Playoff Overview - 3 Weeks To Go

[Go Apps]

Here are a few clarifications for the playoff field of 20: The Ivy League does not participate in the playoffs- The SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game. Teams ineligible: ???. A team must also reach 7 D1 wins to be eligible for an at large berth most likely. – ALSO there are teams with still a chance of winning their Autobid but I have not listed due to upcoming schedule and belief that they will lose but will add back in coming weeks as the potential field shrinks.

Below, are prospects of FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the playoffs, as determined by Me. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The adds of AQ means they received the Autobid or IN means I believe they have already made the field,regardless of how they finish. The rank below is based on being in the playoffs.

1. Appalachian State (8-0, 6-0 Southern)
The Games: at GSU, Wofford, at Florida

Outlook: IN The Mountaineers have played well and are holding on to the Top spot overall, but the next 3 weeks provide no rest – they must win keep winning – regardless they are in the playoffs. Win the next two and get a top two seed.

2. Jacksonville State (8-0, OVC)
The Games: at EKU, SEMO St, at Tenn Tech

Outlook: What a year for Jax State, the wins just keep coming and they have secured a playoff berth IMO – but a showdown in two weeks will determine the autobid – a loss will send this team out of the top 4 seed discussion.

3. Villanova (6-2, 4-1 CAA)
The Games: at R. Island, N. Hamp, at Delaware

Outlook: A rough stretch ahead for Villanova but I am betting they win out – but in the CAA you never know.

4. Bethune Cookman (8-0. 5-0 MEAC)
The Games: at Hampton, Howard, at Fla. A&M

Outlook: Blowing through the competition and I see no stopping at this point the only question is will they receive a Top 5 seed?

5. William & Mary (6-2, 4-1 CAA)
The Games: at N. Hamp, at JMU, Richmond

Outlook: Every team in the CAA cannot rest now a slate of games ahead will prove difficult and will determine just how many are in the playoffs

6. Wofford (7-1, 5-0 Southern)
The Games: at Samford, at ASU, UTC

Outlook: How did everyone miss this – the Terriers appear to be the best team in the SoCon and in two weeks that will be determined on the field.

7. Delaware (7-1, 4-1 CAA)
The Games: Towson, at UMass, Villanova

Outlook: I see that Delaware looks to lock up a playoff berth with a win this week – the last two weeks will prove interesting.

8. SF Austin (6-2, 3-1 Southland)
The Games: at Nichols St, SE Louis, NWstern St.

Outlook: Looks as if the remaining schedule favors the Lumberjacks as they cannot afford to lose another.

9. Liberty (6-2, 3-0 Big South)
The Games: Gardner Webb, at Coastal Car., Stony Brook

Outlook: The flames just need to win out and they will play most likely in Round 1.

10. SE MO State (7-1, 6-0 OVC)
The Games: SW Baptist, at Jax St.

Outlook: Another surprise this year and they have a real shot of winning the Autobid in two weeks

11. Montana State (7-2, 5-1 Big Sky)
The Games: Weber St., at Montana

Outlook: The Bobcats once again control their destiny but could lose the last two if not careful – win and you are in.

12. E. Washington (7-3, 6-2 Big Sky)
The Games: S. Utah, Idaho State

Outlook: EW needs to win out to stay in the discussion and conference race.

13. Lehigh (6-2, 2-0 Patriot)
The Games: at Holy Cross, at Georgetown, at Layfayette

Outlook: Lehigh seems to be the lone team alive from the Patriot and if they win out will most likely play in round 1.

14. Robert Morris (7-1, 6-0 NEC)
The Games: Cent Conn St, at Bryant

Outlook: Simple beat CCSt and you are in.

15. Central Conn State (6-2, 5-0 NEC)
The Games: at Robert Morris, at Monmouth, St Francis

Outlook: Simple beat Robert Morris and you are in.

16. Cal Poly (6-3, 1-1 Great West)
The Games: at S. Dakota, UC Davis

Outlook: A team that is looking like it needs help any lose will dash their playoff hopes.

17. South Carolina State (6-2. 4-1 MEAC)
The Games: Howard, at Morgan State, at NC A&T

Outlook: A top 10 team most of the year I think SCST is still in control of a playoff berth but they have to win out – 3 loses will make it difficult.

