Memorial Day Weekend Playoff Prognostications

[TexasTerror]

I know that I get ripped for doing these all throughout the season, but I thought it would be to try to come up with a bracket for the new 20-team playoff system that would be getting underway this coming year.

Perhaps I can do this every month heading up to the season based on potential transfers, injuries, etc OR in Villanova's case - losing a certain championship game MVP.

Please note - that this round of bracketing (namely the seeding) was based on looking at my preseason poll and some of the others who I thought had decent brackets.

First off - did I get all the rules right?

Secondly - rip it up! You know you want to...especially since I got two MEAC teams in and only one from the OVC!

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Villanova
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: South Dakota State
Northeast: Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Weber State, Eastern Washington
Colonial: William & Mary, New Hampshire, Richmond
MEAC: Florida A&M
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa
Southern: Elon
Southland: Southeastern Louisiana

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Southeastern Louisiana @ Florida A&M
Lafayette @ Richmond
Central Connecticut State @ New Hampshire
Liberty @ South Carolina State

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Lafayette/Richmond winner @ #1 Villanova
Eastern Washington @ Northern Iowa

Liberty/SCST winner @ #4 William & Mary
Weber State @ Appalachian State

CCSU/UNH winner @ #3 Stephen F Austin
Eastern Illinois @ Southern Illinois

Elon @ South Dakota State
SLU/FAMU winner @ #2 Montana

[appfan2008]

I like where you have ASU so I am all good with it!

[Redwyn]

SBU...despite being the defending conference champs...is once again the underdog...

I can dig that - I love surprises :) :) :)

[TexasTerror]

SBU...despite being the defending conference champs...is once again the underdog...

Hard not to buy into the Liberty hype...

I think more are familiar with Liberty being in the Big South and continuing to progress than Stony Brook being there...

[Squealofthepig]

I think we'll have a dark horse in the CAA this year - maybe Delaware? But can't complain with those pics.

I'd love to say Elon wins the Southern this year, but looks like the schedule will be in App's favor (which just gives you an appreciation for their accomplishments last year). Furman and Elon both have to go to the Rock this year. Will still have to see how the QB system shakes out for the mountaineers, but given their success over the last decade, hard not to pencil 'em in (at least this far out!) Guys, keep your new quarterbacks away from lawn-mowing duties though, k?

I think Montana falters a bit this year, amid a strengthening Big Sky (honest!) The Griz have to go to Cheney (EWU) and to Ogden (Weber). Even if I go all homer, I could still see the Griz losing one (or both) of those games, which would throw the seed thing in doubt.

William & Mary scares me, and I think they could be a legitimate #2 seed. So, let's say the Griz lose twice but make the playoffs; that could put the tribe as the #2 seed, and let's give SDSU the #4 seed, potentially hosting Montana in the round of 8. Oh come on, who wouldn't want to see that rematch on the Jackrabbits' home turf?

[4th and What?]

And familiarity means everything in pre-season polls :)

I have SB in my top 25 right now, and Liberty just missing at 26. You might see SB and Liberty hopping each other in the polls though with winnable games against Ball St, JMU for Liberty and depending on how well they look during the season, UMass and Lafayette for SB.

Does SB see themselves with a shot against South Florida?

[Tribe4SF]

I doubt SC State will be playing an opening round game. They will be in the top ten, and one of the last teams eliminated for a top 4 seed. With the field you've got, more likely that Liberty hosts Eastern Illinois.

[TheValleyRaider]

Have they actually announced how the playoffs will be structured? I don't remember seeing an announcement anywhere.... xconfusedx

[TexasTerror]

Have they actually announced how the playoffs will be structured? I don't remember seeing an announcement anywhere.... xconfusedx

Nope - I believe they are meeting in June to finalize it, another reason why this playoff prognostication can change next month! I'll have to read up... xscanx

[NHwildEcat]

I would be surprised if UNH played in the Opening Round...from what I can tell you have them somewhere outside the top 12...that doesn't seem likely. Even with their tough schedule, it would be hard to see some of those other school ranked higher at the end of the season. UNH may lose 3 games, but that shouldn't hurt their chances of playing a Second Round game.

