3.11 6.89 At Large
TowsonColonial 2-10.667 2 4.15 3.85 6.15 Bubble
MaineColonial 2-10.667 2 4.57 3.43 6.57 At Large
ElonColonial 2-10.667 2 3.28 3.72 5.28 Out
Cent ArkansasSouthland 2-10.667 2 6.44 1.56 8.44 Southland Auto
WoffordSouthern 2-10.667 2 6.03 1.97 8.03 Southern Auto
ChattanoogaSouthern 4-01.000 4 3.77 3.23 7.77 At Large
McNeese StSouthland 3-10.750 3 5.29 1.71 8.29 At Large
ColgatePatriot League 3-01.000 3 5.2 1.8 8.2 Patroit Auto
Rhode IslandColonial 2-10.667 2 4.09 3.91 6.09 Bubble
CS SacramentoBig Sky 2-20.500 1 4.13 2.87 5.13 Out
DelawareColonial 2-20.500 2 3.79 3.21 5.79 Bubble
Nicholls StSouthland 2-20.500 2 5.84 1.16 7.84 At Large
IdahoBig Sky 1-20.333 0 4.03 3.97 4.03 Out
RichmondColonial 2-20.500 2 3.38 3.62 5.38 Out
Jacksonville StOH Valley 2-10.667 2 6.27 1.73 8.27 OVC Auto
Missouri StMissouri Valley 2-10.667 1 2.32 5.68 3.32 Out
KennesawBig South 3-10.750 2 5.52 1.48 7.52 Big South Auto
Youngstown StMissouri Valley 1-20.333 1 3.21 4.79 4.21 Out
NC A&TMid-Eastern AC 3-10.750 3 6.37 0.63 9.37 Bubble
Northern ArizonaBig Sky 2-20.500 2 3.29 3.71 5.29 Out
Idaho StBig Sky 2-10.667 2 3.3 4.7 5.3 Out
MercerSouthern 2-20.500 2 4.07 2.93 6.07 Bubble
S IllinoisMissouri Valley 1-20.333 1 2.56 5.44 3.56 Out
North DakotaBig Sky 2-20.500 2 2.53 4.47 4.53 Out
CitadelSouthern 1-20.333 1 4.19 3.81 5.19 Out
Sam Houston StSouthland 1-20.333 1 5.96 2.04 6.96 Bubble
New HampshireColonial 0-30.000 0 3.29 4.71 3.29 Out
SamfordSouthern 1-30.250 0 4.25 2.75 4.25 Out
SE LouisianaSouthland 1-30.250 1 4.29 2.71 5.29 Out
Albany NYColonial 2-20.500 2 2.19 4.81 4.19 Out
Southern UtahBig Sky 0-40.000 0 3.1 3.9 3.1 Out
TN MartinOH Valley 1-30.250 1 4.61 2.39 5.61 Bubble
FurmanSouthern 0-30.000 0 4.06 2.94 4.06 Out
W CarolinaSouthern 3-01.000 2 2.57 5.43 4.57 Out
William & MaryColonial 1-20.333 1 2.01 4.99 3.01 Out
SE Missouri StOH Valley 2-20.500 2 3.97 3.03 5.97 Bubble
Tennessee StOH Valley 2-01.000 2 2.94 4.06 4.94 Out