View Poll Results: Who will win this game?

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  • Wofford Terriers

    27 20.45%
  • NDSU Bison

    105 79.55%
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  1. #381
    AGS FCS Champion youngterrier's Avatar
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    Re: Quarterfinal: Wofford @ NDSU

    If we're going to slightly digress and talk about best QBs in the FCS, let me say 2 things, one is not really relevant to the thread, but Caribbean hen mentioned it:

    1) Schor is completing 70% of his passes this year. It's no secret that I don't watch every FCS team play but you don't really need to qualify any lack of accomplishments given that fact

    2) Stick is a good quarterback who fits into the system he has. I'm just not convinced he's a top 5 passing threat. That's not to say he can't torch Wofford's defense (lesser QBs have had good days) or he's not good enough to carry his team to a championship. Looking at the games in which he's had to carry the team through the air, he hasn't played as well and the Bison haven't been as successful than when they can establish the run. His core competency is his balance in both the air and the ground.

    It's kind of crazy how close this year's NDSU team is to the 2012 team. They are statistically within the margin of error of that team, as are Stick's stats comparable to Brock Jensen's. Against Wofford, Jensen had a good day, I think he was 13 of 18 for 95 yards, but it was the Bison's run game that ultimately beat us.

    For me, the bigger question is looking at how improved Wofford is relative to that 2012 team. We're more consistent statistically, more spread out with production on offense. We're deeper on defense, and most importantly, 20-30 lbs heavier on average on the defensive line. I don't think it's going to be as easy for NDSU to impose their will. Though it is true that YSU ran all over the field on us last year, their running back had run for multiple games in a row for 100 yards+ while the current starter for NDSU isn't as successful (and I know, NDSU is kind of depleted at RB)

    None of this is to say that NDSU won't win, won't be successful or can't potentially blow out the Terriers. It's just that, given all of these improvements on Wofford's side of things and NDSU's almost-boring consistency, compounded with how close it was last time (and how many mistakes Wofford had with turnovers, missed FGs, etc), I feel confident that Wofford can pull the upset or at least keep it uncomfortably close.

    And again, I could be wrong about all of this. But, given all of the above, I wouldn't be as confident as many are about the outcome.
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  2. #382
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    Re: Quarterfinal: Wofford @ NDSU

    Quote Originally Posted by youngterrier View Post
    If we're going to slightly digress and talk about best QBs in the FCS, let me say 2 things, one is not really relevant to the thread, but Caribbean hen mentioned it:

    1) Schor is completing 70% of his passes this year. It's no secret that I don't watch every FCS team play but you don't really need to qualify any lack of accomplishments given that fact

    2) Stick is a good quarterback who fits into the system he has. I'm just not convinced he's a top 5 passing threat. That's not to say he can't torch Wofford's defense (lesser QBs have had good days) or he's not good enough to carry his team to a championship. Looking at the games in which he's had to carry the team through the air, he hasn't played as well and the Bison haven't been as successful than when they can establish the run. His core competency is his balance in both the air and the ground.

    It's kind of crazy how close this year's NDSU team is to the 2012 team. They are statistically within the margin of error of that team, as are Stick's stats comparable to Brock Jensen's. Against Wofford, Jensen had a good day, I think he was 13 of 18 for 95 yards, but it was the Bison's run game that ultimately beat us.

    For me, the bigger question is looking at how improved Wofford is relative to that 2012 team. We're more consistent statistically, more spread out with production on offense. We're deeper on defense, and most importantly, 20-30 lbs heavier on average on the defensive line. I don't think it's going to be as easy for NDSU to impose their will. Though it is true that YSU ran all over the field on us last year, their running back had run for multiple games in a row for 100 yards+ while the current starter for NDSU isn't as successful (and I know, NDSU is kind of depleted at RB)

    None of this is to say that NDSU won't win, won't be successful or can't potentially blow out the Terriers. It's just that, given all of these improvements on Wofford's side of things and NDSU's almost-boring consistency, compounded with how close it was last time (and how many mistakes Wofford had with turnovers, missed FGs, etc), I feel confident that Wofford can pull the upset or at least keep it uncomfortably close.

