Week 6: Playoff Prognostications

[TexasTerror]

The most recent playoff prognostications, courtesy of TT.

And criticize me all you want, but it sure is fun to take a stab at this thing and I'd encourage you guys to try as well! xnodx

PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICATIONS
Memorial Day (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?t=69543)
End of June (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?69953-End-of-June-Playoff-Prognostications)
Start of August (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?70430-Start-of-August-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 1 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73204-Week-1-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 2 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73887-Week-2-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 3 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?74546-Week-3-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 4 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?75010-Week-4-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 5 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?75648-Week-5-Playoff-Prognostications)

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Delaware
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Colgate
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Colonial: UMass, William & Mary, James Madison
Great West: Cal Poly
MEAC: Hampton
Missouri Valley: Western Illinois
Ohio Valley: Southeast Missouri
Southern: Wofford
Southland: Texas State-San Marcos

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Robert Morris @ Colgate
Southeast Missouri @ Texas State-San Marcos
Eastern Washington @ Cal Poly
Hampton @ James Madison


SECOND ROUND GAMES

Robert Morris/Colgate winner @ #1 Appalachian State
William & Mary @ South Carolina State

Hampton/James Madison winner @ #4 Jacksonville State
Western Illinois @ Montana State

Eastern Washington/Cal Poly winner @ #3 Stephen F. Austin
Liberty @ Northern Iowa

SEMO/Texas State-San Marcos winner @ #2 Delaware
Wofford @ UMass


** NOTES **

Eastern Washington, Cal Poly gets picked over Montana by virtue of victories.
If Northern Arizona beats Montana State, will have some Big Sky decisions to make
Even though Texas State-San Marcos lost, their OOC schedule lends more to at-large. Best chance for SLC At-Large remains in San Marcos or if SFA were to lose out on AQ.
Hampton gets in over Bethune-Cookman based on S.O.S. Teams play Nov. 6

[crusader11]

What is your rationale with Hampton? All they have done is beat 4 crummy teams from the MEAC. I'd take a 4 loss CAA team over a MEAC team not named SC State any day.

[TexasTerror]

What is your rationale with Hampton? All they have done is beat 4 crummy teams from the MEAC. I'd take a 4 loss CAA team over a MEAC team not named SC State any day.

Still plenty of football left to be played...

I have to choose between Villanova (3-2), New Hampshire (3-3) and Rhode Island (2-3) amongst CAA teams outside of those listed with a good shot at it.

Villanova has James Madison and New Hampshire at home with Delaware on the road. They can play themselves back on to the grid...

New Hampshire goes to 'Nova and James Madison, plus hosts UMass. Tough. They can play themselves back into it, but they can only afford to lose one more...

Rhode Island can only lose one more with Delaware on the road with home games against UMass and Villanova.

Just think there's too much stopping those teams... and the NCAA would be happy to throw a second MEAC team in. May help them stay in so the NCAA does not have to bring in the Pioneer.

[crusader11]

There are several SoCon teams (Furman, GA Southern, 'Nooga) that are much more deserving than Hampton. Hampton only got by winless NC A&T by 14, 1-5 Howard by 10, and winless Delaware State by 6. There are far better candidates out there than Hampton. Heck, I'd even take the second best Patriot League team over the Pirates, and the PL is having its worst year ever.

[TexasTerror]

There are several SoCon teams (Furman, GA Southern, 'Nooga) that are much more deserving than Hampton. Hampton only got by winless NC A&T by 14, 1-5 Howard by 10, and winless Delaware State by 6. There are far better candidates out there than Hampton. Heck, I'd even take the second best Patriot League team over the Pirates, and the PL is having its worst year ever.

Georgia Southern has four road games amongst their final six including Chatty and Furman. Home game vs Appy. Not convinced they can avoid a 7-4 record. A 9-2 MEAC team is not better, but I think the NCAA gives them the nod over 7-4 GaSo unless the Eagles have a win over Appy and/or Chatty.

Chatty had a tough draw since they got Appy and Jax State. They still have an FBS game, so that's three losses (Auburn) and I'm personally picking them to lose at Furman and at Wofford. Five losses.

Furman is 3-2 and could get rolling. They have played Wofford, but games against the 'elite teams' in the league await. The playoffs may legitimately begin for Nov. 13 at Elon. The Phoenix are not the same, but win that and you could have Georgia Southern in an elimination game.

Plenty of football and plenty of elimination games...

[ValleyChamp]

Hey, what city is Texas St located in? I can never remember!


Thanks

[theasushow]

Georgia Southern has four road games amongst their final six including Chatty and Furman. Home game vs Appy. Not convinced they can avoid a 7-4 record. A 9-2 MEAC team is not better, but I think the NCAA gives them the nod over 7-4 GaSo unless the Eagles have a win over Appy and/or Chatty.

Chatty had a tough draw since they got Appy and Jax State. They still have an FBS game, so that's three losses (Auburn) and I'm personally picking them to lose at Furman and at Wofford. Five losses.

Furman is 3-2 and could get rolling. They have played Wofford, but games against the 'elite teams' in the league await. The playoffs may legitimately begin for Nov. 13 at Elon. The Phoenix are not the same, but win that and you could have Georgia Southern in an elimination game.

Plenty of football and plenty of elimination games...

I for one am going to pat you on the back........even if everybody isnt happy, you still give it a solid effort! (for the record i have never had a gripe with your predicitions, even when asu wasnt #1) obviously it's impossible to keep the thousands of posters on this site satisfied, and i'm sure while your "rationale" makes no sense to some, it makes perfect sense to others.

[bluehenbillk]

Not going to dissent much, but I'd have Villanova over Hampton....

[aggiemba]

Need to include UC Davis after tonights win over USD.
xhurrayx

[TexasTerror]

I for one am going to pat you on the back........even if everybody isnt happy, you still give it a solid effort! (for the record i have never had a gripe with your predicitions, even when asu wasnt #1) obviously it's impossible to keep the thousands of posters on this site satisfied, and i'm sure while your "rationale" makes no sense to some, it makes perfect sense to others.

Thanks - I'm just trying to get some good conversation going. I love the playoffs and love taking a guess on it! My rationale is tough to make sense of at this point with so many games, but I really do look at many of the contenders!


Need to include UC Davis after tonights win over USD. xhurrayx

You guys winning out? Remember South Alabama is non-classified and does not count for your playoff win total of seven Div I wins needed...

[TheBisonator]

TexasTerror, what's your opinion on NDSU at 4-2, and why you left them out of the playoff picture??

[TexasTerror]

TexasTerror, what's your opinion on NDSU at 4-2, and why you left them out of the playoff picture??

