SoCon Playoff chaos scenario

[Reign of Terrier]

As I noted in the other thread, Wofford could finish 9-2, lose to Samford and USC, and finish 3rd in the SoCon.
That 2013 season is a cautionary tale about handling your business while you have the opportunity to. UTC shared the SoCon title and was left home.

At 7-1 we would technically be tied for first, though we may not get the autobid for the playoffs. The difference in this team and the Chattanooga team is that we would have more Division one wins (9>8) and less FCS losses (3>1). We would also, in this hypothetical scenario, still be ranked in the top 20 (though we would drop from 5, presumably beating 3 teams straight wouldn't drop us out of the top 25) while Chattanooga barely finished in the top 25 at the end of that season. Further, we also made it to the playoffs last season, while in 2013 the Mocs had not been to the playoffs in recent memory. This year's team would also have wins over ranked WCU and likely ranked Furman, while Chattanooga that year only had a win over ranked Furman and a 5-6 Wofford team that was 5-3 and finished 5-6

In a hypothetical scenario in which Wofford loses to Samford and gets left out of the playoffs, both losses by Wofford would be by definition quality losses. I don't see how any of three hypothetical 9-2 teams in the Socon gets left out.

There are ZERO scenarios where SoCon gets 5 teams in, lol.
Stop it.

There are scenarios and I've named them. Whether or not it's likely or not is another question. I don't think it's likely. I think we max out at 4, but most likely 3. It's probably equally likely that we get 5 as we get just one.

[Terrier19]

If Samford and WCU win-out, they along with Wofford in your scenario would be 7-1 in conference. So a 3-way tie, and tiebreakers outside of head-to-head come into play. That scenario would also give the other schools trying to get into position additional conference losses, and would mean 3 from the SoCon would probably be the max.

It is probably more realistic that we end up with a 7-1 champion, maybe a couple of 6-2 teams, and then a bunch of 4-4 and 5-3 teams. Then it will be interesting to see if more than 3 get in. Right now part of our problem is that the middle of the pack is a whole bunch of the league, and just about anybody can beat anybody on a given Saturday.

Got ya......in the instance that this happens and only 3 teams make it....that would be 3 strong teams in the playoffs......

[Reign of Terrier]

Right. That was the scenario in 2013. Furman/UTC/Samford all finished with identical conference records and went 1-1 against the other two teams tied for first.

Hypothetically, WCU/Samford/Wofford could finish with 1 conference loss and a 1-1 record against the other two.

The next tie breaker is record against the highest ranked team not involved in the tie breaker. In that event, there would be no resolution because all three teams would be undefeated against the rest of the conference.

I think it then goes to fewest points allowed among the tied teams. No way of knowing that yet, but Wofford would have a pretty good shot at that tie breaker unless WCU and Samford start throwing some shutouts.

I think this is a key point. In a hypothetical scenario in which Wofford beats Citadel and loses to Samford, the above fact would be known by Wofford immediately after the Samford game. Wofford may already have the inside advantage of these teams given our style of play, but we also get the benefit of playing the three worst offensive teams in the conference after playing Samford. There would be a lot of regression to the mean, especially with Wofford knowing that's what it would need for the autobid.

[wcugrad95]

Got ya......in the instance that this happens and only 3 teams make it....that would be 3 strong teams in the playoffs......

Yes - if we had 3 teams playing well enough to finish 7-1 in this league, that would mean those are 3 very good teams. All 3 would have 9 wins. That all sounds great, but I think there are 6 other teams that want to have a say about it.

[WestCoastAggie]

What's a better value: 5-3 in the MVFC, 5-3 in the CAA, or 5-3 in the SoCon?

[wcugrad95]

For playoff invitations, I don't think there is any doubt that SoCon would be 3rd in that list. The other conferences have more and higher ranked teams. Rankings aren't always totally right or objective and you can argue them, but they matter and they would factor big time with this scenario.

[Toby]

Wofford fans are getting excited. Hmmm maybe Citadel is not a bad pick.

[Terrier19]

Wofford fans are getting excited. Hmmm maybe Citadel is not a bad pick.

Wofford fans have been the same as always.....Next opponent up....Pick Citadel at your own risk.....

[Reign of Terrier]

What's a better value: 5-3 in the MVFC, 5-3 in the CAA, or 5-3 in the SoCon?

I'm a Socon guy, but you'd be crazy to not say the MVFC at first glance.

5-3 in the CAA/Socon is about the same though

- - - Updated - - -

Wofford fans are getting excited. Hmmm maybe Citadel is not a bad pick.

What's great about being a not-player is that your attitude has no impact on the outcome of the game.

[longtimemocfan]

As I noted in the other thread, Wofford could finish 9-2, lose to Samford and USC, and finish 3rd in the SoCon.

That 2013 season is a cautionary tale about handling your business while you have the opportunity to. UTC shared the SoCon title and was left home.

It would’ve been nice to say we got into the playoffs 4 straight years. The committee had to chose either us or Samford in which they did the right thing by choosing them since they beat us. In all honesty if we had gotten in you probably would’ve seen the same result in what happened to Samford. We were a very beat up team with a gimpy QB.