Playoff Prediction/SaturdayBlitz.com FCS Roundtable

[DJKyR0]

For those who haven't seen it already, saturdayblitz.com is the host site of the FCS Roundtable, where a few media folks from around the country talk FCS football once a week on a given topic. Not to detract from AGS, but it's a very cool feature and a great spotlight of FCS football.

Anyway, this week's topic was a playoff field given how teams might finish, and here's my crack at it. It'll go live later this afternoon. Give the site a try, it's had some good stuff since we started doing it in July.




Big Sky: Montana State - Denarius McGhee is starting to look like the QB I thought he could be.

Big South: Coastal Carolina - Early season win over Furman looks better and better. Big game this weekend vs. quasi-ranked Liberty.

CAA: James Madison - Traditional CAA powers Delaware and W&M are fading fast.

MEAC: Norfolk State - Gutty win over South Carolina State two weeks ago, 3 of last 5 at home including other MEAC undefeated North Carolina A&T on Senior Day.

MVFC: Northern Iowa - Have to acknowledge the way UNI is handling MVFC teams while NDSU has struggled offensively. October 29th looms.

NEC: Albany - Kind of a crapshoot, no at-large bids coming out of this league regardless.

OVC: Jacksonville State - Very tricky conference to try and figure out. The Gamecocks get the nod due to facing Tennessee Tech at home after taking on SEC opponent Kentucky next weekend.

Patriot: Lehigh - The Mountain Hawks are looking every bit the team that beat UNI in the playoffs last season and QB Chris Lum could very well win the Payton. Lehigh's offense is clicking.

SoCon: Wofford - Georgia Southern has a brutal schedule in their final four games, including road trips to Appalachian State and Wofford and finishing the regular season at Alabama. Wofford gets the go-ahead after the Eagles struggled against Chattanooga this past weekend.

Southland: Sam Houston State - The Bearkats are starting to look like a top-5 team in the FCS. Big game on the 22nd at McNeese, who could earn an autobid out of the Southland.

At-Large Bids:

CAA (3) - New Hampshire, Delaware, Maine - Towson out by virtue of 4 of last 6 on the road. Really tough call considering how strong their defense has looked thus far on the season.

MVFC (2) - North Dakota State, Indiana State - Southern Illinois was another team I thought could earn a third at-large bid out of the Valley, but their offense has had struggles passing the ball with starting QB Paul McIntosh out.

SoCon (2) - Georgia Southern, Appalachian State - Huge trap game for the Moutaineers as they hit the road for Furman after facing Georgia Southern on the road, and depending on the outcome of those two games the SoCon could get very interesting. Only two teams based on how the conference mates beat each other up (see Chattanooga @ Citadel).

Big Sky (2) - Montana, Sacramento State - Both have just one remaining road game and Sac State could legitimately run the table. Even with a loss, a win over Pac-12 Oregon State puts the Hornets in, though if I have to say Sac State is definitely my last team in. And with just one at-large bid remaining as the power conferences gobble everything else up, my pick goes to...

OVC (1) - Tennessee Tech - Very tough call. Lack of quality OOC wins due to playing a D-II (W) and Big Ten Iowa (L). Probably 8-2 finish with only real challenge at Jacksonville State. Furman, Chattanooga or Towson could easily swoop in and steal the only non-power conference bid left and leave the other conferences hanging.


Be gentle.

[Walkon79]

Not bad for a Bizon :)

As I said on anotherr thread, EWU has a very good chance to win their remaining games and get an AL as the third BSC team. Where does NDSU play UNI? I think the home team wins that game and wins the AQ.

[Twentysix]

In fargo for the halloween game.

Since the dakota marker is away, it may help push the vs UNI attendance to pretty close to 19,000.

[Fear the Bird]

Delaware is fading fast? Interesting

[Twentysix]

Delaware is fading fast? Interesting

To be fair you are 3-2. Might not be choice words though.

I would say maine gets the CAA crown though. I don't see how you can say they don't after beating JMU and UD.

Or maybe UNH.. but jmu?

[eaglewraith]

App doesn't face Georgia Southern on the road.

They get to receive that *** whipping at home this year.

[IaaScribe]

Coastal Carolina might have the best overall record right now in the Big South, but the Chants have to travel to both Liberty -- which hasn't lost at home in league since '06 -- and Stony Brook, whom Coastal has never beaten. If the Chants win the auto bid, they'll certainly have earned it.

