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November 2nd, 2009, 01:34 PM
Here are a few clarifications for who is and who is eligible for the playoff field:
The Ivy League does not participate; SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game; teams are also ineligible: Bryant, UTC, C. Arkansas, Jacksonville State, NC Central, North Dakota, Presbyterian, South Dakota, and Winston Salem St.
Take a look at the prospects of FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes heading into the last three weeks of the regular season. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the field, as determined by Me. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The rank below is based on being in the tournament.
1. Richmond (8-0, 6-0 CAA)
The Games: Villanova (11/7), at Georgetown (11/14), W&M (11/21)
Outlook: The Spiders appear to headed back to the playoffs, 2 more wins will secure that – but a top seed and Autobid is at hand, 3 losses in last could be trouble, but not likely for the defending champs..
2. Montana (8-0, 5-0 Big Sky)
The Games: at Idaho State (11/7), N Colorado (11/14), at Montana State (11/21)
Outlook: Secure 2 more wins and you are in – 3 losses at the end could pose trouble however they appear to be in the drivers seat to a top 4 seed and Autobid for the Big Sky. Montana State is the only real remaining threat to an undefeated regular season.
3. Elon (7-1, 5-0 Southern)
The Games: at Western Carolina (11/7), ASU (11/14), at Samford (11/21)
Outlook: Elon is the class of the SoCon so far this year with ASU’s up and downs. However the game with ASU will determine their fate – I see a top four seed if they can win out – at the moment that looks likely.
4. Villanova (7-1, 4-1 CAA)
The Games: at Richmond (11/7), at Towson (11/14), Delaware (11/21)
Outlook: The outlook is good for Villanova but they can still capture the Autobid and a top 4 seed – they have two weeks to prepare for Richmond – will it payoff?
5. Southern Illinois (7-1, 6-0 MVC)
The Games: at South Dakota State (11/7), MO State (11/14), at SE MO St (11/21)
Outlook: S. Illinois’s fortunes could be changing, after losing their starting quarterback and an interesting schedule the rest of the way. This week will provide a great opportunity to secure a post-season and Autobid – a lose and things could head south – either way I still see this team in the postseason.
6. South Carolina State (6-1. 4-0 MEAC)
The Games: at Howard (11/7), Morgan State (11/14), at NC A&T (11/21)
Outlook: Things are looking great for the dogs for the Autobid, only an upset could derail their chances. A first round game is their goal but unlikely based on regional scenarios – but a lot of football left.
7. South Dakota State (7-1, 6-0 MVC)
The Games: S. Illinois (11/7), at Minnesota (11/14), at W. Illinois (11/21)
Outlook: They must win two more to secure the post season berth, a possible MVC autobid is very much within their reach. This weekend the rabbits helped eliminate the Penguins from postseason consideration.
8. New Hampshire (7-1, 4-1 CAA)
The Games: Rhode Island (11/7), at W&M (11/14), Maine (11/21)
Outlook: The best thing for NH is their schedule, only W&M should pose a real threat and even at 3 losses they are in the field. They have a shot at capturing a top seed.
9. William & Mary (7-1, 4-1 CAA)
The Games: Towson (11/7), N Hampshire (11/14), at Richmond (11/21)
Outlook: Two more losses could be in store for the tribe but if they win out they could steal the Autobid and secure a top seed. It is a horse race for the top 4 teams in the Colonial – last two weeks will sort it all out.
10. Appalachian State (6-2, 5-0 Southern)
The Games: UTC (11/7), at Elon (11/14), Western Carolina (11/21)
Outlook: The Mountaineers have been playing for their playoff lives for the last 5 weeks – so far they have responded, however 2 losses and they are out! 3 wins and they could be a top 4 seed. Even with one more loss – the Mountaineers will be playing at home for Round 1, this looks likely as Elon appears to too tough to beat.
