Playoff short hand for this week

[Reign of Terrier]

A short-hand guide to clinching a playoff berth next week:


Locks (13):
Southern Utah
Weber
JMU
Elon
Stony Brook
NDSU
SDSU
CCSU
Jacksonville State
San Diego
Wofford
Central Arkansas
Sam Houston State
Win and you’re likely in(14--notice the catch here 13+14>24):
NAU
Lehigh
Montana
Kennesaw
Monmouth
New Hampshire
Delaware
South Dakota
Western Illinois
Illinois State
UNI
Western Carolina
Furman
Samford

Win and wait and see (9):
Nichols
McNeese
Colgate
Austin Peay
Eastern Washington
Sacramento State

Lose and you’re still alive, pending on the field(9):
Furman
Western Illinois
South Dakota
New Hampshire
Delaware
Monmouth
Kennesaw State
Montana
Northern Arizona

Lose and you are almost certainly out(9):
Samford
Western Carolina
Eastern Washington
Sacramento State
Illinois State
Northern Iowa
Nichols
McNeese
Austin Peay

[BEAR]

This committee is going to have a fit when:

UCA goes 10-1
SHSU goes 10-1
McNeese goes 9-2
Nicholls goes 9-2

[TheKingpin28]

A short-hand guide to clinching a playoff berth next week:


Locks (13):
Southern Utah
Weber
JMU
Elon
Stony Brook
NDSU
SDSU
CCSU
Jacksonville State
San Diego
Wofford
Central Arkansas
Sam Houston State

Win and you’re likely in(14--notice the catch here 13+14>24):
NAU
Lehigh
Montana
Kennesaw
Monmouth
New Hampshire
Delaware
South Dakota
Western Illinois
Illinois State
UNI
Western Carolina
Furman
Samford

Win and wait and see (9):
Nichols
McNeese
Colgate
Kennesaw
Monmouth
Austin Peay
Howard
Eastern Washington
Sacramento State

Lose and you’re still alive, pending on the field(9):
Furman
Western Illinois
South Dakota
New Hampshire
Delaware
Monmouth
Kennesaw State
Montana
Northern Arizona

Lose and you are almost certainly out(9):
Samford
Western Carolina
Eastern Washington
Sacramento State
Illinois State
Northern Iowa
Nichols
McNeese
Austin Peay

The ones in RED are in for sure
The ones in BLUE cannot be in due to APR sanctions
The ones in GREEN are locks due to AQ if they win

[Reign of Terrier]

This committee is going to have a fit when:

UCA goes 10-1
SHSU goes 10-1
McNeese goes 9-2
Nicholls goes 9-2

I just don't see how you can keep out multiple teams who are 9-2. SOS may be so-so but McNeese, Nicholls, Kennesaw/Monmouth are going to be hard to keep out.

[POD Knows]

I just don't see how you can keep out multiple teams who are 9-2. SOS may be so-so but McNeese, Nicholls, Kennesaw/Monmouth are going to be hard to keep out.

I hope these teams get in, I really do, I have no loyalty to the MVFC, I hope as many of these teams as possible get into the playoffs, not kidding, water it the **** the down, I need a trip to Frisco.

[TheKingpin28]

I just don't see how you can keep out multiple teams who are 9-2. SOS may be so-so but McNeese, Nicholls, Kennesaw/Monmouth are going to be hard to keep out.

Not really. There is a reason why SOS and quality wins exist for a reason. Ask the following:

-2016: Dayton (9-2)
-2015: BCU (9-2) San Diego (9-2) Jacksonville (9-2) [Ineligible though]
-2014: NCAT (9-3) BCU (9-3) Jacksonville (9-2)
-2013: Charleston Southern (10-3) Mercer (10-2)
-2012: Albany (9-2) EKU (8-3) UTM (8-3) Lehigh (10-1) Butler (8-3) Drake (8-3) San Diego (8-3)
-2011: UND (8-3) BCU (8-3) Duquesne (9-2) San Diego (9-2) Drake (9-2) Georgetown (8-3)

Should I keep going?

[cx500d]

A short-hand guide to clinching a playoff berth next week:


Locks (13):
Southern Utah
Weber
JMU
Elon
Stony Brook
NDSU
SDSU
CCSU
Jacksonville State
San Diego
Wofford
Central Arkansas
Sam Houston State

Win and you’re likely in(14--notice the catch here 13+14>24):
NAU
Lehigh
Montana
Kennesaw
Monmouth
New Hampshire
Delaware
South Dakota
Western Illinois
Illinois State
UNI
Western Carolina
Furman
Samford

Win and wait and see (9):
Nichols
McNeese
Colgate
Kennesaw
Monmouth
Austin Peay
Howard
Eastern Washington
Sacramento State

Lose and you’re still alive, pending on the field(9):
Furman
Western Illinois
South Dakota
New Hampshire
Delaware
Monmouth
Kennesaw State
Montana
Northern Arizona

Lose and you are almost certainly out(9):
Samford
Western Carolina
Eastern Washington
Sacramento State
Illinois State
Northern Iowa
Nichols
McNeese
Austin Peay

Isn't WCU's last game against FBS University of North Carolina? Will a loss to them affect their FCS chances, or will a quality loss help them?

[Reign of Terrier]

The ones in RED are in for sure
The ones in BLUE cannot be in due to APR sanctions
The ones in GREEN are locks due to AQ if they win

I listed them as "likely in" because I couldn't guarantee some if there were a bunch of 8-3 teams. For instance, I think Furman is a lock at 8-3. Montana is likely a lock as well, but what if there are 12 teams trying to fill 10 spots? On the face of it you could say any of these teams are locks and should be in but then you start making comparisons and it's all relative (FWIW I'd bet $100 8-3 Furman is in, not as confident with Montana)

[walliver]

You have Kennesaw and Monmouth both listed in both "win and you're likely in" and "win and wait see"

[Reign of Terrier]

Not really. There is a reason why SOS and quality wins exist for a reason. Ask the following:

-2016: Dayton (9-2)
-2015: BCU (9-2) San Diego (9-2) Jacksonville (9-2) [Ineligible though]
-2014: NCAT (9-3) BCU (9-3) Jacksonville (9-2)
-2013: Charleston Southern (10-3) Mercer (10-2)
-2012: Albany (9-2) EKU (8-3) UTM (8-3) Lehigh (10-1) Butler (8-3) Drake (8-3) San Diego (8-3)
-2011: UND (8-3) BCU (8-3) Duquesne (9-2) San Diego (9-2) Drake (9-2) Georgetown (8-3)

Should I keep going?

How many of those teams were in a conference without full FCS scholarship allotments or in the MEAC? Eyeballing it, the vast majority of them.

The Southland conference, on the other hand, usually gets a team in if they win 8 or 9 games. There's not precedent for leaving them out with that record.

- - - Updated - - -

You have Kennesaw and Monmouth both listed in both "win and you're likely in" and "win and wait see"

fixed