Re: 2017 (Too Early) SoCon Football Predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
citdog
All of those numbers from the Mercer game last year mean exactly JACK ****. Jordan Black, who had never taken a college snap, played Quarterback in that one. Mercer couldn't even stop a guy who had never played on their home field in a game they had 6 months to prepare for.
Black had 10 carries for 25 yards. 2.5 ypc - I think CIT expects a bit better rushing production than that from the QB spot. So, I don't think your "couldn't even stop a guy..." comment in the context of my discussion of Mercer's run D vs. the TO carries any weight or luggage. All the Bears could do was line up against the CIT Players that were eligible, available, unsuspended, & uninjured that night. Both Teams had Players that did not play for various reasons.
Are you going to denigrate the replacements for Delaney, Pinson, Williams, Graham, and Johnson next year to dispute actual game results?
Re: 2017 (Too Early) SoCon Football Predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
FUBeAR
Black had 10 carries for 25 yards. 2.5 ypc - I think CIT expects a bit better rushing production than that from the QB spot. So, I don't think your "couldn't even stop a guy..." comment in the context of my discussion of Mercer's run D vs. the TO carries any weight or luggage. All the Bears could do was line up against the CIT Players that were eligible, available, unsuspended, & uninjured that night. Both Teams had Players that did not play for various reasons.
Are you going to denigrate the replacements for Delaney, Pinson, Williams, Graham, and Johnson next year to dispute actual game results?
Guy came in and ran the offense and won a conference game on the road against a team that had a lot of hype and expectations. He also had a better Qb Pass Rating than the fella who had been at Mercer longer than Nealon Greene was at klempsin...
Re: 2017 (Too Early) SoCon Football Predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
FUBeAR
Agree. Studied their 2015 1st game against El Cid very closely. They did a lot of interesting things with personnel groups and stunts/games on the end of the line to confuse the blockers and the QB. They were able to do this because they were able to stop the dive without having to fully commit 4-6 guys to get that piece done - pretty much stopped the dive (either way) with the 3 guys in the middle.
Also would point out that Mercer's D, with the exception of 1 play (70 yd TD on the 2nd play of the game) vs. El Cid, was rather solid against the TO in 2016 as well. Held CIT to 3.76 ypc (with the exception of that 70 yard run) & 11 1st downs rushing. CIT avg'd 5.37 ypc/18 1st downs rushing in 2016. They didn't fare quite so well the following week vs. GT as they took some time to get adjusted to FBS speed in their 1st game vs. an FBS Team in 75 years, but they weren't awful and the outcome was not determined until about 1/2way thru the 4th quarter. Finally, they played an outstanding game vs. Woffy's TO holding the LittleDogs to 205 yards/3.42 ypc and only 10 1st downs rushing - 2nd only to CSU's defense of their rushing game.
The Bears open with 2 TO Teams again in 2017 - 1st JacksonvilleU, then Woffy - both in Macon. Then they'll face their 3rd TO Opponent @ CIT 4 weeks later and, likely, another TO-based Team, @ Furman, 2 weeks after that. It will be interesting to see how having a reasonably solid 2016 vs. the TO and playing 7 games against the TO over the 2016-17 span will work out for Mercer this coming season.
On a more 'macro-level,' Furman should be able to defend the TO well with their familiarity with it as most of the Staff is from CSU or Air Force and, most likely, will be running a version of it themselves. Mercer seems to have it reasonably well figured out and El Cid and Woffy don't seem to be able to do to one another what they have been able to do to non-TO Teams. Didn't do the 'deep analysis' on it, but, at a glance, it appears that Sammy, ETSU, and WCU struggled to stop CIT's and Woffy's running games last year, with VMI & Chatt having mixed results. So, it will be interesting to see how that (the possible rise of Defense-ability by Mercer and Furman vs. the TO) plays out and translates into wins/losses in SoCon games in 2017.
As a former colleague would say, "other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?"
Re: 2017 (Too Early) SoCon Football Predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
citdog
Guy came in and ran the offense and won a conference game on the road against a team that had a lot of hype and expectations. He also had a better Qb Pass Rating than the fella who had been at Mercer longer than Nealon Greene was at klempsin...
...who threw for 100 more yards and ran for 50 more yds & 2 more TD's.
...but I wasn't down-talking young Mr. Black. You were. I thought he played an outstanding game. His passing on the final drive enabled CIT to come away with a come-from-behind, last seconds, 1 point win. I've seen the other guy throw. I don't believe he could have done that.
Re: 2017 (Too Early) SoCon Football Predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
FUBeAR
...who threw for 100 more yards and ran for 50 more yds & 2 more TD's.
