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MplsBison
November 6th, 2011, 11:55 AM
Well??

Illinois State:

09/01/11 at Eastern Illinois TV Charleston, Ill. L, 33-26
09/10/11 vs. Morehead State Normal, Ill. W, 52-21
09/17/11 at Youngstown State * Youngstown, Ohio L, 34-27
09/24/11 vs. South Dakota St. * Normal, Ill. W, 20-13
10/01/11 at North Dakota State * TV Fargo, N.D. L, 20-10
10/08/11 at Missouri State * Springfield, Mo. W, 38-13
10/15/11 vs. South Dakota Normal, Ill. W, 28-3
10/22/11 vs. Indiana State * TV Normal, Ill. W, 17-14
10/29/11 at Southern Illinois * TV Carbondale, Ill. W, 38-30
11/05/11 vs. Western Illinois * Normal, Ill. W, 31-7
11/19/11 vs. Northern Iowa * TV Normal, Ill. 11:00 a.m. CT (Assuming loss, otherwise they're in for sure)


Indiana State:

Sat, Sep 03 Penn State - - at State College, Pa. 12:00 p.m. 7 - 41 (L)
Sat, Sep 10 Butler - - Memorial Stadium 2:05 p.m. 48 - 34 (W)
Sat, Sep 17 Western Kentucky - - at Bowling Green, Ky. 7:00 p.m. 44 - 16 (W)
Sat, Sep 24 Youngstown State * - 24 Memorial Stadium 2:05 p.m. 37 - 35 (W)
Sat, Oct 01 South Dakota State * 23 - at Brookings, S.D. 7:00 p.m. 38 - 28 (W)
Sat, Oct 08 Northern Iowa * 17 2 at Cedar Falls, Iowa 5:00 p.m. 9 - 23 (L)
Sat, Oct 15 Western Illinois * 21 - Memorial Stadium 3:05 p.m. 46 - 24 (W)
Sat, Oct 22 Illinois State * 16/17 RV/RV at Normal, Ill. 2:00 p.m. 14 - 17 (L)
Sat, Nov 05 North Dakota State * 16/21 1/1 Memorial Stadium 2:05 p.m. 16 - 27 (L)
Sat, Nov 12 Missouri State * - - at Springfield, Mo. 2:00 p.m. (assuming win)
Sat, Nov 19 Southern Illinois * - - Memorial Stadium 2:05 p.m. (assuming win)


I'd like for both to be in and they're both good enough, but will depend of course on CAA and SoCon results.

Not sure if any of the other conferences deserve more than one, maybe Big Sky and OVC (haven't checked). Certainly no more than two.

Fear the Bird
November 6th, 2011, 12:03 PM
What has ISU-B done? Unless you think YSU is a good win i think they needed to win just one of their 4 money games and they lost all 4

MplsBison
November 6th, 2011, 12:10 PM
What has ISU-B done? Unless you think YSU is a good win i think they needed to win just one of their 4 money games and they lost all 4

If you only look at wins and losses, they have a much worse case. But yes, now that you mention it the Youngstown win should count for something. YSU just barely lost to UNI this week. They're a good team too, but I didn't include them.


From a talent perspective, IN St is more talented than all but a few teams in FCS conferences other than the MVFC, CAA and SoCon. They just had the unfortunate luck to play in the loaded MVFC this year. Same goes for Youngstown.

FargoBison
November 6th, 2011, 12:11 PM
What has ISU-B done? Unless you think YSU is a good win i think they needed to win just one of their 4 money games and they lost all 4

I'd guess their signature win is beating WKU 44-16.

TexasTerror
November 6th, 2011, 12:21 PM
Illinois State has the head-to-head over Indiana State... will get nod if a 'choice' has to be made between the two of them, which is my thinking of what will happen. Of course, Indiana State can eliminate themselves from the picture...

MTfan4life
November 6th, 2011, 12:25 PM
Not sure if any of the other conferences deserve more than one, maybe Big Sky and OVC (haven't checked). Certainly no more than two.

Is that a joke? Montana maybe gets in?

