Week 11 Playoff Prognostications

[TexasTerror]

Changed out UMass for Cal Poly. Minutemen are last team in and have to go to Bozeman

The most recent playoff prognostications, courtesy of TT.

And criticize me all you want, but it sure is fun to take a stab at this thing and I'd encourage you guys to try as well! xnodx

PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICATIONS
Memorial Day (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?t=69543)
End of June (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?69953-End-of-June-Playoff-Prognostications)
Start of August (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?70430-Start-of-August-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 1 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73204-Week-1-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 2 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73887-Week-2-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 3 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?74546-Week-3-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 4 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?75010-Week-4-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 5 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?75648-Week-5-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 6 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?76077-Week-6-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 7 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?76683-Week-7-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 8 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?77185-Week-8-Playoff-Prgonostications/)
Week 9 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?77640-Week-9-Playoff-Prognostications/)
Week 10 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?78203-Week-10-Playoff-Prognostications)

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)
Clinched the AQ

Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Big South: Stony Brook
Colonial: Delaware
MEAC: Bethune-Cookman
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lehigh
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana, Montana State
Colonial: William & Mary, New Hampshire, Richmond, UMass
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State
Ohio Valley: SE Missouri
Southern: Wofford

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Robert Morris @ Stony Brook
Lehigh @ South Carolina State
Southeast Missouri @ Richmond
UMass @ Montana State

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Robert Morris/Stony Brook winner @ #1 Delaware
New Hampshire @ Northern Iowa

UMass/Montana State winner @ #4 Stephen F Austin
Bethune-Cookman @ #5 Jacksonville State

Lehigh/South Carolina State winner @ #2 Appalachian State
Wofford @ William & Mary

SEMO/Richmond winner @ #3 Eastern Washington
North Dakota State @ Montana

NOTES

Big Sky. Montana State, Eastern Washington are in. Montana joins in with a win at home.
Big South. Three teams in the mix. Stony Brook won a big one at Coastal, wins big one at Liberty.
Colonial. Richmond and UMass make it. UMass benefits from other issues around the nation. Is rooting for a few things to go their way.
Great West: Cal Poly falls out after their loss to UC-Davis.
MEAC. Bethune-Cookman gets in with a win over FAMU. If So Carolina State wins, they are in.
MVFC. Northern Iowa is taken care of. NDSU win at Missouri State would would put them at 8-3 with wins in last four. In.
NEC. Robert Morris has their ticket. CCSU just does not have the impressive wins (losses to UNH, YSU).
OVC. Tough loss by SEMO to Jax State. SEMO's solid year gets them in anyway and Jax State wraps up AQ with win vs TTU
Patriot. Lehigh is in. No one else going dancing.
SoCon. Appy is in with wins over Woffrd and Chatty. Wofford gets in. Victory over Chatty would definitely keep out of first round.
Southland. Northwestern State's loss to Nicholls ended their day. SFA gets AQ with win vs NWST. McNeese gets to 7-4, but the victory over Lamar is not a counter.

[theasushow]

pretty good.....but montana state playing in the opening round is a little questionable, they might be ranked close to the top 5 when the polls come out this week.

[TexasTerror]

pretty good.....but montana state playing in the opening round is a little questionable, they might be ranked close to the top 5 when the polls come out this week.

I got them losing to the Griz...

[BlueHenSinfonian]

I'm thinking UMass gets in from the CAA before Richmond, I doubt the Tribe will drop the game next week.

[B&G]

I think App and Bethune have both clinched their auto bids.

[TexasTerror]

I'm thinking UMass gets in from the CAA before Richmond, I doubt the Tribe will drop the game next week.

Richmond beat UMass... so if they end up with same record, Spiders go on.


I think App and Bethune have both clinched their auto bids.

A FAMU win over Bethune-Cookman knots up the standings between the two. SCSU is still around though too, but if they lose while FAMU wins - believe FAMU goes...

[BlueHenSinfonian]

Richmond beat UMass... so if they end up with same record, Spiders go on.



A FAMU win over Bethune-Cookman knots up the standings between the two. SCSU is still around though too, but if they lose while FAMU wins - believe FAMU goes...

If both have the same record, yes, but I think Richmond loses next week and UMass wins, giving the nod to UMass.

[FargoBison]

UCD 22
Cal Poly 21

You might want to redo some of this...

[Gil Dobie]

If Montana St beats Montana they get a seed over EWU due to head-to-head, IMO.

[Spiderbone]

I'm thinking UMass gets in from the CAA before Richmond, I doubt the Tribe will drop the game next week.

True but see this from my post in the Judgement day thread....