...but I wasn't down-talking young Mr. Black. You were. I thought he played an outstanding game. His passing on the final drive enabled CIT to come away with a come-from-behind, last seconds, 1 point win. I've seen the other guy throw. I don't believe he could have done that.
Road Conference "W". I wasn't badmouthing Cadet Black I pointed out that you didn't have to face a 2 year starter at QB who is yet another physical and pounding type fella who knows the checks and runs our version of the TO as good as anyone not named Gene Brown or Jack Douglas. I agree with you that Black is the better passer but barring injury or MORE roster massacres he will have to wait one more year to be the guy in Charleston. If some of the other fellas we have brought in aren't BETTER that is.
Re: 2017 (Too Early) SoCon Football Predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
PaladinFan
As a former colleague would say, "other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?"
I think you need to refresh your schtick. You've used that one before.
Yep - I 'excepted' 1 play in 164 rushing attempts by TO Teams vs. Mercer in 2016. 0.6%. Whatever, Mr. Booth, put it back in...Mercer played exceptional run defense in 2016, especially, relative to other Teams vs. FCS TO Teams....with the exception of the 1st half vs. Chatt. (not a TO Team).
BTW - Unlike JWB's bullet, that 70 yard run was only a flesh wound. The strip sack on the subsequent Offensive series deep in Mercer territory leading to another quick TD & the inability to stop CIT's P/A Passes on the final series were the kill shots. #SicSemperTyrannis
Re: 2017 (Too Early) SoCon Football Predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
FUBeAR
I think you need to refresh your schtick. You've used that one before.
Yep - I 'excepted' 1 play in 164 rushing attempts by TO Teams vs. Mercer in 2016. 0.6%. Whatever, Mr. Booth, put it back in...Mercer played exceptional run defense in 2016, especially, relative to other Teams vs. FCS TO Teams....with the exception of the 1st half vs. Chatt. (not a TO Team).
BTW - Unlike JWB's bullet, that 70 yard run was only a flesh wound. The strip sack on the subsequent Offensive series deep in Mercer territory leading to another quick TD & the inability to stop CIT's P/A Passes on the final series were the kill shots. #SicSemperTyrannis
Fairly descriptive of how a triple option team beats you. It isn't the barrage of 3-4 yard runs that sinks the defense. More often than not it is one or two broken tackles over the course of four quarters. Everyone has an assignment, and one guy out of place will lead to a back breaking play.
Re: 2017 (Too Early) SoCon Football Predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
PaladinFan
Fairly descriptive of how a triple option team beats you. It isn't the barrage of 3-4 yard runs that sinks the defense. More often than not it is one or two broken tackles over the course of four quarters. Everyone has an assignment, and one guy out of place will lead to a back breaking play.
100% right. Thats what facing triple option is. Constant small gains or small losses. In fact the defense gets very confident a lot of times. Then bam. You get hit by that 65 yard unexpected play action pass or miss that one tackle on the FB dive and he goes for 70. Very frustrating. Every defense who loses a close game to a TO team will point to 1 or 2 big plays and that they otherwise shut the team down.
Re: 2017 (Too Early) SoCon Football Predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
PaladinFan
Fairly descriptive of how a triple option team beats you. It isn't the barrage of 3-4 yard runs that sinks the defense. More often than not it is one or two broken tackles over the course of four quarters. Everyone has an assignment, and one guy out of place will lead to a back breaking play.
Exactly & supports my point. CIT only had about 3 other carries over 10 yards & Woffy only had about 5 or 6 over 10; with their longest being 16. That 70 yard CIT run was a single anomaly for Mercer's Run D vs. TO Teams in 2016. 1 out of 164. It was a bug; not a feature.
Re: 2017 (Too Early) SoCon Football Predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
FUBeAR
Exactly & supports my point. CIT only had about 3 other carries over 10 yards & Woffy only had about 5 or 6 over 10; with their longest being 16. That 70 yard CIT run was a single anomaly for Mercer's Run D vs. TO Teams in 2016. 1 out of 164. It was a bug; not a feature.
Yeah but that IS the feature of triple option. Most teams who face triple option and had close games probably have a similar stat. CSU played Citadel 4x, Wofford 1x and Kennessaw St 2x over the last few years, all close games. It was the same. 99% of the plays went for small gains if any. Then bam...we get hit. Its like a boxer setting up a knockout punch with jabs and rope a dopes.
When Citadel beat South Carolina in 2015 it was the same. The Gamecocks handled them pretty much the entire game. But they broke 2 long ass TD runs. Thats it. 2 runs. But the grinding kept USC offense off the field and it wore down and bored their defense. And then the knockout blow came. That's how TO works, its a brilliant and beautiful offense.
I may never get over Wofford beating CSU in the playoffs last year haha. So frustrating defending them!
