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  1. #61
    Master FCS Advocate FUGameBreaker's Avatar
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    Re: Furman @ Samford. Socon game of the week

    Pretty certain that if we had to run a 2pt conversion at this point in the season that we would just run something out of our regular offense, unlike in week 1 where we tried a trick play to attempt to beat wofford

  2. #62
    AGS FCS Champion youngterrier's Avatar
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    Re: Furman @ Samford. Socon game of the week

    The Citadel had systemic pass defense problems and offensive scoring problems all year.

    Though the Citadel had great defensive stats, it's worth noting that they played the teams with the best offense in the conference in the final month of the season (Furman, Western Carolina and Clemson next week), while the front part of the schedule was pretty weak (Newberry, ETSU, PC). We're seeing a lot of "regression to the mean" in the last few weeks with the Citadel's defense.

    There's a pretty strong case to be made that the Citadel just whalloped teams that weren't prepared for the option on offense and overpowered teams in the trenches who weren't on their skill level. The exception would probably be Wofford, where they just played an alternative triple option universe (like the last 3 meetings between the two), yet Wofford still passed for like 230 yards against them.

    There are about 5 teams in the conference clearly more impressive on defense than the Citadel this year (and just in general to be honest). From a scoring perspective, the Citadel let 3 teams score 30 on them this year; Mercer 1; Furman 1; Wofford 0; Samford 1; heck Western Carolina with all of its troubles only let 2 score 30 on them in regulation.

    With option teams, statistics can be misleading in terms of total defense (though that won't stop us from citing it in these sort of discussions ). Though the Citadel was number in total defense, they were the second worst in terms of yards per play at 5.6. You can say "but they had to play Furman and that boosted their stats" but that's true of every team.

    I'm not un-impressed by the numbers Furman put up against the Citadel (I'd be surprised if Clemson matched them to be honest), but I just think the performance isn't as impressive as the Mercer game they played a few weeks ago, or even the Western Carolina game to be honest.

    The Citadel was an example of a team with flaws this year that no one wanted to pull out of the top 25 until much too late IMO.
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  3. #63
    Master FCS Advocate FUGameBreaker's Avatar
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    Re: Furman @ Samford. Socon game of the week

    I feel one of the most amazing things to me was as we got up on them 42-0, some might just assume Citadel had at least several turnovers running their option attack, but nope not 1 turnover for the game, and still could not hang with our offense.

    I admit I have not seen a whole lot of Citadel's back-up QB this year (guy I assume will start next year), I think he has made a few good plays this season, but I was very unimpressed with seeing him in person this past Saturday, as he was playing in mop up duty time.

  4. #64
    Master FCS Advocate FUGameBreaker's Avatar
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    Re: Furman @ Samford. Socon game of the week

    And yes I know he completed a couple of long passes against our 2nd and 3rd string defense, doubt he gets those against the first team.

    But more importantly for Citadel he had 13 yards on 15 carries, for an option QB running their offense that's not going to cut it, and he did not look very smooth running the ball at all.

  5. #65
    First Class FCS Ruler SCPALADIN's Avatar
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    Re: Furman @ Samford. Socon game of the week

    Quote Originally Posted by youngterrier View Post
    The Citadel had systemic pass defense problems and offensive scoring problems all year.

    Though the Citadel had great defensive stats, it's worth noting that they played the teams with the best offense in the conference in the final month of the season (Furman, Western Carolina and Clemson next week), while the front part of the schedule was pretty weak (Newberry, ETSU, PC). We're seeing a lot of "regression to the mean" in the last few weeks with the Citadel's defense.

    There's a pretty strong case to be made that the Citadel just whalloped teams that weren't prepared for the option on offense and overpowered teams in the trenches who weren't on their skill level. The exception would probably be Wofford, where they just played an alternative triple option universe (like the last 3 meetings between the two), yet Wofford still passed for like 230 yards against them.

    There are about 5 teams in the conference clearly more impressive on defense than the Citadel this year (and just in general to be honest). From a scoring perspective, the Citadel let 3 teams score 30 on them this year; Mercer 1; Furman 1; Wofford 0; Samford 1; heck Western Carolina with all of its troubles only let 2 score 30 on them in regulation.

    With option teams, statistics can be misleading in terms of total defense (though that won't stop us from citing it in these sort of discussions ). Though the Citadel was number in total defense, they were the second worst in terms of yards per play at 5.6. You can say "but they had to play Furman and that boosted their stats" but that's true of every team.

    I'm not un-impressed by the numbers Furman put up against the Citadel (I'd be surprised if Clemson matched them to be honest), but I just think the performance isn't as impressive as the Mercer game they played a few weeks ago, or even the Western Carolina game to be honest.

    The Citadel was an example of a team with flaws this year that no one wanted to pull out of the top 25 until much too late IMO.
    Did you actually sit down and watch these games...and not just look at the stat line? Be honest.

