November 20th 2010: Judgment Day in the CAA

[seattlespider]

http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/8183/standingsj.jpg

What an exciting week it's going to be!

http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/663/schedule2.jpg

Amazingly, there are six teams that are alive in the playoffs, and it's possible that we could have a situation where six teams have 7 or more wins. Listed in order of likelihood of winning.

New Hampshire obviously has the easiest road, with a game at home vs. Towson. If they lose, they don't deserve to get in the playoffs.

UMass travels to an improved Rhode Island. URI's QB is a load, and this game isn't the cakewalk one would have thought at the beginning of the season. URI I'm sure would love to spoil UMass' playoff hopes. I doubt UMass will take URI lightly, given their performance the last two weeks.

The Oldest Rivalry in the South has William and Mary hosting Richmond. Even if a playoff berth weren't on the line, this would be a bruising battle. W&M is coming off a road loss to JMU; I think they're in regardless of what happens against UR, but they certainly don't want to take any chances. UR will have to put a MUCH better offensive performance if they want to have any chance here.

An imploding Villanova travels to Delaware, and shockingly needs to win to qualify. Delaware is clearly in, but would love to crush 'Nova dreams of a repeat of last year.

Thoughts? If six teams end up with 7+ wins, do they all qualify?

[Sam Minuteman]

A lot will depend of what happens in other conferences I am sure but the CAA certainly has proven it's strength out of conference and as usual beaten each other up in conference. I just hope that CAA vs. CAA games can be avoided as long as possible as up and down almost the entire conference has proven they can play with anyone at any level on Any Given Saturday.....

Looking forward to seeing what the computers say after this week http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm

[seattlespider]

These things tend to work themselves out more often than not (with teams choking in the last game of the season), but you're right. In particular, the Big Sky is in a similar place with multiple teams on the brink.

[WrenFGun]

Every 7-4 team should be in, though as long as UNH wins, I think they're almost a lock considering they have wins over all other teams that could finish 7-4 with the exception of W&M.

I think the most likely scenario is that UNH and UMass get in beating Towson at home and URI on the road (though that's no easy game) and both UR and 'Nova miss the playoffs. 'Nova's best hope is, IMO, that UD doesn't value the game terribly highly, but if they do, IMO, they should win. Nova's defense isn't what it used to be. Richmond's run here has been unbelievable but can they really make it another week against W&M on the road? If they do they're certainly deserving.

In the end, if you get to 7 DI wins in the CAA you absolutely, 100%, no doubt deserve a bid.

[seattlespider]

Tend to agree if you're 7-4 in the CAA, you should be in. Only issue is if there are enough slots available.

[NHwildEcat]

This will be an exciting week leading up to the final weekend. A UNH win and they are definitely in...seeing as how they have beaten everyone else who is currently tied with them. W&M and Delaware are locks IMO.

[jmufan999]

that W&M/UR game is going to be INTENSE. lots of intense games, really.

[aceinthehole]

7-4 from the CAA and you're in, period.

The real big problems are for UMass and 'Nova. They need the win to get in and I'm not sure either one gets it done.

I think UNH, W&M, and UD all win so they're in. Although a 6-5 UMass or 'Nova will be better than some teams in the playoffs, the committe just can't get them a at-large with 5 losses.

[WestCoastAggie]

Thoughts? If six teams end up with 7+ wins, do they all qualify?

If all 6 teams are at 7-4, Richmond may be on the outside but then again, I have no freakin clue.

[TheBisonator]

Needed Richmond and UNH to lose for NDSU's at-large hopes, did not get it. I watched the UNH/Nova game on DirecTV here in Mpls. Nova had a bunch of chances, but did not capitalize. At least we won, but we're still gonna have to win next week. The CAA is TOUGH.

[soccerguy315]

funny that there's a chance for W&M to beat Richmond and get a seed, or lose to Richmond and be sitting at home for the playoffs.

edit: not saying a seed is guaranteed if we win, or if no playoffs is the outcome if we lose... just that both are possible.

[bluehenbillk]

The CAA isn't getting 6. 4 sounds good, 5 is possible. UR & VU would have to pull off some big road upsets next week.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

If all 6 teams are at 7-4, Richmond may be on the outside but then again, I have no freakin clue.

For Richmond to go 7-4 they will have to beat W&M, that will put W&M at 7-4 with losses to UMass, Richmond, and UNH, the other potential 7-4 teams, so if anyone will be on the outside, it will be W&M in that situation. Tribe fans need to be rooting hard for UD to knock 'Nova out of playoff contention next week or else a W&M loss could lead to no playoffs.