    And again, I could be wrong about all of this. But, given all of the above, I wouldn't be as confident as many are about the outcome.
    What offensive statistics are you looking at? The 2017 Bison offense, statistically, is quite a bit better than the 2012 Bison offense. This year they're averaging 4.5 more points per game, 60+ more yards of total offense, 1.5 more yards per carry, and a 20+ point bump in team pass efficiency.

    Defensively I think it's pretty comparable but offensively this Bison team is much more efficient than the 2012 version IMO.
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  3. #383
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    Re: Quarterfinal: Wofford @ NDSU

    Quote Originally Posted by BNATION View Post
    He is not as good as Brock on a good day IMO. He's good hes most definitely not top 5...
    I think people could make a good argument why Stick is better than Jensen and vice versa.

    I don't think Stick is a top 5 quarterback in the FCS though. Top 10 maybe?

    My top QB's;
    Christian SDSU
    Strevler USD
    Gubrud EWU
    Schor UNI
    Hodges Samford
    Briscoe SHSU (maybe?)

    However Stick does what is needed for the team. He is a very good quarterback for the Bison.

    Stick is something like 33-2 as a starter. WOW!

    Dewey
    "You're not defined by a moment, you're defined by your body of work, and that's the best body of work in college football." NDSU head football coach Chris Klieman

  4. #384
    Master FCS Advocate gofurman's Avatar
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    Re: Quarterfinal: Wofford @ NDSU

    Quote Originally Posted by Terrier19 View Post
    I would venture to say that Wofford has played 2 of that aforementioned 5 Top QB's. Devin Hodges At Samford HAS to be in that discussion, and PJ Blajekowski (Furman) is another very talented QB, that (may fall outside the 5 best actually) but is up there for sure, and we have played him twice this season. I don't think Wofford will be wow'd by Stick's ability. He seems like a very good QB, dangerous with his arm and legs, but not anything we haven't seen. No offense to him as he is very skilled, I just don't see him carving up Wofford's defense. If he has the responsibility of winning or losing the game, if Wofford were to find a way to stuff the Run game of NDSU, I like our chances.

    Lot of IF's obviously........just looking at things that give Wofford the best chance and what we have done with teams in the past.
    Not being pro-Furman but if NDSU is run-first and throw efficiently Woffd saw that twice w Furman. Hodges may be a better QB / and WCU Adams is strong too.. hard to know as they all use different systems but here was Furman. You guys know football - these stats are EYE POPPING:

    PASS EFFICIENCYGCompAttInt Pct.YardsTD .............Efficiency Rating
    1.Furman 8 SoCon games ...92 comp ... 142 attempts ... 2 interceptions ... 64.8 pct ... 1553 yds ... 11 TDs ............... 179.4 RATING- ONE HUNDRED AND SEVENTY NINE????? THATS ALMOST UNHEARD OF
    2.Samford 8 238359866.3282021 ................ 147.1
    3.Mercer 8 128212660.4165910 ..................... 136.0
    4.Western Carolina 8 144231762.3157313 ....... 132.0
    5.Wofford 8 52101151.58302 ...............,..... 125.1
    6.ETSU 8 138245556.3165710 ........................ 122.5

    and Furman Is NOT NDSU. We are improving but I am not even going there.. LOL. But I don't think the QB level is much different. The OL, yeah. Many of the guys like DeLuca etc etc - IE, the trenches and front 7... yeah, NDSU may be way better. But I watched FU QB Blaze all year and watched 3 NDSU games. I don't see a difference. Notice YT lists FU's QB right there with Hodges. He was arguing that at some points in teh year he felt Blaze was better.. when we could help him w a run game. If you want to see what I mean, watch Furman v Citadel or somebody. Wofford just had Blaze running for his life and playing from behind where they could pin their ears back... so watching the last game FU v Woff isn't that telling. And their was still one drive where he killed em (to put us up 10-7) --> IE, when the game was even he was a serious danger. But once we couldn't run and got behind, well, that makes every QB look bad. (okay, maybe not Wentz But, basically No QB can be effective when he has no run game help and the DL can sell out.