W&M/Richmond game you can throw all the records out the window...UR beat JMU and UMASS (W&M lost to JMU and UMASS) W&M beat UNH, NOVA and Delaware (UR lost to those three)...depends who is trending down and who is trending up. After today W&M not looking its best...The Spiders were abysmal on offense today with 56 minutes of gut-wrenching, stick multiple needles in my eye while waterboarding me (URI had 5 interceptions I think, two fumbles, two blocked field goals, two blocked XP's)
The last 4 minutes however the Spiders found some mojo somewhere scored two touchdowns to win (one passing 77 yards and one after a 50+ run in the last 2 minutes). On the other hand the Spiders defense was mighty good and about the best I have seen them this year.

Prediction...damned if I know, but I will be there...the Spiders have won the past two games by a total of 4 points.

[McNeeserocket]

[i]Southland. Northwestern State's loss to Nicholls ended their day. SFA gets AQ with win vs NWST. McNeese gets to 7-4, but the victory over Lamar is not a counter.

You do realize that if both McNeese and SFA lose next week that there will be a three way tie for Southland Champion between McNeese, SFA and Northwestern. If that happens, then Northwestern will get auto bid because the tie breaker will come down to who has not been to the playoffs in the longest period of time.

If McNeese and SFA both win next week, then both share Southland title, but SFA gets auto playoff qualifier because of head to head win. If McNeese wins and SFA loses then McNeese is lone Southland champion and gets auto qualifier. SFA would probably still go to playoffs because of their over all record.

[Spiderbone]

You do realize that if both McNeese and SFA lose next week that there will be a three way tie for Southland Champion between McNeese, SFA and Northwestern. If that happens, then Northwestern will get auto bid because the tie breaker will come down to who has not been to the playoffs in the longest period of time.

If McNeese and SFA both win next week, then both share Southland title, but SFA gets auto playoff qualifier because of head to head win. If McNeese wins and SFA loses then McNeese is lone Southland champion and gets auto qualifier. SFA would probably still go to playoffs because of their over all record.


What the hell kind of deciding factor is that? Nurse to Surgeon......Hey Jack you get to take out this guy's spleen because its been 20 years since you've done it!

[theasushow]

What the hell kind of deciding factor is that? Nurse to Surgeon......Hey Jack you get to take out this guy's spleen because its been 20 years since you've done it!

lmao...i think the panthers should make the playoffs this year too. why? because i said so.

[Retro]

Mcneese can still go to the playoffs with a win and SFA getting the autobid because the "7 D-I Wins" everyone keeps discussing is not a solid rule! If my memory is correct, the selection committee will consider the amount of D-I wins as factor, but they do not clearly state that a team with less than 7 D-I wins cannot be selected.

[FargoBison]

Mcneese can still go to the playoffs with a win and SFA getting the autobid because the "7 D-I Wins" everyone keeps discussing is not a solid rule! If my memory is correct, the selection committee will consider the amount of D-I wins as factor, but they do not clearly state that a team with less than 7 D-I wins cannot be selected.

Which 7 DI win team would McNeese jump?

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

IF Lehigh can get past Laffer i'd like to see them host Robert Morris or Umass. Otherwise a trip to Amherst wouldn't be bad either. For some reason i want Umass. Maybe it's my inner Temple taking over.

[JJWooten]

You do realize that if both McNeese and SFA lose next week that there will be a three way tie for Southland Champion between McNeese, SFA and Northwestern. If that happens, then Northwestern will get auto bid because the tie breaker will come down to who has not been to the playoffs in the longest period of time.

If McNeese and SFA both win next week, then both share Southland title, but SFA gets auto playoff qualifier because of head to head win. If McNeese wins and SFA loses then McNeese is lone Southland champion and gets auto qualifier. SFA would probably still go to playoffs because of their over all record.

That's after a nice laundry list of other criteria that must fall through first:

(a) If three (3) or more teams are tied and if one (1) should have an advantage in head-to-head competition over the other teams, that team shall be the automatic bid recipient;

(b) If three (3) or more teams are tied and if two (2) or more should have an advantage in head-to-head competition over the other team, those teams with the advantage shall be evaluated using the two-way or multiple tie-breaking procedures and the other team eliminated; and/or

(c) If three (3) or more teams remain tied, the won-lost record against the teams finishing in order below the tied position shall be utilized in sequence until the tie is broken. When comparing tied teams' records against other teams below the tie in question, all other teams not involved in the tie are eligible to be compared with. [11/08]

6.03.02.03 Unbreakable Ties. If a tie remains after the above procedures are attempted, the NCAA Championship-eligible member that has been absent from the Division I Championship for the longest period of time shall be designated as the Conference's representative in the Division I Championship.

http://www.southland.org/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=18400&ATCLID=205016114

[TwoFeathers]

If Villanova beats Delaware (possible) and W&M beats Richmond (likely), Tribe wins the CAA and gets the AQ (no??).