MplsBison
November 6th, 2011, 12:26 PM
So looking around the FCS for playoff teams:

Big Sky - Montana, Montana St
Big South - AQ only
CAA - top 4
Great West - none
Indy's - none
Ivy - n/a
MEAC - AQ only
MVFC - I say top 4, but that's the debate of the thread
NEC - AQ only
OVC - bit of a stretch, but I think it's going to be AQ only
Patriot - I'd love for G-town to get an at-large after they lose to Lehigh, but it's hard. Their N-C is 2 wins over Pioneer schools (worthless), win over low-scholarship Wagner, and the loss to Yale. Hang on a sec, let's see.
SoCon - top 4
Southland - SHSU and maybe UCA
SWAC - none


So with 4 each from MVFC that's 20 by giving MEAC, OVC, Patriot and Southland only one each. Doable.

MplsBison
November 6th, 2011, 12:26 PM
Is that a joke? Montana maybe gets in?

"haven't checked"

Chill out, go have a beer

youwouldno
November 6th, 2011, 12:30 PM
They both have some problems but can make it. In that scenario, Ill St would have 4 FCS losses vs. 3 for Indiana St, but Ill St has the head-to-head and neither has a real marquee win. Relative to one another, the head-to-head probably would be decisive for the committee, though personally I think Indiana St should have a slight edge.

It's hard to say what their chances are though because a lot of games remain, in the MVC and everywhere else. Best guess is probably 3, with 2 or 4 possible.

DJKyR0
November 6th, 2011, 12:30 PM
For what it's worth, I think Illinois State stands a pretty solid chance to taking UNI to the wire and possibly beating them. Their DL is getting better as the year goes on and they can stop the run - as NDSU found, make them pass and you can take advantage of mistakes.

Bison Fan in NW MN
November 6th, 2011, 01:53 PM
Illinois State controls their own playoff destiny. 8-3 and they are a lock.....7-4 and they still could but depends on others.

Indiana State at 7-4 will be interesting. Definitely a "bubble" team.

MplsBison
November 6th, 2011, 02:00 PM
Another way to look at it:

- we know there will be 10 AQ teams
- we know whoever loses the Montana game is getting an at-large

Is it acceptable to give the remaining 9 at-large spots to the MVFC, SoCon and CAA (3 each)? I say, yes - those are the 3 elite conferences and they deserve it.

Dgreenwell3
November 6th, 2011, 02:50 PM
Illinois State controls their own playoff destiny. 8-3 and they are a lock.....7-4 and they still could but depends on others.

Indiana State at 7-4 will be interesting. Definitely a "bubble" team.

My understanding is that an FBS win is a big deal to the committee. Indiana state should have beat Illinois state because that
Would have ended that thought process Likely...
Here's the funny thing: people say indiana state hasn't won anything of importance but apparently illinois state has by beating Indiana state. Anyone else see that hypocrisy?

Bison Fan in NW MN
November 6th, 2011, 02:52 PM
My understanding is that an FBS win is a big deal to the committee. Indiana state should have beat Illinois state because that
Would have ended that thought process Likely...
Here's the funny thing: people say indiana state hasn't won anything of importance but apparently illinois state has by beating Indiana state. Anyone else see that hypocrisy?


Sh**, they beat W Kentucky. Still have 85 schollies.

Hopefully, the Valley gets 4 teams in: NDSU-UNI-ISUr-ISUb

Fear the Bird
November 6th, 2011, 03:01 PM
My understanding is that an FBS win is a big deal to the committee. Indiana state should have beat Illinois state because that
Would have ended that thought process Likely...
Here's the funny thing: people say indiana state hasn't won anything of importance but apparently illinois state has by beating Indiana state. Anyone else see that hypocrisy?

But if you had to pick one the h2h is the deciding factor

FargoBison
November 6th, 2011, 03:07 PM
Yep if it comes down to ISUB vs ISUR the head to head is going to seal it for ISUR.

ISUB needs help...they need UCA and JMU to lose.

Dgreenwell3
November 6th, 2011, 03:13 PM
Sh**, they beat W Kentucky. Still have 85 schollies.

Hopefully, the Valley gets 4 teams in: NDSU-UNI-ISUr-ISUb

Kinda was my point. People say ISUB hasn't beat anyone but reference them for another teams key win. I still think this was the best possible situation for the mvfc. One undefeated an obvious second and two really good ball clubs. Wouldn't be surprised to see Indiana state get in.

