Sagarin's Ratings

[darell1976]

http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cfsend.htm

James Madison #37 in the nation!!



UND #175!!!!

[Redbirdz]

Appalachian State #100
William & Mary #101
Jacksonville State #102

[URMite]

Although I don't put much faith in Sagarin at this point in the season, here is a better sample of FCS ratings:

37 James Madison
69 Villanova
72 Massachusetts
84 Richmond
92 Delaware
93 Furman
95 North Dakota State
96 Harvard
98 Eastern Washington
100 Appalachian State
101 William & Mary
102 Jacksonville State
107 Stephen F. Austin
110 Northern Iowa
122 Elon
123 Montana
124 Georgia Southern
125 Illinois State
126 Northern Arizona
128 New Hampshire
130 Sacramento State
131 Pennsylvania
132 South Dakota
133 Cal Poly-SLO
134 Youngstown State
136 Texas State

[JMUNJ08]

Only 5 of the top 5 FCS teams are from the CAA???

[darell1976]

Although I don't put much faith in Sagarin at this point in the season, here is a better sample of FCS ratings:

37 James Madison
69 Villanova
72 Massachusetts
84 Richmond
92 Delaware
93 Furman
95 North Dakota State
96 Harvard
98 Eastern Washington
100 Appalachian State
101 William & Mary
102 Jacksonville State
107 Stephen F. Austin
110 Northern Iowa
122 Elon
123 Montana
124 Georgia Southern
125 Illinois State
126 Northern Arizona
128 New Hampshire
130 Sacramento State
131 Pennsylvania
132 South Dakota
133 Cal Poly-SLO
134 Youngstown State
136 Texas State

Its wierd to see South Dakota and not South Dakota State. This could be the year for the Yotes.

[OL FU]

Only 5 of the top 5 FCS teams are from the CAA???

That's true and if you believe Sagarin right now. we might as well stop playing and hand you the crown.xwhistlex

[darell1976]

Is there a better ratings to follow? I have heard this is kindof a joke.

[Side Judge]

How is Montana ranked higher than Cal-Poly?

[darell1976]

How is Montana ranked higher than Cal-Poly?

Because Montana beat a tough Western State team and the Cal Poly game was exhibition.xlolx

[UNH Fanboi]

How is Montana ranked higher than Cal-Poly?

Because the computer's formula doesn't automatically give Team A more points than Team B just because Team A beat Team B once. In the early weeks, any computer rating system has to use starting values that are based on previous seasons' results. So Montana was rated very high and Cal-Poly was rate very low and one game is not enough to make up that point differential. If I got really lucky and beat Gary Kasparov in a chess match, my rating wouldn't magically skyrocket over his. It's really not that complicated.

[Cocky]

How is Montana ranked higher than Cal-Poly?

Because the Human element is in computers, too. The ranking or no more than a human poll as they have assigned value in the beginning which skew the results.

[OL FU]

Because the Human element is in computers, too. The ranking or no more than a human poll as they have assigned value in the beginning which skew the results.

I think at the end of the season Sagarin does alright, but hell by then so do most human polls. The biggest problem is strength of schedule. Furman is a good example. We had a good game against a flat number 14 in the country. Doesn't mean we didn't play good but I can tell you we probably got a good kick from playing South Carolina. While a flat JSU got kicked in the head for barely beating Ga STate. Like I said, by the end of the season it generally works out.

[VUCats02]

Who would have ever thought JMU would be ranked higher than Miami (of Florida) in any type of college football ratings?

[heath]

Who would have ever thought JMU would be ranked higher than Miami (of Florida) in any type of college football ratings?

Nobody round here,but if JMU plays THE "U" 100 times they might win 5 or 6, If JMU plays VT 100 times they might win 5 or 6, thats why they play the game. The best team on that day usually wins. Ratings are OVER-rated.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

Nobody round here,but if JMU plays THE "U" 100 times they might win 5 or 6, If JMU plays VT 100 times they might win 5 or 6, thats why they play the game. The best team on that day usually wins. Ratings are OVER-rated.

The U isn't what it used to be, and neither is VT. If you had said the same about Alabama, Florida, Ohio State or USC, I might go with it, but I think a top notch CAA or SoCon team could take out a Big East or ACC team at least 30% of the time.

