A Realistic Look at Pioneer League At-Large Candidates

[TexasTerror]

Pioneer League At-Large Possibilities... do any of these squads legitimately have a chance of getting selected for an at-large? I would say that Jacksonville and Dayton are best position.

The Flyers - had they been undefeated and avoided the setback to Duquesne after the big win over Robert Morris - would probably be worth consideration...

Thoughts? Let's try to avoid smack - but provide good discussion, so the PFLers have a realistic view of their shot.

Drake (3-2, 2-0 Pioneer) - has 28-14 loss to Lehigh and 48-21 loss to Montana State. Other result worth noting - a 28-14 win over Missouri S&T (Division II)

Jacksonville (4-1, 2-0 Pioneer) - defeated Old Dominion 35-25 on road, lone loss to Appalachian State on road (45-14) with a non-Div I win against Webber International (41-0).

Dayton (4-1, 2-0 Pioneer) - best win for a Pioneer favorite this year with 28-14 win at home against Robert Morris; followed the big win with a 35-31 loss at Duquesne, has a sub-Div I win against Central State (48-14).

[danefan]

Drake does not. The loss to Lehigh sealed the deal.

Dayton does dependent on how RMU does the rest of the year.

Jacksonville is questionable, but ODU has the chance to be a really strong win for Jville.

In a 16-team field I'd say no, but with the PL having zero at-large candidate I can see it happening this year.

A lot of things will have to happen, like the Big Sky playing themselves out of it, but its more likely this year than any other year to date.

But lets be honest here - Montana at 7-4 is getting in over Dayton at 10-1 every single time. $$$$$$

[danefan]

Oh and BTW its ridiculous that the PFL doesn't have an AQ while other leagues of equal caliber do.

[DFW HOYA]

For better or (mostly) worse, the Pioneer is persona non grata as the MAAC once was. Georgetown (and later, Duquesne) would ring up nine win seasons and the playoffs ignored them.

[PantherRob82]

Oh and BTW its ridiculous that the PFL doesn't have an AQ while other leagues of equal caliber do.

Have they applied for one? Have they really proved their of the same caliber as other leagues?

Maybe they've shown something about the NEC.

Jacksonville's performance against App State is what most people would consider the most telling thing about the PFL.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

Have they applied for one? Have they really proved their of the same caliber as other leagues?

Maybe they've shown something about the NEC.

Jacksonville's performance against App State is what most people would consider the most telling thing about the PFL.

The PFL overall shows greater talent and strength than the MEAC. The MEAC should lose their AQ, and the PFL should gain one.

[aceinthehole]

Few comments:

- The PFL is deserving of an AQ bid - if they request one. Until this year, they had never applied for the AQ and never publicly indicated an interest in the playoffs. In fact, the commish (Patty V) had rebuked they idea of the playoffs just a few years ago.

- The NEC was denied MULTIPLE times for a AQ after a formal application process. They "scheduled up" and made their case based on NCAA criteria. Former NEC Commisiner Brenda Weare deserves a lot of credit (along with NEC coaches) for getting the AQ.

- There is a huge difference between an AQ bid and an at-large. An AQ is a ENTITLEMENT to a conference champ who meets the NCAA criteria. An at-large is granted to the best available teams. Its very hard to argue a PFL team with 1 mediocore win and a heavy sub-D-I schedule is worthy of an at-large bid..

- I really don't see a pontenial PFL at large candidate, althought Dayton would be an fine representaive of the league, if they had an AQ.

[danefan]

Have they applied for one? Have they really proved their of the same caliber as other leagues?

Maybe they've shown something about the NEC.

Jacksonville's performance against App State is what most people would consider the most telling thing about the PFL.


They have applied for one.

There are large number of full scholarship teams that couuldn't put 21 up on App State.

Sans the random anomly (SCST this year, Colgate 2003, etc..) the winner of the NEC, PFL, PL, MEAC and Big South will all be about equal in most years, including this one. The PFL is the only one that won't be playing Thanksgiving weekend.

And as Ace says above - don't confuse AQs with At-larges. Apples and oranges.

[TheValleyRaider]

But lets be honest here - Montana at 7-4 is getting in over Dayton at 10-1 every single time. $$$$$$

Not this year's 7-4 Montana team. They'd only have 6 D-I wins once you drop their opening win over D-II Western State. If that really were the conversation, 10-1 Dayton should get in. Though, rarely is it such a clear-cut decision xreadx

[danefan]

Not this year's 7-4 Montana team. They'd only have 6 D-I wins once you drop their opening win over D-II Western State. If that really were the conversation, 10-1 Dayton should get in. Though, rarely is it such a clear-cut decision xreadx

Bad example I guess, but I actually wouldn't be surpsised if they took Montana even with 6 DI wins over a 10-1 PFL team. the 7-win "guideline" will be tested in this expanded playoffs. And you know you can't count out the NCAA when a decision means more $$$$ for the NCAA.