BisonFan02
November 6th, 2011, 03:16 PM
Kinda was my point. People say ISUB hasn't beat anyone but reference them for another teams key win. I still think this was the best possible situation for the mvfc. One undefeated an obvious second and two really good ball clubs. Wouldn't be surprised to see Indiana state get in.

I agree. The way playoff caliber teams in other conferences have been getting picked off lately, the odds are pretty good.

heath
November 6th, 2011, 03:23 PM
So looking around the FCS for playoff teams:

Big Sky - Montana, Montana St
Big South - AQ only
CAA - top 4
Great West - none
Indy's - none
Ivy - n/a
MEAC - AQ only
MVFC - I say top 4, but that's the debate of the thread
NEC - AQ only
OVC - bit of a stretch, but I think it's going to be AQ only
Patriot - I'd love for G-town to get an at-large after they lose to Lehigh, but it's hard. Their N-C is 2 wins over Pioneer schools (worthless), win over low-scholarship Wagner, and the loss to Yale. Hang on a sec, let's see.
SoCon - top 4
Southland - SHSU and maybe UCA
SWAC - none


So with 4 each from MVFC that's 20 by giving MEAC, OVC, Patriot and Southland only one each. Doable.

If Georgetown beats Lehigh and both finish 9-2, Georgetown gets AQ and think Lehigh gets bid

MplsBison
November 6th, 2011, 03:52 PM
Criag Haley's bracket is basically right in line with what I'm saying here. Four teams in for each of MVFC (including IN St & IL St), CAA and SoCon.

Interestingly, the CAA could also have Delaware and UMass or JMU at 7-4 - but I just don't see any conference having more than 4 this year.

BisonFan02
November 6th, 2011, 03:56 PM
Criag Haley's bracket is basically right in line with what I'm saying here. Four teams in for each of MVFC (including IN St & IL St), CAA and SoCon.

Interestingly, the CAA could also have Delaware and UMass or JMU at 7-4 - but I just don't see any conference having more than 4 this year.

UMASS is ineligible and Delaware cannot get to 7 DI wins (one of their wins is over West Chester).

MplsBison
November 6th, 2011, 04:03 PM
UMASS is ineligible and Delaware cannot get to 7 DI wins (one of their wins is over West Chester).

Ah - thanks! And Samford played Stillman, so that takes care of the SoCon. So yes, JMU losing would definitely help.

As would some other schools. But JMU in particular with their giant stadium would certainly earn the NCAA more money if they put JMU in the bracket instead of IN St or IL St. Money drives the decision on bubble teams.

Redbird Ray
November 6th, 2011, 04:26 PM
I think all four (NDSU, UNI, ISUR, ISUB) are going regardless of what happens in other conferences. The MVFC is the best league in FCS this year, and deserves at least 4 (and if Youngstown can somehow upset NDSU, I think you would have a case for 5) bids.

Also, don't write off ISUR against UNI. I like our chances at home in that one.

achrist70
November 6th, 2011, 04:36 PM
Personally I do to, UNI has always struggled in Normal.

SDFS
November 6th, 2011, 04:39 PM
So looking around the FCS for playoff teams:

Big Sky - Montana, Montana St
Big South - AQ only
CAA - top 4
Great West - none
Indy's - none
Ivy - n/a
MEAC - AQ only
MVFC - I say top 4, but that's the debate of the thread
NEC - AQ only
OVC - bit of a stretch, but I think it's going to be AQ only
Patriot - I'd love for G-town to get an at-large after they lose to Lehigh, but it's hard. Their N-C is 2 wins over Pioneer schools (worthless), win over low-scholarship Wagner, and the loss to Yale. Hang on a sec, let's see.
SoCon - top 4
Southland - SHSU and maybe UCA
SWAC - none


So with 4 each from MVFC that's 20 by giving MEAC, OVC, Patriot and Southland only one each. Doable.

If SUU wins against UNI this weekend they will have an opportunity to get the 7 D1 wins needed to make the playoffs. So, the Great West playoff hopes are not over yet.

Tod
November 6th, 2011, 04:47 PM
If SUU wins against UNI this weekend they will have an opportunity to get the 7 D1 wins needed to make the playoffs. So, the Great West playoff hopes are not over yet.

