Could the MVFC get 4 teams in the playoffs?

[MissouriStatefan]

Do you think the MVFC could get 4 teams in the playoffs this year if either Missouri State or Youngstown State could get to 8 wins? Not saying either can or will but curious about what others think if that were to happen.

a second part of the question may be if Missouri State, who has a very favorable schedule going forward with games at NDSU, home against Illinois State and Indiana State and at SIU. If they win the first 3 but lose to SIU that would give them a 7-4 record but all 3 losses would come against top 10 teams (UNI, SDSU and SIU). Would that record get them strong consideration considering those 3 losses at the FCS level and one loss to FBS Arkansas?

[ValleyChamp]

Absolutely not. Probably not even three. No way.

[Gil Dobie]

As bad as NDSU is, it's still not going to be a gimme win for either MSU or YSU in the Fargodome.

[FargoBison]

If you want to get into the playoffs you better go 8-3, at 7-4 basically everything needs to fall your way.

[soccerguy315]

yea... you really need to get to 8-3. 7-4 only gets you in if you are very lucky.

Would Missouri State have any "quality wins" that would convince the committee they would be competitive if they went 7-4? (just asking, not familiar with the schedule)

[MSUBear42]

Not a chance MSU gets in without winning out against NDSU, ILSU, INSU, and SIU.

Do that and we have a shot at 8-3, but that's a tall task.

[93henfan]

Any team with 8 wins (including 7 D-I) is worthy of consideration, so if it shakes out that way in the MVFC then why not? If there are more at-large teams in that boat than there are at-large berths available when the selection committee meets, then the tougher questions will have to be asked.

[Thunder_Struck]

What if MSU is 7-4 with a win over SIU?

[mmiller_34]

Could they get 3 if.... SDSU beats UNI and SUI. So then UNI goes 8-3 (loses Iowa,SIU,SDSU) and SIU goes 9-2 (Loses SDSU and Marshall) and SDSU goes 9-2? (Loses Cal Poly, Minnesota)??

[unigriff]

Best scenario for 3 would be UNI beats SDSU, SDSU beats SIU.
3 way conference champions with whoever has the best GPI as the automatic bid (due to tiebreakers...we figured it out on PN today). UNI would be 9-2, SIU 8-3, SDSU 8-3.

[ValleyChamp]

I don't think a UNI team with losses to Iowa, SIU, and SDSU would get in. They would be 8-3 but I don't think you could find any quality wins in there. Am I wrong, or should an 8-3 team be in most of the time?

[unigriff]

well if ASU can get in with an 8-3, or 7-4 with no quality wins (which is whats going to happen:)) UNI can to...tradition prevails;)

[mmiller_34]

I don't think a UNI team with losses to Iowa, SIU, and SDSU would get in. They would be 8-3 but I don't think you could find any quality wins in there. Am I wrong, or should an 8-3 team be in most of the time?


OR. UNI beats SDSU next week. SDSU beats SIU. So... UNI (9-2) SIU (9-2) SDSU (8-3). But then I don't see SDSU getting in at 8-3 either.... What a debacle xoopsx

[MissouriStatefan]

What would happen if SDSU beats both SIU and UNI but loses one to someone else and Missouri State runs the tabel?
That would then make SDSU 9-2, UNI 8-3, SIU 8-3 & MSU 8-3.
I know its just pure speculation at best at this point but interesting to ponder.

[mmiller_34]

What would happen if SDSU beats both SIU and UNI but loses one to someone else and Missouri State runs the tabel?
That would then make SDSU 9-2, UNI 8-3, SIU 8-3 & MSU 8-3.
I know its just pure speculation at best at this point but interesting to ponder.


Already assumed that SDSU loses to Minnesota, so if SDSU beats both UNI and SIU and then loses to someone else in the conference (most possible; Youngstown). So.. SDSU would also be 8-3 in that scenario

[siuham]

Even in a best case scenarion working out in our own conference and other conferences *cough*CAA*cough* having weird things happen to their better teams, I don't see it happening.

[BearsCountry]

Oh come on we all know if Missouri State is on the bubble we aren't getting in. See other NCAA sports.

[Saluki09]

The most likely way to get 3 teams in is if the CAA only gets 4. If the CAA gets 5...maybe we could get 3... but it would be rather ridiculous having 8 of 16 teams (and 6 of 8 at large) coming from just 2 conferences. At this point, 4 are already more or less shoe-ins (W&M, Richmond, Nova and UNH). I think UMass has more of a chance of going 4-1 in their last games than Delaware going 3-1 in their last games. As for Hofstra, they would have to win out to get to 8-3 and I don't see that happening either.