[LouiseBFree]

Realism clearly states NO PFL team is worthy of an at-large berth.

[UAalum72]

Not this year's 7-4 Montana team. They'd only have 6 D-I wins once you drop their opening win over D-II Western State. If that really were the conversation, 10-1 Dayton should get in. Though, rarely is it such a clear-cut decision xreadx

If you think it'd make a difference, a 10-1 Dayton team will have only nine D-I wins this year.

[Go...gate]

Oh and BTW its ridiculous that the PFL doesn't have an AQ while other leagues of equal caliber do.

Agreed.

[WestCoastAggie]

The PFL overall shows greater talent and strength than the MEAC. The MEAC should lose their AQ, and the PFL should gain one.

You do know that the MEAC is a stronger conference than the PFL according to the Sagarin, Maslow & Self Computer ratings, right? xeyebrowx

xnonono2x

[WestCoastAggie]

As long as the PFL can get their Conf. Winner into the Top 20 of the Modified GPI that the Selection Committee will use in determining At-Large teams, then they will be fine.

[PantherRob82]

The PFL overall shows greater talent and strength than the MEAC. The MEAC should lose their AQ, and the PFL should gain one.

SC State has been more competitive with App State than Jacksonville...so comparing conference champs with the same opponent (that happens to be high level).

[BlueHenSinfonian]

You do know that the MEAC is a stronger conference than the PFL according to the Sagarin, Maslow & Self Computer ratings, right? xeyebrowx

xnonono2x

Maybe, but the PFL seems to be on an upswing, and the MEAC is stagnant if not trending downward. When is the last time a MEAC team made it past the first round of the playoffs? I'm not saying that the PFL is lighting the world on fire either, but I see a rosier future for them than the MEAC.

As I've said, SC State looks good this year, and has been building up recently, and FAMU has had some limited success in the past, but overall the conference doesn't seem strong enough to warrant an AQ every year.

[JUDolphins]

I think everyone is discounting how good Old Dominion is and that JU won on the road. I was fortunate enough to make the trip up and that was a tremendous atmosphere and is one of the best in country.

The Appy State game was a lot closer than the score indicates. JU was right there with ASU midway thru the 3rd quarter and the place was dead silent until picked up three straight 3rd down conversions.

Say what you want about the PFL, but the best teams in the PFL are certainly playoff caliber - as evidenced by the PFL rep winning 3 of the 4 Gridiron Classics against the NEC champ (and JU was the only loss, playing on the frozen tundra in Albany).

I would put JU up against anyone in the Big South right now and dare say they might could win that league.

[achrist70]

In my opinion does the PFL deserve an auto-bid no? There is just not the depth of talent in that league to warrant one. I base this on what I have saw with the UNI Drake matchups. Drake has been successful in the PFL but in comparison to UNI the players are no where as Big, Strong, or Fast as those at UNI.

Now I think that the champion should receive a fair look for an at large bid each year. The fairest way to do this is put in game film of the Pioneer League champ and that of the last team to receive an at large bid. Film doesn't lie if is pretty easy to tell whether or not the team is deserving.

I still think that a 6th-8th place team in a conference like the CAA or Valley is better than any team in the PFL though.

[blukeys]

In my opinion does the PFL deserve an auto-bid no? There is just not the depth of talent in that league to warrant one. I base this on what I have saw with the UNI Drake matchups. Drake has been successful in the PFL but in comparison to UNI the players are no where as Big, Strong, or Fast as those at UNI.

Now I think that the champion should receive a fair look for an at large bid each year. The fairest way to do this is put in game film of the Pioneer League champ and that of the last team to receive an at large bid. Film doesn't lie if is pretty easy to tell whether or not the team is deserving.

I still think that a 6th-8th place team in a conference like the CAA or Valley is better than any team in the PFL though.

You are correct. I don't have any problem considering at large possibliities for the PFL. Many made such a case for San Diego during the Josh Johnson era.

The AQ issue would require yet another Playoff expansion. (Something I predicted.) If someone wants to make a case that any particular conference needs to give up an AQ due to recent poor playoff performance then we should go at it. If one wants to make the arguement that as a conference the PFL is more worthy of an AQ than the MEAC, OVC, Patriot League, Big South, or NEC then I'd like to see it.

[danefan]

You are correct. I don't have any problem considering at large possibliities for the PFL. Many made such a case for San Diego during the Josh Johnson era.

The AQ issue would require yet another Playoff expansion. (Something I predicted.) If someone wants to make a case that any particular conference needs to give up an AQ due to recent poor playoff performance then we should go at it. If one wants to make the arguement that as a conference the PFL is more worthy of an AQ than the MEAC, OVC, Patriot League, Big South, or NEC then I'd like to see it.