    Here is another truly FREAKY stat w Blaze at FU v all SoCon comp (only 8 SoCon games) - He was number one in FCS nation late in season.. maybe ended up top 5 or so? Yards per attempt:

    PASS YDS/ATT G ... Comp .... Att ....Int Pct..... YardsAvg. TD
    1.Furman 8 games .... 92comp ..... 142attempts ... 2int .....64.8pct .... 1553 yds .......10.9 yards per attempted pass ......11 TDs
    2.Wofford ... 8games ... 52 comp... 101 attempt .... 1int ...51.5 pct ........830 yards .... 8.2 yards per pass attempt ... .....2 TDs
    3.Samford 8 gmaes ....238 comp ..359 attempts ...8 int ... 66.3 pct ... 2820 yards ...7.9 pass yards per attempt ......21 TDs
    4.Mercer 7.8 yds per pass attempt
    5.The Citadel 7.0 yards per pass attempt
    6.Western Carolina 6.8 yds per pass attempt
    7.ETSU 6.8 yds per pass attempt
    8.Chattanooga 5.7 yards per pass attempt
    9.VMI 4.5 yards per pass attempt


    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Yeah, here it is - FU QB finished number 2 in nation in pass efficiency:
    RANK NAME TEAM CL POSITION G PASS ATT PASS COM INT PASS YDS PASS TD PASS EFF
    1 Hayden Hildebrand Central Ark. Sr. QB 12 309 207 9 3129 29 177.2
    2 P.J. Blazejowski Furman Sr. QB 13 233 142 5 2461 19 172.3
    3 Lamar Raynard N.C. A&T Jr. QB 11 285 186 5 2707 26 171.6
    4 Chad Kanoff Princeton Sr. QB 10 388 284 9 3474 29 168.4
    5 Easton Stick North Dakota St. Jr. QB 12 209 130 7 1992 20 167.1
    6 Anthony Lawrence San Diego Jr. QB 13 374 245 3 3131 33 163.3
    7 Tommy Stuart Duquesne Sr. QB 11 297 198 8 2405 27 159.3
    8 Taryn Christion South Dakota St. Jr. QB 12 360 218 8 3091 31 156.7
    9 Chris Streveler South Dakota Sr. QB 13 481 316 8 4134 32 156.5
    10 Stefan Cantwell Weber St. Sr. QB 13 322 204 6 2740 23 154.7


    and number 2 in passing yards per completion:

    RANK NAME TEAM CL POSITION G PASS COM PASS ATT PASS YDS AVG
    1 Caylin Newton Howard Fr. QB 11 133 263 2432 18.29
    2 P.J. Blazejowski Furman Sr. QB 13 142 233 2461 17.33
    3 Jeremiah Briscoe Sam Houston St. Sr. QB 12 286 499 4398 15.38
    4 Easton Stick North Dakota St. Jr. QB 12 130 209 1992 15.32
    5 Michael Hughes Tennessee St. So. QB 9 86 162 1304 15.16


    This kind of backs up my theory. I think Wofford has seen this QB level / type. The difference is NDSU can run better and defend better than Furman. Just looking at the point about the QB
    Last edited by gofurman; December 7th, 2017 at 03:19 PM.

  5. #385
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    Re: Quarterfinal: Wofford @ NDSU

    Quote Originally Posted by dewey View Post
    I think people could make a good argument why Stick is better than Jensen and vice versa.

    I don't think Stick is a top 5 quarterback in the FCS though. Top 10 maybe?

    My top QB's;
    Christian SDSU
    Strevler USD
    Gubrud EWU
    Schor UNI
    Hodges Samford
    Briscoe SHSU (maybe?)

    However Stick does what is needed for the team. He is a very good quarterback for the Bison.

    Stick is something like 33-2 as a starter. WOW!

    Dewey
    I feel like Lauletta is missing?