The MVFC is the toughest league outside of the Colonial in terms of each week's battles. The 1-2 record in league play is a major 'turn off' from adding NDSU to the list of playoff possiblities.

NDSU is definitely a team circled on my list to watch - especially since you got two tough roadies out of the way (UNI, YSU). Already played WIU too. Schedule doesn't get 'that easier', will be interesting to watch. Just wasn't ready to pull the trigger.

[Squealofthepig]

Bisonator - I think the rationale would be that there are a LOT of teams, esp. in the CAA, Big Sky, and MVC - that are possible, but far from definite. These will shake themselves out, but for now, teams like NDSU (and Montana) still have quite a bit of work to do. But we're also not out of it, either.

[Squealofthepig]

NDSU is definitely a team circled on my list to watch - especially since you got two tough roadies out of the way (UNI, YSU). Already played WIU too. Schedule doesn't get 'that easier', will be interesting to watch. Just wasn't ready to pull the trigger.

There's also that win over Kansas. Gotta give 'em props for that.

[theasushow]

There's also that win over Kansas. Gotta give 'em props for that.

i think that is part of the problem, so many teams have looked playoff contender one week and playoff pretender the next....

[TexasTerror]

i think that is part of the problem, so many teams have looked playoff contender one week and playoff pretender the next....

No question there!

And some teams looked like pretenders on week one and are now catching all of us off-guard!

[emilimo701]

dude what's with your crush on Hampton? Putting in Hampton over Villanova is ridiculous (and i'm seeing you are getting other ridicule) from an objective AND any type of rational subjective standpoint. Not only would I put Villanova in the bracket, but at this point i'd even still give them a seed. A one-score loss to a tough W&M team on the road with a few temporarily injured players by the national champs shouldn't be enough to turn any reasonable FCS fan into a non-believer.

But I agree with Texas State still hanging in there. With Georgia Southern and Richmond losing, things have shaken up a bit. Like some other guy said, North Dakota State is knocking on the door again; i'd be deciding between them, Texas State, and Montana for that last spot if the playoffs were to begin today, in my opinion.

It's looking more and more like the Pioneer could win that elusive at-large.

Who's your #5 seed? I think it should be UMass. Just sayin'. ;-)

[TexasTerror]

dude what's with your crush on Hampton? Putting in Hampton over Villanova is ridiculous (and i'm seeing you are getting other ridicule) from an objective AND any type of rational subjective standpoint. Not only would I put Villanova in the bracket, but at this point i'd even still give them a seed. A one-score loss to a tough W&M team on the road with a few temporarily injured players by the national champs shouldn't be enough to turn any reasonable FCS fan into a non-believer.

Does it really matter at this point? All that will matter is as we get closer to the goal line.

At this point - Villanova needs to play themselves into the playoffs and make sure they have enough wins to truly get considered. I've been clear why I did not add another CAA time to the lot and that I really believe in a 20-team field that a 10-1 or 9-2 MEAC team is a "lock" to get in.

Do you have the chutzpah to post a bracket? Seems Haley and I are the only ones that do - and he gets tons more crap than I do! ;)


Who's your #5 seed? I think it should be UMass. Just sayin'. ;-)

Per my bracket, it is Montana State... who have just a one-point loss to an FBS. We'll see. Nothing is certain.

[emilimo701]

here ya go


SE Missouri State @ Western IL --|
at |---|
Delaware (1) --| |
|---|
Montana State --| | |
at |---| |
Eastern Washington --| |
|---|
Massachusetts --| | |
at |---| | |
Jacksonville State (5) --| | | |
|---| |
Cal Poly @ Montana --| | |
at |---| |
Stephen F. Austin (4) --| |
|
Robert Morris @ Lehigh --| |
at |---| |
Villanova (3) --| | |
|---| |
South Carolina State --| | | |
at |---| | |
William & Mary --| | |
|---|
Wofford --| |
at |---| |
James Madison --| | |
|---|
Liberty @ Northern Iowa --| |
at |---|
Appalachian State (2) --|

First four out:
Texas State
North Dakota State
Chattanooga
Georgia Southern

Next four out:
Furman
Jacksonville
McNeese State
(to appease you) Hampton

[Squealofthepig]

here ya go


SE Missouri State @ Western IL --|
at |---|
Delaware (1) --| |
|---|
Montana State --| | |
at |---| |
Eastern Washington --| |
|---|
Massachusetts --| | |
at |---| | |
Jacksonville State (5) --| | | |
|---| |
Cal Poly @ Montana --| | |
at |---| |
Stephen F. Austin (4) --| |
|
Robert Morris @ Lehigh --| |
at |---| |
Villanova (3) --| | |
|---| |
South Carolina State --| | | |
at |---| | |
William & Mary --| | |
|---|
Wofford --| |
at |---| |
James Madison --| | |
|---|
Liberty @ Northern Iowa --| |
at |---|
Appalachian State (2) --|

First four out:
Texas State
North Dakota State
Chattanooga
Georgia Southern

Next four out:
Furman
Jacksonville
McNeese State
(to appease you) Hampton

Good job, but I see one conference game and one other game that's also already been played. The west is just gonna be a problem this year, I think. I also don't think three big sky teams get in.

[emilimo701]

Good job, but I see one conference game and one other game that's also already been played. The west is just gonna be a problem this year, I think. I also don't think three big sky teams get in.

yeah i realized it was hard to arrange after i decided on Montana being the last in. I really didn't want to put Montana State at Eastern Washington even though it's techincally the second round the committee would still probably want to avoid that. Honestly I see Eastern Washington running away with the division as long as they stay balanced and Montana probably getting the Big Sky's only at large. The conference seems to be pretty balanced though so there will be trap games. We'll see. I'm focused more on keeping up with my team and the CAA, hoping the usual parity doesn't manifest itself for another season

[emilimo701]

Good job, but I see one conference game and one other game that's also already been played. The west is just gonna be a problem this year, I think. I also don't think three big sky teams get in.

oh and what is the other game that has been played. even if it's OOC would they still try to avoid it?

[Sader87]

Lehigh????

[emilimo701]

Lehigh????

Lehigh. :)

Colgate looks better on paper, especially against common opponent Princeton. I would concede Colgate being the favorite in the league, but with nearly identical Sagarin ratings, and with Lehigh hosting Colgate in a couple weeks, I decided to put them in for the fun of it. It would create a potential "rematch"* between them and 'Nova.

*wasn't really much of a "match" to begin with though

[Screamin_Eagle174]

MSU, EWU, and UM will all make the playoffs. Mark it down.

[Squealofthepig]

MSU, EWU, and UM will all make the playoffs. Mark it down.