18. Northern Iowa (5-3, 4-1 MVC)
The Games: at Indiana St, MO St, at W. Illinois

Outlook: A wild race that UNI still can control – will they?

19. New Hampshire (5-3, 3-2 CAA)
The Games: W&M, at Villanova, Towson

Outlook: A team playing well a schedule not in their favor – something’s gotta give!

20. Montana (6-3, 5-2 Big Sky)
The Games: North Dakota, at Montana State

Outlook: The Grizzles have not been playing norm this year and if not careful could put themselves out of playoff contention with another loss.

21. Massachussets (5-3, 3-2 CAA)
The Games: Maine, at Delaware, R. Island

Outlook: I like the chances of Mass but they need to win all three.

22. Ga Southern (4-4, 2-3 Southern)
The Games: ASU, at WCU, at Furman

Outlook: Yes GSU can beat ASU this weekend and if they do I see them winning out and they will make the playoffs – the committee loves their crowds!

23. Furman (4-4, 2-3 Southern)
The Games: WCU, at Elon, GSU

Outlook: Still in the mix if they can win out!

24. Chattanooga (5-3, 4-2 Southern)
The Games: at Auburn, Samford, at Wofford

Outlook: The best 3 loss team in the country – can they get in with 4 losses – oh and they have to win the last two.

25. Western Illinois (6-3, 4-2 MVC)
The Games: at S. Illinois, UNI

Outlook: Will need to win out and I believe they are in.

26. Weber State (5-3, 4-2 Big Sky)
The Games: at Mont State, at N. Arizona, at Texas Tech

Outlook: Another team that will need to win the next two a sure loss to TT will keep them on the edge.

27. S. Utah (5-4, 4-0 Great West)
The Games: Dixie St., at E. Washington

Outlook: A lot of press for S. Utah all of a sudden – a win over EWU will be helpful but how does their schedule look to the committee.

28. Jacksonville (8-1, 6-0 Pioneer)
The Games: at Butler, Campbell

Outlook: The game at ASU was the real test – one they lost but they are putting up impressive numbers – to be in the discussion they need the CAA to start eliminating each other.

29. Indiana State (5-3, 3-2 MVC)
The Games: UNI, at Young St, at S. Illinois

Outlook: Another team that controls their own destiny.

30. Richmond (4-4, 2-3 CAA)
The Games: JMU, R. Island, at W&M

Outlook: The Spiders are still alive and if they run the table will grab a playoff spot

31. Central Arkansas (5-3, 2-2 Southland)
The Games: at Texas St, Sam Houston St., McNeese St.

Outlook: What to say I think they lose this weekend but wins in the last 3 would impress the committee

32. James Madison (4-4, 1-4 CAA)
The Games: at Richmond, at W&M, at Maine

Outlook: If they win out I believe they are in and I think they have a chance – however the postseason could end this Saturday.

33. Florida A&M (5-3. 4-1 MEAC)
The Games: at NC A&T, Hampton, Bethune Cookman

Outlook: Still alive but how many bids will this conference get? I say two….

34. Hampton (5-3. 4-1 MEAC)
The Games: Bethune Cookman, at Fla A&M, at Morgan St.

Outlook: See above

35. Holy Cross (4-4, 1-1 Patriot)
The Games: Lehigh, at Layfayette, Bucknell

Outlook: The only real threat to winning the regular season title.

36. McNeese State (4-4, 3-1 Southland)
The Games: at Sam Houston St, Texas St, at Central Arkansas

Outlook: Fading fast….

37. Missouri State (4-4, 3-2 MVC)
The Games: at S. Dakota, at UNI, N. Dakota St

Outlook: Still on the radar but for how long

38. Stony Brook (4-4, 3-0 Big South)
The Games: Presbyterian, Gardner Webb, at Liberty

Outlook: Can win the Big South – can they beat Liberty!

39. Samford (4-4, 2-3 Southern)
The Games: Wofford, at UTC, Citadel

Outlook: Samford is still alive but must win out – those thoughts may end this weekend

40. Dayton (8-1, 6-0 Pioneer)
The Games: Drake, at Marist

Outlook: Still here for another week…

Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field and possible match-ups, based on expectations for the remaining games this season.