    That said, my T5 would be, in order:

    1: Streveler
    2: Lauletta (Pocket Passing wise, better than Streveler IMO though)
    3: TC
    4: Gubrud
    5: Schor

    Streveler is on a whole different level though due to his ability to make plays happen by himself. When someone accounts for something like 70% of their entire offense, your team is in trouble.
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  6. #386
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    Re: Quarterfinal: Wofford @ NDSU

    1. Lauletta
    2. Gubrud
    3. Streveler
    4. Schor
    5. Briscoe
    6. Christian

  7. #387
    Top FCS Advocate Terrier19's Avatar
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    Re: Quarterfinal: Wofford @ NDSU

    Quote Originally Posted by dewey View Post
    I think people could make a good argument why Stick is better than Jensen and vice versa.

    I don't think Stick is a top 5 quarterback in the FCS though. Top 10 maybe?

    My top QB's;
    Christian SDSU
    Strevler USD
    Gubrud EWU
    Schor UNI
    Hodges Samford
    Briscoe SHSU (maybe?)

    However Stick does what is needed for the team. He is a very good quarterback for the Bison.

    Stick is something like 33-2 as a starter. WOW!

    Dewey
    Stick is something like 33-2 as a starter. WOW!

    NOW THAT IS AMAZING!!!!! SHEESH!!!

  8. #388
    AGS FCS Champion youngterrier's Avatar
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    Re: Quarterfinal: Wofford @ NDSU

    Quote Originally Posted by Professor Chaos View Post
    What offensive statistics are you looking at? The 2017 Bison offense, statistically, is quite a bit better than the 2012 Bison offense. This year they're averaging 4.5 more points per game, 60+ more yards of total offense, 1.5 more yards per carry, and a 20+ point bump in team pass efficiency.

    Defensively I think it's pretty comparable but offensively this Bison team is much more efficient than the 2012 version IMO.
    I personally attribute 4.5 more points as margin of error. It's variation, certainly, but I don't see that as significant (and really it's a value judgment). Though it is true that they're running the ball for more yards per game, OOC numbers somewhat complicate the statistic, as does the reality of bad run defenses.

    I guess the point I'm going with here is that blowouts create a lot of noise disguised as signals (just look at all the threads where I was critical of Furman this year, Furman fans still hate me for it)

    Though team passing efficiency may have improved, I was mainly looking at the comparison between Stick 2017 and Jensen 2012. What exactly quantifies passing efficiency? I ask because if I'm not mistaken it has something to do with the scores you throw. The completion percentage of Stick is 1% higher or so (not really significant in my opinion) and he only averages about 10 yards per game more through the air than Jensen. Stick averages about 11 of 17 and 2ish TDs a game, while Jensen averaged about 14 of 22 for 1ish TDs a game.

    So, on the surface *maybe* the difference in playcalling is that they throw Stick less, but when they do, they go more verticle and that ends up with more touchdowns. That could explain less throws but more yardage. But if you're going to ask me, based upon these stats if I expect him to be that much better than Jensen, my answer is simply that I expect them to be about the same.

    So, I'll concede that NDSU's stats look better, but given the variation of their performance/diminishing returns when blowing out so-so teams and the similarities of the two QB make me thing they are pretty similar. One important measure of efficiency as an offense is that NDSU is converting 3rd downs at a rate of 5% less rate, but that may be a spurious stat.
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  9. #389
    AGS FCS Champion youngterrier's Avatar
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    Re: Quarterfinal: Wofford @ NDSU

    And I have to be clear, I don't think Stick is a bad player (far from it! he's a great player). I'm just trying to contextualize his role in NDSU's offense. I'm just skeptical of the claim that he can torch us and the certainty some Bison fans are asserting that claim.

    He's not their Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. He's their AJ McCarron (but, IMO better/more important to their offense than McCarron was for Bama).

    There's nothing really impressive about Goodson's stats either. You could contextualize them and draw some meh conclusions about his role in the offense. That doesn't mean he's unimportant or can't torch you somehow though!