[heath]

Big East maybe,.... Duke ,UVA ,BC NC State, Maryland,Wake 30%, Clemson,UNC, FSU, 10%, GT, "U", VT, 5% .BTW, don't even try comparing the SoCon to the CAA. Other than ASU, not really a valid point.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

Big East maybe,.... Duke ,UVA ,BC NC State, Maryland,Wake 30%, Clemson,UNC, FSU, 10%, GT, "U", VT, 5% .BTW, don't even try comparing the SoCon to the CAA. Other than ASU, not really a valid point.

Eh, maybe we are both thinking about some other teams from their glory years. UNC hasn't been a football powerhouse anytime recently, and I think W&M stands a good chance to take them down when they play later this year. The U has been better, but is still a far cry from what it once was. The SoCon is still the second highest rated FCS conference by Sagarin, but a lot of that is probably ASU as you said. GSU was a force to be reckoned with not too long ago though.

EDIT: Well, Miami is pretty good, just inconsistent. Florida has too many FBS schools, creating too much competition from the (admittedly very good) in state recruiting pool. UF, FSU, and the U take the lions share of the good players coming out of high school, but even having to do a three way split must hurt them. UCF and USF can pick over some of the leftovers, but FIU and FAU are left out in the cold. FAU and FIU should really drop down to FCS, and along with FAMU, Bethune-Cookman, and Jacksonville, you'd have an all Florida conference.

[OL FU]

Eh, maybe we are both thinking about some other teams from their glory years. UNC hasn't been a football powerhouse anytime recently, and I think W&M stands a good chance to take them down when they play later this year. The U has been better, but is still a far cry from what it once was. The SoCon is still the second highest rated FCS conference by Sagarin, but a lot of that is probably ASU as you said. GSU was a force to be reckoned with not too long ago though.



Er no. Sagarin has Furman rated number one in the SoCon. Now not that I believe it, just sayin' your premise is wrong

[tribefan40]

UNC hasn't been a football powerhouse anytime recently, and I think W&M stands a good chance to take them down when they play later this year.

xsmhx

[darell1976]

Updated! UND #165!!!

[Twentysix]

Updated! UND #165!!!

86 Idaho A = 65.87 2 2 61.81( 114) 0 0 | 0 1 | 62.07 105 | 69.69 77
87 Louisville A = 65.76 1 2 68.78( 56) 0 0 | 0 0 | 63.16 101 | 68.14 83
88 Appalachian State AA = 65.54 4 0 49.16( 193) 0 0 | 0 0 | 67.49 79 | 63.31 96
89 Northern Illinois A = 65.07 2 2 66.21( 83) 0 0 | 0 0 | 65.60 89 | 64.17 92
90 North Dakota State AA = 64.84 3 1 56.09( 158) 0 0 | 0 0 | 65.92 87 | 63.40 95

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

86 Idaho A = 65.87 2 2 61.81( 114) 0 0 | 0 1 | 62.07 105 | 69.69 77
87 Louisville A = 65.76 1 2 68.78( 56) 0 0 | 0 0 | 63.16 101 | 68.14 83
88 Appalachian State AA = 65.54 4 0 49.16( 193) 0 0 | 0 0 | 67.49 79 | 63.31 96
89 Northern Illinois A = 65.07 2 2 66.21( 83) 0 0 | 0 0 | 65.60 89 | 64.17 92
90 North Dakota State AA = 64.84 3 1 56.09( 158) 0 0 | 0 0 | 65.92 87 | 63.40 95


...oh, darell1976 says USD is not as tough as first thought.......Yotes should beat Sue in Vermillion.....just wait for his comment....

[Syntax Error]

Is there a better ratings to follow? I have heard this is kindof a joke.

GPI: http://www.collegesportingnews.com/entry.php?89-GPI-Once-Again-to-Measure-FCS-for-Playoffs

[MR. CHICKEN]

[QUOTE=darell1976;1556389]http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cfsend.htm

James Madison #37 in the nation!!

NOT TA QUIBBLE......OL' JEFF....HAS JMU @ #36......UCLA #37.........AN' U-CLA-FRAN & OLLIE....BEAT TEXAS....JES' SAYIN'.......xtwocentsx....AWK!

[HensRock]

Check the date. This is a thread from LAST WEEK, when JMU indeed was #37. THey have moved up a slot.

[superman7515]

5 of the top 7 from Sagarin are in the CAA:

JMU #36
Delaware #66
Villanova #72
UMass #84
App St #88
NDSU #90
W&M #92

[MR. CHICKEN]

Check the date. This is a thread from LAST WEEK, when JMU indeed was #37. THey have moved up a slot.