Then the MVFC would have to have a situation where either all 3 teams go 9-2 (unlikely because that would mean UNI beats SDSU and SDSU beats both Minnesota & SIU), or - more likely - have one of them go 8-3. It's hard to say whether an 8-3 UNI team would have more of a chance than an 8-3 SDSU team. Logically an 8-3 SDSU team would have a better shot because they would actually have a quality win (SIU, UNI, or Minnesota). But UNI has a lot of tradition and it would be hard to keep them out at 8-3 despite having no notable wins.

[siuham]

Oh come on we all know if Missouri State is on the bubble we aren't getting in. See other NCAA sports.

xlolx

[MissouriStatefan]

The most likely way to get 3 teams in is if the CAA only gets 4. If the CAA gets 5...maybe we could get 3... but it would be rather ridiculous having 8 of 16 teams (and 6 of 8 at large) coming from just 2 conferences. At this point, 4 are already more or less shoe-ins (W&M, Richmond, Nova and UNH). I think UMass has more of a chance of going 4-1 in their last games than Delaware going 3-1 in their last games. As for Hofstra, they would have to win out to get to 8-3 and I don't see that happening either.

Then the MVFC would have to have a situation where either all 3 teams go 9-2 (unlikely because that would mean UNI beats SDSU and SDSU beats both Minnesota & SIU), or - more likely - have one of them go 8-3. It's hard to say whether an 8-3 UNI team would have more of a chance than an 8-3 SDSU team. Logically an 8-3 SDSU team would have a better shot because they would actually have a quality win (SIU, UNI, or Minnesota). But UNI has a lot of tradition and it would be hard to keep them out at 8-3 despite having no notable wins.

Oh I dont like that scenario at all. In that case there would be four 8-3 teams and someones getting screwed! And as BearsCountry pointed out I think we all know which team that would be. xconfusedx

[MSUfan2010]

First, there is no way this MSU team wins at NDSU

Second, there is no way this MSU team wins at SIU

Third, there is no way that the Valley gets more than 3 even if 4 teams some how finish with 8 wins.


xcoffeex

[Thundar]

First, there is no way this MSU team wins at NDSU

Second, there is no way this MSU team wins at SIU

Third, there is no way that the Valley gets more than 3 even if 4 teams some how finish with 8 wins.


xcoffeex

I wouldn't be so surexoopsxxoopsx

[MSUfan2010]

I wouldn't be so surexoopsxxoopsx

This team isn't going to win 7 games. And I for sure hope they don't lose at home to Ill State or Indy State.......

[skinny_uncle]

First, there is no way this MSU team wins at NDSU

Second, there is no way this MSU team wins at SIU

Third, there is no way that the Valley gets more than 3 even if 4 teams some how finish with 8 wins.


xcoffeex
That was pretty much my thought, but I am glad a Bear fan said it.
xnodx

[Redbird Ray]

Does anyone know how much weight is put into a team's performance down the stretch of the season? For example, if Illinois State wins out the rest of the season and beats a highly regarded UNI team to finish the season to go 7-4, might the committee overlook early losses? I know in basketball, a team's final 10 or 12 is a major stat in letting them in the tourney or not?

Just wondering, I'm not making plans for the playoffs this year. xpeacex

[MSUBear42]

This team isn't going to win 7 games. And I for sure hope they don't lose at home to Ill State or Indy State.......

Changing your BearNation prediction? I think you had the same prediction I had. BUT, preseason no one thought NDSU would be 1-6 at this point xlolx

@Arkansas - L
Tennessee-Martin - W
Murray State - W
Northern Iowa - L
@Youngston State - W
South Dakota State - W
@Western Illinois - W
@North Dakota State - L
Illinois State - W
Indiana State - W
@Southern Illinois - W

8-3

[JMUNJ08]

Didn't have to read. With the competition in other conferences...3 if things work out right

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

I don't think a UNI team with losses to Iowa, SIU, and SDSU would get in. They would be 8-3 but I don't think you could find any quality wins in there. Am I wrong, or should an 8-3 team be in most of the time?