[Twentysix]

No way UTC gets an atlarge at this point. They are going to lose to Wofford and will probably drop atleast one other along the way(Furple)... That puts them at 5 wins...

For chattatownmocs sake I hope they dont win another game.


----------------

Is anyone gonna start and update a 6/7wins thread? I remember them in years past.

[jmufan999]

To be fair you are 3-2. Might not be choice words though.

I would say maine gets the CAA crown though. I don't see how you can say they don't after beating JMU and UD.

Or maybe UNH.. but jmu?

Yeah, I'd agree. Wouldn't be shocked if we won it, it's definitely gutsy to pick JMU at this point. If I were a betting man, I'd pick UNH as the team most likely to win the conference. They also get Maine at home to close out the season. And I think this could be the year they could make it past the 2nd round in the playoffs. Don't trust their defense completely but it won't matter if other teams can't stop Decker.

[unigriff]

IF NDSU keeps winning and assuming UNI can get past the Bunnies and our arch rival SIU, that Halloween game could be the game of the year for FCS. A potential 1 vs. 2 matchup or even just Top 5 Matchup. If NDSU can't sell out the barn for that game, they don't know what football is.

[tribefan40]

Yeah, I'd agree. Wouldn't be shocked if we won it, it's definitely gutsy to pick JMU at this point. If I were a betting man, I'd pick UNH as the team most likely to win the conference. They also get Maine at home to close out the season. And I think this could be the year they could make it past the 2nd round in the playoffs. Don't trust their defense completely but it won't matter if other teams can't stop Decker.

Don't trust their defense completely?!?! They are giving up 38+ a game... Maine has to be the favorite now with the wins over UD and JMU on the road. Most balanced team in the CAA right now by far.

[FanofFCS]

TSN bracket: http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

[msupokes1]

I think the Southland will get McNeese and Sam Houston in this year. That is assuming McNeese does not completely fall apart.

[VBR_Productions]

Below is the link to the roundtable. The guy who runs the site is always seeking additional input, so if you're interested in joining you can email him at [email protected]. The posts usually are posted by Wednesday but it may not be available until tomorrow.

http://saturdayblitz.com/fcs-roundtable/

[Bearkat-Backer]

I think the Southland will get McNeese and Sam Houston in this year. That is assuming McNeese does not completely fall apart.

also assuming Sam does not completely fall apart

[DJKyR0]

Delaware is fading fast? Interesting

In hindsight, meant that just for William and Mary but wanted to state that Delaware isn't the class of the league like it is most recent years. Had to jot this down in about fifteen minutes between classes. Pardon the vernacular.

[Professor Chaos]

IF NDSU keeps winning and assuming UNI can get past the Bunnies and our arch rival SIU, that Halloween game could be the game of the year for FCS. A potential 1 vs. 2 matchup or even just Top 5 Matchup. If NDSU can't sell out the barn for that game, they don't know what football is.
It's pretty much sold out already, all that's left is single seat reserved tickets (about 10) and GA. I'm guessing those will be gone by next week and it'll be nothing but standing room only tickets left unless they release more (unclaimed student tickets, etc).

[james_lawfirm]

App doesn't face Georgia Southern on the road.

They get to receive that *** whipping at home this year.

As to your first point, you beat me to it. As to your second, the App/GaSo game promises to be the GOY. You really don't expect GaSo to win in Boone, do you? I don't. But, it ought to be a good one.

[Fear the Bird]

In hindsight, meant that just for William and Mary but wanted to state that Delaware isn't the class of the league like it is most recent years. Had to jot this down in about fifteen minutes between classes. Pardon the vernacular.

Do we know that yet? At Maine is no picnic and not inconceivable at all to run the table at this point and for the rcord they are 4-2 ( unless you are referring to 3 D-1 wins)

[Strommer10]

As to your first point, you beat me to it. As to your second, the App/GaSo game promises to be the GOY. You really don't expect GaSo to win in Boone, do you? I don't. But, it ought to be a good one.

What a weekend with GaSo @ App St. AND UNI @ NDSU on the same day!

[DJKyR0]

Do we know that yet? At Maine is no picnic and not inconceivable at all to run the table at this point and for the rcord they are 4-2 ( unless you are referring to 3 D-1 wins)

I'm operating on my own assumption that Maine and JMU are going to be the contenders for the CAA, and it might be way too early to say that but Delaware seems down this year to me. I'm not a CAA aficionado so Maine suddenly popping up and beating people makes me think the power is shifting, but again, I could be way off.