[caribbeanhen]

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Robert Morris/Stony Brook winner @ #1 Delaware

now thats a real second round snoozer match up.... I hope not

[caribbeanhen]

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Colonial: William & Mary, New Hampshire, Richmond
MEAC: South Carolina State

What has the MEAC ever done to impress any college football fan? At large here is a joke if taken over Nova and yes I know about the 6 win rule - 6 - thats how many losses SCST would have in the CAA

[umassfan]

If W&M gets beat by Richmond like you assume then I would make a case anyways that UMass would get in over W&M due to the head to head win. If you want to use it in richmond favor beating us by 1 pt with 5 secs left then I could use UMass's win over W&M on week one in our favor.

[WrenFGun]

My thoughts:

Big Sky: Eastern Washington, Montana, Montana State
CAA: Delaware, W&M, UNH, UMass
Big South: Stony Brook
MEAC: Bethune-Cookman
MVC: Northern Iowa, North Dakota State
NEC: RMU
OVC: Jacksonville State, SEMO STATE
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Appalachian State, Wofford
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

These assumptions are that SEMO STATE's OOC win over a pretty poor SIU team will hold up, particularly since they have wins over UNI and WIU, now. I think North Dakota State might have a shot even at 7-4 with their win over Kansas, though I project them, for now, to beat MOST. I also project UNH to handle their business over Towson, and URI to fall in a close one to UMass, so both get in there. I think Montana will beat Montana State at home.

That leaves a pretty precarious situation for the final two spots. I project 'Nova and Richmond to lose, so that would be the first two I'd have in if they got to 7-4.

I think the teams still in contention at 7-4 or above after these projections are as follows: WIU (if they somehow beat UNI), Sacramento State (with a win over UC Davis), Weber State (with a win over Texas Tech), SC State (9-2), CCST (8-3 with a win over St. Francis), Jacksonville and Dayton (PFL), Chattanooga (7-4 with a win over Wofford), Georgia Southern (7-4 with a win at Furman) and McNeese State/UCA (7-4 with a win over the other).

Of this group, only WIU, Weber State, SC State, Jacksonville, Dayton, Chattanooga and Georgia Southern could claim 7 DI wins. With that group, it looks likely that Weber State would be favored to lose given the fact that they're playing at FBS Texas Tech.

That means that my ranking for the last spots if they win are as follows:

1. WIU
2. Chattanooga
3. Georgia Southern

If at least two of them win, I think the puzzle stops right there. After that, I see the potential for a 6-5 CAA Team, Sacramento State, or GASP, a second MEAC or Southland ..

[inpsite1919]

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Colonial: William & Mary, New Hampshire, Richmond
MEAC: South Carolina State

What has the MEAC ever done to impress any college football fan? At large here is a joke if taken over Nova and yes I know about the 6 win rule - 6 - thats how many losses SCST

would have in the CAA

You assume that's how many wins SCSU would have.

[caribbeanhen]

You assume that's how many wins SCSU would have.

wins? no ... 6 Losses for SCST in the CAA

[CopperCat]

I got them losing to the Griz...

UM looked average at best against a UND team that doesn't have a QB. If I was an MSU player I would be licking my chops for that game.

[inpsite1919]

Richmond beat UMass... so if they end up with same record, Spiders go on.



A FAMU win over Bethune-Cookman knots up the standings between the two. SCSU is still around though too, but if they lose while FAMU wins - believe FAMU goes...

BCU has cliched the AQ for the MEAC

[heath]

IF Lehigh can get past Laffer i'd like to see them host Robert Morris or Umass. Otherwise a trip to Amherst wouldn't be bad either. For some reason i want Umass. Maybe it's my inner Temple taking over.

a 9-2 Lehigh should host the SB/Liberty winner,with that winner playing @ Delaware

[JSUBison]

My thoughts:

Big Sky: Eastern Washington, Montana, Montana State
CAA: Delaware, W&M, UNH, UMass
Big South: Stony Brook
MEAC: Bethune-Cookman
MVC: Northern Iowa, North Dakota State
NEC: RMU
OVC: Jacksonville State, SEMO STATE
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Appalachian State, Wofford
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

These assumptions are that SEMO STATE's OOC win over a pretty poor SIU team will hold up, particularly since they have wins over UNI and WIU, now. I think North Dakota State might have a shot even at 7-4 with their win over Kansas, though I project them, for now, to beat MOST. I also project UNH to handle their business over Towson, and URI to fall in a close one to UMass, so both get in there. I think Montana will beat Montana State at home.