11. Holy Cross (7-1, 3-0 Patriot)
The Games: at Lehigh (11/7) Lafayette (11/14), at Bucknell (11/21)
Outlook: They have taken the lead in the Patriot, winning out will secure the Autobid. The goal is here is to keep winning – any lose could keep this team at home for Thanksgiving.
12. McNeese State (6-2, 3-1 Southland)
The Games: Sam Houston State (11/7), at Texas State (11/14), C. Arkansas (11/21)
Outlook: A huge win at ASU keeps the Cowboys in – but a tough slate of games ahead could push this team right our of the post season. An Autobid is still within reach but winning must be their only goal!
13. Northern Iowa (5-3, 3-2 MVC)
The Games: Youngstown State (11/7), W. Illinois (11/14), at Illinois State (11/21)
Outlook: MUST WIN OUT! The Penguins could derail this talented teams playoff hopes.
14. Eastern Kentucky/Eastern Illinois/ Tenn Tech/Tenn State (OVC)
The Games:
Outlook: AB No longer matters, a down year for this conference – someone will get the Autobid and that will be it. Eastern Illinois is starting to look like the winner of this shootout.
15. Colgate (8-1, 3-1 Patriot)
The Games: at Layfayette (11/7), Bucknell (11/14)
Outlook: Colgate can ill afford another loss – but should be in good shape for the playoffs if they win their last 2. I continue to like the chances of Colgate this weeks game could seal the deal.
16. SF Austin (6-2, 3-1 Southland)
The Games: Nichols State (11/7), at SE Louisana (11/14), at N’western State (11/21)
Outlook: SFA took a big step backwards this weekend, know a log jam at the top of the Southland conference, the showdown with SEL will be big – no guarantee of a playoff berth with three losses.
17. Florida A&M (6-2, 4-1 MEAC)
The Games: NC A&T (11/7), at Hampton(11/14), at Bethune Cookman(11/21)
Outlook: An interesting scenario as the MEAC is making a run at two bids this year, the rattlers will need to win out to keep that talk going – if they do it would potentially eliminate a bubble team from around the country. A huge victory this weekend keeps the them in the mix and took Morgan State out of consideration.
18. Northern Arizona (5-3, 4-2 Big Sky)
The Games: at Ole Miss (11/7), at Weber State (11/14), Eastern Washington (11/21)
Outlook: A major hit this weekend, they must win out and it seems nearly impossible.
19. Layfayette (7-1, 3-0 Patriot)
The Games: Colgate (11/7), at Holy Cross (11/14), at Lehigh (11/21)
Outlook: Must win out but a tough schedule remains, the playoffs begin this weekend!
20. SE Louisana (5-3, 3-1 Southland)
The Games: at N’western State (11/7), SFA (11/14), Nichols State (11/21)
Outlook: Can still win the Autobid but a lot of football left to be played. A stunning victory this past weekend puts them in a very good position. They will need to keep winning as another loss sends the Lions packing.
21. Liberty (6-2, 3-0 Big South)
The Games: VMI (11/7), at Gardner Webb (11/14), at Stony Brook (11/21)
Outlook: Things got a little brighter this weekend for the flames – they need a couple more weeks of elimination to be a true contender – losses by E. Washington, UNI, Delaware, SE Louis, Layfayette, Colgate and N. Arizona will really help their chances.
22. Central Connecticut State (7-1, 5-0 Northeast)
The Games: at Wagner (11/7), Monmonth (11/14), at St Francis (11/21)
Outlook: This team is starting to look like a real contender – only a lone loss to W&M which actually helps their chances. However not a strong schedule will mean a lot of losses for bubble teams will need to occur.
22. Butler (8-0, 5-0 Pioneer)
The Games: at Dayton (11/7), at Jacksonville (11/14), Drake (11/21)
Outlook: An undefeated season is within their grasp, but they will need to do just that to be in consideration for an at large berth.