As far as running the table, to my untrained eye it looks plausible. @ Towson looks like a rough game with how their defense has been playing, and two winnable home games, @ URI, and neutral location vs. a struggling Nova squad. I'd tentatively put Delaware at 8-3, which is to say 7 DI wins. Maybe that's just me not appreciating the CAA for the bearcat of a conference that it is and assuming a conference champion would have more than 8 wins.

[Strommer10]

Nice work on this kyle. Only thing I would definitelychange would be Maine as the CAA champs and JMU as an auto-bid. Pretty good field though! xthumbsupx

[Sycamore51]

Quick question for you guys, since playoff talk is new to us at INST.
How good of a chance would INST have of getting in the playoffs with a 7-4 record, 5-3 in the MVFC? Let's say our losses are to UNI, NDSU, Penn St, and one other valley school plus an FBS win. If we finish 3rd in the league, what chance would we have to get in?

[eaglewraith]

As to your first point, you beat me to it. As to your second, the App/GaSo game promises to be the GOY. You really don't expect GaSo to win in Boone, do you? I don't. But, it ought to be a good one.

Hey, it's homer optimism.

I don't expect it to be a blowout...however I do expect us to go into Black Saturday and leave App heartbroken.

[JmuSkinsfan]

Here is how I see the CAA breaking down (Just for fun, played out)

Maine: 9-2 (7-1) - URI (W) @UR (L) @Nova (W) Towson (W) UMass (W) @UNH (W)
UNH: 8-3 (6-2) - @WM (W) @UMass (W) URI (W) JMU (L) @Towson (W) Maine (L)
JMU: 8-3 (6-2) - Nova (W) @ODU (W) @UNH (W) URI (W) @Umass (L)
Towson: 8-3 (6-2) - @ODU (W) @WM (W) UD (W) @Maine (L) UNH (L) @URI (W)
Delaware: 8-3 (6-2) - UMass (W) @URI (W) @Towson (L) Richmond (W) @Nova (W)
ODU: 7-4 (4-4) - Towson (L) Nova (W) JMU (L) UR (L), @WM (W)

5 teams in ... ODU out at 7-4. Honestly, I don't even know if ODU would make it if they went 8-3 ... their attrocious OOC schedule will prevent that. ODU fans can get up in arms all they want, but there might be 7-4 teams with more quality wins than an 8-3 ODU. Nova, WM, UMass, Hampton, Campbell, Georgia State, Rhode Island ... none of which are quality, by any means.

[Eaglesrus]

As to your first point, you beat me to it. As to your second, the App/GaSo game promises to be the GOY. You really don't expect GaSo to win in Boone, do you? I don't. But, it ought to be a good one.

Not saying we'll win, but it's also not like we haven't done it before, and with a team that wasn't as talented overall as this year's is.

[danefan]

Quick question for you guys, since playoff talk is new to us at INST.
How good of a chance would INST have of getting in the playoffs with a 7-4 record, 5-3 in the MVFC? Let's say our losses are to UNI, NDSU, Penn St, and one other valley school plus an FBS win. If we finish 3rd in the league, what chance would we have to get in?

Ultimately depends on what else happens nationally (e.g., if there stronger 7 or 8 win teams), but I'd say 7-4 with an FBS win (even if it is over WKU - I mean it was an asskicking) is a pretty good bet.

[Twentysix]

Quick question for you guys, since playoff talk is new to us at INST.
How good of a chance would INST have of getting in the playoffs with a 7-4 record, 5-3 in the MVFC? Let's say our losses are to UNI, NDSU, Penn St, and one other valley school plus an FBS win. If we finish 3rd in the league, what chance would we have to get in?

You would be in. But you would play all of the playoffs on the road. (Cause 7-4 wouldn't merit a seed, and because Inst couldnt afford to outbid most other schools)

[Fear the Bird]

Here is how I see the CAA breaking down (Just for fun, played out)

Maine: 9-2 (7-1) - URI (W) @UR (L) @Nova (W) Towson (W) UMass (W) @UNH (W)
UNH: 8-3 (6-2) - @WM (W) @UMass (W) URI (W) JMU (L) @Towson (W) Maine (L)
JMU: 8-3 (6-2) - Nova (W) @ODU (W) @UNH (W) URI (W) @Umass (L)
Towson: 8-3 (6-2) - @ODU (W) @WM (W) UD (W) @Maine (L) UNH (L) @URI (W)
Delaware: 8-3 (6-2) - UMass (W) @URI (W) @Towson (L) Richmond (W) @Nova (W)
ODU: 7-4 (4-4) - Towson (L) Nova (W) JMU (L) UR (L), @WM (W)

5 teams in ... ODU out at 7-4. Honestly, I don't even know if ODU would make it if they went 8-3 ... their attrocious OOC schedule will prevent that. ODU fans can get up in arms all they want, but there might be 7-4 teams with more quality wins than an 8-3 ODU. Nova, WM, UMass, Hampton, Campbell, Georgia State, Rhode Island ... none of which are quality, by any means.