Why do they have to be more worthy? That's not the NCAA's criteria for post season access in any sport. They have followed every single mandate ever laid down by the NCAA.

And the expansion for the PFL is limited at most. Adding another game to the opening round an one additional at-large for a major conference does nothing siginificant to the 20-team playoffs that beings this year.

[Big Al]

Let the PFL in and rewrite the bylaws so we don't have to have 50% at-large teams in the playoffs. Shrink it back to 16 teams, with 5 at-large.

Yeah, some conferences get butchered every year in the playoffs but how is that any different than March Madness?

[JUDolphins]

I said it earlier - the top teams in the PFL are playoff worthy. Look back at the league champions over the last few years and they all would be able to play with the teams that would comprise the first round matchups.

Is the PFL ready to play with the top 5 in the country? No. Is the Big South/MEAC/OVC/NEC reps ready? I don't think so. But, they are definitely worth of an automatic qualifier - especially since the PFL champ won 3 of the 4 bowl games against the NEC champ.

Expanding the playoffs to 22 teams isn't a bad thing. Heck, make it an even 24 and it creates a great incentive to make the top 8 and get a bye.

[aceinthehole]

The AQ is an ENTITLEMENT of the PFL! If they ask for it, they should get it - after waiting 3 years like the NEC did ;)

JU and Dayton have good teams, but it would be hard for them to be move to the top-20 for at-large consideration.

[heath]

Maybe with the PFL so spread out,its only a matter of time before teams leave and find conferences closer to home. Maybe thats the NCAAs concern on giving them the AQ. Campbell to San Diego is a hike.

[heath]

Jacksonville and Dayton COULD both go 10-1,don't think they both go to playoffs and since they don't play each other this year,what would happen?Both have a quality win early but that loss to Duquense by Dayton much worse than the App ST loss of Jacksonville.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Jacksonville and Dayton COULD both go 10-1,don't think they both go to playoffs and since they don't play each other this year,what would happen?Both have a quality win early but that loss to Duquense by Dayton much worse than the App ST loss of Jacksonville.

That stinks that Dayton and Jacksonville could both be undefeated in the PFL, and they'd be co-champs. They deserve a true champion.

As for the Duquesne loss dooming Dayton, it's still too early to say. The Dukes still might win the NEC - in which case, by the end of the year they'd have a loss to a playoff team. Not as strong as a loss to probable playoff team Appalachian State, but stronger than people who just disregard the NEC automatically might think.

I think the only two possibilities for PFL at-larges are Dayton and Jacksonville, and they'll have to run the table to get a shot at it. History shows that doing that in the PFL is harder than most realize, and that one - or both - will have 9-2 records, thus probably putting them below the threshold for at-large inclusion.

What's the rule on D-I wins these days? Can you have 6 D-I wins and still get consideration? Or is 7 still the cutoff? Haven't done the math, but that might make a difference, too.

[danefan]

A realistic way to evaluate the PFL at-large potential is by simply using the formula the NCAA has in place for the "bridge AQ" for conferences that don't currently have an AQ:

2 wins versus teams from conferences with an AQ
8 DI wins
Average ranking of 20 or higher in the TSN polls, Coaches poll, and Modified GPI (4 computer rankings, no AGS poll included).

The NCAA has to give the winner of the PFL a bid if they meet that requirement. Is is highly unlikely (or dare I say impossible) for the winner to get an at-large without meeting that requirement.

In the case of the PFL, the polls don't matter this year.

Dayton cannot meet that requirement because of the loss to RMU (they won't have two wins over AQ teams).
Jacksonville has the same problem because of their loss to App State.

That's the problem with scheduling a DII like both Jacksonville and Dayton did.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

A realistic way to evaluate the PFL at-large potential is by simply using the formula the NCAA has in place for the "bridge AQ" for conferences that don't currently have an AQ:

2 wins versus teams from conferences with an AQ
8 DI wins
Average ranking of 20 or higher in the TSN polls, Coaches poll, and Modified GPI (4 computer rankings, no AGS poll included).

The NCAA has to give the winner of the PFL a bid if they meet that requirement. Is is highly unlikely (or dare I say impossible) for the winner to get an at-large without meeting that requirement.

In the case of the PFL, the polls don't matter this year.

Dayton cannot meet that requirement because of the loss to RMU (they won't have two wins over AQ teams).
Jacksonville has the same problem because of their loss to App State.

That's the problem with scheduling a DII like both Jacksonville and Dayton did.

I see. That implies, however, that the cutoff is still 7 D-I wins. The question then becomes: will there be enough teams with enough D-I wins to qualify, and could a 10-1 Jacksonville or a 9-2 Dayton get in that way?

How many D-I wins will the other AQ conference have?

CAA teams tend to knock each other out. They might still get 4 at-larges anyway, however.

SoCon? One, definitely, could be 2.