That leaves a pretty precarious situation for the final two spots. I project 'Nova and Richmond to lose, so that would be the first two I'd have in if they got to 7-4.

I think the teams still in contention at 7-4 or above after these projections are as follows: WIU (if they somehow beat UNI), Sacramento State (with a win over UC Davis), Weber State (with a win over Texas Tech), SC State (9-2), CCST (8-3 with a win over St. Francis), Jacksonville and Dayton (PFL), Chattanooga (7-4 with a win over Wofford), Georgia Southern (7-4 with a win at Furman) and McNeese State/UCA (7-4 with a win over the other).

Of this group, only WIU, Weber State, SC State, Jacksonville, Dayton, Chattanooga and Georgia Southern could claim 7 DI wins. With that group, it looks likely that Weber State would be favored to lose given the fact that they're playing at FBS Texas Tech.

That means that my ranking for the last spots if they win are as follows:

1. WIU
2. Chattanooga
3. Georgia Southern

If at least two of them win, I think the puzzle stops right there. After that, I see the potential for a 6-5 CAA Team, Sacramento State, or GASP, a second MEAC or Southland ..

I believe Sacremento State has a D2 win on their resume. A Davis win makes 6, and no way do they get in with 6 D1 wins while a CAA with 7 sits at home.

[unigriff]

My thoughts:

Big Sky: Eastern Washington, Montana, Montana State
CAA: Delaware, W&M, UNH, UMass
Big South: Stony Brook
MEAC: Bethune-Cookman
MVC: Northern Iowa, North Dakota State
NEC: RMU
OVC: Jacksonville State, SEMO STATE
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Appalachian State, Wofford
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

These assumptions are that SEMO STATE's OOC win over a pretty poor SIU team will hold up, particularly since they have wins over UNI and WIU, now. I think North Dakota State might have a shot even at 7-4 with their win over Kansas, though I project them, for now, to beat MOST. I also project UNH to handle their business over Towson, and URI to fall in a close one to UMass, so both get in there. I think Montana will beat Montana State at home.

That leaves a pretty precarious situation for the final two spots. I project 'Nova and Richmond to lose, so that would be the first two I'd have in if they got to 7-4.

I think the teams still in contention at 7-4 or above after these projections are as follows: WIU (if they somehow beat UNI), Sacramento State (with a win over UC Davis), Weber State (with a win over Texas Tech), SC State (9-2), CCST (8-3 with a win over St. Francis), Jacksonville and Dayton (PFL), Chattanooga (7-4 with a win over Wofford), Georgia Southern (7-4 with a win at Furman) and McNeese State/UCA (7-4 with a win over the other).

Of this group, only WIU, Weber State, SC State, Jacksonville, Dayton, Chattanooga and Georgia Southern could claim 7 DI wins. With that group, it looks likely that Weber State would be favored to lose given the fact that they're playing at FBS Texas Tech.

That means that my ranking for the last spots if they win are as follows:

1. WIU
2. Chattanooga
3. Georgia Southern

If at least two of them win, I think the puzzle stops right there. After that, I see the potential for a 6-5 CAA Team, Sacramento State, or GASP, a second MEAC or Southland ..

Well WIU isn't going to beat UNI, so you just gotta worry about Chatty and GS.

[WrenFGun]

I believe Sacremento State has a D2 win on their resume. A Davis win makes 6, and no way do they get in with 6 D1 wins while a CAA with 7 sits at home.

I agree, but if there are not enough candidates with 7 DI wins then Sacramento State's computer numbers vault them into the discussion ..

[UNH Fanboi]

There's no way a 6 D1 win team is getting in with two 10-1 teams waiting on the wings.

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

[i]Robert Morris/Stony Brook winner @ #1 Delaware
New Hampshire @ Northern Iowa

Sorry....can never happen.xpeacex

UNH_Alum_CT and PantherRob have an agreement.xshhhx
UNH and UNI can never ever ever be in the same side of the bracket again.

The only way UNH and UNI can play is in the finals.:D

[JMUNJ08]

Sorry....can never happen.xpeacex

UNH_Alum_CT and PantherRob have an agreement.xshhhx
UNH and UNI can never ever ever be in the same side of the bracket again.

The only way UNH and UNI can play is in the finals.:D

Isn't UNI/UNH a bowl tie in type senario? Each makes the playoffs so they must play each other ala Hawaii to the Hawaii bowl and Navy to the one in Annapollis?? They can't just leave tradition can they?