I think that's possible, but for that to happen, everyone has to win out and UM probably has to win the annual Brawl of the Wild, creating a three-way tie for first (UM beating MSU beating EWU beating UM). EWU probably has the most favorable schedule remaining (have already played UM/MSU; have beaten NAU; and road games are at PSU and Northern Colorado). The Cats have to play the brawl of the wild, and travel to NAU; and the Griz host NAU and travel to Weber. I think those are all possible wins, but definite wins? Probably not. The Big Sky is like the Valley this year - a decent amount of parity and several teams determined to not win (see the Cats first half today, and most of the Griz games - Montana just plain likes giving the ball away, and that's gotta stop if the Griz are gonna be playoff bound). I think two teams is pretty realistic, but three teams will need to have cards fall in place just right, and it's almost as likely to be a one-bid league.

[emilimo701]

I think that's possible, but for that to happen, everyone has to win out and UM probably has to win the annual Brawl of the Wild, creating a three-way tie for first (UM beating MSU beating EWU beating UM). EWU probably has the most favorable schedule remaining (have already played UM/MSU; have beaten NAU; and road games are at PSU and Northern Colorado). The Cats have to play the brawl of the wild, and travel to NAU; and the Griz host NAU and travel to Weber. I think those are all possible wins, but definite wins? Probably not. The Big Sky is like the Valley this year - a decent amount of parity and several teams determined to not win (see the Cats first half today, and most of the Griz games - Montana just plain likes giving the ball away, and that's gotta stop if the Griz are gonna be playoff bound). I think two teams is pretty realistic, but three teams will need to have cards fall in place just right, and it's almost as likely to be a one-bid league.

well put, makes sense

[CopperCat]

I think that's possible, but for that to happen, everyone has to win out and UM probably has to win the annual Brawl of the Wild, creating a three-way tie for first (UM beating MSU beating EWU beating UM). EWU probably has the most favorable schedule remaining (have already played UM/MSU; have beaten NAU; and road games are at PSU and Northern Colorado). The Cats have to play the brawl of the wild, and travel to NAU; and the Griz host NAU and travel to Weber. I think those are all possible wins, but definite wins? Probably not. The Big Sky is like the Valley this year - a decent amount of parity and several teams determined to not win (see the Cats first half today, and most of the Griz games - Montana just plain likes giving the ball away, and that's gotta stop if the Griz are gonna be playoff bound). I think two teams is pretty realistic, but three teams will need to have cards fall in place just right, and it's almost as likely to be a one-bid league.

With how competetive EWU, UM, MSU, and NAU have all been to this point, I would say the BSC being a single team league is highly unlikely given that there are 20 teams in the playoffs.

[furpal87]

I think in several leagues we still have several teams who could go one way or the other or have some massive ugly ties. Some 7-4 team will probably make it, I know Montana can't at 7-4, and this thread mentioned UC-Davis can't, and I think Wofford can't having played I think it was Union? It'll be interesting to see how things shake out the next several weeks.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I think that's possible, but for that to happen, everyone has to win out and UM probably has to win the annual Brawl of the Wild, creating a three-way tie for first (UM beating MSU beating EWU beating UM). EWU probably has the most favorable schedule remaining (have already played UM/MSU; have beaten NAU; and road games are at PSU and Northern Colorado). The Cats have to play the brawl of the wild, and travel to NAU; and the Griz host NAU and travel to Weber. I think those are all possible wins, but definite wins? Probably not. The Big Sky is like the Valley this year - a decent amount of parity and several teams determined to not win (see the Cats first half today, and most of the Griz games - Montana just plain likes giving the ball away, and that's gotta stop if the Griz are gonna be playoff bound). I think two teams is pretty realistic, but three teams will need to have cards fall in place just right, and it's almost as likely to be a one-bid league.

UM and EWU would still make the field with another loss (8-3, 7-3 D-I), especially given their history. MSU can drop two games and also get in. The Big Sky being a one-bid (AQ) league isn't likely at all. Don't forget there are two extra AL bids this year, and last year a 7-4 Weber team snuck in. There's a lot more parity in all the conferences this year; MVFC and CAA especially beating up one another.

[TexasTerror]

Good job, but I see one conference game and one other game that's also already been played. The west is just gonna be a problem this year, I think. I also don't think three big sky teams get in.

Correct - the games in the 'west' just won't work...

Also have a hard time seeing the Big Sky getting three teams in based on the remaining schedule.

[profisme]

Barring any upsets, the Big Sky WILL get three teams in the playoffs. EWU's biggest challenge at this point will be Portland State. UM has Portland State, NAU, and MSU. MSU has NAU and UM left which could be losses. Even if they lose both of those, they still will make the playoffs.

[theasushow]

Barring any upsets, the Big Sky WILL get three teams in the playoffs. EWU's biggest challenge at this point will be Portland State. UM has Portland State, NAU, and MSU. MSU has NAU and UM left which could be losses. Even if they lose both of those, they still will make the playoffs.

well there you have it. Big Sky gets 3 teams in this year....no point in it even being brought up again for the remainder of the season.

[WileECoyote06]

I'd like to be a MEAC homer, but having seen Hampton yesterday and knowing how we literally gave them the game; I'm convinced that BCC is going to beat them like a drum; and Norfolk State will probably beat them as well. As a matter of fact, they may lose five games in a row: NSU, SCSU, ODU, BCC, FAMU.

[TexasTerror]

Barring any upsets, the Big Sky WILL get three teams in the playoffs. EWU's biggest challenge at this point will be Portland State. UM has Portland State, NAU, and MSU. MSU has NAU and UM left which could be losses. Even if they lose both of those, they still will make the playoffs.

Northern Arizona has a VERY good chance of being the thorn in the side of multiple teams attempting to get into the playoffs...


I'd like to be a MEAC homer, but having seen Hampton yesterday and knowing how we literally gave them the game; I'm convinced that BCC is going to beat them like a drum; and Norfolk State will probably beat them as well. As a matter of fact, they may lose five games in a row: NSU, SCSU, ODU, BCC, FAMU.

We'll see what happens with the MEAC. I really believe you'll have South Carolina State run away with it and Hampton with nine wins. If they lose, my bracket will change. I'll react accordingly...

Too many responders are worked over Hampton. Hampton is much better positioned to get to nine wins than many of the Big Sky, CAA, MVFC schools who have plenty of road blocks in getting to seven.

[heath]

Not going to dissent much, but I'd have Villanova over Hampton....

my thoughts exactly,-any 4 loss CAA team gets in over Hampton
Still think Montana somehow gets an at large

[heath]

Barring any upsets, the Big Sky WILL get three teams in the playoffs. EWU's biggest challenge at this point will be Portland State. UM has Portland State, NAU, and MSU. MSU has NAU and UM left which could be losses. Even if they lose both of those, they still will make the playoffs.