[McNeese75]

It is as good as any guess but I still disagree on SFA getting the autobid. :D

[aggiemba]

I know that I get ripped for doing these all throughout the season, but I thought it would be to try to come up with a bracket for the new 20-team playoff system that would be getting underway this coming year.

Perhaps I can do this every month heading up to the season based on potential transfers, injuries, etc OR in Villanova's case - losing a certain championship game MVP.

Please note - that this round of bracketing (namely the seeding) was based on looking at my preseason poll and some of the others who I thought had decent brackets.

First off - did I get all the rules right?

Secondly - rip it up! You know you want to...especially since I got two MEAC teams in and only one from the OVC!

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Villanova
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: South Dakota State
Northeast: Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Weber State, Eastern Washington
Colonial: William & Mary, New Hampshire, Richmond
MEAC: Florida A&M
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa
Southern: Elon
Southland: Southeastern Louisiana

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Southeastern Louisiana @ Florida A&M
Lafayette @ Richmond
Central Connecticut State @ New Hampshire
Liberty @ South Carolina State

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Lafayette/Richmond winner @ #1 Villanova
Eastern Washington @ Northern Iowa

Liberty/SCST winner @ #4 William & Mary
Weber State @ Appalachian State

CCSU/UNH winner @ #3 Stephen F Austin
Eastern Illinois @ Southern Illinois

Elon @ South Dakota State
SLU/FAMU winner @ #2 Montana

Wow, amazing amount of East Coast bias in that one.

[TexasTerror]

Wow, amazing amount of East Coast bias in that one.

Two Southland teams, three Big Sky teams. One former Great West (South Dakota State).

Who else would you want?

UC-Davis has TWO games against FBS opposition and a game against unclassified South Alabama (do not believe they count as a Div I counter). You guys are against it already...

Cal Poly has a tough schedule. Plenty of road trips - including McNeese, TXST, Old Dominion and FRESNO STATE. Throw in a sub-Div I game (Humboldt) and they are in trouble too...

UND and USD are ineligible and do you really want me to break down SUU's qualifications?

[UAalum72]

An at-large for Florida A&M? That means they lost at least one MEAC game, plus you're not counting on them to beat Miami, are you? Their other OOC games are Tennessee State and Savannah State - they're worth an at-large?

[TexasTerror]

An at-large for Florida A&M? That means they lost at least one MEAC game, plus you're not counting on them to beat Miami, are you? Their other OOC games are Tennessee State and Savannah State - they're worth an at-large?

A 9-2 Florida A&M squad would be difficult to pass over in a 20-team field, especially with a pile up of 7-4 teams and my personal objective of trying to avoid putting a 5th CAA team in the mix at this point, especially in light that it's being done in May with so many people with a chance to get in and not in November, where they may be in play...

[Big Dawg]

I doubt SC State will be playing an opening round game. They will be in the top ten, and one of the last teams eliminated for a top 4 seed.

Depends on what happens in the MEAC...the MEAC may actually be a stronger conference this year.

[Go...gate]

At least Colgate wil have the SOS this year to merit At-Large consideration if they were to win 9 or 10 games.

[slostang]

Two Southland teams, three Big Sky teams. One former Great West (South Dakota State).

Who else would you want?

UC-Davis has TWO games against FBS opposition and a game against unclassified South Alabama (do not believe they count as a Div I counter). You guys are against it already...

Cal Poly has a tough schedule. Plenty of road trips - including McNeese, TXST, Old Dominion and FRESNO STATE. Throw in a sub-Div I game (Humboldt) and they are in trouble too...

UND and USD are ineligible and do you really want me to break down SUU's qualifications?

I think that Cal Poly will surprise people this year. Other than last year they have finished in the top 25 every year since 2004. Last year they had to over come the loss of nine starters on offense and had a new coaching staff to boot. Cal Poly fall at the end of the season was mainly because they were hammered with injuries, epecially on the D-line where they were already thin switching from Ellerson's 3-4 to a 4-3.

This year they return 9 starters on offense and add West Virginia RB Mark Rodgers. They return 8 starters on defense and a couple of impact transfers. Most importantly this year the coaching staff will have 1 1/2 years under their belts.

