WrenFGun
November 6th, 2011, 08:12 AM
Since Texas Terror has repeatedly asked me to make my own bracket projections when I have a problem with his (and I admire his, as I know he works quite hard at it) here are my thoughts on the brackets:
Current Seeds:
1. North Dakota State (8-0, wins over UNI, Minnesota [FBS], Illinois State)
2. Sam Houston State (9-0, wins over UCA, New Mexico [FBS])
3. Towson (7-1 in FCS, wins over ODU, Maine)
4. Georgia Southern (7-1 in FCS, win over Furman)
5. Montana State (8-0 in FCS, lack of signature win to date)
I realize these seeds will come off as a bit controversial, but what matters to me is quality of wins. I prefer Towson's wins over Georgia Southern's and Montana State's, even though Towson's loss to Delaware is worse than Montana State's loss to Utah or Georgia Southern's loss to Appalachian State.
Automatic Qualifiers (presuming these 5 above all take AQ's):
Big South: Liberty (neither Liberty or SBU are very good, but maybe this is finally the year)
MEAC: Norfolk State (what a mess; praying they beat Morgan to avoid chaos)
NEC: Albany (though uh-oh if they lose to Monmouth)
OVC: EKU (shocker yesterday, 2 home games to finish the season)
Patriot: Lehigh (get GU at home)
That should leave ten at-large teams left:
1. Montana (7 DI wins, bad loss to Sac State, perhaps quality W over Cal Poly?)
2. New Hampshire (7 DI wins, bad loss to W&M, good wins over JMU, Lehigh)
3. Maine (7 DI wins, good win over JMU, no bad losses)
4. Old Dominion (8 DI wins, good win over JMU, but saying that a lot)
5. Northern Iowa (7 DI wins, good win over ISUb and YSU)
6. Illinois State (7 DI wins, win over ISUb -- play UNI to close season)
7. Wofford (7 DI wins, win over Appalachian State)
8. Appalachian State (6 DI wins, win over Georgia Southern, host WCU next)
9. Furman (6 DI wins, wins over Wofford and App. State, need to beat Elon)
10. Georgetown (8 DI wins, no quality wins, losses to Yale/Bucknell) [REPLACED by UCA if they beat Texas State in the finale, and Georgetown loses to Lehigh]
--
I think the first nine are fairly obvious choices. All are either already qualified or likely to qualify. Georgetown is a bit out of left field, but consider the other options: Indiana State (lost 3 of 4, no lock for 7 DI wins); Youngstown State (travel to NDSU next, if they lose, no 7 DI wins), JMU (lost 3 of 4, two tough games left including @ UMass), the MEAC is a complete mess, and frankly, not very good; Duquesne (can't imagine two NEC's get picked, even if the PL is not a huge step up); Jacksonville State (lost three in a row); Murray State (I mean, a 7-4 OVC team?); UCA (the Southland hasn't been very good either, and I don't know if UCA is going to get there, but they're the best team to possibly sub in).
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First Round Teams:
Liberty, Norfolk State, Albany, EKU, Georgetown, Illinois State, Montana, Old Dominion
Matchups [I haven't done the mileage research here, so Norfolk State/ODU might make more sense, or Liberty/ODU, so feel free to compensate as such]:
Norfolk State @ Liberty
Georgetown @ Old Dominion
EKU @ Illinois State
Albany @ Montana
Big Bracket:
Norfolk State/Liberty winner @ #1 NDSU
Maine @ Northern Iowa
Georgetown/Old Dominion winner @ #4 Georgia Southern
Furman @ #5 Montana State
EKU/Illinois State winner @ #2 Sam Houston State
New Hampshire @ Wofford
Albany/Montana Winner @ #3 Towson
Lehigh @ Appalachian State
--
A couple of notes: if Lehigh/UNH is bussing distance, that matchup probably happens. I unfortunately don't see a tremendous amount of opportunity for regionalization, but did the best I could. Less concerned about the matchups than the selections, though. Let me know what you think.
Current Seeds:
1. North Dakota State (8-0, wins over UNI, Minnesota [FBS], Illinois State)
2. Sam Houston State (9-0, wins over UCA, New Mexico [FBS])
3. Towson (7-1 in FCS, wins over ODU, Maine)
4. Georgia Southern (7-1 in FCS, win over Furman)
5. Montana State (8-0 in FCS, lack of signature win to date)
I realize these seeds will come off as a bit controversial, but what matters to me is quality of wins. I prefer Towson's wins over Georgia Southern's and Montana State's, even though Towson's loss to Delaware is worse than Montana State's loss to Utah or Georgia Southern's loss to Appalachian State.
Automatic Qualifiers (presuming these 5 above all take AQ's):
Big South: Liberty (neither Liberty or SBU are very good, but maybe this is finally the year)
MEAC: Norfolk State (what a mess; praying they beat Morgan to avoid chaos)
NEC: Albany (though uh-oh if they lose to Monmouth)
OVC: EKU (shocker yesterday, 2 home games to finish the season)
Patriot: Lehigh (get GU at home)
That should leave ten at-large teams left:
1. Montana (7 DI wins, bad loss to Sac State, perhaps quality W over Cal Poly?)
2. New Hampshire (7 DI wins, bad loss to W&M, good wins over JMU, Lehigh)
3. Maine (7 DI wins, good win over JMU, no bad losses)
4. Old Dominion (8 DI wins, good win over JMU, but saying that a lot)
5. Northern Iowa (7 DI wins, good win over ISUb and YSU)
6. Illinois State (7 DI wins, win over ISUb -- play UNI to close season)
7. Wofford (7 DI wins, win over Appalachian State)
8. Appalachian State (6 DI wins, win over Georgia Southern, host WCU next)
9. Furman (6 DI wins, wins over Wofford and App. State, need to beat Elon)
10. Georgetown (8 DI wins, no quality wins, losses to Yale/Bucknell) [REPLACED by UCA if they beat Texas State in the finale, and Georgetown loses to Lehigh]
--
I think the first nine are fairly obvious choices. All are either already qualified or likely to qualify. Georgetown is a bit out of left field, but consider the other options: Indiana State (lost 3 of 4, no lock for 7 DI wins); Youngstown State (travel to NDSU next, if they lose, no 7 DI wins), JMU (lost 3 of 4, two tough games left including @ UMass), the MEAC is a complete mess, and frankly, not very good; Duquesne (can't imagine two NEC's get picked, even if the PL is not a huge step up); Jacksonville State (lost three in a row); Murray State (I mean, a 7-4 OVC team?); UCA (the Southland hasn't been very good either, and I don't know if UCA is going to get there, but they're the best team to possibly sub in).
---
First Round Teams:
Liberty, Norfolk State, Albany, EKU, Georgetown, Illinois State, Montana, Old Dominion
Matchups [I haven't done the mileage research here, so Norfolk State/ODU might make more sense, or Liberty/ODU, so feel free to compensate as such]:
Norfolk State @ Liberty
Georgetown @ Old Dominion
EKU @ Illinois State
Albany @ Montana
Big Bracket:
Norfolk State/Liberty winner @ #1 NDSU
Maine @ Northern Iowa
Georgetown/Old Dominion winner @ #4 Georgia Southern
Furman @ #5 Montana State
EKU/Illinois State winner @ #2 Sam Houston State
New Hampshire @ Wofford
Albany/Montana Winner @ #3 Towson
Lehigh @ Appalachian State
--
A couple of notes: if Lehigh/UNH is bussing distance, that matchup probably happens. I unfortunately don't see a tremendous amount of opportunity for regionalization, but did the best I could. Less concerned about the matchups than the selections, though. Let me know what you think.