[soccerguy315]

For Richmond to go 7-4 they will have to beat W&M, that will put W&M at 7-4 with losses to UMass, Richmond, and UNH, the other potential 7-4 teams, so if anyone will be on the outside, it will be W&M in that situation. Tribe fans need to be rooting hard for UD to knock 'Nova out of playoff contention next week or else a W&M loss could lead to no playoffs.

Tribe beat UNH, but yes, a W&M loss is next week means a first round game at best, and at worst no playoffs.

[TwoFeathers]

http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/8183/standingsj.jpg

What an exciting week it's going to be!

http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/663/schedule2.jpg

Amazingly, there are six teams that are alive in the playoffs, and it's possible that we could have a situation where six teams have 7 or more wins. Listed in order of likelihood of winning.

New Hampshire obviously has the easiest road, with a game at home vs. Towson. If they lose, they don't deserve to get in the playoffs.

UMass travels to an improved Rhode Island. URI's QB is a load, and this game isn't the cakewalk one would have thought at the beginning of the season. URI I'm sure would love to spoil UMass' playoff hopes. I doubt UMass will take URI lightly, given their performance the last two weeks.

The Oldest Rivalry in the South has William and Mary hosting Richmond. Even if a playoff berth weren't on the line, this would be a bruising battle. W&M is coming off a road loss to JMU; I think they're in regardless of what happens against UR, but they certainly don't want to take any chances. UR will have to put a MUCH better offensive performance if they want to have any chance here.

An imploding Villanova travels to Delaware, and shockingly needs to win to qualify. Delaware is clearly in, but would love to crush 'Nova dreams of a repeat of last year.

Thoughts? If six teams end up with 7+ wins, do they all qualify?

Go Villanova!! ;)

[Spiderbone]

Its win and you are in for Nova, Richmond, W&M, UMASS and UNH

IF W&M loses could be out (but that would be pretty harsh to exclude them after having the #1 ranking just 10 days earlier), Richmond, UNH, UMASS, NOVA definitely out if they lose

UD is in regardless....

so I say FIVE at most of UNH, NOVA, UD, Richmond, W&M and Umass...we know UD is in so four of the remaining five will get in....and I think it may just come down to who wins in the last week, with the UR/W&M game having the biggest implications of all of the games.

It is going to be tough for NOVA to win in Delaware...NOVA out, UD in

UNH should beat Towson....UNH in

Umass is going to get a challenge by URI (particularly if UMASS plays the way Richmond did against URI today)---call it a toss-up..UMASS maybe

W&M/Richmond game you can throw all the records out the window...UR beat JMU and UMASS (W&M lost to JMU and UMASS) W&M beat UNH, NOVA and Delaware (UR lost to those three)...depends who is trending down and who is trending up. After today W&M not looking its best...The Spiders were abysmal on offense today with 56 minutes of gut-wrenching, stick multiple needles in my eye while waterboarding me (URI had 5 interceptions I think, two fumbles, two blocked field goals, two blocked XP's)
The last 4 minutes however the Spiders found some mojo somewhere scored two touchdowns to win (one passing 77 yards and one after a 50+ run in the last 2 minutes). On the other hand the Spiders defense was mighty good and about the best I have seen them this year.

Prediction...damned if I know, but I will be there...the Spiders have won the past two games by a total of 4 points.

As such I think that UD, UNH are locks with W&M (probably in) and UMass and UR in if they win and out if they don't...could be 3, 4 or 5 teams from the CAA, I don't think 6 is going to fly.

1-IF UD, UNH, WM win and UMASS, UR and NOVA lose....only THREE in
2-IF UD, UNH, WM, UMASS win and UR and NOVA lose....FOUR in
3-IF UD, UNH, UR win and UMASS and NOVA lose....FOUR in
4-IF UD, UNH, UR, UMASS win and NOVA lose....Five in
5-IF UD, UNH, UR, UMASS win and NOVA lose but the committee only wants four CAA teams total I think UR gets in versus head to head over UMASS
6-IF they all WIN except UD then somebody is going to get screwed IMHO and it will be either UR or UMASS getting bent over the barrel with the possible stipulation as per above (5).
I think Villanova gets in in this scenario over beating the assumed #1 team at home and the fact that they are the defending national champs.