[TexasTerror]

I think that Cal Poly will surprise people this year. Other than last year they have finished in the top 25 every year since 2004. Last year they had to over come the loss of nine starters on offense and had a new coaching staff to boot. Cal Poly fall at the end of the season was mainly because they were hammered with injuries, epecially on the D-line where they were already thin switching from Ellerson's 3-4 to a 4-3.

This year they return 9 starters on offense and add West Virginia RB Mark Rodgers. They return 8 starters on defense and a couple of impact transfers. Most importantly this year the coaching staff will have 1 1/2 years under their belts.

We'll see...

They'll get a chance to prove themselves with the schedule they have. Still, if they lose to Fresno State, they'll be down to nine games for which to get at least seven wins, which may or may not be enough...

[asu3peat]

In your scenario, ASU wins the Socon, yet an at large W&M gets the #4 seed...Would ASU have to run the table (besides UF) in order to get seeded due to the weak out of conference schedule?

[TheValleyRaider]

At least Colgate wil have the SOS this year to merit At-Large consideration if they were to win 9 or 10 games.

If they win 9 or 10 games, they either won the PL or beat one of Furman or Syracuse. You're darn right that's playoff material xcoolx

[danefan]

A 9-2 Florida A&M squad would be difficult to pass over in a 20-team field, especially with a pile up of 7-4 teams and my personal objective of trying to avoid putting a 5th CAA team in the mix at this point, especially in light that it's being done in May with so many people with a chance to get in and not in November, where they may be in play...

Why would you have a "personal objective" of avoiding a 5th CAA team? The CAA got 5 teams in with 2 less spots available. Wouldn't it make sense given the historical context to put a team from the much stronger conference in?

Or are you just putting FAMU in to get people to respond to your post?

[TexasTerror]

Why would you have a "personal objective" of avoiding a 5th CAA team? The CAA got 5 teams in with 2 less spots available. Wouldn't it make sense given the historical context to put a team from the much stronger conference in?

Because at this point in the 'game', I am trying to spread the wealth around. At this point, tomorrow is today. Last year is behind us and we all have hope for a successful season!

The CAA teams do also have a historical tendency have to beat up each other and that truly makes it tough to make the playoffs. Tough to come out of that solid league...four teams is good for now.


Or are you just putting FAMU in to get people to respond to your post?

Nope, like their chances at going 9-2. Loss to Miami (Fla.) and the MEAC champion. It's hard to ignore a 9-2 team non AQ from any conference, unless it is the NEC or Pioneer, who probably do not have the SOS to justify their admission.

And yes, a second MEAC team does elicit response typically, but so would a second OVC team... xtwocentsx

[Go...gate]

If they win 9 or 10 games, they either won the PL or beat one of Furman or Syracuse. You're darn right that's playoff material xcoolx

It bugged me to go 9-2 last year and get left out on SOS. Historically, that is something Colgate has never had a problem with. This sked is back to normal.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

It bugged me to go 9-2 last year and get left out on SOS. Historically, that is something Colgate has never had a problem with. This sked is back to normal.

I have to think that Colgates recent playoff performance had something to do with it. Outside of their run in '03 the average score of their playoff losses is something like 51-24.

[UAalum72]

It's hard to ignore a 9-2 team non AQ from any conference, unless it is the NEC or Pioneer, who probably do not have the SOS to justify their admission.
What kind of SOS would FAMU have if their signature win is the third-place MEAC team? I don't believe in giving credit for playing FBS teams unless you're close to competitive.

[TheValleyRaider]

I have to think that Colgates recent playoff performance had something to do with it. Outside of their run in '03 the average score of their playoff losses is something like 51-24.

I think the PL's overall performance, playoff and regular season, really hurt overall. Our OOC schedule last season was Dartmouth (2-8), Cornell (2-8), Princeton (4-6), Monmouth (5-6) and Stony Brook (Big South Champs, but also 6-5). The PL doesn't have near enough cache to overcome an OOC schedule with a combined 17-33 record. Some poor planning and poor luck with the slate cost us in the end (as did losing to HC and Lafayette...). Looking terrible in our big national TV date against Princeton only accentuated those scheduling deficiencies. You don't need to look at anything else as an explanation for our staying home

Right now, this year's slate is much tougher. 9 wins would almost certainly mean a playoff birth, autobid or at-large xtwocentsx

[Redbirdz]

I believe I would be making that OVC entry Jacksonville State.