[LEHIGH61]

I also have a "gut" feeling we will be facing UMass, at home or away. Memories of 1977 and 1998.

[Chi Panther]

Sorry....can never happen.xpeacex

UNH_Alum_CT and PantherRob have an agreement.xshhhx
UNH and UNI can never ever ever be in the same side of the bracket again.

The only way UNH and UNI can play is in the finals.:D

Its easily the most stressful school/game UNI has ever played....

[Go Cats]

I agree and montana then does not get in. I don't argue montanas past success but this season is not about the past, only the present. money IMO should never determine who gets into the playoffs or where the game is played, at lest in my world.

[TexasTerror]

If Montana State beats Montana - they won't get in.

[Mattymc727]

Sorry....can never happen.xpeacex

UNH_Alum_CT and PantherRob have an agreement.xshhhx
UNH and UNI can never ever ever be in the same side of the bracket again.

The only way UNH and UNI can play is in the finals.:D

I want a rematch so bad, even if its a first round game

[Reign of Terrier]

YT's playoff teams
Robert Morris
Lehigh
Appalachian State
Northern Iowa
Montana St.
Eastern Washington
Delaware
W&M
Bethune-Cookman
S. Carolina St.*
North Dakota St.
Southeast Missouri
Jacksonville St.
Wofford
Stephen F. Austin
Montana*
Stony Brook
New Hampshire
Massachusetts
Ga. Southern

*subject to change

[DSUrocks07]

If Montana State beats Montana - they won't get in.

Both ways? xlolx

[DOME]

Which UNI/UNH was stressful? Haha, at least we got wins in the last three meetings.

Buy yea, it is law that UNI and UNH play a nail-biter every time...

[DSUrocks07]

BCU has cliched the AQ for the MEAC

no they didn't...

[DOME]

Which UNI/UNH was stressful? Haha, at least we got wins in the last three meetings.

Buy yea, it is law that UNI and UNH play a nail-biter every time...

[Cincy App]

I have appreciated reading the predictions of Texas Terror and others as the season has played out.

For what it's worth, my prediction entering Week 12 follows:

Round One:
Robert Morris at Lehigh
Stony Brook at UMass
SC State at Ga Southern
SE Missouri at Montana St

Round Two:
Lehigh/ Robert Morris at #1 Delaware
New Hampshire at Northern Iowa
UMass/ Stony Brook at #4 SF Austin
Wofford at #5 Jacksonville State
Ga Southern/ SC State at #2 Appalachian St
Bethune Cookman at William & Mary
Montana St/ SE Missouri at #3 E. Washington
North Dakota St at Montana

The following Week 12 results are predicted:
CAA – Delaware, UNH, UMass, and W&M win
SoCon – GSU wins and Chattanooga loses (Chatt has inside track to playoff spot with win though)
MVC – UNI and ND State win
Big Sky – UM wins “Wild” game
Southland - SFA wins

Other Comments:
- UNI vs. UNH – a postseason tradition
- ND State – Would likely host if they are placed in first round. Can host in second round but it all depends on the matchup. I think UNI is a more likely MVC host based on past playoff history.
- My scenario has both GSU and SC State advancing but I don’t think either team controls its own destiny.
- I think CAA gets up to 5 teams in playoffs if all 4 loss teams win – but not 6.

I expect my predictions to look much different after Week 12 games are played out!

[Redwyn]

I have appreciated reading the predictions of Texas Terror and others as the season has played out.

For what it's worth, my prediction entering Week 12 follows:

Round One:
Robert Morris at Lehigh
Stony Brook at UMass
SC State at Ga Southern
SE Missouri at Montana St

Round Two:
Lehigh/ Robert Morris at #1 Delaware
New Hampshire at Northern Iowa
UMass/ Stony Brook at #4 SF Austin
Wofford at #5 Jacksonville State
Ga Southern/ SC State at #2 Appalachian St
Bethune Cookman at William & Mary
Montana St/ SE Missouri at #3 E. Washington
North Dakota St at Montana

The following Week 12 results are predicted:
CAA – Delaware, UNH, UMass, and W&M win
SoCon – GSU wins and Chattanooga loses (Chatt has inside track to playoff spot with win though)
MVC – UNI and ND State win
Big Sky – UM wins “Wild” game
Southland - SFA wins

Other Comments:
- UNI vs. UNH – a postseason tradition
- ND State – Would likely host if they are placed in first round. Can host in second round but it all depends on the matchup. I think UNI is a more likely MVC host based on past playoff history.
- My scenario has both GSU and SC State advancing but I don’t think either team controls its own destiny.
- I think CAA gets up to 5 teams in playoffs if all 4 loss teams win – but not 6.