SoCon vs Big Sky-both supporters feel they WILL or DESERVE 3 teams,who has the best chance? "Barring any upsets"

[Humble Steward]

I'd like to be a MEAC homer, but having seen Hampton yesterday and knowing how we literally gave them the game; I'm convinced that BCC is going to beat them like a drum; and Norfolk State will probably beat them as well. As a matter of fact, they may lose five games in a row: NSU, SCSU, ODU, BCC, FAMU.

I'm not sure if Hampton is the second best team in the MEAC this year and I'm not saying that we are either. I know that my B-CU Wildcats have alot to prove to make the playoffs (starting next week). Our strength of schedule doesn't help us at all either. However, I will say that the teams we have faced so far have definitely seen a more productive offense and defense. We have done a great job in dictating our own game. There is a different vibe going on in Daytona Beach these days and the players are really responding to the coaching staff. No predictions here, but I like what I see going into a crucial conference game Saturday against South Carolina St.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Correct - the games in the 'west' just won't work...

Also have a hard time seeing the Big Sky getting three teams in based on the remaining schedule.

That ECBDB is clouding your vision. UM and EWU both can afford one loss and get in... I don't see either team losing more than one remaining game. MSU can afford two and get in. With the playoffs expanded, there's no way an 8-3 (7-3 D-I) Big Sky team doesn't get in.

[WileECoyote06]

Northern Arizona has a VERY good chance of being the thorn in the side of multiple teams attempting to get into the playoffs...



We'll see what happens with the MEAC. I really believe you'll have South Carolina State run away with it and Hampton with nine wins. If they lose, my bracket will change. I'll react accordingly...

Too many responders are worked over Hampton. Hampton is much better positioned to get to nine wins than many of the Big Sky, CAA, MVFC schools who have plenty of road blocks in getting to seven.

There in a good position, but I don't think they have the horses to do it.

[JMUNJ08]

SoCon vs Big Sky-both supporters feel they WILL or DESERVE 3 teams,who has the best chance? "Barring any upsets"

Has to be the Big Sky. The reason being ther are fewer easy games for SoCon teams in conference. Idaho St & Northern Colorado have been pretty bad lately and the middle of the pack in the Big Sky isn't as good as the middle of the SoCon.

As several posters have stated, UM/MSU/EWU seem to be the front runners with NAU as an outside chance. The SoCon? ASU then who? Could see Furman, GSo, Wofford or Chatty make it as At Larges but not more than 2 of them. But will 2 even pull away? Got a few more weeks to find out!

[crusader11]

Hampton is in and Villanova is out??? I simply don't see it.

[profisme]

well there you have it. Big Sky gets 3 teams in this year....no point in it even being brought up again for the remainder of the season.

Glad my point was so succinctly made that you won't argue anymore xthumbsupx

Seriously though, NAU and PSU could pose problems for UM before they get the chance to play MSU, but UM still has to be the favorite in both of those games, hence why I said "barring any upsets". EWU is through the toughest part of their schedule having really only Sac. State and PSU in a couple weeks which could prevent them getting in.

MSU still has to play NAU, WSU, and UM, but as of now, they would have be considered the favorites in all of those, again referring to my saying "barring any upsets". Does anyone here think an 8-3 UM or EWU team wouldn't get an at-large bid?

[B&G]

For gits and shiggles, here is mine. Obviously a lot can change. I like Bethune's chances though. They have a good shot at 10 wins... and if they beat SCSU, then I think SCSU can get in as an at-large.

Rd. 1
Bethune-Cookman @ Georgia Southern
Western Illinois @ Montana
Robert Morris @ Colgate
Liberty @ James Madison
==========================================

RMU/Colgate @ #1 Appalachian State
Wofford @ South Carolina State

WIU/Montana @ #4 Stephen F. Austin
Southeast Missouri @ Montana State


B-C/GSU @ #2 Delaware
William & Mary @ Southern Illinois

Liberty/JMU @ #3 Jacksonville State
UMass @ Eastern Washington

[TexasTerror]

That ECBDB is clouding your vision. UM and EWU both can afford one loss and get in... I don't see either team losing more than one remaining game. MSU can afford two and get in. With the playoffs expanded, there's no way an 8-3 (7-3 D-I) Big Sky team doesn't get in.

I agree with that assessment, but still do not see the Big Sky having more than two teams that are at least 7-3 against Division I competition this year. Some of the scores coming back this way from the 'west' have been head scratchers.


For gits and shiggles, here is mine. Obviously a lot can change. I like Bethune's chances though. They have a good shot at 10 wins... and if they beat SCSU, then I think SCSU can get in as an at-large.

Rd. 1
Bethune-Cookman @ Georgia Southern
Western Illinois @ Montana
Robert Morris @ Colgate
Liberty @ James Madison
==========================================

RMU/Colgate @ #1 Appalachian State
Wofford @ South Carolina State

WIU/Montana @ #4 Stephen F. Austin
Southeast Missouri @ Montana State


B-C/GSU @ #2 Delaware
William & Mary @ Southern Illinois

Liberty/JMU @ #3 Jacksonville State
UMass @ Eastern Washington

Uh oh, you just put two MEAC squads in! This is ludicrous! No Villanova?!?!?

All kidding aside, glad that someone else shared their bracket. Can you imagine Montana getting into the new first round and then having to hit the road for SFA in the next round? Would love it!

[RabidRabbit]

The MVFC is the toughest league outside of the Colonial in terms of each week's battles. The 1-2 record in league play is a major 'turn off' from adding NDSU to the list of playoff possiblities.

NDSU is definitely a team circled on my list to watch - especially since you got two tough roadies out of the way (UNI, YSU). Already played WIU too. Schedule doesn't get 'that easier', will be interesting to watch. Just wasn't ready to pull the trigger.

NDSU has the best shot of getting an at-large from the MVFC because of the 3 OOC wins, including a ranked FCS and FBS, Big 12 win. However, Bison still really need to be part of the co-champs from the MVFC.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

Round 1 -

Wofford @ JMU
Robert Morris @ Colgate
Western Illinois @ SE Missouri
Chattanooga @ NC State

Round 2 -
Chattanooga @ #4 William & Mary
SFA @ Jacksonville State

Colgate @ #3 UMass
Liberty @ Georgia Southern

Western Illinois @ #2 App State
Montana @ Montana State

JMU @ #1 Delaware
UNI @ Villanova

Round 3 -

Jacksonville State @ #4 W&M

Montana @ #3 UMass

Villanova @ #2 App State

Georgia Southern @ #1 Delaware

Round 4 -

Jacksonville State @ #1 Delaware

#3 UMass @ #2 App State

Frisco TX -

UMass vs. Delaware

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I agree with that assessment, but still do not see the Big Sky having more than two teams that are at least 7-3 against Division I competition this year. Some of the scores coming back this way from the 'west' have been head scratchers.