  6. #66
    Top FCS Ruler FUBeAR's Avatar
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    Re: Furman @ Samford. Socon game of the week

    Quote Originally Posted by PaladinFan View Post
    I've never really figured out how to embed tweets on AGS, but here is an example of what makes Dirks so difficult for defenses. The Citadel stuffs the play, a DT wraps him up at the line of scrimmage, still can't get him to the ground, and 25 yards later he's in the endzone. You won't find many guys that can run into the chest of a defensive tackle and do much.

    You aren't just going to get him to the ground with one man and an arm tackle.

    https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/929450159041265664

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    ...and don't ignore that FU's LG athletically reacted to a hard stunt, stayed on his feet, and stayed on the DLman who was trying to tackle Dirks dos y do'ing him to the ground as he assisted in shedding him off of 21. Not many of them TD scorers are doin' it on their own, y'know.
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  7. #67
    AGS FCS Champion youngterrier's Avatar
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    Re: Furman @ Samford. Socon game of the week

    Quote Originally Posted by SCPALADIN View Post
    Did you actually sit down and watch these games...and not just look at the stat line? Be honest.
    It's not necessary to watch the games. Mercer's a much better team than the Citadel on both sides of the ball and special teams. As far as I'm concerned, for Furman this was just another example of beating a team that didn't have its **** together (ETSU, VMI, Chattanooga). There's a diminishing point of impressiveness after like 40 points.

    Usually when you see an option team down like that, it's because of turnovers, but not so this year with the Citadel (though they fumble it a lot in some games, they don't lose it as much). The Citadel scores like 20% of the time (which is terrible) in Socon play, so they go long streaks without scoring. In the conference schedule, they average going 2 quarters scoreless a game. And Furman is the opposite.

    So when I heard that the Citadel was down 21-0, I wasn't surprised, and when they kept rolling it wasn't much of a surprise either. Furman is an efficient offense, which means if you give them the ball 10 times in a game, they'll score at least 5 times (usually a touchdown, they've rarely kicked field goals this year), give or take a score . Counting garbage time, the Paladins had it 11 times and scored 8. That's above average even for Furman (counting garbage time or not), but not inconceivably more efficient.

    Y'all can hate me for not actually watching the games, but this obsession with soaking in every single moment is unnecessary. A single play can make or break a close game, but when assessing future outcomes, it's practically an anecdote. It's like looking at a long run and assuming that's how they'll all go or looking at a sack and assuming the opposition will never complete a pass again.

    The Citadel is an average-at-best football team this year (blame it on youth or whatever) and the strengths of the Paladins had them optimally positioned for a blowout. I underestimated how bad it would be, but it didn't take it all that much to make it that bad. I'm more impressed by Furman's consistency (as a Wofford fan I envy it) than the specific yards-rushing per game (or whatever) they put up. Consistency (and inconsistency, for that matter) carries over into other games and can be predictive, while the specific yardage will vary.
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  8. #68
    AGS FCS Champion youngterrier's Avatar
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    Re: Furman @ Samford. Socon game of the week

    *And I'm also looking forward to see how Furman performs against Samford. Unless Hodges gets injured, a win by any means puts them unquestionably in conversation as a national title contender (and not just because they're in the playoffs), and of that I am certain. It doesn't have to be a blowout.
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  9. #69
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    Re: Furman @ Samford. Socon game of the week

    Quote Originally Posted by youngterrier View Post
    I think people underestimate the role of the interior DL when it comes to stopping the run (FWIW, Wofford didn't have our all-freshman NT in the first two games due to a two game suspension or the last two as he has Mono).

    Samford probably won't be able to run the ball against Furman just as they weren't able to run the ball against Chattanooga or Wofford. I think Chattanooga, Wofford and Samford probably have the best defensive fronts in the conference. The only reason I don't put Furman up there is because I honestly haven't seen them enough. I know they lead the league in sacks, but often sacks are a measurement of the strength of the front 7, not the DL.

    The fact that Samford has let up 183 ypg running the ball on the surface looks bad, but when you factor in the fact that they've played Georgia, Kennesaw State, Western Carolina and Wofford and they only average that much, that's not bad at all.

    I imagine Furman will run for at least 200 on them, but how well that does for them in terms of points is another story. I think Blazejowski's passing ability is more of a key than people think as he's been very efficient in the last month. If he continues that efficiency/consistency, I think they win. But if he has a day where he's below 65% or so and Furman throws 20 times, they could be in trouble. From what I can tell it looks like he's learned how to throw on the run better in boot legs or has got in the habit to setting his feet before throwing (it sounds basic, but he was a pocket passer before this year and I think it took an adjustment) and that's probably why he's more accurate.

    The more I think about this game, the more I think Furman should be favored but at the same time, that's when Samford thrives historically.


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  10. #70
    Master FCS Advocate FUGameBreaker's Avatar
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    Re: Furman @ Samford. Socon game of the week

    Sagarin says Samford by 1pt with homefield advantage

    http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

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