Automatic Bids: Patriot: Lehigh, A10: Villanova, Big Sky: Montana State, Southland: SFA, Southern: Wofford, Gateway: N.Iowa., MEAC: Bethune Cookman, OVC: Jacksonville State: Big South: Liberty :NEC: Robert Morris

At-large: ASU, SEMOSt, N. Hamp, W&M, Delaware, MASS, E.Wash, Cal Poly, SCSt, Montana

Seeds: Villanova, W&M, Bethune Cookman, Jax State , Wofford
Last In: Cal Poly, MASS, N. Hampshire
Last Out: UTC, W. Illinois, Jacksonville

Bracket I:
Lehigh @ UMASS winner at No. 1 Jacksonville State
E. Washington @ ASU

Cal Poly @ Montana winner at No. 4 Bethune Cookman
Delaware @ No. 5 Wofford

Bracket II:
Robert Morris @ Liberty at No. 3 W&M
SFA @ Montana State

N. Hampshire @ SCST winner at No. 2 Villanova
SEMO St @ UNI

NOTES:
*Just feel like Wofford is playing better right now than ASU – but this will be determined on the field.
*The CAA and games out West will really define the remaining teams and final playoff spots.

[UAalum72]

Central Connecticut isn't just 'simple, beat RMU', they'll have to win at least one of their other two remaining games; @Monmouth is no lock

Would the committee set up TWO matchups that repeat regular-season games - Liberty/Robert Morris and Montana/Poly ?

Plus I don't see Bethune-Cookman as a 4 seed.

[asucrutch23]

Plus I don't see Bethune-Cookman as a 4 seed.

Edit: Nevermind, missed the projections at the bottom. Yeah, I don't see that either.

[Go Apps]

Not an exact science lot of teams still in contention and North Dakota State not on the radar this week - as for the Q's yes the committee will repeat regular season games based on location and I believe based on home crowds during week 1 - as for Bethune if they go undefeated I see them getting one of the top 5 seeds - if SCState would have gone undefeated with the same schedule you can bet they would garner a seed - and they have great attendance - however I think if both Jax St and Bethune get home seeds and others fall like ASU - look for them to carefully choose the round 3 pairings with a team like ASU on the belief they may lose - paving the way for a home game for another attendance grabber

This weeks game will really provide a much better prospective as I see about 7 of the teams listed above getting eliminated from the postseason discussion.

[Go Apps]

On CCSt I believe they will not lose the last two so that would give the auto

[Aho_Old_Guy]

You are working way too hard on this xlolx

CAA ...


















Everybody else.

xwhistlex

[HensRock]

Do you really think the committee would send CP to play AT Montana when they beat Montana during the regular season?
If I were CP and that happened, I'd be pissed!

Also, no way UD plays their first game anywhere but Delaware Stadium.

[Go Apps]

Yes I do think the committee would as I see Montana and CP as being the last two in and it boils down to attendance and that answers that - as for Delware based on my projections - the top 5 seeds get to play at home so with locales playing a role it just seemed like Delaware was left out the mix - so much can happen over the next 3 wks including Delaware being a top 2 seed perhaps

[LUHawker]

If Lehigh makes the field and so does Robert Morris, I believe round 1 will be RMU@Lehigh as it is a relatively short drive, with the winner getting set up for a game at Delaware or at Villanova.

[danefan]

If Lehigh makes the field and so does Robert Morris, I believe round 1 will be RMU@Lehigh as it is a relatively short drive, with the winner getting set up for a game at Delaware or at Villanova.

Agreed. Bus trips are king this year with 4 additional games for the NCAA to expense.

And I love that matchup for the NEC's first playoff game.

[Go Apps]

My belief is that once they get the first round teams they will do their best to find the closet combination of teams and generate enough money at the gate - that is why I think RM would not play Lehigh first round...

[danefan]

My belief is that once they get the first round teams they will do their best to find the closet combination of teams and generate enough money at the gate - that is why I think RM would not play Lehigh first round...

