Patriot League 2018 - way way way to early

[Colgate Raider Redux]

. Colgate will be good but until they win some meaningful OOC games their margin for error is extremely small. Like Lehigh, the Raiders graduate several key players (Holland, Afriyie, Paulish). Until there's major changes on defense Lehigh's ceiling will only be so high. Good PL program, irrelevant nationally....No preseason Top 25 team and no real threat on the national stage once again in 2018.

Colgate actually has almost the entire team coming back for the 2018 season. You're incorrect about Holland. He has a 5th medical year, along with starting O linemen Scott Hirschman and co-captain Max Harrtzman. Starting strong safety and co-captain Alec Wisniewski will also be returning for a medical 5th year. There are almost no 2017 starters that have to be replaced in 2018. Because of injuries during the year, the high number of experienced back-ups coming back is very unusual. In my 2018 season crystal ball, there are only one or two teams in the PL who are likely to give Colgate a tough game, assuming this team earnestly embraces the next logical steps between now and then..

I think you're correct that a big challenge for Colgate in 2018 is getting some meaningful O.O.C. wins: New Hampshire, Furman, Wm & Mary, Cornell and Army West Point. Freshman qb Breneman was cutting his eye teeth in the early season O.O.C. games, Buffalo, Furman, Richmond and Cornell. He was challenged in those games. And looked very much like the rookie that he is. Beneman has yet to prove himself against the Raider's O.O.C. competition. PL games were/are another story. Colgate went on to lose to L.U. by 3 points; but outscored its next 4 PL opponents 150-22. Some significant playmakers emerged, especially among the receivers and the 3-4 front D.L,-L.B. group of the D.. Breneman's progress after the O.O.C. games, along with the entire O, D and special teams was really impressive.

But, let's not kid ourselves....this was a very weak PL. And while we're in the reality zone, let's be frank about the Raider's long term objectives for its fb brand ....If Colgate is going to win the PL in 2018, without a couple of solid O.O.C. wins, it won't be very eventful. Colgate's annual approach to scheduling in the schollie age, though aggressive, is very deliberate and is designed to distinguish it in the FCS. It's designed to stretch a talented group of PL recruits into the next performance level just above the PL. That would manifest in the 2018 season by securing a higher than "normal PL seed" and getting an opponent it can beat in the FCS playoff. That might avoid the traditional "one-and-done" PL FCS tournament pattern. Ambitious?... yes. But doable for this group in 2018. Anything less in 2018 will be disappointing.

[Lehigh'98]

Need to see what coaching changes are made at Lehigh before I start to speculate, but they need a complete overhaul on defense, so I can't see them being relevant outside the PL next year.

[van]

Need to see what coaching changes are made at Lehigh before I start to speculate, but they need a complete overhaul on defense, so I can't see them being relevant outside the PL next year.

preponderance of data supports your thesis about the D, but the improvement in the past two weeks gives me a little optimism

[Lehigh'98]

preponderance of data supports your thesis about the D, but the improvement in the past two weeks gives me a little optimism

Please remember we played Holy Cross and Bucknell in those games.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Colgate actually has almost the entire team coming back for the 2018 season. You're incorrect about Holland. He has a 5th medical year, along with starting O linemen Scott Hirschman and co-captain Max Harrtzman. Starting strong safety and co-captain Alec Wisniewski will also be returning for a medical 5th year. There are almost no 2017 starters that have to be replaced in 2018. Because of injuries during the year, the high number of experienced back-ups coming back is very unusual. In my 2018 season crystal ball, there are only one or two teams in the PL who are likely to give Colgate a tough game, assuming this team earnestly embraces the next logical steps between now and then..

I think you're correct sbout the challenge for Colgate in 2018: getting some meaningful O.O.C. wins: New Hampshire, Furman, Wm & Mary, Cornell and Army West Point. Freshman qb Breneman was cutting his eye teeth in the early season O.O.C. games, Buffalo, Furman, Richmond and Cornell. He was challenged in those games. And looked very much like the rookie that he is. Beneman has yet to prove himself against the Raider's O.O.C. competition. PL games were/are another story. Colgate went on to lose to L.U. by 3 points; but outscored its next 4 PL opponents 150-22. Some significant playmakers emerged, especially among the receivers and the 3-4 front part of the D.. Breneman's progress after the O.O.C. games, along with the entire O, D and special teams was really impressive.

