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bluehenbillk
October 18th, 2009, 07:06 AM
Looks very conceivable there could be as many as 6 CAA teams with records of 8-3 or better.

Richmond, Nova, Wm and Mary, Delaware, UNH and UMass.

Will make Selection Sunday pretty interesting......

Thoughts??

van
October 18th, 2009, 07:29 AM
If Delaware gets to 8-3 will they have 7 D-1 wins?

GoBlueHens83
October 18th, 2009, 07:53 AM
If Delaware gets to 8-3 will they have 7 D-1 wins?

Yes they will. We still have tough games with Navy & villanova. We need to win 3 of our last 4 to get in.

Ud1Hens
October 18th, 2009, 08:19 AM
Richmond: 6-0 with wins over FBS Duke and Delaware, three tough games left vs. UMass, Villanova, and William & Mary (all at home)...they are in.

Villanova: 6-1 with wins over FBS Temple and William & Mary, lone loss is @ New Hampshire, two tough games left @ Richmond and vs. Delaware...they are in

New Hampshire: 5-1 with wins over FBS Ball St. and Villanova, lone loss @ UMass, one tough game left @ William & Mary...they are in

William & Mary: 5-1 with wins over FBS Virginia and Delaware, lone loss @ Villanova, two tough games left vs. New Hampshire and @ Richmond...they are in

Delaware: 5-2 with win over UMass, two losses vs Richmond and William & Mary, two tough games left @ Navy and @ Villanova...win one of the two tough games...they'd be in

That brings me to the team I think would be left out:

UMass: 4-2 with win over New Hampshire, two losses vs. Delaware and FBS Kansas State, one tough game left @ Richmond...they could have 8 D-1 wins vs. Delaware's 7 D-1 wins but they lost the head-to-head, and would only have one marquee win vs. Delaware's two.

VT Wildcat Fan53
October 18th, 2009, 09:48 AM
Richmond: 6-0 with wins over FBS Duke and Delaware, three tough games left vs. UMass, Villanova, and William & Mary (all at home)...they are in.

Villanova: 6-1 with wins over FBS Temple and William & Mary, lone loss is @ New Hampshire, two tough games left @ Richmond and vs. Delaware...they are in

New Hampshire: 5-1 with wins over FBS Ball St. and Villanova, lone loss @ UMass, one tough game left @ William & Mary...they are in

William & Mary: 5-1 with wins over FBS Virginia and Delaware, lone loss @ Villanova, two tough games left vs. New Hampshire and @ Richmond...they are in

Delaware: 5-2 with win over UMass, two losses vs Richmond and William & Mary, two tough games left @ Navy and @ Villanova...win one of the two tough games...they'd be in

That brings me to the team I think would be left out:

UMass: 4-2 with win over New Hampshire, two losses vs. Delaware and FBS Kansas State, one tough game left @ Richmond...they could have 8 D-1 wins vs. Delaware's 7 D-1 wins but they lost the head-to-head, and would only have one marquee win vs. Delaware's two.

If any CAA team finishes the gauntlet at 8-3 (especially with only 2 FCS losses, ie: 8-2 vs. its classification brethren), it would be disappointing to see them left out. But, ... it will likely happen IF we see 6 CAA teams at 8-3 or better.... there will be renewed outcry for the league to split, especially when ODU becomes a full member, ....

Ud1Hens
October 18th, 2009, 10:11 AM
If any CAA team finishes the gauntlet at 8-3 (especially with only 2 FCS losses, ie: 8-2 vs. its classification brethren), it would be disappointing to see them left out. But, ... it will likely happen IF we see 6 CAA teams at 8-3 or better.... there will be renewed outcry for the league to split, especially when ODU becomes a full member, ....

I couldn't agree more. Without a league split you have 6-7 teams that do great OOC and take their losses in conference causing 3 or more 4 losses.

KAUMASS
October 18th, 2009, 10:12 AM
Richmond: 6-0 with wins over FBS Duke and Delaware, three tough games left vs. UMass, Villanova, and William & Mary (all at home)...they are in.