Its a question of whether they defer to expenses or revenue in setting up the matchups. History shows us they defer to expenses, which are controllable. The revenue (above the bid minimums) is speculative at best.

[McNeese75]

Interesting, You have SFA ranked above Montana State yet you predict they will travel to play the first game? If those two teams are matched, the Bobcats will be doing the traveling (if they both win out).

McNeese is fading fast but Missouri State is still on the radar? LOL, OK

Nice write up by the way. xnodx

PS I do not think the Cowboys will be in the playoffs unless SFA stumbles and the Pokes win out.

[IaaScribe]

Its a question of whether they defer to expenses or revenue in setting up the matchups. History shows us they defer to expenses, which are controllable. The revenue (above the bid minimums) is speculative at best.


His first round matchups actually create two within-400-miles bus trips. Lehigh is less than 300 miles from Amherst and Moon Township is about 350 miles away from Lynchburg. Otherwise, you'd have three fly trips in the first round. It kind of makes sense.

You could switch the matchups around and have Lehigh play RMU and Liberty play S.C. State, but that would leave a UNH-Mass rematch, which will not happen.

[aceinthehole]

Agreed. Bus trips are king this year with 4 additional games for the NCAA to expense.

And I love that matchup for the NEC's first playoff game.

I agree, so that makes 3 of us! :)

A RMU/Lehigh matchup makes the most sense because it is a bus ride. The winner would like face a seeded CAA team like 'Nova or Delaware.

Now if CCSU were to win the NEC AQ, I could see us also being sent to Lehigh (or another PL champ), or UMASS (if they make the field, by beating Maine and URI). In this case, the winner would have to play a non-CAA team - possibly App St. or Jax St.

I would not want to see any firts round remaches of this year's regular season - RMU/Liberty or CCSU/UNH - but clearly those are very possible due to the geography.

[danefan]

His first round matchups actually create two within-400-miles bus trips. Lehigh is less than 300 miles from Amherst and Moon Township is about 350 miles away from Lynchburg. Otherwise, you'd have three fly trips in the first round. It kind of makes sense.

You could switch the matchups around and have Lehigh play RMU and Liberty play S.C. State, but that would leave a UNH-Mass rematch, which will not happen.

Yup you are right. I didn't realize Liberty/RMU was a bus trip. Just makes it actually - 392 miles according to the NCAA calculator. I take back my comments about the matchups. They appear solid.

[Gil Dobie]

Not an exact science lot of teams still in contention and North Dakota State not on the radar this week - This weeks game will really provide a much better prospective as I see about 7 of the teams listed above getting eliminated from the postseason discussion.

I noticed that. Indy St has to win all 3 to win the MVFC Autobid without 7 DI wins, that would mean UNI is 7-4 at best. Missouri St has to win all 3 for autobid and hope Indy St loses. WIU has to win and hope Missouri St loses. UNI wins the rest of the way, they are in. NDSU wins 3, they are 8-3.

[EdubAlum]

I've got my money on Montana State not winning out. could be wrong, but I see my school getting the Big Sky auto bid, and possibly a seed depending how things work themselves out

[SpeedkingATL]

Even if Samford wins out they would only have 6 FCS wins as of their 7 wins would have been against DII Newberry and I would expect there would be more deserving 7 win teams, especially depending on the CAA as there will likely be 1 or 2 CAA with 7 FCS victories.

[McNeese72]

36. McNeese State (4-4, 3-1 Southland)
The Games: at Sam Houston St, Texas St, at Central Arkansas

Outlook: Fading fast….


Yep, we are just fading, fading, fading away. Not even showing on radar.

[Stealth mode successfully implemented.]

Don't need to worry about us.

Doc

[Fear the Bird]

Yes I do think the committee would as I see Montana and CP as being the last two in and it boils down to attendance and that answers that - as for Delware based on my projections - the top 5 seeds get to play at home so with locales playing a role it just seemed like Delaware was left out the mix - so much can happen over the next 3 wks including Delaware being a top 2 seed perhaps

Yes top 5 seeds are guaranteed home games but every other first round matchup is based on bidding - I think I can count on one finger the number of teams in the country who might be able to outbid Delaware. If they play in the first round that is because they lost to both UMass and Villanova, which I guess you assume, but they will still play at home.