Let's see here, EWU's played both UM and MSU, so we can't affect either of them not getting to 7-3 D-I. EWU has played the bulk of their toughest games, I'd say it's more likely than not that we win out. Even if we don't, we're not going to drop two. UM plays three of their last four games at home in the friendly confines of WA-Griz, including the MSU and NAU games. If NAU can't beat EWU on the road, then I really doubt they can beat UM on the road, leaving MSU as the Griz' highest chance for a loss. So are you basing your wishful thinking on MSU dropping three of their last 5 when they're averaging almost 42 points a game against D-I competition?? Please, instead of just spouting off wishful thinking without anything to back it up, provide us with supporting examples. DB.

http://www.myuploadedimages.com/images/99702337220370945187.png

[TheValleyRaider]

Round 1 -

Wofford @ JMU
Robert Morris @ Colgate
Western Illinois @ SE Missouri
Chattanooga @ NC State

I realize the ACC isn't anything special this year, but I think dropping one of them into our playoff is a bit harsh ;)

[Squealofthepig]

I realize the ACC isn't anything special this year, but I think dropping one of them into our playoff is a bit harsh ;)

It's also advantageous for the CAA, as they've owned their DNA-pair-matching ACC opponents. I assume he meant SC State, but that is amusing. :)

[CopperCat]

NAU is being seriously overlooked here. They are flying low and fast, and nobody is talking about them. Herrick is a helluva QB (he was injured though vs. EWU), and they have a defense that can stop the run. And what's more is that they have only one loss in conference play. If NAU can stay healthy and catch fire, they might be in the post-season discussion just as much as EWU, UM, and MSU. Yet another reason why the BSC may have three teams in the playoffs (even though TT won't hear a word of that xsmiley_wix).

[GoAgs72]

If both teams continue to win, the UC Davis game at Cal Poly on November 13 will be very interesting.

[emilimo701]

Round 1 -

Wofford @ JMU
Robert Morris @ Colgate
Western Illinois @ SE Missouri
Chattanooga @ NC State

Round 2 -
Chattanooga @ #4 William & Mary
SFA @ Jacksonville State

Colgate @ #3 UMass
Liberty @ Georgia Southern

Western Illinois @ #2 App State
Montana @ Montana State

JMU @ #1 Delaware
UNI @ Villanova

Round 3 -

Jacksonville State @ #4 W&M

Montana @ #3 UMass

Villanova @ #2 App State

Georgia Southern @ #1 Delaware

Round 4 -

Jacksonville State @ #1 Delaware

#3 UMass @ #2 App State

Frisco TX -

UMass vs. Delaware

yes!!! love it!!!

can't wait to see a preview of the National Championship in a few weeks! ;-)

[emilimo701]

I realize the ACC isn't anything special this year, but I think dropping one of them into our playoff is a bit harsh ;)

loved seeing them whoop BC last weekend though, a week after getting to see notre dame also whoop BC :-D

[emilimo701]

Correct - the games in the 'west' just won't work...

Also have a hard time seeing the Big Sky getting three teams in based on the remaining schedule.

Okay so would that not happen, even with the new 1st round actually being the 2nd round? Translation: the committee would be trying to avoid previously played games in both the first AND second rounds?

[Squealofthepig]

Okay so would that not happen, even with the new 1st round actually being the 2nd round? Translation: the committee would be trying to avoid previously played games in both the first AND second rounds?

That's a really interesting question, especially since the games west of the Mississippi could very likely involve a small number of teams which have played each other already. I think the only thing the committee can worry about is rematches in the first round, otherwise you just create headaches for yourself.

This also poses another interesting question, which I hadn't considered until emilfino701 brought it up... how will bids really affect this? Let's say - just for argument - that Montana runs the tables. Would the committee really want to give them a bye in the first round, or would they say, hey, let's let our dependable money-maker Montana host a first round game! (I will be the first to admit this is a bit of a stretch currently, given Montana's inability to hang on to the ball, but throw it out to understand how the committee will look at setting up the bracket). It may make sense to set up relatively "easy" games and not seed teams like ASU or Montana because they'll be a definite sell-out in the opening round.

Granted, I'm a proponent of seeding ALL playoff teams (as the bid system seems a bit shady), but this also can show us whEere the committee's priorities are: money, vs. a pure playoff system.

Edit: "West of the Mississippi" should really be "West of the MVC" - realize there are quite a few valley teams which should figure into this equation which are west of the Mississippi.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

It's also advantageous for the CAA, as they've owned their DNA-pair-matching ACC opponents. I assume he meant SC State, but that is amusing. :)

I did in fact mean SC State, whoops.

[TexasTerror]

NAU is being seriously overlooked here. They are flying low and fast, and nobody is talking about them. Herrick is a helluva QB (he was injured though vs. EWU), and they have a defense that can stop the run. And what's more is that they have only one loss in conference play. If NAU can stay healthy and catch fire, they might be in the post-season discussion just as much as EWU, UM, and MSU. Yet another reason why the BSC may have three teams in the playoffs (even though TT won't hear a word of that xsmiley_wix).

Hey - I'm the one that is saying that NAU is going to ruin the Big Sky's chances by getting a few wins! :)


If both teams continue to win, the UC Davis game at Cal Poly on November 13 will be very interesting.

UC-Davis has no option but to win out in order to get into the playoffs due to the South Alabama game not counting.

[TexasTerror]

Latest drivel from Craig Haley...

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

He has SFA on the road against Montana State in the second round... LOL!

Has Eastern Washington at Montana in the second round... LOL!

[emilimo701]

Granted, I'm a proponent of seeding ALL playoff teams (as the bid system seems a bit shady), but this also can show us whEere the committee's priorities are: money, vs. a pure playoff system.

IIRC, there are two main reasons why it is the way it is. After Sept 11 2001, they wanted to limit the amount of plane flights. This, in turn, also saved a lot of schools travel costs. So yes money has to do with it but not all in bad ways. Is it time to change this? Maybe... probably..

[emilimo701]

revised... this is how i'd see it at the time being


SE Missouri State @ Western IL --|
at |---|
Delaware (1) --| |
|---|
Montana State --| | |
at |---| |
Massachusetts --| |
|---|
Cal Poly --| | |
at |---| | |
Jacksonville State (5) --| | | |
|---| |
E Washington @ North Dakota St --| | |
at |---| |
Stephen F. Austin (4) --| |
|
Robert Morris @ Colgate --| |
at |---| |
Villanova (3) --| | |
|---| |
William & Mary --| | | |
at |---| | |
South Carolina State --| | |
|---|
Wofford --| |
at |---| |
James Madison --| | |
|---|
Liberty @ Montana --| |
at |---|
Appalachian State (2) --|

First four out:
Georgia Southern
Northern Iowa
Northern Arizona
Texas State

Next four out:
Furman
McNeese State
Southern Illinois
Chattanooga

[Squealofthepig]

emilimo - there are a LOT of games I'd love to see in that bracket, including a potential second round rematch of Montana/ASU, this time at Kid Brewer. Wofford/JMU, EWU at NDSU, Cal Poly at Jacksonville State, SEMO/WIU, MSU at Massachusetts - just a lot of games there I'd love to see.

