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View Full Version : Last year's AGS Preseason poll - how did we do?



Squealofthepig
May 15th, 2011, 03:44 PM
Ahh, preseason polling time. As I look forward to next year, I also looked back at last year, seeing how I could improve as a voter, and see how our preseason perceptions last year fared.

Below are our top 25 preseason teams from last year, and how we fared in our predictions. Number in parentheses is where they wound up in the final poll.

2010 preseason poll: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?69567-AGS-Pre-Season-Poll-Results&highlight=AGS+preseason+poll
2010 final poll: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?80844-AGS-2010-Post-Playoff-Poll-Results.&highlight=ags+final+poll

1) Villanova (3). Returning national champion, and another good year.
2) Montana (20). Perhaps we should've been more skeptical of a new coach; still, hard to second-guess this.
3) Appalachian State (5). Even without AE, ASU is still ASU.
4) William & Mary (9). Although they finished a bit lower than the preseason, this still looks like a pretty good preseason place.
5) SIU (not ranked, finished 5-6). When six teams in your conference go 4-4, it's frustrating for voters and fans. SIU gave Youngstown state their only conference win, and also lost to SEMO.
6) New Hampshire (7). That's pretty darned consistent!
7) Elon (not ranked, finished 6-5). Elon was a couple of plays away from having an entirely different season, and had a great run at the end of the season - unfortunately, tough close losses early kept them out of our minds.
8) Richmond (not ranked - well, #27). Attrition in the CAA and some really weird defensive games (11-10 over UMass?). An early home loss to Delaware foreshadowed the Hens' resurgence.
9) SDSU (not ranked). The Jackrabbits' 2009 collapse continued into 2010. Playing Delaware and Nebraska on the road didn't help.
10) South Carolina State (19). Since most of us don't follow the MEAC, I think we did an OK job with this pick. Their home loss to Bethune-Cookman told us who to really watch out for.
11) Stephen F. Austin (11). Nailed it!
12) Northern Iowa (17). Given the MVC last year, can't fault ourselves too much here
13) McNeese State (not ranked). Scheduling two FBS teams from power conferences (Missouri and LSU) really hurt the Cowboys (losing both games by a combined 82-16); home losses to Cal Poly and SFA didn't help.
14) Eastern Washington (1). I'm actually pretty pleased we had EWU ranked as high as we did; the debut of the new field may have helped, but the Eagles arrived in style.
15) Delaware (2). Nice to see we had EWU and the Hens ranked so close together!
16) JMU (not ranked). Three games into the season, we thought we had the Dukes under-ranked, with a memorable win over Virginia Tech. Then - they played Delaware. It's like a theme! The Dukes had five losses by a total of 34 points.
17) Jacksonville State (12). Another great win over an FBS team - overall, hard to fault us here.
18) Weber State (unranked). A quadruple overtime win over an improving Northern Colorado was exciting - but bracketing your season with FBS powers Boston College and Texas Tech - and a few stumbles - led to a 6-5 season.
19) Liberty (19). Sweet.
20) Furman (unranked). Home losses to Chattanooga and GSU and a few tough road losses.
21) Eastern Illinois (unranked). Did anyone guess they'd finish 2-9? A surprising year for the panthers. (And thanks DJKyR0 for noting I put them in the MVC. Bah, either too much or too little beer)
22) Montana State (10). A good year for the Cats.
23) Cal Poly (24).
24) Pennsylvania (15). A solid year for the Quakers.
25) Holy Cross (unranked). Seems about right.

So who did we miss?

Georgia Southern (4). Thanks Eaglesrus for reminding me to add them! Although the first half of the year was about what many expected, the Eagles followed up a great home win over App State with two road conference games - then playoff wins at home vs. SC State and on the road over The Tribe. Would also add Georgia Southern had the sixth largest average attendance in the FCS this year.
NDSU (6). A weird year for the MVC, maybe, but the Bison finally made believers out of the voters by the end of the year.
Wofford (8). Hooray for the Terriers! I don't remember much preseason buzz, but Wofford had a great year.
SEMO (13). Biggest surprise from a non-major conference.
Lehigh (14). They won at UNI but then had to play at Delaware. Great season.
Western Illinois (16). This even surprised longtime Western Illinois fans. Next thing you know, even Indiana State will be winning games! Oh, wait...
Northern Iowa (17). The panthers bounced back in the weird MVC.
Bethune-Cookman (18) They put up lots of points all season until finally stumbling at the very end.
UMass (21). CAA attrition? Nope, the Minutemen had a good season.
Robert Morris (22). A fun team all year to debate.
Coastal Carolina (25) Some more love for the mid majors.

TL;DR: overall, I think we did pretty well. The MVC we couldn't figure out, and attrition in the CAA moved some teams in and out of the rankings. A few teams underperformed, and a few more surprised us. Here's hoping this year is just as surprising!

DJKyR0
May 15th, 2011, 06:20 PM
Heh, not to burst your bubble but Eastern Illinois isn't in the MVFC. Other than that (and the obligatory zero-love-for-NDSU gripery my fandom forces upon me) AGS had a pretty good go-around last year.

darell1976
May 15th, 2011, 06:35 PM
Wait til next season when the GWFC moves into the "BIG" Big Sky conference. Lots of good teams joining an already good conference. If you couldn't figure out the MVFC last season next years Big Sky will be worse.

Squealofthepig
May 15th, 2011, 06:58 PM
Heh, not to burst your bubble but Eastern Illinois isn't in the MVFC. Other than that (and the obligatory zero-love-for-NDSU gripery my fandom forces upon me) AGS had a pretty good go-around last year.

Crap! Thanks. Worst part about that is my best friend's grandfather played football for EIU. Thanks for the correction, and apologies to EIU/MVFC fans!

Thundar
May 15th, 2011, 07:17 PM
Wait til next season when the GWFC moves into the "BIG" Big Sky conference. Lots of good teams joining an already good conference. If you couldn't figure out the MVFC last season next years Big Sky will be worse.

Yeah its going to be a Dog fight between UM, MSU and EWU

Eaglesrus
May 15th, 2011, 08:09 PM
Shouldn't GA Southern be in the "who we missed" group?

Squealofthepig
May 15th, 2011, 08:24 PM
Shouldn't GA Southern be in the "who we missed" group?

Absolutely - how'd I skip that? Editing the first post.

Eaglesrus
May 15th, 2011, 08:48 PM
Absolutely - how'd I skip that? Editing the first post.

No problem; you summed it up well when you added us.

JMUNJ08
May 15th, 2011, 10:52 PM
Our list looks pretty good with some teams really nailed before a snap was taken! Great job fellow voters!