[R.A.]

Not an exact science lot of teams still in contention and North Dakota State not on the radar this week - as for the Q's yes the committee will repeat regular season games based on location and I believe based on home crowds during week 1 - as for Bethune if they go undefeated I see them getting one of the top 5 seeds - if SCState would have gone undefeated with the same schedule you can bet they would garner a seed - and they have great attendance - however I think if both Jax St and Bethune get home seeds and others fall like ASU - look for them to carefully choose the round 3 pairings with a team like ASU on the belief they may lose - paving the way for a home game for another attendance grabber

This weeks game will really provide a much better prospective as I see about 7 of the teams listed above getting eliminated from the postseason discussion.

South Carolina State's losses would be to a team that is undefeated, and to an ACC Georgia Tech squad... that's it.

[Go Apps]

Again using the same exact schedule I think SCst would get the seed

[TboneCat]

12. E. Washington (7-3, 6-2 Big Sky)
The Games: S. Utah, Idaho State

Outlook: EW needs to win out to stay in the discussion and conference race.

Eastern is 7-2(6-1) with their only conference loss coming @Montana State.

[Go Apps]

Sorry that has been updated for next week thx

[HensRock]

Yes I do think the committee would as I see Montana and CP as being the last two in and it boils down to attendance and that answers that - as for Delware based on my projections - the top 5 seeds get to play at home so with locales playing a role it just seemed like Delaware was left out the mix - so much can happen over the next 3 wks including Delaware being a top 2 seed perhaps

Of course Wofford would host UD if they were seeded and they decided to match UD with them. My point is they will not. They will find another game for Delaware to play which will give them a home game for at least one round. Your bracket probably assumes that UD looses to both UMass and Nova, which is your right to do so, But I think they would find an opponent like SFA or MSU to travel to UD in your scenario, much like you made EWU come to ASU.

I Also think they could find another opponent to go to Montana rather than a team that beat them already.

[danefan]

I completely missed this earlier, but talk of a team with a strength of schedule as weak as Bethune Cookman getting a seed is a little crazy to me.

I have a hard time seeing any way a team from the MEAC gets a seed this year.

And I really have no clue how the committee would even justify SCST getting an at-large this year. I have a hard time seeing it happening.

[aceinthehole]

South Carolina State's losses would be to a team that is undefeated, and to an ACC Georgia Tech squad... that's it.

Agreed, those are 2 "good losses," but I think it's the strenght of the 9 wins that may keep them out.

At that point isn't Jacksonville's 1 "good loss" and 10 weak wins better than what SCSU has?

[Appattk]

Yes top 5 seeds are guaranteed home games but every other first round matchup is based on bidding - I think I can count on one finger the number of teams in the country who might be able to outbid Delaware. If they play in the first round that is because they lost to both UMass and Villanova, which I guess you assume, but they will still play at home.

While I don't disagree with you... I have to point out what I've read in the NCAA 2010 Playoff Handbook...

1. The Top 5 teams will be seeded in order that the committee determines to be the top 5, with 1 being the best.

2. The NEXT 7 best teams will NOT HAVE a first round game and will be determined as the next 7 best teams in the country by the committee.

3. The next 8 teams will play in the first round and will be matched up as geographically feasible as possible.

4. First round matchups will then be matched up with the top 4 seeds as geographically feasible as possible.

5. The other four games will be matched up as geographically feasible as possible.

Of course I paraphrase.... Basically... as long as Delaware can outbid those teams around them (Lehigh, Robert Morris, Liberty, etc...) they'll be at home...

[TheBisonator]

Why is NDSU not on this list?? I'm not talking about the playoff predictions, but I'm talking about the post in general. NDSU is 5-3 and needs to lose two games to be eliminated from an at-large.

Also, SUU has already been eliminated from at-large consideration.

[WileECoyote06]

Agreed, those are 2 "good losses," but I think it's the strenght of the 9 wins that may keep them out.

At that point isn't Jacksonville's 1 "good loss" and 10 weak wins better than what SCSU has?

no because SCSU didn't get blown out. Shut out yes, blown out. . no. And a win over Hampton, FAMU, and Norfolk State trumps any other win Jacksonville can tout.