[ndstate]

i think that is part of the problem, so many teams have looked playoff contender one week and playoff pretender the next....

couldnt agree more. ndsu hasnt shown they are a playoff team................yet

[caribbeanhen]

2 MEAC teams? xliarx

No Nova? where is Mr. Thomas hiding?

the common demonator: the 5th CAA team you omit every week would be favored against half the field and about 3/4 if you dont include the other 4 CAA teams (I actually felt stronger about that statement last year but stand by it)

[TexasTerror]

the common demonator: the 5th CAA team you omit every week would be favored against half the field and about 3/4 if you dont include the other 4 CAA teams (I actually felt stronger about that statement last year but stand by it)

We need to get closer to the finish line to make sure we have five CAA teams with at least seven wins and two MEAC teams that do not have nine or more wins. Just have a hard time seeing the NCAA committee bypassing a nine-win MEAC team for a fifth team from the CAA...

[caribbeanhen]

Just have a hard time seeing the NCAA committee bypassing a nine-win MEAC team for a fifth team from the CAA...

well, how many times in recent years has the CAA fielded 5 in the 16 team format? So they increase the field to 20 and now we only get 4? what would that 9 win MEAC team look like if they played in the CAA? see Rhode Island or Towson

[TexasTerror]

well, how many times in recent years has the CAA fielded 5 in the 16 team format? So they increase the field to 20 and now we only get 4? what would that 9 win MEAC team look like if they played in the CAA? see Rhode Island or Towson

I'm not doubting that the CAA can get five teams in. It's too early to be certain that the league will have enough seven win teams to do it though. There's surprises in the scores each week in CAA league play. It's not as cut and dry as other leagues. No slam on your league, if anything it is a compliment towards the depth... just that at this point, I can see two MEAC teams (two of Bethune Cookman, Hampton and So Carolina State) having nine win seasons...

The NCAA would be hard-pressed to not take a second MEAC school, especially if they want to hold off the threat of a Heritage Bowl and a few other things that no one would be willing to acnkowledge... see the NCAA play-in game situation in hoops.

[WileECoyote06]

I'm not doubting that the CAA can get five teams in. It's too early to be certain that the league will have enough seven win teams to do it though. There's surprises in the scores each week in CAA league play. It's not as cut and dry as other leagues. No slam on your league, if anything it is a compliment towards the depth... just that at this point, I can see two MEAC teams (two of Bethune Cookman, Hampton and So Carolina State) having nine win seasons...

The NCAA would be hard-pressed to not take a second MEAC school, especially if they want to hold off the threat of a Heritage Bowl and a few other things that no one would be willing to acnkowledge... see the NCAA play-in game situation in hoops.

Please don't use that logic. Some posters will call it an affirmative action at-large berth. .xeyebrowx .

I do think that if BCC or SCSU both finish 10 - 1; the committee would be hard pressed to justify denying either a spot in the playoffs. I also think that SCSU gets in if they lose to BCC and beat everyone else. I'm not sure that a 9 - 2 BCC squad gets the nod though.

[Saint3333]

well, how many times in recent years has the CAA fielded 5 in the 16 team format? So they increase the field to 20 and now we only get 4? what would that 9 win MEAC team look like if they played in the CAA? see Rhode Island or Towson

The CAA had 5 once in the 16 team format and that was with 12 teams. Playing everyone makes if less likely half of the teams will have 7 D1 wins.

Someone will likely need to upset Delaware for 5 CAA teams to the make the playoffs, that doesn't look likely the way the schedule shapes up.

[Nebuta]

revised... this is how i'd see it at the time being


SE Missouri State @ Western IL --|
at |---|
Delaware (1) --| |
|---|
Montana State --| | |
at |---| |
Massachusetts --| |
|---|
Cal Poly --| | |
at |---| | |
Jacksonville State (5) --| | | |
|---| |
E Washington @ North Dakota St --| | |
at |---| |
Stephen F. Austin (4) --| |
|
Robert Morris @ Colgate --| |
at |---| |
Villanova (3) --| | |
|---| |
William & Mary --| | | |
at |---| | |
South Carolina State --| | |
|---|
Wofford --| |
at |---| |
James Madison --| | |
|---|
Liberty @ Montana --| |
at |---|
Appalachian State (2) --|

First four out:
Georgia Southern
Northern Iowa
Northern Arizona
Texas State

Next four out:
Furman
McNeese State
Southern Illinois
Chattanooga

UMass is not an #8 seed in the tourney. UMass is AT LEAST a 5-6. imho But there is alot of football left to be played.

And yes 5 teams should make the dance from the CAA, if that 5th team is 7-4 (4-4 or 5-3)

[BlueHenSinfonian]

The CAA had 5 once in the 16 team format and that was with 12 teams. Playing everyone makes if less likely half of the teams will have 7 D1 wins.

Someone will likely need to upset Delaware for 5 CAA teams to the make the playoffs, that doesn't look likely the way the schedule shapes up.

IMO Delaware's toughest games this season have yet to be played. UMass is shaping up to be the biggest threat, with W&M sneaking up close behind. Villanova hasn't looked as good this year as last, but they always play above their regular ability when it's against UD.

[caribbeanhen]

Someone will likely need to upset Delaware for 5 CAA teams to the make the playoffs, that doesn't look likely the way the schedule shapes up.

Show me one Delaware fan that thinks (or at least will say in public) we will run the table... at least 1 loss and maybe 2 more, We still have W&M, Villanova, and UMASS all in the top 10

[caribbeanhen]

The CAA had 5 once in the 16 team format

only once? anyone

[Saint3333]

Not sure why people are so impressed with W&M this year. I'd put them behind Delaware, UMass, JMU, and a healthy Nova. I believe they will be 7-4 this season. There could be two 7-4 CAA teams of the five listed in the playoff selections above, I doubt both would make it as there will be an 8-3 team in the SoCon, Big Sky, etc. that would be taken before them or maybe even a 10-1 or 9-2 MEAC/OVC school.