That would be interesting. They'd still have to beat NAU in Flagstaff, but UNI is certainly the big test. If they win those two games, they finish 7-4 with an all Div. I schedule, a win over UNLV, and four losses by a combined 16 points. A quality win over UNI would pretty much guarantee them a playoff spot, in my opinion.

youwouldno
November 6th, 2011, 05:06 PM
If SUU wins against UNI this weekend they will have an opportunity to get the 7 D1 wins needed to make the playoffs. So, the Great West playoff hopes are not over yet.

They are pretty good but I think they are out, because they are done with conference play and finished 1-3. In every other respect their resume is fine, but that is a huge problem for them. A lot of teams would have to lose for them to even be on the bubble.

MplsBison
November 6th, 2011, 05:42 PM
I think all four (NDSU, UNI, ISUR, ISUB) are going regardless of what happens in other conferences. The MVFC is the best league in FCS this year, and deserves at least 4 (and if Youngstown can somehow upset NDSU, I think you would have a case for 5) bids.

Also, don't write off ISUR against UNI. I like our chances at home in that one.

Well if you hadn't lost to a 2 win Eastern Illinois team...

Engineer86
November 6th, 2011, 06:52 PM
Well if you hadn't lost to a 2 win Eastern Illinois team...

Wow, that is a terrible loss. Tough to see them getting in without a win over NIU.

MplsBison
November 6th, 2011, 07:31 PM
Wow, that is a terrible loss. Tough to see them getting in without a win over NIU.

I know it's a rivalry game and perhaps EIU lost some players for the season in that game to injury - but it still looks bad.

achrist70
November 6th, 2011, 07:41 PM
Wow, that is a terrible loss. Tough to see them getting in without a win over NIU.

When do they play Northern Illinois?

Engineer86
November 6th, 2011, 08:00 PM
My bad UNI

SDFS
November 6th, 2011, 09:40 PM
They are pretty good but I think they are out, because they are done with conference play and finished 1-3. In every other respect their resume is fine, but that is a huge problem for them. A lot of teams would have to lose for them to even be on the bubble.

If they win out I think they should be in the playoffs - they played a full D-1 schedule - they have an FBS win (UNLV) and they had 4 home games this season.

MplsBison
November 6th, 2011, 09:57 PM
SUU has a win over UT-San Antonio. I don't believe that one would count.

MTfan4life
November 6th, 2011, 11:31 PM
SUU has a win over UT-San Antonio. I don't believe that one would count.

This whole thread is a guess and correcting game. UTSA is FCS. I don't see how it wouldn't count?

MplsBison
November 6th, 2011, 11:49 PM
This whole thread is a guess and correcting game. UTSA is FCS. I don't see how it wouldn't count?

This is their first year of football, don't think that counts as a DI win.

SDFS
November 7th, 2011, 06:31 AM
I thought that they counted this year.

WileECoyote06
November 7th, 2011, 06:52 AM
Since the Great West does not have an autobid, wouldn't SUU be subject to the 'Bridge' Qualifications:


Have at least eight Division I victories;
Beat two teams from auto-bid conferences;
Average a ranking of 16 or higher in the GPI (a combination of human and computer polls)

Twentysix
November 7th, 2011, 08:26 AM
Since the Great West does not have an autobid, wouldn't SUU be subject to the 'Bridge' Qualifications:

Bridge qualification is for a conference who applied for an autobid and was denied. So no.

UNIFanSince1983
November 7th, 2011, 08:28 AM
The problem is that Illinois State has that terrible loss, and if they lose to UNI they really don't have a great win. Indiana State has a good win over a possible Sun Belt champ Western Kentucky, but they lost to Illinois State head to head.

Personally, I think it is very possible the Redbirds can beat UNI in Normal though. We have not been running the football or playing well at all recently. Of course if we do get it figured out they are in trouble. Another thing is IF (never going to actually happen) the Hilltoppers take down LSU this weekend I think Indiana State is in for sure if they win out. ;)

I don't think both get in, but with other bubble teams going down like Light Beer right now anything can happen.

MplsBison
November 7th, 2011, 01:34 PM
The problem is that Illinois State has that terrible loss, and if they lose to UNI they really don't have a great win. Indiana State has a good win over a possible Sun Belt champ Western Kentucky, but they lost to Illinois State head to head.