But, let's not kid ourselves....this was a very weak PL. And while we're in the reality zone, let's be frank about the Raider's long term objectives for its fb brand ....If Colgate is going to win the PL in 2018, without a couple of solid O.O.C. wins, it won't be very eventful. Colgate's annual approach to scheduling in the schollie age, though aggressive, is very deliberate and is designed to distinguish it in the FCS. It's designed to stretch a talented group of PL recruits into the next performance level just above the PL. That would manifest in the 2018 season by securing a higher than "normal PL seed" and getting an opponent it can beat in the FCS playoff. That might avoid the traditional "one-and-done" PL FCS tournament pattern. Ambitious?... yes. But doable for this group in 2018. Anything less in 2018 will be disappointing.

I think when it's all said and done Lehigh and Colgate will basically be 1A. and 1B. Lehigh gets Colgate at Goodman and have had the Raiders number this decade (6-2).

I think Lehigh's offense will be fine so long as Mayes's decision making/movement in the pocket improves. The one thing about Coen coach teams is good OL play. I have no major concerns about how that will shake out. Losing Pelletier and Casey will hurt. You can't sugarcoat the loss of a tandem this good. But, Lehigh has reloaded at WR (like EWU) before and there is experience being built this year. Having Brags and the rest of the RB will be a huge boost. Mayes really has to make the most of his senior season. To this point his Lehigh career has been Shafniskyesque.

It all comes down to the defense. Coen and the AD need to find a credible DC and rebuild the whole thing. This late season "improvement" is nothing but a mirage being perpetrated by terrible competition. This is year 5 of terrible defense so the insanity must end. Its handcuffed the program! This year's team would be 8-3/9-2 with a competent defense!

Either way, it's no shock that since the dust settled on the scholarship transition Colgate and Lehigh have once again re-emerged as the dominant programs in the PL. Both still need to raise their game on a national level. It starts by winning OOC games, 0-5 and 2-3 aren't going to cut it....

Lafayette will figure it out before too long. There's simply too much there to continue to suck year after year. 8 straight losing seasons? Holy ****!!!

[Roll 'gate]

I think when it's all said and done Lehigh and Colgate will basically be 1A. and 1B. Lehigh gets Colgate at Goodman and have had the Raiders number this decade (6-2).

I think Lehigh's offense will be fine so long as Mayes's decision making/movement in the pocket improves. The one thing about Coen coach teams is good OL play. I have no major concerns about how that will shake out. Losing Pelletier and Casey will hurt. You can't sugarcoat the loss of a tandem this good. But, Lehigh has reloaded at WR (like EWU) before and there is experience being built this year. Having Brags and the rest of the RB will be a huge boost. Mayes really has to make the most of his senior season. To this point his Lehigh career has been Shafniskyesque.

It all comes down to the defense. Coen and the AD need to find a credible DC and rebuild the whole thing. This late season "improvement" is nothing but a mirage being perpetrated by terrible competition. This is year 5 of terrible defense so the insanity must end. Its handcuffed the program! This year's team would be 8-3/9-2 with a competent defense!

Either way, it's no shock that since the dust settled on the scholarship transition Colgate and Lehigh have once again re-emerged as the dominant programs in the PL. Both still need to raise their game on a national level. It starts by winning OOC games, 0-5 and 2-3 aren't going to cut it....

Lafayette will figure it out before too long. There's simply too much there to continue to suck year after year. 8 straight losing seasons? Holy ****!!!

It's true that both teams need to raise the game on the national level but that starts with the overall PL raising its level. Stiff ooc play is fantastic but having a equally competitive league is also important. There needs to be more parody top to bottom before you will see true national level recognition other than a random team here or there.

Agreed that Lafayette is a team to watch. Just not sure when they get over the hump!