22. Delaware (5-3, 3-3 CAA)
The Games: Hofstra (11/7), at Navy (11/14), at Villanova (11/21)
Outlook: The Hens may have seen their playoff hopes vanish this weekend, they must win out just to be considered.
23. Weber State (5-4, 5-2 Big Sky)
The Games: N Arizona (11/14), at Cal Poly (11/21)
Outlook: Weber may have played themselves right out of post season consideration – they really needed the win this weekend to keep hope alive – they still have a small outside chance, but again they must win out. Only the fact that two of their losses are to FBS schools keeps them in the playoff chase.
24. Montana State (5-3, 3-2 Big Sky)
The Games: Portland State (11/7), Sacramento State (11/14), Montana (11/21)
Outlook: Win out and you could be in the post season – slip up and you are certainly out. They game at Montana could be for a playoff bid.
Others that I am watching…Drake, Dayton and Eastern Washington
Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field and possible match-ups, based on expectations for the remaining games this season.
Automatic Bids: Patriot: Holy Cross, A10: Richmond, Big Sky: Montana, Southland: McNeese St., Southern: Elon, Gateway: South Dakota St., MEAC: SCSt, OVC: E. Illinois
At-large: Villanova, N. Iowa, N. Hamp, W&M, S Ill, ASU, SFA, Fla A&M.
Seeds: Montana, Richmond, N. Hamp, Elon
Last In: SFA and Fla A&M
Last Out: Colgate, Liberty and Weber State
Bracket I: Fla A&M at No. 1 Richmond; Holy Cross at Villanova;
SFA at No. 4 N Hamp; SCSt at ASU
Bracket II: S. Dakota State at No. 2 Montana; McNeese State at N. Iowa;
W&M at No. 3 Elon; E. Ill @ S. Ill
NOTES:
*Based on my projections, the best first round game, SDak St/Montana and SFA/N. Hampshire.
*Best potential 2nd Round game, Villanova/Richmond
*Based on my projections, most likely upset – S Dakota State over Montana.
*NC game based on my projections, Richmond vs. Elon – Richmond wins it all…
The Ivy League does not participate; SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game; teams are also ineligible: Bryant, UTC, C. Arkansas, Jacksonville State, NC Central, North Dakota, Presbyterian, South Dakota, and Winston Salem St.
Take a look at the prospects of FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes heading into the last three weeks of the regular season. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the field, as determined by Me. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The rank below is based on being in the tournament.
1. Richmond (8-0, 6-0 CAA)
The Games: Villanova (11/7), at Georgetown (11/14), W&M (11/21)
Outlook: The Spiders appear to headed back to the playoffs, 2 more wins will secure that – but a top seed and Autobid is at hand, 3 losses in last could be trouble, but not likely for the defending champs..
2. Montana (8-0, 5-0 Big Sky)
The Games: at Idaho State (11/7), N Colorado (11/14), at Montana State (11/21)
Outlook: Secure 2 more wins and you are in – 3 losses at the end could pose trouble however they appear to be in the drivers seat to a top 4 seed and Autobid for the Big Sky. Montana State is the only real remaining threat to an undefeated regular season.
3. Elon (7-1, 5-0 Southern)
The Games: at Western Carolina (11/7), ASU (11/14), at Samford (11/21)
Outlook: Elon is the class of the SoCon so far this year with ASU’s up and downs. However the game with ASU will determine their fate – I see a top four seed if they can win out – at the moment that looks likely.
4. Villanova (7-1, 4-1 CAA)
The Games: at Richmond (11/7), at Towson (11/14), Delaware (11/21)
Outlook: The outlook is good for Villanova but they can still capture the Autobid and a top 4 seed – they have two weeks to prepare for Richmond – will it payoff?
5. Southern Illinois (7-1, 6-0 MVC)
The Games: at South Dakota State (11/7), MO State (11/14), at SE MO St (11/21)
Outlook: S. Illinois’s fortunes could be changing, after losing their starting quarterback and an interesting schedule the rest of the way. This week will provide a great opportunity to secure a post-season and Autobid – a lose and things could head south – either way I still see this team in the postseason.