Big Sky? Will probably get 1 at-large, maybe 2.

MVC? Anyone's guess, but it's a down year. Say it's 1.

Southland? Not looking like a good at-large year for them. Say it's 1.

Patriot? Best case scenario, 1. More likely, 0.

OVC? 0 or (best case scenario) 1 (either Jacksonville State or SEMO).

MEAC? Wild card. Maybe 1, if B-CU has a great year?

NEC? Guessing 0.

Big South? Best case scenario: 1.

Independents/SWAC non-champions? 0. There's literally nobody.

In the rosiest of scenarios, there are 13 non-PFL at-large teams in all of FCS competing for 10 slots. Could I see the Big South having 0 qualifiers? Yes. Can I see the MVC having 0 qualifiers? Yes. Can I see the MEAC having 0 qualifiers? Yes. Can I see 3 CAA at-larges instead of 4? Yes. Can I see 0 qualifiers from the Big Sky? Yes.

So assuming the cutoff is still 7 D-I wins, a team like Jacksonville still has a lot of hope. Stuff needs to happen, and they need to win out pretty much, but I think there are scenarios where they are in.

[danefan]

I see. That implies, however, that the cutoff is still 7 D-I wins. The question then becomes: will there be enough teams with enough D-I wins to qualify, and could a 10-1 Jacksonville or a 9-2 Dayton get in that way?

How many D-I wins will the other AQ conference have?

CAA teams tend to knock each other out. They might still get 4 at-larges anyway, however.

SoCon? One, definitely, could be 2.

Big Sky? Will probably get 1 at-large, maybe 2.

MVC? Anyone's guess, but it's a down year. Say it's 1.

Southland? Not looking like a good at-large year for them. Say it's 1.

Patriot? Best case scenario, 1. More likely, 0.

OVC? 0 or (best case scenario) 1 (either Jacksonville State or SEMO).

MEAC? Wild card. Maybe 1, if B-CU has a great year?

NEC? Guessing 0.

Big South? Best case scenario: 1.

Independents/SWAC non-champions? 0. There's literally nobody.

In the rosiest of scenarios, there are 13 non-PFL at-large teams in all of FCS competing for 10 slots. Could I see the Big South having 0 qualifiers? Yes. Can I see the MVC having 0 qualifiers? Yes. Can I see the MEAC having 0 qualifiers? Yes. Can I see 3 CAA at-larges instead of 4? Yes. Can I see 0 qualifiers from the Big Sky? Yes.

So assuming the cutoff is still 7 D-I wins, a team like Jacksonville still has a lot of hope. Stuff needs to happen, and they need to win out pretty much, but I think there are scenarios where they are in.

I still think its a near impossibility for the PFL to get in if they don't meet the bridge standards.

Plus don't forget Cal Poly out of the Great West. If they win out they meet the Bridge AQ and if they lose one game I still think they're in with 7 DI wins.

BTW, the Southland is almost a near lock for an at-large this year. Texas State and SFA are both very good. And the PL has a zero chance of an at-large this year. Its almost laughable to suggest it.

I think the PFL champion would be a competitive team in the opening round and could put up a fight in the first round. But realistically speaking I think its near impossible for them to get an At-large.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I still think its a near impossibility for the PFL to get in if they don't meet the bridge standards.

Plus don't forget Cal Poly out of the Great West. If they win out they meet the Bridge AQ and if they lose one game I still think they're in with 7 DI wins.

BTW, the Southland is almost a near lock for an at-large this year. Texas State and SFA are both very good. And the PL has a zero chance of an at-large this year. Its almost laughable to suggest it.

My point wasn't to hype up the PL's at-large bona-fides - I agree, the chance is very low that both two teams run the table and get a 9-2 champion and an 8-3 at-large team - but that other team would have 8 D-I wins if that were the case. There are scenarios where any two teams of Colgate, Lehigh, Holy Cross or Georgetown run the table and get 8 D-I wins - and this was about getting to the magic number of D-I wins.

[danefan]

My point wasn't to hype up the PL's at-large bona-fides - I agree, the chance is very low that both two teams run the table and get a 9-2 champion and an 8-3 at-large team - but that other team would have 8 D-I wins if that were the case. There are scenarios where any two teams of Colgate, Lehigh, Holy Cross or Georgetown run the table and get 8 D-I wins - and this was about getting to the magic number of D-I wins.

Sorry missed that point. I thought you were looking at at-large candidates. What's the point at including teams with 8 DI wins that have zero chance at an at-large though (e.g. Colgate, Lehigh, Holy Cross or Georgetown).

7 wins is still the guideline as far as I know. And IMO and based on history, the committee is much more likely to take a 7 DI win team from a major conference then a 9 or 10 DI win team from the PFL.

That will hold especially true in this year of great parity in the major conferences (e.g. Big Sky and MVFC) and the expanded playoffs.

