This game deserves a thread of it's own (hopefully it'll partition off the Furman fans claiming they're going to win a national title this year, but I digress).
Samford comes into this game at 7-3 (5-2 in the Socon), Furman 7-3(6-1). If Furman wins, they get a piece of the socon title. If they lose, both teams tie for second place.
Furman right now has the best offense in the socon in terms of scoring offense, 2nd in total offense and fifth in scoring defense. Samford is 3rd in both scoring offense and scoring defense, but is 8th in total defense.
Furman is the 3rd best rushing team, while Samford has the 7th best rushing defense. For Samford, that may look bad on the surface, but they've played three option teams (Kennesaw, Citadel and Wofford) and they still only average 173 yards a game and 4 ypc (which is fourth best in the Socon).
Samford has the best pass offense, while Furman has the best pass defense. Once again, that stat is a little misleading: Furman has had a lot of teams pass it on them in garbage time. Still, Furman has the second worst pass defense in terms of completion percentage.
As for less tangible stats, this game pits the most efficient offense (Furman, scoring points 51% of the time overall and almost 53% in Socon play) vs the most efficient defense (the Samford defense allows scores 23% of the time overall and an astonishing 19% overall in Socon play). Both teams are average or so (3rd or 4th) in terms of their efficiency on the other side of the ball, but it's clear that Furman leans on their offense and Samford leans on their defense.
On top of that, Samford averages the most possessions per game with about 13 on both sides of the ball. Furman on the other hand is down there with Wofford in terms of minimal possessions with about 11. I don't think Samford should want to push the game to so many possessions because Furman is so ungodly efficient with scoring. The only way that Samford wins with that many possessions is if they win the turnover battle and that's hard to predict.
I personally think Furman will win this game, even though I'm pulling against them. That offense is just hard to stop due to its efficiency. Even though Samford has had respectable performances against run-first offenses, in some ways I think they got lucky (there was a rain delay that helped them get their stuff together against Kennesaw, Wofford played with a bad center who fumbled the snap 4 times and ruined the rhythm of the game for 2.5 quarters, and the Citadel's offense just isn't good this year).
Right now, the YT quasi-statistical bull**** algorithm has Furman ahead 26-24, which is obviously in the margin of error. I'm picking Furman 41-31 in a game that goes back in forth but simply comes down to Furman's ability to score at will and Samford being unable to stop them. I'm hoping this isn't the outcome, but it's my best, most-educated guess.
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Originally Posted by ASU33
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