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  1. #11
    AGS FCS Champion PaladinFan's Avatar
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    Re: SoCon Playoff chaos scenario

    Quote Originally Posted by youngterrier View Post
    I think Wofford has an 80%+ chance of making the playoffs this year. We'll be favored against Chatt, ETSU, VMI and probably are this week against the citadel. Samford will be a competitive game. We only need 2 wins to meet the 7 D1 win mark and since the playoffs have expanded to 20+ teams, an 8-3 Wofford team has not been left out. The infamous 2002 "Wofford team" was 9-3 with 8 D1 wins (maybe more?), but that was in a 16 team field. Absolutely no way we get left out at 8 wins now.

    either way, I'm not concerned about Wofford not making the playoffs, and I think Western will make it as well as they too should be favored against VMI and ETSU. They then need to win 1 of 3 against Citadel, Mercer and Furman, and I think they are capable of winning at least 2 of those.

    Samford is the real 8 ball because it's only been one year where they haven't finished 7-4/8-3 and they've already lost 2 this year with Wofford, Furman and Mercer still on the schedule.

    Having said that, I think a 7-4 Mercer team should get in, as should a 7-4 Furman team.
    As I noted in the other thread, Wofford could finish 9-2, lose to Samford and USC, and finish 3rd in the SoCon.

    That 2013 season is a cautionary tale about handling your business while you have the opportunity to. UTC shared the SoCon title and was left home.
    FU all the time.

    "It's not like we didn't know what was coming. We just couldn't stop them" -WCU head coach Kent Briggs

    "The game we know and love literally grew up in the Southern Conference. To find the foundation for ACC and SEC football, you have to go the league’s roots. To find an appreciation for a brand of football often-overlooked and seldom-appreciated, we as fans should do the same."

  2. #12
    Major FCS Ruler Schism55's Avatar
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    Re: SoCon Playoff chaos scenario

    There are ZERO scenarios where SoCon gets 5 teams in, lol.
    Stop it.
    Sundown in the Paris of the prairie
    Wheat Kings have all their treasures buried

  3. #13
    Major FCS Ruler SU DOG's Avatar
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    Re: SoCon Playoff chaos scenario

    Quote Originally Posted by BisonTru View Post
    Lots will depend on the bubble from around the country as well. Samford will be technically 6-4 against D1 competition and probably the easiest to leave out. Although 6 win teams do get in. It needs a damn good resume with it. 7-4 is no lock either. I will agree 8 wins should be lock for any SoCon team.
    I didn't follow your reasoning for the 6 D1 wins for Samford comment. We have 3 now with 5 games left, so any number from 3 to 8 is mathematically possible, or were you referring to some scenario previously posted?

  4. #14
    AGS FCS Champion
    BisonTru's Avatar
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    Re: SoCon Playoff chaos scenario

    Quote Originally Posted by SU DOG View Post
    I didn't follow your reasoning for the 6 D1 wins for Samford comment. We have 3 now with 5 games left, so any number from 3 to 8 is mathematically possible, or were you referring to some scenario previously posted?
    Yes, the scenario in the OP.

  5. #15
    Top FCS Advocate Terrier19's Avatar
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    Re: SoCon Playoff chaos scenario

    Quote Originally Posted by PaladinFan View Post
    As I noted in the other thread, Wofford could finish 9-2, lose to Samford and USC, and finish 3rd in the SoCon.

    That 2013 season is a cautionary tale about handling your business while you have the opportunity to. UTC shared the SoCon title and was left home.
    IF Wofford finishes 9-2 with losses only to Samford and USC....no way they can finish in anything other than 2nd right?? And that could only be the case if Samford won all the way out, seeing that Wofford already has beaten the only other 1 loss SoCon team right?? Maybe I looked at that wrong....

  6. #16
    Master FCS Advocate BearDownMU's Avatar
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    Re: SoCon Playoff chaos scenario

    This all makes my head hurt. I'm just gonna hope my guys go 1-0 THIS WEEK.

    Rinse. Repeat.

  7. #17
    Top FCS Advocate Terrier19's Avatar
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    Re: SoCon Playoff chaos scenario

    Quote Originally Posted by BearDownMU View Post
    This all makes my head hurt. I'm just gonna hope my guys go 1-0 THIS WEEK.

    Rinse. Repeat.
    LMAO THIS!!!!!

  8. #18
    Top FCS Advocate wcugrad95's Avatar
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    Re: SoCon Playoff chaos scenario

    I don't think anybody with 3 conference losses will feel very good about their chances. Maybe that is more geared towards WCU and Mercer because we both have 2 FBS games, but neither of us can get past 6 (Mercer) or 7 (WCU) wins if we are 5-3 in conference without beating an SEC or ACC team at the end. My no-doubt playoff target for WCU is 8 wins, 6-2 in conference (or a win against UNC), or leave ourselves vulnerable to not make it. And the teams who realistically can get 6 conference wins have a whole bunch of games against each other. My bet is we get no more than 3 teams in. And I haven't done the math to figure out if we can get 4 to 6-2 in conference given the games against each other. We'll have a much better idea in 2 weeks given the schedule.

  9. #19
    Top FCS Advocate wcugrad95's Avatar
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    Re: SoCon Playoff chaos scenario

    Quote Originally Posted by Terrier19 View Post
    IF Wofford finishes 9-2 with losses only to Samford and USC....no way they can finish in anything other than 2nd right?? And that could only be the case if Samford won all the way out, seeing that Wofford already has beaten the only other 1 loss SoCon team right?? Maybe I looked at that wrong....
    If Samford and WCU win-out, they along with Wofford in your scenario would be 7-1 in conference. So a 3-way tie, and tiebreakers outside of head-to-head come into play. That scenario would also give the other schools trying to get into position additional conference losses, and would mean 3 from the SoCon would probably be the max.

    It is probably more realistic that we end up with a 7-1 champion, maybe a couple of 6-2 teams, and then a bunch of 4-4 and 5-3 teams. Then it will be interesting to see if more than 3 get in. Right now part of our problem is that the middle of the pack is a whole bunch of the league, and just about anybody can beat anybody on a given Saturday.

  10. #20
    AGS FCS Champion PaladinFan's Avatar
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    Re: SoCon Playoff chaos scenario

    Quote Originally Posted by wcugrad95 View Post
    If Samford and WCU win-out, they along with Wofford in your scenario would be 7-1 in conference. So a 3-way tie, and tiebreakers outside of head-to-head come into play.
    Right. That was the scenario in 2013. Furman/UTC/Samford all finished with identical conference records and went 1-1 against the other two teams tied for first.

    Hypothetically, WCU/Samford/Wofford could finish with 1 conference loss and a 1-1 record against the other two.

    The next tie breaker is record against the highest ranked team not involved in the tie breaker. In that event, there would be no resolution because all three teams would be undefeated against the rest of the conference.

    I think it then goes to fewest points allowed among the tied teams. No way of knowing that yet, but Wofford would have a pretty good shot at that tie breaker unless WCU and Samford start throwing some shutouts.
    FU all the time.

    "It's not like we didn't know what was coming. We just couldn't stop them" -WCU head coach Kent Briggs

    "The game we know and love literally grew up in the Southern Conference. To find the foundation for ACC and SEC football, you have to go the league’s roots. To find an appreciation for a brand of football often-overlooked and seldom-appreciated, we as fans should do the same."

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