I expect my predictions to look much different after Week 12 games are played out!

Is there precedent for them re-matching teams that met during the regular season in their first game? U Mass visited SBU early this season.

[Cincy App]

Is there precedent for them re-matching teams that met during the regular season in their first game? U Mass visited SBU early this season.

There have been many first round matchups of teams that met in the regular season over the years. Recently, Illinois State and Eastern Illinois had a first round rematch in 2006 and Montana and Cal Poly had a first round rematch in 2005. There may have been others more recent than these that I overlooked.

The Playoff Selection Committee (PSC) wants to set up as many "bus trips" or regional games as possible. Thus, it will create as many matchups of teams within 400 miles of each other as possible - regardless if such out of conference teams have already played.

[Big Dawg]

BCU has cliched the AQ for the MEAC

No they haven't...

[IaaScribe]

No they haven't...

They might as well have. The only way BCU doesn't get it is if it loses to FAMU and S.C. State loses to North Carolina A&T. That second one ain't happenin...

[emilimo701]

Robert Morris @ Lehigh --|
at |---|
Delaware (1) --| |
|---|
New Hampshire --| | |
at |---| |
Northern Iowa --| |
|---|
Wofford --| | |
at |---| | |
William & Mary (5) --| | | |
|---| |
Jacksonville @ Bethune-Cookman --| | |
at |---| |
Jacksonville State (4) --| |
|
Stony Brook @ Massachusetts --| |
at |---| |
Eastern Washington (3) --| | |
|---| |
Southeast Missouri State --| | | |
at |---| | |
Stephen F. Austin --| | |
|---|
Montana State --| |
at |---| |
North Dakota State --| | |
|---|
S Carolina St @ GA Southern --| |
at |---|
Appalachian State (2) --|
The bracket, as I made it above, assumes that all favorites win this weekend.

Auto-bids:
Delaware (CAA)
Appalachian State (Southern)
Jacksonville State (Ohio Valley)
Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
Montana State (Sky)
Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley)
Bethune-Cookman (MEAC)
Robert Morris (Northeast)
Lehigh (Patriot)
Stony Brook (Big South)

At-Large:
Eastern Washington (Sky)
William & Mary (CAA)
New Hampshire (CAA)
Wofford (Southern)
SE Missouri St (Ohio Valley)
North Dakota State (Missouri Valley)
Massachusetts (CAA)
Georgia Southern (Southern)
South Carolina St (MEAC)
Jacksonville (Pioneer)

Bubble teams ("need" win next week):
Montana
New Hampshire
Villanova
Richmond
Chattanooga
Massachuetts
Western Illinois
Georgia Southern
^ If five out of these eight teams win this week, Jacksonville then South Carolina State are knocked out of bracket. If more than five win, I'm predicting those teams in playoffs in order listed (GA Southern with least precedence). If less than three of these eight teams win, could we see a year in which the "7-counting-D1-wins" guideline is ignored? Teams like a 7-4 McNeese State, 6-5 James Madison, 7-4 Weber State, or any of teams listed above even after losing, could be considered?

As for the bracket above, would you guys switch J'ville/B-C and GASouthern/SC State for competitive purposes or leave as is for geographical/cost purposes?

[Big Dawg]

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Colonial: William & Mary, New Hampshire, Richmond
MEAC: South Carolina State

What has the MEAC ever done to impress any college football fan? At large here is a joke if taken over Nova and yes I know about the 6 win rule - 6 - thats how many losses SCST would have in the CAA

That has to be one of the DUMBEST thing I've ever read

[bkrownd]

If W&M gets beat by Richmond like you assume then I would make a case anyways that UMass would get in over W&M due to the head to head win. If you want to use it in richmond favor beating us by 1 pt with 5 secs left then I could use UMass's win over W&M on week one in our favor.

Minutemen got pounded at home by UNH and Delaware down the stretch, which is going to weigh heavily against us much more than beating W&M early helps us.

[TexasTerror]

Do we think a seven win team with just six Division I wins will be considered? It seems in some pockets of the FCS message board community, there is some consideration to it...

[WrenFGun]

Do we think a seven win team with just six Division I wins will be considered? It seems in some pockets of the FCS message board community, there is some consideration to it...

TT, I think it depends. If Montana, Georgia Southern, WIU, Chattanooga, Villanova, UMass and Richmond all go down, I think you're going to have to consider 6 DI win teams (starting with James Madison, IMO) in comparison to SC State, Liberty, etc. given their terrible GPI's.

