Professor Chaos
October 31st, 2010, 11:30 AM
I was bored this morning so I thought I'd give this a shot to try and make sense of how a 20 team playoff in a pretty weak field of bubble teams this year will make sense.
Big Sky
Should be in (2): Eastern Washington, Montana St
EWU: Wins against Montana and at Weber make the resume look pretty good for the Eagles. Only losses are resectable against FBS Nevada and at Montana St. They should be able to split their last two and still make it in.
MSU: Win against EWU helps them. However, yhey've looked very shaky lately and the Brawl of the Wild looms against a desperate Griz team. Montana St is in as of now but they're on shaky ground. The should be win against WasU would be very nice to have right now for the Cats.
On the bubble (2): Montana, Weber St
Montana: The Weber loss this week puts Montana behind the 8 ball. It's pretty simple from here on out. Win out and you're in or lose either of the last two and playoff streak will come to and end.
Weber St: Win over Montana vaults Weber into the playoff discussion. Loss at Sac St looks bad but they'll play themselves in or out the next two weeks at Montana St and Northern Arizona.
CAA
Should be in (3): Delaware, William and Mary, Villanova
Delaware: The Hens are pretty much locked into the playoffs. All Delware has to do is win 1 of their last 3 to punch their ticket but games at UMass and home against Nova will give them a solid shot to lock up a seed.
William and Mary: The UNC loss doesn't hurt them but doesn't help them either. The win against Delaware should prove huge and their game at New Hampshire this week gives them a chance to basically lock up a playoff spot. The last two weeks against JMU and Richmond may either be against either deperate teams or our out of contention teams who've packed it in.
Villanova: Their win this weeks puts them in solid position to get into the playoffs. A win against Rhode Island this week would likely lock them in but they have to take care of business the next two weeks as they're at Delaware to close the season and a 7-4 record without a signature win (JMU and Richmond aren't in that category anymore) may put them on the outside looking in.
On the Bubble (4): New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Richmond, James Madison
UNH: Huge win against UMass on Saturday puts UNH in the field if the playoffs started today but they've got a tough road ahead with W&M at home and at Nova the week after.
Massachusetts: Their playoff hopes went on life support after getting dominated by UNH. They've got a favorable schedule (by CAA standards) down the stretch but they'll have to beat Delaware at home in two weeks to have any shot.
Richmond: They'll have to win out to get in and even then it might be iffy. A win over JMU this coming week wouldn't have looked as good as everyone thought earlier in the year but they still have W&M to make an impression and get a signature win.
JMU: Putting them here strictly out of respect for their win at Virginia Tech. They'll need to win out which would include a win over W&M to have a shot.
MEAC
Should be in (1): Bethune-Cookman
Bethune-Cookman: The Wildcats have to be careful. Their win over SCSU will do well for them but both Florida A&M and Hampton only have one conference loss and are still left on the schedule so dropping either of those may lost the autobid for them and put them firmly on the bubble. Those teams also still play each other though so Bethune-Cookman has the inside track on the autobid at any rate.
On the Bubble (1): South Carolina St
SCSU: The 20 team playoff field and a weak bubble should work to SCSU's advantage. They're preseason position should be good enough to get them in at 9-2 even if they don't have a signature win (unless Hampton counts). Regardless, they have to win out to be in contention and hope that the normal in conference beatings happen in the power conferences.
Missouri Valley
Should be in (1): Northern Iowa
UNI: The Panthers have a tough stretch run as they face an undeated home team at Indiana St next week before hosting a Missouri St squad who may still have an outside shot at the autobid and ending on the road at Western Illinois. They can probably lose the last game against WIU and still be in decent shape for an at large but the weakness of the MVFC hurts as there's not a lot of real quality wins to be had in the conference.
On the bubble (2): Western Illinois, North Dakota St
WIU: This weeks win puts WIU in good shape but they have a tough stretch run at SIU and hosting UNI to close out the season. Their road win at NDSU will help them should those two teams be compared for one of the last at large spots. They still control their own destiny however as winning out will give them the autobid.
NDSU: The Bison basically have to win out at this point with home games against SIU and SDSU (both of whom were weakened this past week) and on the road at Missouri St. The Kansas win gives them a signature victory but unless they can post a winning conference record they'll likely be too far down the conference pecking order to get a bid but they aren't entirely out of the question at 7-4.
OVC
Should be in (1): Jacksonville St
Jax St: Three good OOC wins against Ole Miss, Chatty, and GSU make the Gamecocks a virtual lock. A loss agains SEMO in a couple weeks may make things interesting but I can hardly see any scenario where they're left out.
On the bubble (1): Southeast Missouri St
SEMO: The SIU win isn't quite as substantial as it was earlier in the season but they still have Jax St left to nab the autobid. It would be tough to leave them out at 8-2 even if they do lose that one but they'll put themselves at the mercy of other bubble teams if they do.