[soccerguy315]

1-IF UD, UNH, WM win and UMASS, UR and NOVA lose....only THREE in
2-IF UD, UNH, WM, UMASS win and UR and NOVA lose....FOUR in
3-IF UD, UNH, WM, UR win and UMASS and NOVA lose....FOUR in
4-IF UD, UNH, WM, UR, UMASS win and NOVA lose....Five in
5-IF UD, UNH, WM, UR, UMASS win and NOVA lose but the committee only wants four CAA teams total I think UR gets in versus head to head over UMASS
6-IF they all WIN except UD then somebody is going to get screwed IMHO and it will be either UR or UMASS getting bent over the barrel with the possible stipulation as per above (5).
I think Villanova gets in in this scenario over beating the assumed #1 team at home and the fact that they are the defending national champs.

W&M and UR cannot both win, as I'm sure you know.

It is possible for W&M to find themselves on the outside looking in if Villanova beats Delaware and all these teams finish at 7-4.

[umassfan]

If W&M lose to Richmond they will have 2 losses to the CAA bubble teams. UMass would have beat them as well as Richmond. They also would have a loss to either 6-5 or 5-6 JMU.

[seattlespider]

If W&M lose to Richmond they will have 2 losses to the CAA bubble teams. UMass would have beat them as well as Richmond. They also would have a loss to either 6-5 or 5-6 JMU.

W&M really did themselves no favors with that loss to JMU. Really wish they would have taken care of business.

[Wildcat80]

Gotta hope that UD & UR win......leaving mary&bill and Talley home for the holidays.

[MacThor]

16 possible scenarios:
UNH, UD, URI, W&M: All four home teams winning means 3 CAA teams in the field. Delaware a top 2 seed, W&M (2nd round game), UNH in and possibly a bye.
UNH, UD, URI, UR: UD seed, UNH, UR, W&M in with a 3-way second place tie.
UNH, UD, UMass, W&M: UD seed, W&M 2nd round, UNH & UMass in, 3-way 2nd place tie.
UNH, UD, UMass, UR: UD seed, 4-way tie for 2nd. UNH 2-1, UR 2-1, UMass & W&M 1-2. Dicey but I think all 5 get in.
UNH, VU, URI, W&M: W&M AQ (maybe seed), UD, UNH, VU in.
UNH, VU, URI, UR: UD AQ (maybe seed), 4-way tie for second. UNH and W&M 2-1, UR & VU 1-2. Again, dicey but I think all 5 get in. There is recency bias and it would be hard to send W&M over UR who beat them less than 24 hours earlier (and went 2-0 in the VA rivalry games while W&M went 0-2)
UNH, VU, UMass, W&M: W&M AQ, UD in, 3-way tie for third. UNH swept the other two, so they are in. UMass & VU probably get in for 5.
UNH, VU, UMass, UR: The nuclear scenario. UD AQ and bye, perhaps seed. 5-way tie for 2nd. UNH 3-1, UR 2-2, W&M 2-2, VU 1-2, UMass 1-2. I have no idea...all six get in? I wouldn't want to be the teams that lost two of their past three. Also could make the case to leave out UMass, as their only win over other CAA contenders came all the way back in week 1.
Towson, UD, URI, W&M: The nuclear winter scenario. You go all the way from possibly 6 CAA teams to only 2? UD is a top two seed and W&M gets a bye. 4 6-5 teams, including the defending national champions, are left to wonder "what if" and ponder the departures of Northeastern and Hofstra.
Towson, UD, URI, UR: UD seed, UR & W&M are in.
Towson, UD, UMass, W&M: UD seed, UMass & W&M in.
Towson, UD, UMass, UR: UD seed, 3-way tie for 2nd. UR 2-0, UMass 1-1, W&M 0-2. I still think they all 4 get in but this would be a scenario that might make W&M play in round 1.
Towson, VU, URI, W&M: W&M AQ and bye, UD, VU in.
Towson, VU, URI, UR: UD AQ, all three tied for second (UR, W&M, VU) get in.
Towson, VU, UMass, W&M: W&M AQ, UD, VU, UMass are in.
Towson, VU, UMass, UR: UD AQ, 4 way tie for 2nd. UR 2-1, VU 1-1, UMass 1-1, W&M 1-2. I wouldn't want to be W&M here, but I think all 5 get in.

Bottom line: Anywhere from 2 to 6 teams could get in. W&M should probably root for Rhode Island, as UMass getting into multi-way tiebreakers with them hurts. UR is playing ugly ball right now, but in all 8 scenarios that they win, I think they get in.
Interesting advantage (?) to the 3:30 W&M-Richmond start time. They will know a lot about their possibilities already. If Delaware wins, W&M knows it can't get the AQ, yet it doesn't have VU in its tiebreakers. (In fact, the VU win looks less impressive).