You think Maine will lose at UR but win at UNH and you really think UNH will lose both home games to JMU and Maine?! I'm having a tough time coming to grips with UD losing to Towsn, but they will probably trip up once more and that has to be the most likely one so agree there.

[JmuSkinsfan]

You think Maine will lose at UR but win at UNH and you really think UNH will lose both home games to JMU and Maine?! I'm having a tough time coming to grips with UD losing to Towsn, but they will probably trip up once more and that has to be the most likely one so agree there.

Some of those games are tough to call ... but I also find it hard to believe that UNH and Maine both win out. Teams lose games they aren't supposed to in conference. There always seems to be that "stumble" game. For example, I think JMU wins out, then loses the last week at Umass, which would be an expected win if we were 8-2 at that point. Also, I have a hard time seeing Richmond lose out. I think Richmond will play spoiler, particularly at home, at some point, which is why I could see Maine stumbling there. I also think UNH defense is suspect. I think Maine is the best team in the conference, and should beat UNH ... and I also have a hard time accepting that JMU loses to UNH ... we play them too well and UNH doesn't have much of a homefield advantage (or defense, for that matter), and I think JMU can shut down their offense enough to make a difference, so yes, that's my reasoning behind them losing 2 at home. Finally, Delaware @ Towson is tough. Honestly, picking any Towson game is tough, since they are still somewhat unknown, but I have a hard time seeing anyone, let alone Delaware, winning out in conference, so that's why I stuck that as your one loss down the stretch.

[jmufan999]

Quick question for you guys, since playoff talk is new to us at INST.
How good of a chance would INST have of getting in the playoffs with a 7-4 record, 5-3 in the MVFC? Let's say our losses are to UNI, NDSU, Penn St, and one other valley school plus an FBS win. If we finish 3rd in the league, what chance would we have to get in?

Everyone with 7 D-1 wins is on the bubble. Best you can do is cross your fingers if that happens. Probably depends on what happens in other conferences. It also might depend on what WKU does the rest of the year. An FBS win is great, but if they end up with 1 win at the end of the year, it doesn't look as good.

[tribefan40]

Here is how I see the CAA breaking down (Just for fun, played out)

Maine: 9-2 (7-1) - URI (W) @UR (L) @Nova (W) Towson (W) UMass (W) @UNH (W)
UNH: 8-3 (6-2) - @WM (W) @UMass (W) URI (W) JMU (L) @Towson (W) Maine (L)
JMU: 8-3 (6-2) - Nova (W) @ODU (W) @UNH (W) URI (W) @Umass (L)
Towson: 8-3 (6-2) - @ODU (W) @WM (W) UD (W) @Maine (L) UNH (L) @URI (W)
Delaware: 8-3 (6-2) - UMass (W) @URI (W) @Towson (L) Richmond (W) @Nova (W)
ODU: 7-4 (4-4) - Towson (L) Nova (W) JMU (L) UR (L), @WM (W)

5 teams in ... ODU out at 7-4. Honestly, I don't even know if ODU would make it if they went 8-3 ... their attrocious OOC schedule will prevent that. ODU fans can get up in arms all they want, but there might be 7-4 teams with more quality wins than an 8-3 ODU. Nova, WM, UMass, Hampton, Campbell, Georgia State, Rhode Island ... none of which are quality, by any means.

I agree with other posters and think it's unlikely that UNH drops both those home games. More likely that Maine beats UR and drops the game at UNH. I also don't think WM will drop all their remaining home games. Should be able to pick up one of those.

[JmuSkinsfan]

I agree with other posters and think it's unlikely that UNH drops both those home games. More likely that Maine beats UR and drops the game at UNH. I also don't think WM will drop all their remaining home games. Should be able to pick up one of those.