6. South Carolina State (6-1. 4-0 MEAC)
The Games: at Howard (11/7), Morgan State (11/14), at NC A&T (11/21)
Outlook: Things are looking great for the dogs for the Autobid, only an upset could derail their chances. A first round game is their goal but unlikely based on regional scenarios – but a lot of football left.
7. South Dakota State (7-1, 6-0 MVC)
The Games: S. Illinois (11/7), at Minnesota (11/14), at W. Illinois (11/21)
Outlook: They must win two more to secure the post season berth, a possible MVC autobid is very much within their reach. This weekend the rabbits helped eliminate the Penguins from postseason consideration.
8. New Hampshire (7-1, 4-1 CAA)
The Games: Rhode Island (11/7), at W&M (11/14), Maine (11/21)
Outlook: The best thing for NH is their schedule, only W&M should pose a real threat and even at 3 losses they are in the field. They have a shot at capturing a top seed.
9. William & Mary (7-1, 4-1 CAA)
The Games: Towson (11/7), N Hampshire (11/14), at Richmond (11/21)
Outlook: Two more losses could be in store for the tribe but if they win out they could steal the Autobid and secure a top seed. It is a horse race for the top 4 teams in the Colonial – last two weeks will sort it all out.
10. Appalachian State (6-2, 5-0 Southern)
The Games: UTC (11/7), at Elon (11/14), Western Carolina (11/21)
Outlook: The Mountaineers have been playing for their playoff lives for the last 5 weeks – so far they have responded, however 2 losses and they are out! 3 wins and they could be a top 4 seed. Even with one more loss – the Mountaineers will be playing at home for Round 1, this looks likely as Elon appears to too tough to beat.
11. Holy Cross (7-1, 3-0 Patriot)
The Games: at Lehigh (11/7) Lafayette (11/14), at Bucknell (11/21)
Outlook: They have taken the lead in the Patriot, winning out will secure the Autobid. The goal is here is to keep winning – any lose could keep this team at home for Thanksgiving.
12. McNeese State (6-2, 3-1 Southland)
The Games: Sam Houston State (11/7), at Texas State (11/14), C. Arkansas (11/21)
Outlook: A huge win at ASU keeps the Cowboys in – but a tough slate of games ahead could push this team right our of the post season. An Autobid is still within reach but winning must be their only goal!
13. Northern Iowa (5-3, 3-2 MVC)
The Games: Youngstown State (11/7), W. Illinois (11/14), at Illinois State (11/21)
Outlook: MUST WIN OUT! The Penguins could derail this talented teams playoff hopes.
14. Eastern Kentucky/Eastern Illinois/ Tenn Tech/Tenn State (OVC)
The Games:
Outlook: AB No longer matters, a down year for this conference – someone will get the Autobid and that will be it. Eastern Illinois is starting to look like the winner of this shootout.
15. Colgate (8-1, 3-1 Patriot)
The Games: at Layfayette (11/7), Bucknell (11/14)
Outlook: Colgate can ill afford another loss – but should be in good shape for the playoffs if they win their last 2. I continue to like the chances of Colgate this weeks game could seal the deal.
16. SF Austin (6-2, 3-1 Southland)
The Games: Nichols State (11/7), at SE Louisana (11/14), at N’western State (11/21)
Outlook: SFA took a big step backwards this weekend, know a log jam at the top of the Southland conference, the showdown with SEL will be big – no guarantee of a playoff berth with three losses.
17. Florida A&M (6-2, 4-1 MEAC)
The Games: NC A&T (11/7), at Hampton(11/14), at Bethune Cookman(11/21)
Outlook: An interesting scenario as the MEAC is making a run at two bids this year, the rattlers will need to win out to keep that talk going – if they do it would potentially eliminate a bubble team from around the country. A huge victory this weekend keeps the them in the mix and took Morgan State out of consideration.