Personally, I think it is very possible the Redbirds can beat UNI in Normal though. We have not been running the football or playing well at all recently. Of course if we do get it figured out they are in trouble. Another thing is IF (never going to actually happen) the Hilltoppers take down LSU this weekend I think Indiana State is in for sure if they win out. ;)

I don't think both get in, but with other bubble teams going down like Light Beer right now anything can happen.

Assuming JMU loses, which team from a non-elite FCS conference is more deserving than IN St or IL St (whichever is left out) considering the talent?

None that I can think of.

BisonFan02
November 7th, 2011, 01:37 PM
Assuming JMU loses, which team from a non-elite FCS conference is more deserving than IN St or IL St (whichever is left out) considering the talent?

None that I can think of.

If Georgetown were to beat Lehigh, Georgetown would win the autobid and Lehigh would probably get in at-large. That would burst one team's bubble.

WileECoyote06
November 7th, 2011, 02:42 PM
Bridge qualification is for a conference who applied for an autobid and was denied. So no.

Oh okay.

Professor Chaos
November 7th, 2011, 03:04 PM
A weak bubble helps both of these teams. I like to try to do a Joe Lunardi-style "First 4 out" every week looking at the playoff picture and after Illinois St and UCA (which I have as my last 2 in) and Indiana St and JMU (which I have as my first 2 out) there is really a lack of bubble teams out there. The MEAC/OVC could even sneak in a 2nd team in if the chips fall right. But I think the MVFC has a solid chance at getting 4 teams in if both ISUs finish 7-4.

Redbird Ray
November 7th, 2011, 03:27 PM
Yeah we all knew the EIU loss would screw us over, and if that does keep us out of the playoffs, then I can't pose much of an argument other than to say that the selection committee should pay closer attention to the second half of our season. That said, even with the win over suddenly relevant WKU, if Indy State gets in over us at 7-4 with us owning the head to head, I'm going to be pretty xtroublex

But this has been the life of a Redbird football fan over the last decade. A lot of near-miss playoff seasons spoiled by one or two WTF kind of losses. Really no excuse for the EIU loss. Our QB had the worst game of his career, and our pass defense was atrocious in the first month of the season. Too bad that game couldn't be played over this week.

joecooll6
November 7th, 2011, 03:27 PM
I know this is a big if, but just for arguments sake, what if Youngstown were to beat NDSU this week and then get to 7-4 as well? How does that shake things up?

Twentysix
November 7th, 2011, 03:29 PM
I know this is a big if, but just for arguments sake, what if Youngstown were to beat NDSU this week and then get to 7-4 as well? How does that shake things up?

With a win over NDSU they should be in imo.

Redbird Ray
November 7th, 2011, 03:34 PM
I know this is a big if, but just for arguments sake, what if Youngstown were to beat NDSU this week and then get to 7-4 as well? How does that shake things up?

That's why I said earlier that the strength of the MVFC needs to be given a great deal of consideration this year. The MVFC has 5 legit teams that could all get into the playoffs and make noise this year. I think the league ends up sending 4, and I think one of those teams is playing in Frisco in January (no bias whatsoever in this post xlolx).

MplsBison
November 7th, 2011, 05:42 PM
I know this is a big if, but just for arguments sake, what if Youngstown were to beat NDSU this week and then get to 7-4 as well? How does that shake things up?

If NDSU could still be guaranteed the #1 seed in the playoffs - I would actually want NDSU to lose to YSU.

For one, as already mentioned, it would give a possible 5th MVFC team a shot at the playoffs. That's awesome!

Secondly, I hate the thought of NDSU going into the playoffs undefeated because I'm scared the team is going to be satisfied with what they did in the regular season, plus the 1st round bye = Montana State fail from 2010.


That said, guaranteed home field throughout the playoffs is too important to risk.

Fear the Bird
November 7th, 2011, 06:24 PM
I thi k its only a matter of time before the 7 D1 wins becames an afterthought. If ISU-B wins out I do think they just get in. But what if they lose, YSU loses and Lehigh beats GU...the bubble gets ugly at that point no?

Bison Fan in NW MN
November 7th, 2011, 06:26 PM
If NDSU could still be guaranteed the #1 seed in the playoffs - I would actually want NDSU to lose to YSU.

For one, as already mentioned, it would give a possible 5th MVFC team a shot at the playoffs. That's awesome!