Villanova: 6-1 with wins over FBS Temple and William & Mary, lone loss is @ New Hampshire, two tough games left @ Richmond and vs. Delaware...they are in

New Hampshire: 5-1 with wins over FBS Ball St. and Villanova, lone loss @ UMass, one tough game left @ William & Mary...they are in

William & Mary: 5-1 with wins over FBS Virginia and Delaware, lone loss @ Villanova, two tough games left vs. New Hampshire and @ Richmond...they are in

Delaware: 5-2 with win over UMass, two losses vs Richmond and William & Mary, two tough games left @ Navy and @ Villanova...win one of the two tough games...they'd be in

That brings me to the team I think would be left out:

UMass: 4-2 with win over New Hampshire, two losses vs. Delaware and FBS Kansas State, one tough game left @ Richmond...they could have 8 D-1 wins vs. Delaware's 7 D-1 wins but they lost the head-to-head, and would only have one marquee win vs. Delaware's two.

Good analysis as of right now..although, I'm not betting on any one team. UNH looks like the easiest road..Hofstra, Maine & JMU are jeckly and hyde this year and will through monkey wrenches into the equation of who makes the playoffs this year. Hofstra is going to give UNH fits at Hofstra next week. UR will certainly have their hands full with UMass, Villanova & W&M.

Watch out for a URI upset if there is a bad weather game..they have come up with some wild wins in bad weather the last few years...

I don't see Northeastern or Towson knocking anybody off..

Some great football left to be played. Great drama to unfold over the next month!!

tribe_pride
October 18th, 2009, 10:19 AM
I am kind of scared that JMU is not considered a tough team any more (by the above analysis - they have hurt the Tribe when the Tribe was considered a better team in the past). I sure hope that the Tribe is not overlooking them. Win vs. JMU and then beat URI and Towson and the Tribe will have its 8 wins going in to the last 2 home vs. UNH and @Richmond. Don't want to leave it up to those 2 games.

OL FU
October 18th, 2009, 10:20 AM
No offense, but I am hoping it doesn't happen. Don't take it the wrong way because I certainly think the CAA is heads above the other conferences this year, but 6 of 16 teams, 5 of 8 at large spots, simply not good for FCS football. xtwocentsx

Doesn't mean it shouldn't happen if there are that many 8-3 teams.

I'm guessing Umass and UD fall outxthumbsupx

Dane96
October 18th, 2009, 10:20 AM
Richmond: 6-0 with wins over FBS Duke and Delaware, three tough games left vs. UMass, Villanova, and William & Mary (all at home)...they are in.

Villanova: 6-1 with wins over FBS Temple and William & Mary, lone loss is @ New Hampshire, two tough games left @ Richmond and vs. Delaware...they are in

New Hampshire: 5-1 with wins over FBS Ball St. and Villanova, lone loss @ UMass, one tough game left @ William & Mary...they are in

William & Mary: 5-1 with wins over FBS Virginia and Delaware, lone loss @ Villanova, two tough games left vs. New Hampshire and @ Richmond...they are in

Delaware: 5-2 with win over UMass, two losses vs Richmond and William & Mary, two tough games left @ Navy and @ Villanova...win one of the two tough games...they'd be in

That brings me to the team I think would be left out:

UMass: 4-2 with win over New Hampshire, two losses vs. Delaware and FBS Kansas State, one tough game left @ Richmond...they could have 8 D-1 wins vs. Delaware's 7 D-1 wins but they lost the head-to-head, and would only have one marquee win vs. Delaware's two.


Not a chance an 8-3 UMASS team is left out in the cold with the same record (if they all finish that way) as all the other CAA teams.

BigHouseClosedEnd
October 18th, 2009, 10:22 AM
If any CAA team finishes the gauntlet at 8-3 (especially with only 2 FCS losses, ie: 8-2 vs. its classification brethren), it would be disappointing to see them left out. But, ... it will likely happen IF we see 6 CAA teams at 8-3 or better.... there will be renewed outcry for the league to split, especially when ODU becomes a full member, ....