An 8-3 team from a power conference with all D-I wins normally makes the playoffs, but there have been exceptions. See my 1996 example for UNH in another thread? Then there is the original "Woofed". But the quality, strong league schedule is what normally gets a power conference team into the playoffs. And the close loss at Iowa will continue to hold positive weight. JMHO, but it is teams from non-power conferences that usually have to post a "quality" win on their resume.

Don't forget that SIU at 8-3 will only have seven D-I wins. After beating UNI at home, if SIU ends up 8-3 then they probably will have a "bad" loss (not SDSU or Marshall) that will also hurt their cause. All will depend on the list of 8-3 or better teams the committee has to work with. xtwocentsx

[UNIFanSince1983]

It would be the toughest for an 8-3 UNI team than say an 8-3 SDSU, or 8-3 SIU. I Think it is possible if it ends up being a round robin with UNI beating SDSU and then SDSU beating SIU. That would make UNI and SIU 9-2 (provided none of these teams stumble against teams they should beat). And SDSU 8-3. This gives us the best chance for 3 teams in. If UNI loses to SDSU they would be on the bubble, but have NO good wins (Unless say MSU or YSU becomes respectable). They do have 3 good losses, but those shouldn't mean anything, unless the Hawks keep running the table, but even then we didn't beat them.

We traditionally do not get in unless we are conference champions. We only once got an at large, and that was last year when we shared the conference championship, and didn't get the autobid. I think we need to win out to get in. And for the conference to get 3 we need a round robin of SDSU, SIU, and UNI (a no unexpected losses for any of them).

4 is completely out of the realm of possibility.

[RabidRabbit]

Best scenario for 3 would be UNI beats SDSU, SDSU beats SIU.
3 way conference champions with whoever has the best GPI as the automatic bid (due to tiebreakers...we figured it out on PN today). UNI would be 9-2, SIU 8-3, SDSU 8-3.

Yes, 3 will be the max out of the MVFC. Reasonable possibility of only two, or if any losses by the top three to anyone else, possibly just the AQ.

SIU basically won their way on into the play-offs vs Panthers. Although they're still the most vulnerable if they lose to anyone but the Jacks. Jacks need to win at least 1 of 2 vs SIU/UNI. That non-D-I game could come back to haunt Dawgs.

UNI could still lose one, and get in. Jacks for Hobo Day became a very crucial game for both teams.

MSU MUST NOT LOSE to have a prayer to get to 8-3.

YSU is still in hunt, but haven't played any of top three yet.

All others are out of contention for MVFC title, too many conference losses.

[Big Al]

With playoff regionalization, if the MVFC gets 3 teams in, expect us all to end up in the same bracket, with potential for semi-finals in Montana.

Man, this could get really ugly.

On the bright side, I think UNI plays at home for all playoff games unless we're playing a seeded team.

[MSUfan2010]

Changing your BearNation prediction? I think you had the same prediction I had. BUT, preseason no one thought NDSU would be 1-6 at this point xlolx

@Arkansas - L
Tennessee-Martin - W
Murray State - W
Northern Iowa - L
@Youngston State - W
South Dakota State - W
@Western Illinois - W
@North Dakota State - L
Illinois State - W
Indiana State - W
@Southern Illinois - W

8-3

Well, considering I changed mine after the Murray State game I will admit 8-3 was not my original thought. I think I had us at 5 wins.

[skinny_uncle]

With playoff regionalization, if the MVFC gets 3 teams in, expect us all to end up in the same bracket, with potential for semi-finals in Montana.

Man, this could get really ugly.

On the bright side, I think UNI plays at home for all playoff games unless we're playing a seeded team.
Kind of like Montana?
xeyebrowx

[MSUfan2010]

In order to make it we would have to beat SIU and then somehow finish 3rd in The Valley by ourself or tied with SIU. Long odds

[89Hen]

With playoff regionalization, if the MVFC gets 3 teams in, expect us all to end up in the same bracket, with potential for semi-finals in Montana.
If you have three in the same bracket you'd have to have one face Montana in the quarters. xpeacex

[MplsBison]

Both MSU and USY will both lose to an improved NDSU team in the Fargodome, playing more talented under-classmen and benching upper-classmen now that the season is basically nothing left to play for.



That said, it's more or less guaranteed in my mind that UNI, SIU and SDSU will make the playoffs.

[MSUBear42]

In order to make it we would have to beat SIU and then somehow finish 3rd in The Valley by ourself or tied with SIU. Long odds

Well, of course it's long odds. BUT it is possible, should we win out. We'd have 8 D1 wins, since we didn't play down this year.