[WMTribe90]

I see. That implies, however, that the cutoff is still 7 D-I wins. The question then becomes: will there be enough teams with enough D-I wins to qualify, and could a 10-1 Jacksonville or a 9-2 Dayton get in that way?

How many D-I wins will the other AQ conference have?

CAA teams tend to knock each other out. They might still get 4 at-larges anyway, however.

SoCon? One, definitely, could be 2.

Big Sky? Will probably get 1 at-large, maybe 2.

MVC? Anyone's guess, but it's a down year. Say it's 1.

Southland? Not looking like a good at-large year for them. Say it's 1.

Patriot? Best case scenario, 1. More likely, 0.

OVC? 0 or (best case scenario) 1 (either Jacksonville State or SEMO).

MEAC? Wild card. Maybe 1, if B-CU has a great year?

NEC? Guessing 0.

Big South? Best case scenario: 1.

Independents/SWAC non-champions? 0. There's literally nobody.

In the rosiest of scenarios, there are 13 non-PFL at-large teams in all of FCS competing for 10 slots. Could I see the Big South having 0 qualifiers? Yes. Can I see the MVC having 0 qualifiers? Yes. Can I see the MEAC having 0 qualifiers? Yes. Can I see 3 CAA at-larges instead of 4? Yes. Can I see 0 qualifiers from the Big Sky? Yes.

So assuming the cutoff is still 7 D-I wins, a team like Jacksonville still has a lot of hope. Stuff needs to happen, and they need to win out pretty much, but I think there are scenarios where they are in.

Don't forget independent ODU if they finish 8-3 or 9-2 versus an all D-I schedule. They would be in the running if other conferences have a down year. Head to head loss vs Jacksonville hurts them, but I imagine they'd be ahead of Dayton.

[Dane96]

I dont believe ODU is eligible; isnt it two years of transition.

[Libertine]

I dont believe ODU is eligible; isnt it two years of transition.

ODU isn't transtioning. They were D1 before starting a program. They were eligible the second they kicked off their first game.

[nmatsen]

I have heard they were going to let the Pioneer schools into the D-III playoffs this year as at large teams. Drake at Mt. Union in the first round. Looks like its going to be another short post season for the Dogs.

[UAalum72]

I have heard they were going to let the Pioneer schools into the D-III playoffs this year as at large teams. Drake at Mt. Union in the first round. Looks like its going to be another short post season for the Dogs.
Don't believe everything you hear. This would have had to have been decided before the season started. Word of this would have been all over this board.

And that assumes you were serious about this and not just being a jerk.

[DetroitFlyer]

Don't believe everything you hear. This would have had to have been decided before the season started. Word of this would have been all over this board.

And that assumes you were serious about this and not just being a jerk.

It is a huge leap to make that assumption....

[nmatsen]

Oh, I was being a jerk. My bad. It is something that they should look into though.

[ValleyChamp]

lol

[PantherRob82]

If any PFL team was serious they would schedule for the bridge.

[DetroitFlyer]

If any PFL team was serious they would schedule for the bridge.

JU has played both App State and Old Dominion. Dayton has played both Robert Morris and Duquesne. Both teams that could win the NEC this year. Drake scheduled Lehigh and Montana State. Please, do yourself a favor and do some research before you make yourself look so much like a, well you know that other UNI fan....

[PantherRob82]

JU has played both App State and Old Dominion. Dayton has played both Robert Morris and Duquesne. Both teams that could win the NEC this year. Drake scheduled Lehigh and Montana State. Please, do yourself a favor and do some research before you make yourself look so much like a, well you know that other UNI fan....

Jacksonville played Old Dominion, but they are not in an AQ league, and then they got pounded by App.
Dayton played two lower AQ league teams and couldn't win them both.
Drake played two AQ league teams and lost both of them by two scores or more.

In my opinion, Dayton is the only team who really scheduled to get a possible bridge bid. They scheduled two winable AQ teams, but I'm not sure they would have ever gotten high enough in the polls. An undefeated Drake would have gotten in with their schedule.

Albany is the team to look to on how to schedule if you want in. They consistently scheduled themselves a chance to get in. Unfortunately they couldn't win those games.

If I'm Dayton, Jacksonville or anyone else who wants to be taken seriously I schedule 3 AQ games, no sub D-I and go out and get some wins.

Jacksonville should drop Webber, schedule someone from the Big South, App State if they want to see where they sit against the Top of the subdivision, and one more winable AQ game.

Dayton would have had a shot if they added a PL, NEC, OVC, or MVFC team instead of Central State.

Drake's schedule would have gotten them in if they could have won their games.

[JUDolphins]

Did you look at the box score of the App State game or just look at the score?

Go ask the ASU fans how quiet it was midway through the 3rd quarter after JU scored to make it 17-14.

The problem for JU was a young defense couldn't get ASU off the field on 3rd down.