SOCON
Should be in (2): Appalachian St, Wofford
ASU: Closest thing to a lock as there is at this point. They should lock up the top seed with wins at GSU and at home against Wofford but could convievably lose all 3 of their last games and still be in.
Wofford: They have a tough slate to finish off with games at ASU and at home against Chatty but unless they are thoroughly embarrassed in those last two they should be in.
On the bubble (1): Chattanooga
Chattanooga: The home loss against Elon on Saturday was the biggest loss for a bubble team in the country last week. They'll need to beat Wofford on the road to close the season and get a lot of help to get in (provided they don't pull the upset of the century against Auburn).
Others
Should be in (1): Stephen F Austin
SFA: Put the clamps on themselves with their implosion at home against Texas St last week but they should win the next two to put them in fine shape. A loss in the season finale against Northwestern St could lose the SLC autobid and may put SFA on the bubble but their win at UNI should help them immensely for at large consideration.
On the bubble (4): Cal Poly, Liberty, Robert Morris, Dayton.
Cal Poly: This might be the toughest team to judge. The Montana win could look great or just good by the end of the year. They'll have to win at South Dakota this week to have any shot but even an 8-3 Cal Poly squad would be on the bubble for an at large.
Liberty: Liberty looks to be on track for the Big South autobid but they look to have a very tough time if they lose the de facto conference championship to Stony Brook in 3 weeks. JMU tanking will hurt them as they'll need something other than the Ball St win to hang their hat on should they finish 2nd in the conference at 8-3.
Robert Morris: Should RMU lose the NEC autobid this weekend against CCU they will have a win against Liberty and a dominating win against Albany to hang their hat on but they'd need a lot a mayhem in the power conferences to have a shot at an at large.
Dayton: I put Dayton here instead of Jacksonville (since they don't play each other) by virtue of the fact that only one Pioneer team will even get consideration and Dayton has a win over Robert Morris OOC to give it a semi-signature win. If RMU goes 10-1 and gets the NEC autobid and there's mayhem in the power conferences Dayton may have an outside shot at an at large.
So that's 11 teams that should be in with the Big South, NEC, and Patriot autobids making it 14 teams that should be in as of now. That leaves 15 teams on the bubble for 6 spots (althouth Liberty and RMU could soften the bubble with autobids). Some big games to watch out for this weekend:
Weber St @ Montana St
William and Mary @ New Hampshire
Richmond @ JMU (definitely a must win for both to maintain any playoff hopes)
Northern Iowa @ Indiana St
Southern Illinois @ North Dakota St
Cal Poly @ South Dakota
Central Connecticut @ Robert Morris
Discuss away...
Big Sky
Should be in (2): Eastern Washington, Montana St
EWU: Wins against Montana and at Weber make the resume look pretty good for the Eagles. Only losses are resectable against FBS Nevada and at Montana St. They should be able to split their last two and still make it in.
MSU: Win against EWU helps them. However, yhey've looked very shaky lately and the Brawl of the Wild looms against a desperate Griz team. Montana St is in as of now but they're on shaky ground. The should be win against WasU would be very nice to have right now for the Cats.
On the bubble (2): Montana, Weber St
Montana: The Weber loss this week puts Montana behind the 8 ball. It's pretty simple from here on out. Win out and you're in or lose either of the last two and playoff streak will come to and end.
Weber St: Win over Montana vaults Weber into the playoff discussion. Loss at Sac St looks bad but they'll play themselves in or out the next two weeks at Montana St and Northern Arizona.
CAA
Should be in (3): Delaware, William and Mary, Villanova
Delaware: The Hens are pretty much locked into the playoffs. All Delware has to do is win 1 of their last 3 to punch their ticket but games at UMass and home against Nova will give them a solid shot to lock up a seed.
William and Mary: The UNC loss doesn't hurt them but doesn't help them either. The win against Delaware should prove huge and their game at New Hampshire this week gives them a chance to basically lock up a playoff spot. The last two weeks against JMU and Richmond may either be against either deperate teams or our out of contention teams who've packed it in.
Villanova: Their win this weeks puts them in solid position to get into the playoffs. A win against Rhode Island this week would likely lock them in but they have to take care of business the next two weeks as they're at Delaware to close the season and a 7-4 record without a signature win (JMU and Richmond aren't in that category anymore) may put them on the outside looking in.
On the Bubble (4): New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Richmond, James Madison
UNH: Huge win against UMass on Saturday puts UNH in the field if the playoffs started today but they've got a tough road ahead with W&M at home and at Nova the week after.
Massachusetts: Their playoff hopes went on life support after getting dominated by UNH. They've got a favorable schedule (by CAA standards) down the stretch but they'll have to beat Delaware at home in two weeks to have any shot.
Richmond: They'll have to win out to get in and even then it might be iffy. A win over JMU this coming week wouldn't have looked as good as everyone thought earlier in the year but they still have W&M to make an impression and get a signature win.