18. Northern Arizona (5-3, 4-2 Big Sky)
The Games: at Ole Miss (11/7), at Weber State (11/14), Eastern Washington (11/21)
Outlook: A major hit this weekend, they must win out and it seems nearly impossible.
19. Layfayette (7-1, 3-0 Patriot)
The Games: Colgate (11/7), at Holy Cross (11/14), at Lehigh (11/21)
Outlook: Must win out but a tough schedule remains, the playoffs begin this weekend!
20. SE Louisana (5-3, 3-1 Southland)
The Games: at N’western State (11/7), SFA (11/14), Nichols State (11/21)
Outlook: Can still win the Autobid but a lot of football left to be played. A stunning victory this past weekend puts them in a very good position. They will need to keep winning as another loss sends the Lions packing.
21. Liberty (6-2, 3-0 Big South)
The Games: VMI (11/7), at Gardner Webb (11/14), at Stony Brook (11/21)
Outlook: Things got a little brighter this weekend for the flames – they need a couple more weeks of elimination to be a true contender – losses by E. Washington, UNI, Delaware, SE Louis, Layfayette, Colgate and N. Arizona will really help their chances.
22. Central Connecticut State (7-1, 5-0 Northeast)
The Games: at Wagner (11/7), Monmonth (11/14), at St Francis (11/21)
Outlook: This team is starting to look like a real contender – only a lone loss to W&M which actually helps their chances. However not a strong schedule will mean a lot of losses for bubble teams will need to occur.
22. Butler (8-0, 5-0 Pioneer)
The Games: at Dayton (11/7), at Jacksonville (11/14), Drake (11/21)
Outlook: An undefeated season is within their grasp, but they will need to do just that to be in consideration for an at large berth.
22. Delaware (5-3, 3-3 CAA)
The Games: Hofstra (11/7), at Navy (11/14), at Villanova (11/21)
Outlook: The Hens may have seen their playoff hopes vanish this weekend, they must win out just to be considered.
23. Weber State (5-4, 5-2 Big Sky)
The Games: N Arizona (11/14), at Cal Poly (11/21)
Outlook: Weber may have played themselves right out of post season consideration – they really needed the win this weekend to keep hope alive – they still have a small outside chance, but again they must win out. Only the fact that two of their losses are to FBS schools keeps them in the playoff chase.
24. Montana State (5-3, 3-2 Big Sky)
The Games: Portland State (11/7), Sacramento State (11/14), Montana (11/21)
Outlook: Win out and you could be in the post season – slip up and you are certainly out. They game at Montana could be for a playoff bid.
Others that I am watching…Drake, Dayton and Eastern Washington
Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field and possible match-ups, based on expectations for the remaining games this season.
Automatic Bids: Patriot: Holy Cross, A10: Richmond, Big Sky: Montana, Southland: McNeese St., Southern: Elon, Gateway: South Dakota St., MEAC: SCSt, OVC: E. Illinois
At-large: Villanova, N. Iowa, N. Hamp, W&M, S Ill, ASU, SFA, Fla A&M.
Seeds: Montana, Richmond, N. Hamp, Elon
Last In: SFA and Fla A&M
Last Out: Colgate, Liberty and Weber State
Bracket I: Fla A&M at No. 1 Richmond; Holy Cross at Villanova;
SFA at No. 4 N Hamp; SCSt at ASU
Bracket II: S. Dakota State at No. 2 Montana; McNeese State at N. Iowa;
W&M at No. 3 Elon; E. Ill @ S. Ill
NOTES:
*Based on my projections, the best first round game, SDak St/Montana and SFA/N. Hampshire.
*Best potential 2nd Round game, Villanova/Richmond
*Based on my projections, most likely upset – S Dakota State over Montana.
*NC game based on my projections, Richmond vs. Elon – Richmond wins it all…