As for scheduling for the bridge, that's easier said than done. Every team needs home games - that's why JU/Dayton both play one team down. That's not to say that will change in the future though.

I'll say this - if JU and/or Dayton go 10-1, it's going to be hard to justify not taking them in the playoffs. I don't care what league you play in, if you go 10-1, that's a very good football team.

And, I would be willing to say that JU/Dayton could play with anyone outside of the top 10 - which is who they would face in the first round game.

[ValleyChamp]

I'll say this - if JU and/or Dayton go 10-1, it's going to be hard to justify not taking them in the playoffs. I don't care what league you play in, if you go 10-1, that's a very good football team.

And, I would be willing to say that JU/Dayton could play with anyone outside of the top 10 - which is who they would face in the first round game.

please.

Its not hard to justify leaving them out. It is a vastly inferior league that, really, has never proven they can beat playoff caliber teams. Thats just the way it is.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

please.

Its not hard to justify leaving them out. It is a vastly inferior league that, really, has never proven they can beat playoff caliber teams. Thats just the way it is.

So is the MEAC, yet they continue to get the autobid. The winner of any 6+ member conference should get at least one member in the playoffs.

[PantherRob82]

Did you look at the box score of the App State game or just look at the score?

Go ask the ASU fans how quiet it was midway through the 3rd quarter after JU scored to make it 17-14.

The problem for JU was a young defense couldn't get ASU off the field on 3rd down.

As for scheduling for the bridge, that's easier said than done. Every team needs home games - that's why JU/Dayton both play one team down. That's not to say that will change in the future though.

I'll say this - if JU and/or Dayton go 10-1, it's going to be hard to justify not taking them in the playoffs. I don't care what league you play in, if you go 10-1, that's a very good football team.

And, I would be willing to say that JU/Dayton could play with anyone outside of the top 10 - which is who they would face in the first round game.

This is exactly abandons San Diego fans said for years, but every time they got a chance to prove themselves, they blew it.

[PantherRob82]

So is the MEAC, yet they continue to get the autobid. The winner of any 6+ member conference should get at least one member in the playoffs.

No one is arguing them getting an autobid. Not that I've seen in this thread at least.

[danefan]

No one is arguing them getting an autobid. Not that I've seen in this thread at least.

Its a line that seems to always get blurred when discussing the FPL at-large.

Its clear to me, right or wrong, that the committee is not going to put a team in the playoffs as an at-large from a lower-level conference unless they have proven themselves OOC. This is true even now for teams from the lower level conferences that don't win their league's AQ (e.g. MEAC, OVC, PL, etc......). And this position is even more solidified with the Bridge AQ that is in place. The NCAA has no reaosn to award an at-large to a team that does not meet the Bridge AQ.

When we start comparing resumes head-to-head in a few weeks then we'll see if they 0% chance increase to a 1 or 2% chance. Right now it doesn't look promising.

[JUDolphins]

The irony here in Jacksonville is that everyone is drooling over Old Dominion and the Dolphins went to their place and won the game.

I dare say that is as big a non-conference win as any potential at-large team has this season, save Cal Poly.

[emilimo701]

Let the PFL in and rewrite the bylaws so we don't have to have 50% at-large teams in the playoffs. Shrink it back to 16 teams, with 5 at-large.

Yeah, some conferences get butchered every year in the playoffs but how is that any different than March Madness?

you serious?

[emilimo701]

The irony here in Jacksonville is that everyone is drooling over Old Dominion and the Dolphins went to their place and won the game.

I dare say that is as big a non-conference win as any potential at-large team has this season, save Cal Poly.

mmhm william & mary too

[PantherRob82]

The irony here in Jacksonville is that everyone is drooling over Old Dominion and the Dolphins went to their place and won the game.

I dare say that is as big a non-conference win as any potential at-large team has this season, save Cal Poly.
Who's drooling over ODU? They're unranked and are no where near a playoff caliber team. They have a great fanbase and program, but beating them doesn't get you in the playoffs.

[UAalum72]

Obviously ODU is not a good team, they lost to Jacksonville. (so will go the thinking of a lot of voters)

The biggest problem with the Bridge is that top-20 ranking. For a non-AQ league, at least two of your three OOC games will have to be vs. teams in the top 20 already, you have to beat them, then hope their losses to you don't knock them out of the top 20.

It's probably easier to get an at-large as an independent than as champ of a 9-team non-AQ league. As an indy you've got at least a chance to schedule 6 or 7 top-30 teams.

[aceinthehole]

No one is arguing them getting an autobid. Not that I've seen in this thread at least.

I am! The PFL has the RIGHT to an AQ (if they apply)! However, I don't think any PFL team will have the SOS and results to be considered for an at-large selection.

[JUDolphins]

I know the PFL applied for AQ this summer - obviously too late to effect this season.