    (Heck, I barely talked about Stick's rushing numbers!)
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  10. #390
    Top FCS Advocate Terrier19's Avatar
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    Re: Quarterfinal: Wofford @ NDSU

    Quote Originally Posted by gofurman View Post
    Not being pro-Furman but if NDSU is run-first and throw efficiently Woffd saw that twice w Furman. Hodges may be a better QB / and WCU Adams is strong too.. hard to know as they all use different systems but here was Furman. You guys know football - these stats are EYE POPPING:

    PASS EFFICIENCYGCompAttInt Pct.YardsTD .............Efficiency Rating
    1.Furman 8 SoCon games ...92 comp ... 142 attempts ... 2 interceptions ... 64.8 pct ... 1553 yds ... 11 TDs ............... 179.4 RATING- ONE HUNDRED AND SEVENTY NINE????? THATS ALMOST UNHEARD OF
    2.Samford 8 238359866.3282021 ................ 147.1
    3.Mercer 8 128212660.4165910 ..................... 136.0
    4.Western Carolina 8 144231762.3157313 ....... 132.0
    5.Wofford 8 52101151.58302 ...............,..... 125.1
    6.ETSU 8 138245556.3165710 ........................ 122.5

    and Furman Is NOT NDSU. We are improving but I am not even going there.. LOL. But I don't think the QB level is much different. The OL, yeah. Many of the guys like DeLuca etc etc - IE, the trenches and front 7... yeah, NDSU may be way better. But I watched FU QB Blaze all year and watched 3 NDSU games. I don't see a difference. Notice YT lists FU's QB right there with Hodges. He was arguing that at some points in teh year he felt Blaze was better.. when we could help him w a run game. If you want to see what I mean, watch Furman v Citadel or somebody. Wofford just had Blaze running for his life and playing from behind where they could pin their ears back... so watching the last game FU v Woff isn't that telling. And their was still one drive where he killed em (to put us up 10-7) --> IE, when the game was even he was a serious danger. But once we couldn't run and got behind, well, that makes every QB look bad. (okay, maybe not Wentz But, basically No QB can be effective when he has no run game help and the DL can sell out.

    Here is another truly FREAKY stat w Blaze at FU v all SoCon comp (only 8 SoCon games) - He was number one in FCS nation late in season.. maybe ended up top 5 or so? Yards per attempt:

    PASS YDS/ATT G ... Comp .... Att ....Int Pct..... YardsAvg. TD
    1.Furman 8 games .... 92comp ..... 142attempts ... 2int .....64.8pct .... 1553 yds .......10.9 yards per attempted pass ......11 TDs
    2.Wofford ... 8games ... 52 comp... 101 attempt .... 1int ...51.5 pct ........830 yards .... 8.2 yards per pass attempt ... .....2 TDs
    3.Samford 8 gmaes ....238 comp ..359 attempts ...8 int ... 66.3 pct ... 2820 yards ...7.9 pass yards per attempt ......21 TDs
    4.Mercer 7.8 yds per pass attempt
    5.The Citadel 7.0 yards per pass attempt
    6.Western Carolina 6.8 yds per pass attempt
    7.ETSU 6.8 yds per pass attempt
    8.Chattanooga 5.7 yards per pass attempt
    9.VMI 4.5 yards per pass attempt


    Yeah, here it is - FU QB finished number 2 in nation in pass efficiency:
    RANK NAME TEAM CL POSITION G PASS ATT PASS COM INT PASS YDS PASS TD PASS EFF
    1 Hayden Hildebrand Central Ark. Sr. QB 12 309 207 9 3129 29 177.2
    2 P.J. Blazejowski Furman Sr. QB 13 233 142 5 2461 19 172.3
    3 Lamar Raynard N.C. A&T Jr. QB 11 285 186 5 2707 26 171.6
    4 Chad Kanoff Princeton Sr. QB 10 388 284 9 3474 29 168.4
    5 Easton Stick North Dakota St. Jr. QB 12 209 130 7 1992 20 167.1
    6 Anthony Lawrence San Diego Jr. QB 13 374 245 3 3131 33 163.3
    7 Tommy Stuart Duquesne Sr. QB 11 297 198 8 2405 27 159.3
    8 Taryn Christion South Dakota St. Jr. QB 12 360 218 8 3091 31 156.7
    9 Chris Streveler South Dakota Sr. QB 13 481 316 8 4134 32 156.5
    10 Stefan Cantwell Weber St. Sr. QB 13 322 204 6 2740 23 154.7

    This kind of backs up my theory. I think they have seen this QB level / type. The difference is NDSU can probably run better and defend better than Furman
    AND THAT IS WHY I had Blaze in that group.

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