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View Full Version : Picking the Patriot League With the Patsy Ratings



carney2
August 6th, 2011, 08:42 AM
Here is a very crude forecast of the 2011 Patriot League order of finish using the Patsy Ratings from the past 4 years:

1 Lehigh
2 Holy Cross
3 Lafayette
4 Bucknell
5 Colgate
6 Georgetown

This compares to last week's predictions by the League coaches and SIDs:

1 Lehigh
2 Colgate
3 Holy Cross
4 Lafayette
5 Georgetown
6 Bucknell

bjtheflamesfan
August 6th, 2011, 09:31 AM
explain the "patsy ratings" for thos eof us who are unaware carney

carney2
August 6th, 2011, 10:03 AM
explain the "patsy ratings" for thos eof us who are unaware carney

For each of the past 5 years or so a committee - The Committee - evaluates each of the Patriot League recruiting classes and assigns points - Patsy Points - based on a complicated - more complicated that I dare go into here - rating system. It is, The Committee believes, as objective an evaluation system as we can get for this very subjective area. The Patsy Points are then added up and the recruiting classes are ranked. Ergo, the "Patsy Ratings."

How did this start? Frankly some members of The Committee were tired of watching the annual process where alums lined up to pat Coach Terwilliger on the back and tell him, and themselves, what a grand bunch of footballers he had rounded up, when the truth usually was...not so much.

This post then is a crude attempt to use the Patsy Ratings of incoming recruiting classes as a predictor of the 2011 Patriot League order of finish. You will note that there is some good, and some bad. Actually, the only really "bad" is Colgate. The rest of the Patsy Ratings predictions are more or less in agreement with the preseason poll of the coaches and SIDs.

What is the lesson we take from this? Recruit well and you will win. Recruit poorly and you won't.

Bogus Megapardus
August 6th, 2011, 10:17 AM
explain the "patsy ratings" for those of us who are unaware carney

And keep in mind that we in the Patriot League are a decidedly self-deprecating bunch (after a century of abuse at the hand of that "better" league). We accept and embrace the "Patsy League" moniker and all the snickering and aspersions that come with it.

Bogus Megapardus
August 6th, 2011, 10:22 AM
Here is a very crude forecast of the 2011 Patriot League order of finish using the Patsy Ratings from the past 4 years:

1 Lehigh
2 Holy Cross
3 Lafayette
4 Bucknell
5 Colgate
6 Georgetown

I'll eat Ed Norton's fedora if Colgate places fifth. But I'd best get prepared and try it with a little buffalo sauce, because stranger things have happened.

Pard4Life
August 6th, 2011, 10:47 AM
Holy Cross is going to be a persistent force around this league... even without Randolph. I don't buy what the ratings say, because if it were so, Boise State would be finishing in the 40s. It's coaching and development. I am not sold on Coen at all, and Biddle is the best.

RichH2
August 6th, 2011, 12:53 PM
Carney
If you can you should latch onto PhilSteele's FCSmag. He basically uses your system to rate incoming recruits for all FCS schools. He may use a few more of the rating services but it appears his ranking of classes not dissimilar to yours,

Of course, the Patsy rating is correct for the upcoming seasonxthumbsupx altho I must admit Gate at 5 has me troubled. Camp is here this week and football is back.
The doldrums have been survived for another year.xpeacex

CrusaderBob
August 6th, 2011, 12:55 PM
carney,

I assume that this is a composite ranking of the last 4 years worth of Patsy Rankings.

If so, did the committee weight the rankings at all? so the current senior class for example would count for say 40% of the rank, juniors 30 %, etc. Where experience and upper classmen play a bigger role on the team, it would make some sense. I think I did this after the fact following last season and believe it or not, it was pretty acurate. And more accurate than the unweighted scores. If I can find it, I will post.

carney2
August 6th, 2011, 02:14 PM
carney,

I assume that this is a composite ranking of the last 4 years worth of Patsy Rankings.

If so, did the committee weight the rankings at all? so the current senior class for example would count for say 40% of the rank, juniors 30 %, etc. Where experience and upper classmen play a bigger role on the team, it would make some sense. I think I did this after the fact following last season and believe it or not, it was pretty acurate. And more accurate than the unweighted scores. If I can find it, I will post.