As for beating teams OOC that are playoff caliber - the PFL champ beat the NEC champ (which now has an AQ) in 3 of the 4 Gridiron Classic matchups.

Look at who might be the last team in the tournament right now - Chattanooga, New Hampshire, Elon...JU/Dayton can compete with those teams.

I'm not saying they can win the national title - but they can compete on a higher level than most of you give them credit.

Again, all of this is moot if JU/Dayton slip up once more in PFL play.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I don't deny that I can see Jacksonville getting screwed by the committee, but with the expanded field there has to be a better chance for JU to make it, largely due to the fact that there might barely be enough teams with 7 D-I wins. A 10-1 Jacksonville team should get in before a 6-5 UNH team every time.

ODU will only be a playoff team if they run the table. If they lose to Cal Poly this weekend their at-large resume is non-existent, and their schedule is actually worse than JUs if you take away that game, too. Savannah State and NC Central are cupcake games that are way easier than games vs. Dayton or Drake.

[danefan]

I know the PFL applied for AQ this summer - obviously too late to effect this season.

As for beating teams OOC that are playoff caliber - the PFL champ beat the NEC champ (which now has an AQ) in 3 of the 4 Gridiron Classic matchups.

Look at who might be the last team in the tournament right now - Chattanooga, New Hampshire, Elon...JU/Dayton can compete with those teams.

I'm not saying they can win the national title - but they can compete on a higher level than most of you give them credit.

Again, all of this is moot if JU/Dayton slip up once more in PFL play.

I agree with all you are saying except I'm telling you based on history and the existence of the Bridge AQ, the committee is very unlikely to reward weak OOC schedules with an at-large. It may not be "right" but it is what it is.

And I am hopeful that hte AQ is granted for the PFL. I that guaranteed playoffs access has sparked the NEC teams.

[PantherRob82]

I know the PFL applied for AQ this summer - obviously too late to effect this season.

As for beating teams OOC that are playoff caliber - the PFL champ beat the NEC champ (which now has an AQ) in 3 of the 4 Gridiron Classic matchups.

Look at who might be the last team in the tournament right now - Chattanooga, New Hampshire, Elon...JU/Dayton can compete with those teams.

I'm not saying they can win the national title - but they can compete on a higher level than most of you give them credit.

Again, all of this is moot if JU/Dayton slip up once more in PFL play.

We have yet to see if the NEC and Big South are competitve playoff teams. PFL can have an AQ, that's cool, but the PFL has not proven they can beat playoff caliber teams:

Since 2002(through 10/08/10):

-PFL is 10-34 against teams from AQ conferences (Only counting NEC and Big South this year).
-PFL outscored in these games 1512-674.
-In 10 wins, the opponents combined record: 22-59,
-The PFL has combined for 57 losses to sub D-I opponents since 2002.

Would be interesting to see their record against actual playoff teams. I believe the only win would be against Fordham who lost in the first round to UMass in 2007.

Like I said, I don't care if they get an AQ, but it's hard to argue for an at-large bid.

[JUDolphins]

One thing those number don't take into consideration is the top teams in the league. The bottom teams in our league are just not very good - and that's across the entire spectrum of college football.

I do think with an increased field, there is going to be a greater opportunity for an at-large bid for a PFL team to get in this year. I don't think anyone has a good grasp of what this 20-team field is going to look like until after a year of decisions have been made.

[PantherRob82]

One thing those number don't take into consideration is the top teams in the league. The bottom teams in our league are just not very good - and that's across the entire spectrum of college football.

I do think with an increased field, there is going to be a greater opportunity for an at-large bid for a PFL team to get in this year. I don't think anyone has a good grasp of what this 20-team field is going to look like until after a year of decisions have been made.

I don't have any issues with JU, Dayton, or any other team in the PFL, but don't think that an OOC win against ODU, Getting beat by 4 TDs at App State and then running the table in the PFL will get you in.

[DetroitFlyer]

I don't have any issues with JU, Dayton, or any other team in the PFL, but don't think that an OOC win against ODU, Getting beat by 4 TDs at App State and then running the table in the PFL will get you in.

What prompted this discussion in the first place was the thought that maybe the PFL champion should get in over a second place team in the OVC, MEAC, NEC, PL, etc. A 10-1 PFL team, even with only 9 FCS wins, should garner some serious consideration against those possibilities.

[Appfan_in_CAAland]

.....maybe the PFL champion should get in over a second place team in the OVC, MEAC, NEC, PL, etc.

I wouldn't bet on a second place team from those conferences getting in either, unless the win count becomes a factor.

[PantherRob82]

What prompted this discussion in the first place was the thought that maybe the PFL champion should get in over a second place team in the OVC, MEAC, NEC, PL, etc. A 10-1 PFL team, even with only 9 FCS wins, should garner some serious consideration against those possibilities.