But I do hope that Jacksonville somehow miraculously garners an invite, but it won't be at the expense of SCSU.

[emilimo701]

Why is NDSU not on this list?? I'm not talking about the playoff predictions, but I'm talking about the post in general. NDSU is 5-3 and needs to lose two games to be eliminated from an at-large.

Also, SUU has already been eliminated from at-large consideration.

Yeah OP has not done full research... NDSU is right in the thick of things IMO(and many others')

Predicting B-C to get a seed is pretty bold...

As good as a team UNH is, predicting them to win otu in CAA is also bold. But it could definitely happen. And as rumor has it, < & D1 wins isn't the end-all-be-all

[Go Apps]

Why is NDSU not on this list?? I'm not talking about the playoff predictions, but I'm talking about the post in general. NDSU is 5-3 and needs to lose two games to be eliminated from an at-large.

Also, SUU has already been eliminated from at-large consideration.

Again they will be their next week and S. Utah it not out yet - lot of factors coming into play...

[MacThor]

I completely missed this earlier, but talk of a team with a strength of schedule as weak as Bethune Cookman getting a seed is a little crazy to me.

I have a hard time seeing any way a team from the MEAC gets a seed this year.

And I really have no clue how the committee would even justify SCST getting an at-large this year. I have a hard time seeing it happening.

Hampton. 2005.

[danefan]

Hampton. 2005.

the landscape of FCS today is much different than it was in 2005, and particularly the MEAC is much different today.

[danefan]

no because SCSU didn't get blown out. Shut out yes, blown out. . no. And a win over Hampton, FAMU, and Norfolk State trumps any other win Jacksonville can tout.

But I do hope that Jacksonville somehow miraculously garners an invite, but it won't be at the expense of SCSU.

Uh....Jacksonville beat Old Dominion at ODU. The same ODU team that beat Hampton soundly at Hampton.

JU's win over ODU is arguably better than any of SCST's wins.

[Go Apps]

Just as a note this was a lot of information that I pulled together so I have not looked so closely at the schedules but will do so once the games have been completed this weekend - I think multiple teams will punch their ticket and many others will fall out of contention - once that occurs it will be easy to view the reamining teams and start comparing schedules, rankings, GPI's etc. - as far as the talk about the MEAC - they can bring plenty of $$$ to the table with home games so yes that does play into the discussion - not to mention the committee would like to see teams that cover all geographies if possible - another note is committee members - I am not aware who is on the committee but worth looking up as regardless of what you think there is a help me and I will help you mentality - so teams like Jacksonville and Cal Poly may not have great chances depending on the committee makeup as they normally represent the key conferences.

[danefan]

Just as a note this was a lot of information that I pulled together so I have not looked so closely at the schedules but will do so once the games have been completed this weekend - I think multiple teams will punch their ticket and many others will fall out of contention - once that occurs it will be easy to view the reamining teams and start comparing schedules, rankings, GPI's etc. - as far as the talk about the MEAC - they can bring plenty of $$$ to the table with home games so yes that does play into the discussion - not to mention the committee would like to see teams that cover all geographies if possible - another note is committee members - I am not aware who is on the committee but worth looking up as regardless of what you think there is a help me and I will help you mentality - so teams like Jacksonville and Cal Poly may not have great chances depending on the committee makeup as they normally represent the key conferences.


This year's committee:

Central

Mark Sandy - AD - EKU
Ron Strollo - AD - YSU
Tim Wabler - AD - Dayton

East
Jeff Bourne - AD - JMU
Craig Coleman - AD - Robert Morris
Bruche McCutcheon - AD - Lafayette

South
Jeff Barber - AD - Liberty
Wheeler Brown - AD - NC A&T
Charles Cobb - AD - App State

West
Richard Bernardi - AD - Nicholls State
Jim O'Day - AD - Montana

[superman7515]

Automatic Bids: Patriot: Lehigh, A10: Villanova, Big Sky: Montana State, Southland: SFA, Southern: Wofford, Gateway: N.Iowa., MEAC: Bethune Cookman, OVC: Jacksonville State: Big South: Liberty :NEC: Robert Morris

Sorry, I gave up on this as soon as Villanova won the A-10...

