2018 Over/Under Countdown - Big Sky Conference

[superman7515]

So I did this contest a few years ago and it went pretty well, thought it might be nice to resurrect it.

The way it works is really simple; every couple of days I'll post a new conference with a win total for each of the teams in it (all of the win totals will have a 1/2 game on the end so there are no pushes) and you just reply back in the thread with each team and whether they will finish Over or Under the win total I posted. It's total wins for the season, not just FCS, games against lower division teams and playoff/HBCU bowl victories count as well, so if you think a team is going to make the postseason, make sure you add in any wins you want to attribute to them.

Now, early in the game last time there was some confusion. Like Vegas, I'm not trying to accurately predict how many wins a team is going to get, I'm trying to pick a number that I think will get "bettors" on both sides of the line.

Of course, the last time I set lines for the season, everyone said it was too easy... and yet only two people, Ursus and GoLehighTU, out of 114 who entered the contest, were able to beat my over/under more than 60% of the time. Not including those two, only another 15 were able to beat 50%. So it must not be that easy chumps.

I'll make a spreadsheet on Google Docs and have it available for everyone to look at and see how you're doing vs how everyone else is doing. At the end of it all, we'll see who got the most right, and you'll get a trophy.

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins
5) Montana - 8.5 wins
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins

[superman7515]

So for ease of me adding this all to the spreadsheets, please just copy and paste that section above in your reply, then type Over or Under afterwards. For example (I'm just alternating over/under, not actually making any predictions):

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins Over
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins Under
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins Over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins Under
5) Montana - 8.5 wins Over
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins Under
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins Over
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins Under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins Over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins Under
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins Over
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins Under
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins Over

And let's see if someone can beat Ursus this year.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Man, loved this game supey so thanks for bringing back the fun. Gonna have to put the thinkin' cap on and just guess like I did last time and try to luck my way into a "didn't embarrass himself" this time around.

[wapiti]

Do I publish my guess here or on the spreadsheet?
Is it for all games or just conference games?
I see in the OP it says the entire season counts. Plus post season.
How about OOC games that are a conference mate?
So these games will count too.

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins Over
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins Over
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins Over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins Over
5) Montana - 8.5 wins Under
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins Over
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins Under
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins Under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins Over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins Over
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins Under
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins Over
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins Over

I reserve the right to change my guesses based on the answer to my questions.
Now that I saw the answers to my questions, I did change a couple of my guesses

[Silenoz]

Do I publish my guess here or on the spreadsheet?
Is it for all games or just conference games?
I see in the OP it says the entire season counts. Plus post season.
How about OOC games that are a conference mate?
So these games will count too.

All games, including playoffs

[BadlandsGrizFan]

So I did this contest a few years ago and it went pretty well, thought it might be nice to resurrect it.

The way it works is really simple; every couple of days I'll post a new conference with a win total for each of the teams in it (all of the win totals will have a 1/2 game on the end so there are no pushes) and you just reply back in the thread with each team and whether they will finish Over or Under the win total I posted. It's total wins for the season, not just FCS, games against lower division teams and playoff/HBCU bowl victories count as well, so if you think a team is going to make the postseason, make sure you add in any wins you want to attribute to them.

Now, early in the game last time there was some confusion. Like Vegas, I'm not trying to accurately predict how many wins a team is going to get, I'm trying to pick a number that I think will get "bettors" on both sides of the line.

Of course, the last time I set lines for the season, everyone said it was too easy... and yet only two people, Ursus and GoLehighTU, out of 114 who entered the contest, were able to beat my over/under more than 60% of the time. Not including those two, only another 15 were able to beat 50%. So it must not be that easy chumps.

I'll make a spreadsheet on Google Docs and have it available for everyone to look at and see how you're doing vs how everyone else is doing. At the end of it all, we'll see who got the most right, and you'll get a trophy.

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins UNDER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins UNDER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins OVER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins OVER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins UNDER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins OVER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins UNDER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins UNDER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins OVER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins UNDER
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins UNDER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins OVER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins UNDER

I think the Big Sky has a bottleneck of 8 win teams this year.

[Iridebikes]

Great idea. Thanks.

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins, over
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins, under
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins, over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins, under
5) Montana - 8.5 wins, under
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins, over
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins, under
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins, under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins, over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins, over
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins, under
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins, under
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins, under

[Silenoz]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins Over
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins Over
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins Over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins Under
5) Montana - 8.5 wins Under
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins Over
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins Under
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins Under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins Over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins Over
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins Under
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins Over
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins Over

[superman7515]

Here's the link to the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Once your name and votes are added to the list, if you make any changes, send me a PM so that I don't miss it. Your username links to the post where you made your selections.

[mvemjsunpx]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins UNDER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins OVER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins UNDER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins OVER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins UNDER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins OVER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins OVER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins UNDER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins UNDER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins OVER
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins UNDER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins OVER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins OVER


Why no North Dakota?