[ngineer]

While losing the two WRs will have an impact, it won't be devastating. A lot returns at that position more growth next year. The OL has a ton of underclassmen playing this year, so I don't see any problem there. My concern is Mayes. I am not seeing a progression, and if he doesn't start getting better at quick decision making, he may get challenged like Lum challenged J.B. Clark a few years ago. With "the Beast" returning to the backfield along with a solid backup group, the O could be 'doo-wopping' all through 2018. The D can't be any worse, and I believe will be better because of the experience returning. The secondary is quite athletic and a bunch of freshmen and sophs are playing now that should pay dividends next year. Loss of Cavenas hurts, but it is always next many up. Don't forget Mish is back with his PK and punting duties. His punting is another defensive weapon. I could see him getting some NFL looks in 2019.

Colgate will certainly have a great core returning and the QB should only get better. Another Vena in the making. After that, it will be a crap shoot in the PL and wouldn't be shocked at any of the others coming in third, other than the Hoyas. So sad. MPLG! [note I did not include "again", as we never have been].

[Roll 'gate]

While losing the two WRs will have an impact, it won't be devastating. A lot returns at that position more growth next year. The OL has a ton of underclassmen playing this year, so I don't see any problem there. My concern is Mayes. I am not seeing a progression, and if he doesn't start getting better at quick decision making, he may get challenged like Lum challenged J.B. Clark a few years ago. With "the Beast" returning to the backfield along with a solid backup group, the O could be 'doo-wopping' all through 2018. The D can't be any worse, and I believe will be better because of the experience returning. The secondary is quite athletic and a bunch of freshmen and sophs are playing now that should pay dividends next year. Loss of Cavenas hurts, but it is always next many up. Don't forget Mish is back with his PK and punting duties. His punting is another defensive weapon. I could see him getting some NFL looks in 2019.

Colgate will certainly have a great core returning and the QB should only get better. Another Vena in the making. After that, it will be a crap shoot in the PL and wouldn't be shocked at any of the others coming in third, other than the Hoyas. So sad. MPLG! [note I did not include "again", as we never have been].

Is there a backup that could actually challenge for the job hiding in that valley?

Our lehigh contingent ... expecting coaching changes this off season or does this "successful" year give them another year to mess up?

[LehighU11]

Is there a backup that could actually challenge for the job hiding in that valley?

Our lehigh contingent ... expecting coaching changes this off season or does this "successful" year give them another year to mess up?

Unlikely since LU will only return 2 other QBs next year besides Mayes and neither are the current backup. Shoup, who is a freshman out of Georgia, may have the better shot. An athletic, mobile QB who drew some comparisons to Shafnisky when he was recruited, though not quite as big. I believe Colgate also extended an offer to him.

[Colgate Raider Redux]

It's true that both teams need to raise the game on the national level but that starts with the overall PL raising its level. Stiff ooc play is fantastic but having a equally competitive league is also important. There needs to be more parody top to bottom before you will see true national level recognition other than a random team here or there.

Agreed that Lafayette is a team to watch. Just not sure when they get over the hump!

Achieving PL versus Individual team "national stature enhancement" is more of an interdependent conundrum than a chicken-egg thing. Remember that Fordham, Lehigh and Colgate were the advocates for the transition to scholies, while the other PL schools were slower to adapt their fb programs initially. Through coaching changes and other initiatives, Holy Cross and Lafayette are now making more strategic commitments to upgrade the performance of their fb programs. They may close the gap, but it will be a gradual process, at best. It seems unlikely that Bucknell or Georgetown are going to change things significantly anytime soon. In aggregate, this variation is all fine--there's no way to compel intra-league performance parity. Adherence to league rules ( AI, redshirting, etc. ) may affect the character of the league. But, as one dimension of the bonds within the league, it is not a formula for raising the national stature of the league. And, relative to increasing the fb program's resources allocation, it has only a neglible impact on intra-league performance "parity" or comparative performance outside the PL.

One of the beauties of PL fb affiliation is that 5 of 11 games of the total annual schedule are o.o.c.. According to a school's srrategic vision for their fb program, they can "up-schedule" or "down-schedule" from PL competition. Intra-PL competition will only go so far in satisfying the institutional and/or competitive aspirations of all or each of the PL teams.

Although I expect some garadual improvement in intra-league parity, it's unlikely that the RPI improvement will contribute significantly to the stature of PL champs or the league itself on the larger stage.