Secondly, I hate the thought of NDSU going into the playoffs undefeated because I'm scared the team is going to be satisfied with what they did in the regular season, plus the 1st round bye = Montana State fail from 2010.


That said, guaranteed home field throughout the playoffs is too important to risk.


This, right there!!

Play these last two games like playoff games and come away with wins. The 1st round bye will help heal up some injuries. It will be a very difficult task for any team to come into the FD and win. 3 potential playoff games will be awesome.

Professor Chaos
November 7th, 2011, 06:46 PM
I thi k its only a matter of time before the 7 D1 wins becames an afterthought. If ISU-B wins out I do think they just get in. But what if they lose, YSU loses and Lehigh beats GU...the bubble gets ugly at that point no?
UCA will also be a factor. If they lose along with the above scenarios that last spot (assuming ISU-R gets in in that scenario) will be a mess. At that point Georgetown may still be in the picture merely due to attrition. I'd challenge anyone to find a team with 7 D1 wins and a better resume than Georgetown even with a Lehigh loss should ISU-B, YSU, and UCA all pick up one more loss.

Fear the Bird
November 7th, 2011, 06:50 PM
UCA will also be a factor. If they lose along with the above scenarios that last spot (assuming ISU-R gets in in that scenario) will be a mess. At that point Georgetown may still be in the picture merely due to attrition. I'd challenge anyone to find a team with a better resume than Georgetown even with a Lehigh loss should ISU-B, YSU, and UCA all pick up one more loss.

Agreed i have UCA in but sure they can trip up didnt think about that probably bc i have been high on them all year

MplsBison
November 7th, 2011, 07:36 PM
UCA will also be a factor. If they lose along with the above scenarios that last spot (assuming ISU-R gets in in that scenario) will be a mess. At that point Georgetown may still be in the picture merely due to attrition. I'd challenge anyone to find a team with 7 D1 wins and a better resume than Georgetown even with a Lehigh loss should ISU-B, YSU, and UCA all pick up one more loss.

In that case G-town would only have 6 DI wins, in my opinion. Wins against Pioneer schools are no different than wins against DIII schools.

Hmm...coulda swore someone on this board was asking not too long ago about what people are going to think if the last team in the playoff bracket gets in because they beat Pioneer schools vs. more deserving teams that played full-scholarship teams. xcoffeex

Professor Chaos
November 7th, 2011, 07:49 PM
In that case G-town would only have 6 DI wins, in my opinion. Wins against Pioneer schools are no different than wins against DIII schools.

Hmm...coulda swore someone on this board was asking not too long ago about what people are going to think if the last team in the playoff bracket gets in because they beat Pioneer schools vs. more deserving teams that played full-scholarship teams. xcoffeex
It all depends on whether the playoff committee decides to scrap the 7 D1 win guideline. If they do there are plenty of teams that are probably more deserving than Georgetown but there are a bunch of teams that are falling out of the 7 D1 wins pool. IMO, there are 7 teams fighting for 3 spots in this pecking order:
1) Furman (all they need is one more win in their last two)
2) Illinois St
3) Central Arkansas (they've pretty much been playing playoff games since the calendar hit October - only one more left)
4) James Madison (forgot about them in my last scenario - they'd also need to lose a game for Gtown to have a shot at an at large)
5) Indiana St
6) Youngstown St
7) Georgetown

youwouldno
November 7th, 2011, 08:13 PM
Youngstown can play their way in. I think Southern Utah would have 7 legit D-I wins if they win out, despite UTSA's transitional status. But the precedent is pretty good for Georgetown because South Carolina State made it last year, and their resume was even worse. The committee seems very reluctant to go with a 6 D-I win team.

Squealofthepig
November 7th, 2011, 11:11 PM
I think Southern Utah would have 7 legit D-I wins if they win out, despite UTSA's transitional status.

Just a quick note that this is a pretty big "If", as it would have them winning at the UNI dome, and winning at NAU (much more likely, but still not a gimme). A team that loses at home to North Dakota (sorry Darrell) I don't think sweeps these road venues, but I'll agree - if they do manage to win these two road games, Thunderbirds Are Go.

LakesBison
November 7th, 2011, 11:35 PM
Mvfc could get 5 teams?
Ndsu,uni,ill state, indiana st, youngstown.