JMU: Putting them here strictly out of respect for their win at Virginia Tech. They'll need to win out which would include a win over W&M to have a shot.
MEAC
Should be in (1): Bethune-Cookman
Bethune-Cookman: The Wildcats have to be careful. Their win over SCSU will do well for them but both Florida A&M and Hampton only have one conference loss and are still left on the schedule so dropping either of those may lost the autobid for them and put them firmly on the bubble. Those teams also still play each other though so Bethune-Cookman has the inside track on the autobid at any rate.
On the Bubble (1): South Carolina St
SCSU: The 20 team playoff field and a weak bubble should work to SCSU's advantage. They're preseason position should be good enough to get them in at 9-2 even if they don't have a signature win (unless Hampton counts). Regardless, they have to win out to be in contention and hope that the normal in conference beatings happen in the power conferences.
Missouri Valley
Should be in (1): Northern Iowa
UNI: The Panthers have a tough stretch run as they face an undeated home team at Indiana St next week before hosting a Missouri St squad who may still have an outside shot at the autobid and ending on the road at Western Illinois. They can probably lose the last game against WIU and still be in decent shape for an at large but the weakness of the MVFC hurts as there's not a lot of real quality wins to be had in the conference.
On the bubble (2): Western Illinois, North Dakota St
WIU: This weeks win puts WIU in good shape but they have a tough stretch run at SIU and hosting UNI to close out the season. Their road win at NDSU will help them should those two teams be compared for one of the last at large spots. They still control their own destiny however as winning out will give them the autobid.
NDSU: The Bison basically have to win out at this point with home games against SIU and SDSU (both of whom were weakened this past week) and on the road at Missouri St. The Kansas win gives them a signature victory but unless they can post a winning conference record they'll likely be too far down the conference pecking order to get a bid but they aren't entirely out of the question at 7-4.
OVC
Should be in (1): Jacksonville St
Jax St: Three good OOC wins against Ole Miss, Chatty, and GSU make the Gamecocks a virtual lock. A loss agains SEMO in a couple weeks may make things interesting but I can hardly see any scenario where they're left out.
On the bubble (1): Southeast Missouri St
SEMO: The SIU win isn't quite as substantial as it was earlier in the season but they still have Jax St left to nab the autobid. It would be tough to leave them out at 8-2 even if they do lose that one but they'll put themselves at the mercy of other bubble teams if they do.
SOCON
Should be in (2): Appalachian St, Wofford
ASU: Closest thing to a lock as there is at this point. They should lock up the top seed with wins at GSU and at home against Wofford but could convievably lose all 3 of their last games and still be in.
Wofford: They have a tough slate to finish off with games at ASU and at home against Chatty but unless they are thoroughly embarrassed in those last two they should be in.
On the bubble (1): Chattanooga
Chattanooga: The home loss against Elon on Saturday was the biggest loss for a bubble team in the country last week. They'll need to beat Wofford on the road to close the season and get a lot of help to get in (provided they don't pull the upset of the century against Auburn).
Others
Should be in (1): Stephen F Austin
SFA: Put the clamps on themselves with their implosion at home against Texas St last week but they should win the next two to put them in fine shape. A loss in the season finale against Northwestern St could lose the SLC autobid and may put SFA on the bubble but their win at UNI should help them immensely for at large consideration.
On the bubble (4): Cal Poly, Liberty, Robert Morris, Dayton.
Cal Poly: This might be the toughest team to judge. The Montana win could look great or just good by the end of the year. They'll have to win at South Dakota this week to have any shot but even an 8-3 Cal Poly squad would be on the bubble for an at large.
Liberty: Liberty looks to be on track for the Big South autobid but they look to have a very tough time if they lose the de facto conference championship to Stony Brook in 3 weeks. JMU tanking will hurt them as they'll need something other than the Ball St win to hang their hat on should they finish 2nd in the conference at 8-3.
Robert Morris: Should RMU lose the NEC autobid this weekend against CCU they will have a win against Liberty and a dominating win against Albany to hang their hat on but they'd need a lot a mayhem in the power conferences to have a shot at an at large.
Dayton: I put Dayton here instead of Jacksonville (since they don't play each other) by virtue of the fact that only one Pioneer team will even get consideration and Dayton has a win over Robert Morris OOC to give it a semi-signature win. If RMU goes 10-1 and gets the NEC autobid and there's mayhem in the power conferences Dayton may have an outside shot at an at large.
So that's 11 teams that should be in with the Big South, NEC, and Patriot autobids making it 14 teams that should be in as of now. That leaves 15 teams on the bubble for 6 spots (althouth Liberty and RMU could soften the bubble with autobids). Some big games to watch out for this weekend:
Weber St @ Montana St
William and Mary @ New Hampshire
Richmond @ JMU (definitely a must win for both to maintain any playoff hopes)
Northern Iowa @ Indiana St
Southern Illinois @ North Dakota St
Cal Poly @ South Dakota
Central Connecticut @ Robert Morris
Discuss away...