[Saint3333]

Show me one Delaware fan that thinks (or at least will say in public) we will run the table... at least 1 loss and maybe 2 more, We still have W&M, Villanova, and UMASS all in the top 10

That is just a CAA outsider's opinion, much like most of the non-SoCon fans probably think ASU will run the SoCon table, I certainly don't with Furman, Wofford, and @ GSU left.

[caribbeanhen]

Not sure why people are so impressed with W&M this year. I'd put them behind Delaware, UMass, JMU, and a healthy Nova.

You just ranked them #5 in the nation and your not impressed?

[tribefan40]

Not sure why people are so impressed with W&M this year. I'd put them behind Delaware, UMass, JMU, and a healthy Nova. I believe they will be 7-4 this season. There could be two 7-4 CAA teams of the five listed in the playoff selections above, I doubt both would make it as there will be an 8-3 team in the SoCon, Big Sky, etc. that would be taken before them or maybe even a 10-1 or 9-2 MEAC/OVC school.

Let's not forget that W&M was plenty injured as well for the Nova game. The flashes they have shown the last couple weeks, particularly the leadership of Paulus, puts them on a different level from their play the first part of the season. Many players have stepped up unexpectedly and the depth we have shown this year is unlike any I can remember. My prediction is still 8-3 for the season (Losses to UMass, UD and UNC), but I believe they are just as legitimate a threat as last year. xtwocentsx

[soccerguy315]

The CAA had 5 teams at least twice.

In 2007 it was UNH, UMass, Richmond, Delaware, JMU.
In 2008 it was UNH, Villanova, JMU, Maine, Richmond


Not sure why people are so impressed with W&M this year. I'd put them behind Delaware, UMass, JMU, and a healthy Nova. I believe they will be 7-4 this season. There could be two 7-4 CAA teams of the five listed in the playoff selections above, I doubt both would make it as there will be an 8-3 team in the SoCon, Big Sky, etc. that would be taken before them or maybe even a 10-1 or 9-2 MEAC/OVC school.

I'm not sure why people are impressed with ASU either... they have wins against Chattanooga (NR), Jacksonville (NR), NC Central (NR), Samford (NR), and Elon (NR). When will they play some Top 25 teams so people can get a fair read?

W&M has arguably the biggest win against an FCS opponent of the season, knocking off then #1 Villanova. W&M was not fully healthy for that game either. Down a #1 QB, #1 WR, and with one of the best RBs in FCS banged up. Not to mention down a defensive captain at MLB and down our #1 P and K.

That said, it is obviously possibly W&M ends the season at 7-4. They need to beat the teams they "should" in @UNH and Richmond, and then split with Delaware and @JMU. If you mark down @North Carolina as a loss, that is what needs to happen to finish 8-3 Of course, even at 7-4 with loses to Delaware, @JMU, @UMass, and @UNC, an argument could be made that W&M is still one of the 10 best teams.

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

The CAA had 5 teams at least twice.

In 2007 it was UNH, UMass, Richmond, Delaware, JMU.
In 2008 it was UNH, Villanova, JMU, Maine, Richmond



I'm not sure why people are impressed with ASU either... they have wins against Chattanooga (NR), Jacksonville (NR), NC Central (NR), Samford (NR), and Elon (NR). When will they play some Top 25 teams so people can get a fair read?

W&M has arguably the biggest win against an FCS opponent of the season, knocking off then #1 Villanova. W&M was not fully healthy for that game either. Down a #1 QB, #1 WR, and with one of the best RBs in FCS banged up. Not to mention down a defensive captain at MLB and down our #1 P and K.

That said, it is obviously possibly W&M ends the season at 7-4. They need to beat the teams they "should" in @UNH and Richmond, and then split with Delaware and @JMU. If you mark down @North Carolina as a loss, that is what needs to happen to finish 8-3 Of course, even at 7-4 with loses to Delaware, @JMU, @UMass, and @UNC, an argument could be made that W&M is still one of the 10 best teams.

A 7-4 WM would be a playoff team....the argument about 10 would be pointless as they'd get the chance to prove it on the field.

[Aho_Old_Guy]

NAU is being seriously overlooked here. They are flying low and fast, and nobody is talking about them. Herrick is a helluva QB (he was injured though vs. EWU), and they have a defense that can stop the run. And what's more is that they have only one loss in conference play. If NAU can stay healthy and catch fire, they might be in the post-season discussion just as much as EWU, UM, and MSU. Yet another reason why the BSC may have three teams in the playoffs (even though TT won't hear a word of that xsmiley_wix).

NAUs past opponents have a 6-12 record -- future opponents have a 14-16 record.

MSUs past opponents have a 9-12 record -- future opponents have a 8-16 record.


Yes. It matters. You can't put lipstick on that swine. MSU can't get in by only catching EW (without TJ) on the rebound from UM. Unless MSU beats UM, the Big Fluffy gets 2.

It's why I'm not quite ready to jump on the BC Express as of yet. Their past opponents have a 3-11 record with future opponents at 10-17. If they put a whipping on SC State (Sorry, Dawgs!) -- I'll take them seriously.

[Go...gate]

I realize the ACC isn't anything special this year, but I think dropping one of them into our playoff is a bit harsh ;)

....and in the First Round, no less. : )

[UNH Fanboi]

Yes. It matters. You can't put lipstick on that swine. MSU can't get in by only catching EW (without TJ) on the rebound from UM. Unless MSU beats UM, the Big Fluffy gets 2.


What are you talking about? The Big Sky got 3 teams in last year, including a 7-4 team, without an expanded field. But you're saying that if Montana St. loses to Montana, then EWU (who MSU beat) and Montana will get into the playoffs and a 9-2 MSU will not?? Put the crackpipe down and step away from your computer.

[Aho_Old_Guy]

What are you talking about? The Big Sky got 3 teams in last year, including a 7-4 team, without an expanded field. But you're saying that if Montana St. loses to Montana, then EWU (who MSU beat) and Montana will get into the playoffs and a 9-2 MSU will not?? Put the crackpipe down and step away from your computer.

And that 7-4 team from the Big Fluffy went out of the playoffs 0-38.

[UNH Fanboi]

And that 7-4 team from the Big Fluffy went out of the playoffs 0-38.

That's irrelevant to whether or not a 9-2 Big Sky team will make the playoffs this year. You said that a 9-2 MSU will not make the playoffs, which is just flat out wrong.

[Aho_Old_Guy]

That's irrelevant to whether or not a 9-2 Big Sky team will make the playoffs this year. You said that a 9-2 MSU will not make the playoffs, which is just flat out wrong.

Not going to happen.

MSU strength-of-schedule is currently **100**

A 7-4 CAA with a top 10 SoS, or an 8-3 UTC (with the current top-ranked SoS) gets in before a 9-2 MSU with a *100* SoS, whose only claim to fame is beating EW (without TJ) in Sept, the week after the Eagles beat UM.