They are better than most of the 8-12 rankes teams

MplsBison
November 8th, 2011, 08:42 AM
Just a quick note that this is a pretty big "If", as it would have them winning at the UNI dome, and winning at NAU (much more likely, but still not a gimme). A team that loses at home to North Dakota (sorry Darrell) I don't think sweeps these road venues, but I'll agree - if they do manage to win these two road games, Thunderbirds Are Go.

1-3 conference record and a win vs UTSA (same as a win vs a Pioneer school/DIII school) means they stay home.

Two schools from the Rocky Mts is enough.

MplsBison
November 8th, 2011, 08:48 AM
It all depends on whether the playoff committee decides to scrap the 7 D1 win guideline. If they do there are plenty of teams that are probably more deserving than Georgetown but there are a bunch of teams that are falling out of the 7 D1 wins pool. IMO, there are 7 teams fighting for 3 spots in this pecking order:
1) Furman (all they need is one more win in their last two)
2) Illinois St
3) Central Arkansas (they've pretty much been playing playoff games since the calendar hit October - only one more left)
4) James Madison (forgot about them in my last scenario - they'd also need to lose a game for Gtown to have a shot at an at large)
5) Indiana St
6) Youngstown St
7) Georgetown

Furman isn't going to beat Florida, but I'm assuming they are going to take care of business vs Elon. Any 7-4 or higher SoCon team is in, IMO.

JMU at 7 wins is not only in, but hosting. They'll make the NCAA too much money to keep them out. That's why I hope they lose.

Central Ark only has 6 wins plus a DII win and I wonder if a win over Texas St would count since they're transitioning. Hopefully they lose and that takes care of things. If they win though, sadly I think they'll get a spot.

UNIFanSince1983
November 8th, 2011, 09:00 AM
Since Texas State is transitioning to FBS it counts as a D1 win. The only transitioning teams that don't count (I think) are teams coming up from D2.

I am not sure about start ups, but if they are at FCS level of scholarships or transitioning to FBS level of scholarships they count. I haven't looked this up, and could be completely wrong.

RabidRabbit
November 8th, 2011, 10:04 AM
IIRC, we had the same discussion about Lamar in its first year. Can't remember if counter or non-counter.

GSUhooligan
November 8th, 2011, 10:49 AM
I'd challenge anyone to find a team with 7 D1 wins and a better resume than Georgetown even with a Lehigh loss should ISU-B, YSU, and UCA all pick up one more loss.

If Georgetown beats Lehigh, I think they are in, but

a 7-4 Southern Utah would be in over an 8-3 Georgetown
and I'd think a 7-4 Murray St. or Jax. St. would be in over an 8-3 Georgetown.

Professor Chaos
November 8th, 2011, 11:08 AM
If Georgetown beats Lehigh, I think they are in, but

a 7-4 Southern Utah would be in over an 8-3 Georgetown
and I'd think a 7-4 Murray St. or Jax. St. would be in over an 8-3 Georgetown.
I'll give you Southern Utah since they would have to beat UNI on the road to get to 7-4 but those other two I'd be a little leary over. The OVC isn't any better than the Patriot this year IMO so I don't think a 7-4 OVC team gets in over an 8-3 Patriot team. It's splitting hairs at that point and a lot of teams have to slip up for that to even be a question but hypothetically I don't see it.

MplsBison
November 8th, 2011, 01:15 PM
I'll give you Southern Utah since they would have to beat UNI on the road to get to 7-4 but those other two I'd be a little leary over. The OVC isn't any better than the Patriot this year IMO so I don't think a 7-4 OVC team gets in over an 8-3 Patriot team. It's splitting hairs at that point and a lot of teams have to slip up for that to even be a question but hypothetically I don't see it.

Georgetown should be the absolute last team in. Any high scholarship FCS team that has 7 DI wins against teams not from the Pioneer gets it over G-town.

The 2 Pioneer games are unforgivable as far as strength of schedule goes.

Engineer86
November 8th, 2011, 01:31 PM
I thi k its only a matter of time before the 7 D1 wins becames an afterthought. If ISU-B wins out I do think they just get in. But what if they lose, YSU loses and Lehigh beats GU...the bubble gets ugly at that point no?

Wouldn't Lehigh beating Gtown help clearmup the bubble? Grown would be out likely. A Lehigh loss might create bubble issues for teams though