[Big Al]

If you have three in the same bracket you'd have to have one face Montana in the quarters. xpeacex

Yup. In the quarters or possibly in the first round. The other 2 would then potentially meet in the quarterfinal round.

Anyways, with UNI's loss, all roads lead through Montana unles SIU wins out and gets a seed. Even then, I bet they get seeded below Montana.

[MSUfan2010]

Both MSU and USY will both lose to an improved NDSU team in the Fargodome, playing more talented under-classmen and benching upper-classmen now that the season is basically nothing left to play for.


If they are more talented, why weren't they playing from the beginning?

[PantherRob82]

No way at all. 3 is doubtful.

[Bearvision]

No chance MSU gets to 8-3...they traditionally don't play well in the super cold. What's the weather in North Dakota this weekend?

[Big Al]

70 degrees in the FargoShed.

[MSUfan2010]

No chance MSU gets to 8-3...they traditionally don't play well in the super cold. What's the weather in North Dakota this weekend?

xlolxxlolxxlolx

[leatherneck177]

First, there is no way this MSU team wins at NDSU

Second, there is no way this MSU team wins at SIU

Third, there is no way that the Valley gets more than 3 even if 4 teams some how finish with 8 wins.


xcoffeex

Agreed. I was at the game this past weekend and while this is absolutely the best Bears team I have seen in at least ten years, they are still not in the top level of MVFC programs.

Not sure on their ability to run the football or stop the run.

[MSUBear42]

Agreed. I was at the game this past weekend and while this is absolutely the best Bears team I have seen in at least ten years, they are still not in the top level of MVFC programs.

Not sure on their ability to run the football or stop the run.

Our current #1 RB was our preseason #6 if that tells you anything. We lost #1 RB Kingjack Washington to Academics and lost #2 RB Stephen Johnston to injury.

[nmatsen]

The game this week in Brookings will go a long way toward determining if we have a shot at 3 getting in. If UNI wins this weekend (oh dear god please let us win this weekend) and runs the table, and SIU runs the table we will be a two bid league with two seeds. SDSU would get sold out at 8-3 by our conference so they could get UNI and SIU a seed. Don't forget, if UNI and SIU win out they will both be ahead of at least two of the top three ranked CAA schools right now seeings how Richmond has to play Bill and Mary and Nova. When one of those teams loses they will be jumped back to at least 6. Much like we were.

[89Hen]

As bad as NDSU is, it's still not going to be a gimme win for either MSU or YSU in the Fargodome.
I dunno Gil, I have a feeling the Bison may turn out to be a pretty strong program in the long run.

[Gil Dobie]

I dunno Gil, I have a feeling the Bison may turn out to be a pretty strong program in the long run.

The young team proved me wrong and came thru with a great season.

[Redbird 4th & short]

The young team proved me wrong and came thru with a great season.

not in 2009 .. wound up 3-8. Maybe youre thinking about 2010 .. you started 4-3 with losses to UNI, WIU, and ISUr, then squeaked in at 7-4 despite getting shut out by 5-6 MoST by score of 3-0 on road in finale, and then won 2 playoff games easily to get to quarters, and losing to eventual champs EWU by 7 on road.

In fact, 2010 is the season that MVFC arguably started to turn the corner and become the top conference in 2011 & subsequent. We had 6 teams finish 4-4, and were one game away from having 7 of 9 teams finish 4-4 .. it started getting very competitive that year.

[Gil Dobie]

not in 2009 .. wound up 3-8. Maybe youre thinking about 2010 .. you started 4-3 with losses to UNI, WIU, and ISUr, then squeaked in at 7-4 despite getting shut out by 5-6 MoST by score of 3-0 on road in finale, and then won 2 playoff games easily to get to quarters, and losing to eventual champs EWU by 7 on road.

In fact, 2010 is the season that MVFC arguably started to turn the corner and become the top conference in 2011 & subsequent. We had 6 teams finish 4-4, and were one game away from having 7 of 9 teams finish 4-4 .. it started getting very competitive that year.

89Hen and I have been going back and forth on another messageboard, about how good the Bison were going to be this year.

[Redbird 4th & short]

89Hen and I have been going back and forth on another messageboard, about how good the Bison were going to be this year.
Talk about thread drift .... 10 years !!!!!

= D