YEAH.......DUH DATE WAS LAST WEEK...AN' LINK PROVIDED...ON SAID DATE.....SAYS #36......ALL-DOUGH AH DIDN'T NOTICE ...IT'S UPGRADED TA INCLUDE GAMES THRU 9/25...:o...AWK!

[Twentysix]

YEAH.......DUH DATE WAS LAST WEEK...AN' LINK PROVIDED...ON SAID DATE.....SAYS #36......ALL-DOUGH AH DIDN'T NOTICE ...IT'S UPGRADED TA INCLUDE GAMES THRU 9/25...:o...AWK!

Can i make you into sweet and sour chicken?

[Squealofthepig]

Wait wait wait... are there CAA fans now drinking the Sagarin Kool-Aid? Say it ain't so!

(In past years, this has been ridiculed for a very loose correlation between human rankings and computer rankings).

To be fair, this year, at least early, this seems to at least be somewhat in-line with voters. Lots of respect for the CAA and some also-rans. It's a shame that FCS teams aren't eligible for bowl games (once knocked out of the playoffs); would be a hoot seeing playoff-caliber FCS teams take on the #6 or #7 Big Ten/ACC teams (other than when the Valley and ACC beat them in regular season, of course).

[Twentysix]

Wait wait wait... are there CAA fans now drinking the Sagarin Kool-Aid? Say it ain't so!

(In past years, this has been ridiculed for a very loose correlation between human rankings and computer rankings).

To be fair, this year, at least early, this seems to at least be somewhat in-line with voters. Lots of respect for the CAA and some also-rans. It's a shame that FCS teams aren't eligible for bowl games (once knocked out of the playoffs); would be a hoot seeing playoff-caliber FCS teams take on the #6 or #7 Big Ten/ACC teams (other than when the Valley and ACC beat them in regular season, of course).

That would be admitting FCS football is often times better than big name schools that arent producing. To your average football rube FCS football is division 2 and North Texas should beat them with a 3 player handycap 100% of the time.

When i listened to the radio on the way out of Kansas back to KC not a single person who called in knew there was such a thing as the FCS. Including the ESPN talkshow host out of lawerence.

It made my girlfriend and I wonder if they are so dense they believe Division 2 teams can play in march madness. (As NDSU played KU in basketball 2 years before the football game and kept it rather competitive)

[Squealofthepig]

That would be admitting FCS football is often times better than big name schools that arent producing. To your average football rube FCS football is division 2 and North Texas should beat them with a 3 player handycap 100% of the time.

When i listened to the radio on the way out of Kansas back to KC not a single person who called in knew there was such a thing as the FCS. Including the ESPN talkshow host out of lawerence.

It made my girlfriend and I wonder if they are so dense they believe Division 2 teams can play in march madness. (As NDSU played KU in basketball 2 years before the football game and kept it rather competitive)

To be fair, Kansas is a black hole in the FCS nation. Missouri is quite similar - outside of a solid fanbase in Springfield for MSU, I-AA/FCS is a completely alien concept, like irrational numbers or a polite Frenchman. It differs state-to-state (Montana, the Northeast and mid-Atlantic all have much better knowledge of FCS in general, along with patches of the gulf coast).

Many FBS programs are jokes (e.g., ESPN's Bottom 10); many FCS programs have rabid followings and a knowledgeable fanbase. The bottom of even the Big Six conferences would have a very hard time beating the upper echelon of the FCS, especially away from home. You're not going to see Indiana agreeing to play AT Youngstown State - they could actually lose!

[rufus]

Sagarin ratings are a little questionable this early in the season, as they factor in starting ratings, but are still an interesting point of reference.

Anyone else notice that JMU is #13 in ELO_CHESS? That's the rating that ignores score margin, and is used by the BCS. There is a massive disparity between our ELO_CHESS and predictor right now. The predictor puts JMU and Delaware extremely close, predicting a 5-point JMU win at Bridgeforth or a 1-point Delaware win at the Tub. Should be a good game in Harrisonburg on Saturday, assuming JMU finds an offense.

[darell1976]

...oh, darell1976 says USD is not as tough as first thought.......Yotes should beat Sue in Vermillion.....just wait for his comment....

We haven't lost to them in Vermillion since 2005, and we are very familiar with them but they beat Minnesota which anyone could beat, they got thumped by UCF and NDSU and beat a D2 team. It should be a good game, of course you would say USD should be us, if you were to say UND should win a game the world would end.