I was not a math major and my degree is from a lowly Patriot League institution, but it went something like this:

2008 (current seniors): total Patsy Points multiplied by 5. A significant negative adjustment was made to Georgetown's total because this was the year of the 7 quarterbacks.

2009 (juniors): total Patsy Points multiplied by 3.

2010 (sophomores): total Patsy Points as reported with no multiplier.

2011 (freshmen): disregarded.

From there we simply added them up and put them in order.

DFW HOYA
August 6th, 2011, 02:25 PM
Of Georgetown's seven QB's in that class, two remain on the roster, a QB and a converted TE.

In fact, of the 16 offensive recruits that season, only five made it to senior year on the team.

carney2
August 6th, 2011, 02:30 PM
Of Georgetown's seven QB's in that class, two remain on the roster, a QB and a converted TE.

In fact, of the 16 offensive recruits that season, only five made it to senior year on the team.

Also, I note that one of those 7 QBs, James Brady, is listed as a junior on New Hampshire's roster. He started against Lafayette in his freshman year and was impressive. If any New Hampshire poster reads this, I would love to know how he's doing and where he stands on the depth chart.

Bogus Megapardus
August 6th, 2011, 02:30 PM
Of Georgetown's seven QB's in that class, two remain on the roster, a QB and a converted TE.

In fact, of the 16 offensive recruits that season, only five made it to senior year on the team.

And we though the attrition in Pardsville was bad. Are these kids still in school?

DFW HOYA
August 6th, 2011, 02:43 PM
Are these kids still in school?

Last I checked, all but three were. To the question on Brady, he is #2 on the UNH depth chart at QB.

And those wondering about the Georgetown juniors, 28 entered in the fall of 2009. Fourteen are on the 2011 roster.

Go Lehigh TU owl
August 6th, 2011, 03:46 PM
Holy Cross is going to be a persistent force around this league... even without Randolph. I don't buy what the ratings say, because if it were so, Boise State would be finishing in the 40s. It's coaching and development. I am not sold on Coen at all, and Biddle is the best.

The Cecchini addition was huge. The offense, while stagnent at times, was able to make big plays when it had to. They also put up 30 points 4 times and 40 once. Lehigh's "O" hadn't done that in several years. There's no reason to believe the offense won't take another step forward this year.

Coen might not be Biddle but he's assembled a very good staff for this level imo. He has two guys that could be head coaches as assistants, Cech and K, that's a huge asset imo.

Pard4Life
August 6th, 2011, 03:56 PM
The Cecchini addition was huge. The offense, while stagnent at times, was able to make big plays when it had to. They also put up 30 points 4 times and 40 once. Lehigh's "O" hadn't done that in several years. There's no reason to believe the offense won't take another step forward this year.

Coen might not be Biddle but he's assembled a very good staff for this level imo. He has two guys that could be head coaches as assistants, Cech and K, that's a huge asset imo.

True... the offense looked better... I went to two non-LC Lehigh games and I didn't see much of the clueless offense we had seen in earlier years... ie guys following routes, more rythm, decisive passes.

ngineer
August 6th, 2011, 08:46 PM
True... the offense looked better... I went to two non-LC Lehigh games and I didn't see much of the clueless offense we had seen in earlier years... ie guys following routes, more rythm, decisive passes.

Yes, that had a lot to do with Cecchini. A real OC, as opposed to the prior guy who hadn't even played football (except on video games).

heath
August 7th, 2011, 01:29 PM
Didn't the patsy ratings have the Lafayette senior class from last year ranked 1st as a freshman class? Not a very good sign if that was true,unless the next 2 classes were weak

Andy
August 7th, 2011, 06:48 PM
Didn't the patsy ratings have the Lafayette senior class from last year ranked 1st as a freshman class? Not a very good sign if that was true,unless the next 2 classes were weak

Of the 30 member LC class of '07, 16 remained on the roster last year and 2 of those were out for the season due to injury.

carney2
August 8th, 2011, 08:32 AM
Didn't the patsy ratings have the Lafayette senior class from last year ranked 1st as a freshman class? Not a very good sign if that was true,unless the next 2 classes were weak

It would require some digging and I will be unavailable for some time.