[emilimo701]

TT, I think it depends. If Montana, Georgia Southern, WIU, Chattanooga, Villanova, UMass and Richmond all go down, I think you're going to have to consider 6 DI win teams (starting with James Madison, IMO) in comparison to SC State, Liberty, etc. given their terrible GPI's.

don't forget about New Hampshire! ;)

[emilimo701]

TT, I think it depends. If Montana, Georgia Southern, WIU, Chattanooga, Villanova, UMass and Richmond all go down, I think you're going to have to consider 6 DI win teams (starting with James Madison, IMO) in comparison to SC State, Liberty, etc. given their terrible GPI's.

Also, in that scenario, you could put Liberty, SC State, and Jacksonville in the bracket and STILL have room to consider one more (possibly 6-win) team!

[Walkon79]

Robert Morris @ Lehigh --|
at |---|
Delaware (1) --| |
|---|
New Hampshire --| | |
at |---| |
Northern Iowa --| |
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Wofford --| | |
at |---| | |
William & Mary (5) --| | | |
|---| |
Jacksonville @ Bethune-Cookman --| | |
at |---| |
Jacksonville State (4) --| |
|
Stony Brook @ Massachusetts --| |
at |---| |
Eastern Washington (3) --| | |
|---| |
Southeast Missouri State --| | | |
at |---| | |
Stephen F. Austin --| | |
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Montana State --| |
at |---| |
North Dakota State --| | |
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S Carolina St @ GA Southern --| |
at |---|
Appalachian State (2) --|
The bracket, as I made it above, assumes that all favorites win this weekend.

Auto-bids:
Delaware (CAA)
Appalachian State (Southern)
Jacksonville State (Ohio Valley)
Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
Montana State (Sky)
Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley)
Bethune-Cookman (MEAC)
Robert Morris (Northeast)
Lehigh (Patriot)
Stony Brook (Big South)

At-Large:
Eastern Washington (Sky)
William & Mary (CAA)
New Hampshire (CAA)
Wofford (Southern)
SE Missouri St (Ohio Valley)
North Dakota State (Missouri Valley)
Massachusetts (CAA)
Georgia Southern (Southern)
South Carolina St (MEAC)
Jacksonville (Pioneer)

Bubble teams ("need" win next week):
Montana
New Hampshire
Villanova
Richmond
Chattanooga
Massachuetts
Western Illinois
Georgia Southern
^ If five out of these eight teams win this week, Jacksonville then South Carolina State are knocked out of bracket. If more than five win, I'm predicting those teams in playoffs in order listed (GA Southern with least precedence). If less than three of these eight teams win, could we see a year in which the "7-counting-D1-wins" guideline is ignored? Teams like a 7-4 McNeese State, 6-5 James Madison, 7-4 Weber State, or any of teams listed above even after losing, could be considered?

As for the bracket above, would you guys switch J'ville/B-C and GASouthern/SC State for competitive purposes or leave as is for geographical/cost purposes?

If Montana State wins the Sky, no way they have to travel to NDSU or anywhere for that matter, that early.

[emilimo701]

If Montana State wins the Sky, no way they have to travel to NDSU or anywhere for that matter, that early.

So you're saying Montana State would outbid North Dakota State? I could see it going either way. Montana State could very well host that game if it happened, but I think saying "no way" is a little extreme.

[FargoBison]

So you're saying Montana State would outbid North Dakota State? I could see it going either way. Montana State could very well host that game if it happened, but I think saying "no way" is a little extreme.

I think he is saying MSU might get a seed....

[Walkon79]

So you're saying Montana State would outbid North Dakota State? I could see it going either way. Montana State could very well host that game if it happened, but I think saying "no way" is a little extreme.

If the Cats win the Sky I think it's likely we'll be a seed.

[Walkon79]

Sorry Fargobison. Beat me too it.

[emilimo701]

If Montana State wins the Sky, no way they have to travel to NDSU or anywhere for that matter, that early.