The Big Fluffy embarrassed the committee last year (see 0-38 above). Not to mention the '2nd' Fluffy playoff team that couldn't beat a team that lost by 51 the following week to UM.

Fattening up on Drake (#65 SoS), NAU (#79 SoS), Idaho St (#91 SoS) and Weber St (#63 SoS) does no good for MSU if they do not beat Montana (#82 SoS).

Of course, there is always that big win against Northern Colorado (no offense, Bears) that MSU can hang their hat on ... not

[Twentysix]

A 9-2 (9 DI wins) MSU gets in. No doubt about it. Assuming all of there wins are DI counters. SOS does matter, but not to that point. Otherwise the Playoff committe would just take SOS and overall records, and just start at SOS #1 and look backwards till they fill the playoffs (Assuming no AQ on there part and 7 DI wins). The committe is a bunch of AD's that wanna represent there schools and there conferences. Its politics. If it wasnt, a computer formula would just fill in the brackets.

[emilimo701]

UMass is not an #8 seed in the tourney. UMass is AT LEAST a 5-6. imho But there is alot of football left to be played.

And yes 5 teams should make the dance from the CAA, if that 5th team is 7-4 (4-4 or 5-3)

beyond #5, there are no seeds. The rest of the teams are bracketed by proximity, setting up as many bus-driving-distance games as possible. With the exception of the bottom eight teams, which I'm assuming they'd sift out to play the first round games.

HOWEVER, i still have UMass #8 in the pecking order, with William & Mary just ahead of my team. If we win with some style points this weekend (what should be a sellout, i can't wait!!!) then we leapfrog W&M. Right now 'Nova are the national champs and they seem to be just as strong this year, so burden of proof lies on the rest of the CAA teams.

[Catbooster]

NAUs past opponents have a 6-12 record -- future opponents have a 14-16 record.

MSUs past opponents have a 9-12 record -- future opponents have a 8-16 record.


Yes. It matters. You can't put lipstick on that swine. MSU can't get in by only catching EW (without TJ) on the rebound from UM. Unless MSU beats UM, the Big Fluffy gets 2.

It's why I'm not quite ready to jump on the BC Express as of yet. Their past opponents have a 3-11 record with future opponents at 10-17. If they put a whipping on SC State (Sorry, Dawgs!) -- I'll take them seriously.
I assume you're right - 9-12 combined record - and 4 of those 9 losses are due to MSU.

I don't get your logic - seems like you think a 9-2 MSU (8-2 D-I), with only losses to Washington State and UM, doesn't get into the playoffs. If the Eagles and Griz are in the playoffs, you must be assuming that they will win out. That puts all three teams climbing the rankings until the last week, when you have MSU losing to UM.

UM and EWU are ranked right behind MSU and their ranking will go up if they win out. The Big Sky would have a 3 way tie at the top. MSU would only have a loss to a top 10 team (UM) and a FBS (by 1 point after leading for the whole game).

Lots of games to be played before then and lots can happen. I expect the Griz to improve over the next month, and that will be a tough game (although I currently expect MSU to win). But I think MSU has a good chance of making the playoffs even if UM beats them, as long as that's their only stumble.

[uofmman1122]

Not going to happen.

MSU strength-of-schedule is currently **100**

A 7-4 CAA with a top 10 SoS, or an 8-3 UTC (with the current top-ranked SoS) gets in before a 9-2 MSU with a *100* SoS, whose only claim to fame is beating EW (without TJ) in Sept, the week after the Eagles beat UM.

The Big Fluffy embarrassed the committee last year (see 0-38 above). Not to mention the '2nd' Fluffy playoff team that couldn't beat a team that lost by 51 the following week to UM.

Fattening up on Drake (#65 SoS), NAU (#79 SoS), Idaho St (#91 SoS) and Weber St (#63 SoS) does no good for MSU if they do not beat Montana (#82 SoS).

Of course, there is always that big win against Northern Colorado (no offense, Bears) that MSU can hang their hat on ... notxrolleyesx

You clearly don't know what you're talking about, and are basing this solely on some kind of hard on for the Big Sky. We're talking about this scenario:

Montana wins out.
Montana State loses to UM.
EWU wins out.

9-2 (7-1) Montana State gets in. 9-2 (7-1) Montana gets in. 9-2 (7-1) Eastern Washington gets in.

If all these teams go 9-2, there is no way in hell one of them doesn't make the playoffs.

Seriously, dude...

[caribbeanhen]

xrolleyesx

You clearly don't know what you're talking about, and are basing this solely on some kind of hard on for the Big Sky. We're talking about this scenario:

Montana wins out.
Montana State loses to UM.
EWU wins out.

9-2 (7-1) Montana State gets in. 9-2 (7-1) Montana gets in. 9-2 (7-1) Eastern Washington gets in.

If all these teams go 9-2, there is no way in hell one of them doesn't make the playoffs.

Seriously, dude...


7-4 CAA > 9-2 Big Fluff

[uofmman1122]

7-4 CAA > 9-2 Big Fluffxlolx

You guys are too much. The committee is going to include all three, if all three finish 9-2. xreadx

[caribbeanhen]

xlolx

You guys are too much.

that statement proved to be true in the playoffs last year

[JMUNJ08]

7-4 CAA > 9-2 Big Fluff

Yes most likely but if it comes down to the last at large then Bif Fluff has it. BTW, it was 9-2 W&M who beat a 7-4 Weber St. last year in the playoffs.

[uofmman1122]

that statement proved to be true in the playoffs last yearxlolx We need the jerking off smilies again.

Anyway, it doesn't matter (although I'd love to see some BSC/CAA matchups this year xcoffeex). If this plays out, two the these teams will most likely be in the top 10, all of them will most likely be in the top 15. EWU and MSU are already in the top 10 of the GPI, which they use to determine playoff spots, and Montana is at #13.

If a team from an AQ conference goes 9-2, they make the playoffs, especially in the new expanded field.

It doesn't matter who you think is better. If a 9-2 BSC team and a 7-4 CAA are on the chopping block, the BSC team will get in, especially this year.

[HensRock]

Except that the 3 Sky teams wouldn't be 9-2, they would all be 8-2 in Div I.

[caribbeanhen]

[QUOTE=uofmman1122;1567665]xlolx We need the jerking off smilies again.

(although I'd love to see some BSC/CAA matchups this year xcoffeex).

keeping my fingers crossed, even better would be a Delaware vs Montana match up - would be lots of fun around here

[uofmman1122]

Except that the 3 Sky teams wouldn't be 9-2, they would all be 8-2 in Div I.8-2 is still better than 7-4, especially if said teams are all ranked in the top 15. xcoffeex