[Fear the Bird]

no because SCSU didn't get blown out. Shut out yes, blown out. . no. And a win over Hampton, FAMU, and Norfolk State trumps any other win Jacksonville can tout.

But I do hope that Jacksonville somehow miraculously garners an invite, but it won't be at the expense of SCSU.

Ha so getting ripped AT App St., the #1 team in the country is a terrible loss yet being shut out AT HOME by Bethune is acceptable???

[WileECoyote06]

Ha so getting ripped AT App St., the #1 team in the country is a terrible loss yet being shut out AT HOME by Bethune is acceptable???

The score was 14 - 0. Bethune-Cookman has continued since that win and remain to this point undefeated. If you're a top team, the games you lose should be relatively close. Anyone is going to judge a 31 point whipping. Especially when the team being compared barely lost to that team last year in a playoff environment.

I'll give the ODU/Hampton; ODU/Jacksonville; SCSU/Hampton argument as a 'results against common opponents' criteria a lot of credence; so good catch Danefan.

[danefan]

The score was 14 - 0. Bethune-Cookman has continued since that win and remain to this point undefeated. If you're a top team, the games you lose should be relatively close. Anyone is going to judge a 31 point whipping. Especially when the team being compared barely lost to that team last year in a playoff environment.

I'll give the ODU/Hampton; ODU/Jacksonville; SCSU/Hampton argument as a 'results against common opponents' criteria a lot of credence; so good catch Danefan.

Its not the best evidence of a team's strength, but its some. My point in all of this is SCST and Jacksonville have pretty much the same "net" resume. Some loses are worse then others and some wins are better on both sides. I don't think either gets in, but the reason I point it out is because there a lot of people that have somehow come to a conclusion that SCST is definitely in with an at-large, but Jacksonville has zero chance. Both views are extremes away from the reality of the situation - which is both are long-shots, but possible, IMO.

[Fear the Bird]

Its not the best evidence of a team's strength, but its some. My point in all of this is SCST and Jacksonville have pretty much the same "net" resume. Some loses are worse then others and some wins are better on both sides. I don't think either gets in, but the reason I point it out is because there a lot of people that have somehow come to a conclusion that SCST is definitely in with an at-large, but Jacksonville has zero chance. Both views are extremes away from the reality of the situation - which is both are long-shots, but possible, IMO.

Couldn't have stated the reality better myself...I'm not condoning either in but I agree that these people that think SC St is a lock for at-large but JU has zero shot are not being realistic

[JUDolphins]

It will be interesting to see what the committee does with JU/SC State - and a lot of that depends on the actual bubble itself. Every week, more and more teams that are on it are falling off - giving more and more credence to the JU bid as they have a 10-1 record in their sights with the nation's highest ranked offense.

[putter]

The year Montana is having will throw a monkey wrench in the decision process. That is if they win out

[putter]

Its happened before...money talks

[ejjones]

It will be interesting to see what the committee does with JU/SC State - and a lot of that depends on the actual bubble itself. Every week, more and more teams that are on it are falling off - giving more and more credence to the JU bid as they have a 10-1 record in their sights with the nation's highest ranked offense.

The Pioneer and MEAC conferences are mediocre as a whole; but Pioneer is probably even weaker than MEAC. JU got blown out by ASU. No way SCSU D gives up 40+ points to an FCS team.

Past performance: as much as past performance should not be used as decision making criterion for the playoffs - it will be used. Anyone who's made any significant business decision has used past performance to assist with the process. SCSU returns a squad that gave ASU a victory, more so than ASU won. And if (1) guy by the name of A. Edwards wasn't playing, the end result would have been much different. I said that to say, this...SCSU has a better chance at getting in, purely based on past performance.

Additionally, SCSU passes the "eye"xnodx test. That's why the human polls have them ranked higher than the computers. SCSU will be on ESPNU this coming Thursday...they will be playing a mediocre opponent, but it will be easily discernible that they're one of the 20 who "belong".

Analogy: UW at Oregon today: Oregon will annihilate UW today, but it will be easily to see that Oregon is good, although UW is BAD.