If you're also saying that MSU would get a seed... well I see it right now as a three-horse race for that last seed. If William & Mary and SFA win as well, I'd say their odds of getting a seed are as follows:

Stephen F. Austin: 42%
William & Mary: 38%
Montana State: 34%

You'll notice that the numbers don't add up to 100. Attribute that to 13 percentage points to the chance of JSU being snubbed, and 1 percentage point to EWU getting upset. 8)

Those numbers are still too close to call though, so decided to seed William & Mary because I'm an iconoclast. Oh, and, yeah... a CAA homer. :)

[emilimo701]

I think he is saying MSU might get a seed....

yup. i caught this; see above post ^

[Aho_Old_Guy]

If you're also saying that MSU would get a seed... well I see it right now as a three-horse race for that last seed. If William & Mary and SFA win as well, I'd say their odds of getting a seed are as follows:

Stephen F. Austin: 42%
William & Mary: 38%
Montana State: 34%

You'll notice that the numbers don't add up to 100. Attribute that to 13 percentage points to the chance of JSU being snubbed, and 1 percentage point to EWU getting upset. 8)

Those numbers are still too close to call though, so decided to seed William & Mary because I'm an iconoclast. Oh, and, yeah... a CAA homer. :)

W&M have a top 5 SoS ... SFA is around #50 ... MSU close to #100

So, I wouldn't say you are a homer --- just a lot smarter than you thought you were :D

[Walkon79]

So you're saying Montana State would outbid North Dakota State? I could see it going either way. Montana State could very well host that game if it happened, but I think saying "no way" is a little extreme.

We would outbid many of the teams you have hosting the second round. So If the bid process factors into seeding, do you think they would put NDSU and MSU together? Both would surely sell out for a playoff game.

[caribbeanhen]

That has to be one of the DUMBEST thing I've ever read

but yet you avoided any attempt to answer the question

[emilimo701]

We would outbid many of the teams you have hosting the second round. So If the bid process factors into seeding, do you think they would put NDSU and MSU together? Both would surely sell out for a playoff game.

You actually are right that given my bracket, MSU can still host a home game without playing with the regional matchups.....

If there were no other logical geographical choices barring it, then I assume that, yes, that would come into play, all other things being equal. And I do consider this. However, Northern Iowa is also one of those high-bid, sellout schools and I was choosing between three such schools for two games because I sent SE Missouri State to Nacogdoches, TX (due to geography) not even realizing that Cedar Falls, IA would be an even shorter trip. Home game in Bozeman, coming right up!

[emilimo701]

Robert Morris @ Lehigh --|
at |---|
Delaware (1) --| |
|---|
New Hampshire --| | |
at |---| |
North Dakota State --| |
|---|
Wofford --| | |
at |---| | |
William & Mary (5) --| | | |
|---| |
Jacksonville @ Bethune-Cookman --| | |
at |---| |
Jacksonville State (4) --| |
|
Stony Brook @ Massachusetts --| |
at |---| |
Eastern Washington (3) --| | |
|---| |
Stephen F. Austin --| | | |
at |---| | |
Montana State --| | |
|---|
Southeast Missouri State --| |
at |---| |
Northern Iowa --| | |
|---|
S Carolina St @ GA Southern --| |
at |---|
Appalachian State (2) --|


Bubble teams (NEED win next week) in order of current GPI:
8) New Hampshire
11) Villanova
12) Montana
14) Massachusetts
16) Chattanooga
18) Richmond
20) Georgia Southern
21) Western Illinois
^ If five out of these eight teams win this week, Jacksonville then South Carolina State are knocked out of bracket. If more than five win, the committee will have some tough decisions to make.. If less than three of these eight teams win, could we see a year in which the "7-counting-D1-wins" guideline is ignored? We'll see.

[emilimo701]

W&M have a top 5 SoS ... SFA is around #50 ... MSU close to #100

So, I wouldn't say you are a homer --- just a lot smarter than you thought you were :D

;)

[Walkon79]

Robert Morris @ Lehigh --|
at |---|
Delaware (1) --| |
|---|
New Hampshire --| | |
at |---| |
North Dakota State --| |
|---|
Wofford --| | |
at |---| | |
William & Mary (5) --| | | |
|---| |
Jacksonville @ Bethune-Cookman --| | |
at |---| |
Jacksonville State (4) --| |
|
Stony Brook @ Massachusetts --| |
at |---| |
Eastern Washington (3) --| | |
|---| |
Stephen F. Austin --| | | |
at |---| | |
Montana State --| | |
|---|
Southeast Missouri State --| |
at |---| |
Northern Iowa --| | |
|---|
S Carolina St @ GA Southern --| |
at |---|
Appalachian State (2) --|


Bubble teams (NEED win next week) in order of current GPI:
8) New Hampshire
11) Villanova
12) Montana
14) Massachusetts
16) Chattanooga
18) Richmond
20) Georgia Southern
21) Western Illinois
^ If five out of these eight teams win this week, Jacksonville then South Carolina State are knocked out of bracket. If more than five win, the committee will have some tough decisions to make.. If less than three of these eight teams win, could we see a year in which the "7-counting-D1-wins" guideline is ignored? We'll see.

That's Better!!