Why is it so hard to predict?

**flexbone** · July 5th, 2006, 09:16 AM

After reading other posts and doing a little investigating.....
WHY DO YOU THINK IT IS SO HARD TO PREDICT IN 1-AA ( and not as hard for 1-a)
Last year App st was barely in the top 25 of most poles and I don't believe UNI was on the radar, but both USC and Texas were in the top 5.
James Madison was not even on the radar when they won it. etc..etc..
Is it because the EXPERTS don't pay us much attention?
Too much change, ie transfers,etc, from year to year?
I know when I try to "predict" it seems a lot easier with the 1-a teams compared to the 1-aa teams.

**lucchesicourt** · July 5th, 2006, 09:27 AM

I believe it's s you said.The so-called experts really don't know much about football below 1A. They just look at past history and make predictions. For somewhat proof, the experts predicted UCD was Stanford's cupcake game last year and said UCD did not have a chance. Whereas CKelly, who covers the GWFC, said the Aggie "D" was very good and if they could keep the Aggies around until the 4th quarter anything could happen. The "D" did exactly that!!! Everyone knows the rest.

**bigbluetiger** · July 5th, 2006, 09:29 AM

Most of I-AA talent is unknown and unrated by Rivals and the like making it harder to rank teams. Plus, the championship is played on the field and not voted which increases the chance for upsets.

**carney2** · July 5th, 2006, 09:33 AM

Transfers are a consideration, I suppose, but here are some other thoughts:

1. The talent pool is not very deep compared to I-A, so graduation, injury, etc. problems are magnified.

2. Very few of the true "top" high school recruits (5-star and 4-star) end up in I-AA so true "difference makers" like Richie Williams last year at Appalachian State really have a tremendous impact.

3. Partly because of 1 and 2 above, "chemistry" is very important. The old "wanting it more than the other guy" probably is more important in I-AA than in I-A. This may simply result from the fact that the "other guy" doesn't have that huge talent edge to offset your emotional edge.

4. You hit one: lack of publicity and therefore, lack of knowledge. Who knew last August, for instance that, besides ASU, Texas State, or Brown, or Richmond, or...had real teams?

**SoCon48** · July 5th, 2006, 09:56 AM

Originally Posted by carney2

Transfers are a consideration, I suppose, but here are some other thoughts:

1. The talent pool is not very deep compared to I-A, so graduation, injury, etc. problems are magnified.

2. Very few of the true "top" high school recruits (5-star and 4-star) end up in I-AA so true "difference makers" like Richie Williams last year at Appalachian State really have a tremendous impact.

3. Partly because of 1 and 2 above, "chemistry" is very important. The old "wanting it more than the other guy" probably is more important in I-AA than in I-A. This may simply result from the fact that the "other guy" doesn't have that huge talent edge to offset your emotional edge.

4. You hit one: lack of publicity and therefore, lack of knowledge. Who knew last August, for instance that, besides ASU, Texas State, or Brown, or Richmond, or...had real teams?

or Richmond, or...had real teams

Richmond killed themselves with the pollsters when they lost 3 of their first four games. Pollsters (like many fans) look at records rather than the fact that Richmond faced Vanderbilt, U Mass and Lafayette while the some others racked up nice wins vs the mediocres of I-AA and lower.

**SoCon48** · July 5th, 2006, 09:40 AM

Originally Posted by flexbone

After reading other posts and doing a little investigating.....
WHY DO YOU THINK IT IS SO HARD TO PREDICT IN 1-AA ( and not as hard for 1-a)
but both USC and Texas were in the top 5.
James Madison was not even on the radar when they won it. etc..etc..
Is it because the EXPERTS don't pay us much attention?
Too much change, ie transfers,etc, from year to year?
I know when I try to "predict" it seems a lot easier with the 1-a teams compared to the 1-aa teams.

"Last year App st was barely in the top 25 of most poles and I don't believe UNI was on the radar",

The pollsters don't know enough about I-AA to recognize that so many teams rack up a string of wins vs mediocre compettion while others are week-in week-out facing tough teams. A one point loss to GSU or Furman is worth 5 wins vs dinks. Hell, even a win head to head doesn't convince them.

**kats89** · July 5th, 2006, 09:50 AM

Experts don't know. IMO, I don't think Matt Daugherty really does his homework at times.

**flexbone** · July 5th, 2006, 09:57 AM

Originally Posted by kats89

Experts don't know. IMO, I don't think Matt Daugherty really does his homework at times.

That leads me to my next gripe!!
I know retro sports puts out a good pre-season book , even though I didn't get mine until the mid to end of Sept. last year, BUT couldn't a Lindys, S & S, or Athlon put out a 1-aa Only mag???

**cosmo here** · July 5th, 2006, 10:16 AM

I think there are a couple things to consider here:

1. The Playoff - it's much harder to predict a national champion, since they must win four postseason games instead of only one. Last year, the championship game would have been UNH vs. App State . . App State started the season below the radar, but UNH was highly ranked all year. the same, I would guess, holds true for most if not all of the seasons since the I-AA Playoff began, with at least one if not both of the top two seeds and/or national finalists highly ranked to start the season.

2. The Scholarships - it's much easier for I-A schools to build "dynasties" since they have more scholarships to work with . . USC has reloaded each year since they're able to store players away for a couple years, redshirt them, then roll out their next championship team. I-AA schools aren't afforded that same luxury.

3. The Media - you can point fingers at Matt Dougherty, but he's the only national expert who produces material year-round and writes a lengthy weekly column during the season, covering all of I-AA. you can't find I-A media who are experts on the entire classification, some of them know most of the BCS schools. Matt covers it all.

**89Hen** · July 5th, 2006, 11:18 AM

Originally Posted by cosmo here

1. The Playoff - it's much harder to predict a national champion, since they must win four postseason games instead of only one.

I think that may be the #1 cause. Only two teams get to play for the NC in I-A. The last four years the eventual I-AA NC wouldn't have even gotten to play for it if the polls determined two spots....

2005 - AppSt ranked 5 and 4 at the end of regular season
2004 - JMU 8 and 8
2003 - Delaware 3 and 3
2002 - WKU 15 and 15