I would take Dayton or JU over the 2nd place from the MEAC, NEC or PL. The 2nd team from the OVC would still be my preference this year (never thought I'd say that)

[BlueHenSinfonian]

I'd say the playoff should look like this, in no particular order:

1. CAA auto
2. CAA at large
3. CAA at large
4. CAA at large
5. SoCon auto
6. SoCon at large
7. SoCon at large
8. Big Sky auto
9. Big Sky at large
10. MVC auto
11. MVC at large
12. OVC auto
13. Southland auto
14. PL auto
15. NEC auto
16. Big South auto
17. MEAC Auto
18. PFL auto
19. OVC at large
20. CAA at large

those last two spots i'm fuzzy on, but it seems like there is plenty of room this year for a PFL team

[PantherRob82]

I'd say the playoff should look like this, in no particular order:

1. CAA auto
2. CAA at large
3. CAA at large
4. CAA at large
5. SoCon auto
6. SoCon at large
7. SoCon at large
8. Big Sky auto
9. Big Sky at large
10. MVC auto
11. MVC at large
12. OVC auto
13. Southland auto
14. PL auto
15. NEC auto
16. Big South auto
17. MEAC Auto
18. PFL auto
19. OVC at large
20. CAA at large

those last two spots i'm fuzzy on, but it seems like there is plenty of room this year for a PFL team

I'm not sure we'll get an at-large. :( When was the last time the MVFC/Gateway didn't get an at-large?

[TexasTerror]

I'd say the playoff should look like this, in no particular order:

1. CAA auto
2. CAA at large
3. CAA at large
4. CAA at large
5. SoCon auto
6. SoCon at large
7. SoCon at large
8. Big Sky auto
9. Big Sky at large
10. MVC auto
11. MVC at large
12. OVC auto
13. Southland auto
14. PL auto
15. NEC auto
16. Big South auto
17. MEAC Auto
18. PFL auto
19. OVC at large
20. CAA at large

those last two spots i'm fuzzy on, but it seems like there is plenty of room this year for a PFL team

SFA and at least one other team from the SLC - looking like TXST - will qualify. There's plenty of wins left on the board for both and each is well-positioned to compete for a playoff spot.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

I'm not sure we'll get an at-large. :( When was the last time the MVFC/Gateway didn't get an at-large?

I'm not saying it will look like that, just a sort of 'in a perfect world' type of deal for this season. I think WIU and UNI will both get playoff berths this year. In all likelihood the PFL and Big South will get snubbed when it comes to the playoffs, and possibly the NEC as well depending on how Robert Morris ends up the season. I'm not familiar enough with the SLC to call whether they should get one spot or two. Personally, I think SFA is the most overrated school in the polls right now, but we'll see as the season progresses.

[Syntax Error]

Common knowledge; the PFL applied for an AQ this year, were turned down, but they will enjoy the same "bridge AQ" that others have used in the past.

[TexasTerror]

Personally, I think SFA is the most overrated school in the polls right now, but we'll see as the season progresses.

If SFA keeps winning, they may be "overrated" - but they'll have the solid record deserving of a seed. They've beaten teams from the NEC and MVFC. Not bad for the SLC!


Common knowledge; the PFL applied for an AQ this year, were turned down, but they will enjoy the same "bridge AQ" that others have used in the past.

How realistic is it for the Pioneer to qualify for the bridge? Have any teams in the history of the Pioneer been situated where they would have gotten in?

[PantherRob82]

SFA and at least one other team from the SLC - looking like TXST - will qualify. There's plenty of wins left on the board for both and each is well-positioned to compete for a playoff spot.

Tx St didn't look good today.

[PantherRob82]

I'm not saying it will look like that, just a sort of 'in a perfect world' type of deal for this season. I think WIU and UNI will both get playoff berths this year. In all likelihood the PFL and Big South will get snubbed when it comes to the playoffs, and possibly the NEC as well depending on how Robert Morris ends up the season. I'm not familiar enough with the SLC to call whether they should get one spot or two. Personally, I think SFA is the most overrated school in the polls right now, but we'll see as the season progresses.

UNI needs to win out or win the auto.

[PantherRob82]

Common knowledge; the PFL applied for an AQ this year, were turned down, but they will enjoy the same "bridge AQ" that others have used in the past.

Do you have a link for them being turned down? I never saw that. That's disappointing. I've never liked the idea of them having an at-large, but think they should get an autobid.

[Monarch Nation]

Who's drooling over ODU? They're unranked and are no where near a playoff caliber team. They have a great fanbase and program, but beating them doesn't get you in the playoffs.

We (ODU) are not a playoff caliber team. We are a second year team that is gearing up to play in arguably the toughest FCS league. If Jacksonville comes to Foreman Field and beats us two or three years from now then they may have an argument. Right now, we are at best on the low end of the CAA.