True. WM should be able to beat ODU ... you even play UNH well so I wouldn't be surprised if you beat them. It's just hard to say "I think WM will win this game but not these 3" ... I'm sure you will ... I still think WM is a quality team ... just hard to pick one game over others is all.

[Walkon79]

What a weekend with GaSo @ App St. AND UNI @ NDSU on the same day!

Yeah, and Montana State / Idaho State TOO!! xlolxxlolxxlolx

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Everyone with 7 D-1 wins is on the bubble. Best you can do is cross your fingers if that happens. Probably depends on what happens in other conferences. It also might depend on what WKU does the rest of the year. An FBS win is great, but if they end up with 1 win at the end of the year, it doesn't look as good.

You and danefan have the bead on it. 7-4 isn't gonna make you a lock. It means you are to be considered and that there are many factors in that consideration. If there are any 8-3 teams they have the nod over you even with an FBS win especially over a team like WKU unless they do some winning. It's slightly more likely now with the expansion of course.

[RabidRabbit]

IF NDSU keeps winning and assuming UNI can get past the Bunnies and our arch rival SIU, that Halloween game could be the game of the year for FCS. A potential 1 vs. 2 matchup or even just Top 5 Matchup. If NDSU can't sell out the barn for that game, they don't know what football is.

If SDSU upsets UNI and NDSU at home, even the Jacks may sneek back into play-offs. But one game at a time. Time for some games on the prairie!

[Strommer10]

Yeah, and Montana State / Idaho State TOO!! xlolxxlolxxlolx

How could I have missed that one? xlolxxlolx xthumbsupx

[Twentysix]

If SDSU upsets UNI and NDSU at home, even the Jacks may sneek back into play-offs. But one game at a time. Time for some games on the prairie!

Hows the old mudpit doing?

[james_lawfirm]

Not saying we'll win, but it's also not like we haven't done it before, and with a team that wasn't as talented overall as this year's is.

True that. It's the game we've all circled since the summer.

[Hammerhead]

Last year NDSU got in with a 7-4 record and only 4-4 in conference games so it is possible. I doubt that would happen every year. :)


Quick question for you guys, since playoff talk is new to us at INST.
How good of a chance would INST have of getting in the playoffs with a 7-4 record, 5-3 in the MVFC? Let's say our losses are to UNI, NDSU, Penn St, and one other valley school plus an FBS win. If we finish 3rd in the league, what chance would we have to get in?

[Twentysix]

Last year NDSU got in with a 7-4 record and only 4-4 in conference games so it is possible. I doubt that would happen every year. :)

If the sycamores bid $100,000 to host nonseed games they probably would.

http://a5.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc1/9324_139508129396_616899396_2602912_4562551_n.jpg

[Strommer10]

Last year NDSU got in with a 7-4 record and only 4-4 in conference games so it is possible. I doubt that would happen every year. :)

I would think Ind St. would definitely get in with a 7-4 record. With the 20 team bracket, it creates 4 more spots for 7 D1 teams to get into the playoffs.

[Walkon79]

How could I have missed that one? xlolxxlolx xthumbsupx

I would almost consider going to Fargo rather than Bozeman that weekend. (Almost). It's only about 3 hours difference for me. Can't wait to come out in 2013 though.

[Strommer10]

I would almost consider going to Fargo rather than Bozeman that weekend. (Almost). It's only about 3 hours difference for me. Can't wait to come out in 2013 though.

We can't wait to have you guys come to Fargo! I know I deeply regret not getting work off last December for the Cats/Bison playoff game. Who knows, maybe we will meet up again this year!

I have always been a fan of the Montana schools and enjoy seeing them on the schedule. xnodx

[appfan2008]

TSN bracket: http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

we wont be on the road in the first road... period... we would out bid anyone...

[Professor Chaos]

I would think Ind St. would definitely get in with a 7-4 record. With the 20 team bracket, it creates 4 more spots for 7 D1 teams to get into the playoffs.
It only creates 2 more at larges. The NEC and Big South were awarded autobids as part of the expanded playoff field and in most years those teams who get the autobid would not be in the normal pool of teams in contention for an at large.

[Fear the Bird]

we wont be on the road in the first road... period... we would out bid anyone...

Some people will just never fully understand how the playoffs work, sigh

[tribefan40]

Some people will just never fully understand how the playoffs work, sigh

Care to enlighten us?

My understanding is that bids are THE major factor in determining host teams, particularly in the first round, and I'm pretty sure APP would bid with the best of them.