I agree. If all 6 teams win 8 games, all 6 should be in the playoffs.

WestCoastAggie
October 18th, 2009, 10:26 AM
Not a chance an 8-3 UMASS team is left out in the cold with the same record (if they all finish that way) as all the other CAA teams.

It's a good chance. Especially with the Big Sky and The Valley also having good teams.

Dane96
October 18th, 2009, 10:34 AM
What would be the argument to leave them out?

I dont think its good for FCS to have 6 in...but if a team finishes 8-3 in the hands down toughest conference in the league...coupled with a CLOSE loss at a Big 12 school...how do you leave them out?

I have thought about this LOOOONG and hard (have way to many friends from UMASS and have been arguing this back and forth for two-weeks)...and I cannot see it, other than the committee not wanting to give 6 bids.

Selfishly, I hope that does occur...and I hope that happens next year, and the year after...and the CAA finally splits giving Albany and others a new home ;)

OL FU
October 18th, 2009, 10:51 AM
I agree. If all 6 teams win 8 games, all 6 should be in the playoffs.

I think it all depends. This year seems a little more muddled but let's look at last year. There were 4 teams that clearly belonged in the playoffs. There were two teams Maine and W&M that had very good arguments for getting in but it also seemed clear that there were not part of the top four. So the question is why put the fifth best team from a conference ( and I am not talking about five teams that are equal This is where one team is clearly not equal) in the playoffs.

This year the six seem fairly equal so the above argument loses a lot of ground. Not picking on UMass just using them as an example. They beat UNH, a very good football team. But let's suppose that Richmond blows them out and they win the rest. They have one very good FCS win against a playoff bound team and one blow out against number one and one semi blow out against Delaware. Assuming no one else stumbles badly wouldn't that make them 6th team in the conference who could not play the first or probably the fifth team close. I realize that all games are not equal and this is the hypothetical's of hypothetical's and I am not even saying that Umass fits this description but at what point do you say there is no point in taking that team.

Just asking at what point is there no point in taking what most people would agree is a team that is clearly in the middle third of the conference. xconfusedx

Ud1Hens
October 18th, 2009, 10:56 AM
They have one very good FCS win against a playoff bound team and one blow out against number one and one semi blow out against Delaware.

It was 37-6 after 3 quarters, there's nothing semi about that. I agree with your assessment, that's why if it is between UD and UMass, assuming no slip ups and all are eligible UD would be in ahead of them. Then it comes down to their resume vs other at larges.

WestCoastAggie
October 18th, 2009, 10:56 AM
Teams that could prevent 6 CAA teams from getting in:

Weber State
Northern Arizona
EWU (Pending Appeal)
McNeese State/Stephen F. Austin
App. State

Ud1Hens
October 18th, 2009, 10:58 AM
Teams that could prevent 6 CAA teams from getting in:

Weber State
Northern Arizona
EWU (Pending Appeal)
McNeese State/Stephen F. Austin
App. State

I see plenty of 'good' losses but where do any of them have even one win over a ranked FCS team?

Old Cage
October 18th, 2009, 10:59 AM
If UMass goes 8-3 and gets there by losing to Richmond and then winning out, we win the CAA North. Does that mean anything? Would the committee leave out an 8 and 3 CAA North or South winner that is 8 and 2 in FCS and undefeated in their division?

I wonder. Thoughts?

Guess we better beat The Spiders.

Cocky
October 18th, 2009, 11:04 AM
So we can pick ten this group?

Montana
Weber State
Northern Arizona
Montana State
Eastern Washington
South Carolina State
Morgan State
Florida A&M
South Dakota State
Southern Illinois
Northern Iowa
Youngstown State
Missouri State
Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Illinois
Tennessee State
Colgate
Lafayette
Holy Cross
Elon
Appalachian State
Furman
Georgia Southern
Chattanooga
Stephen F. Austin
Southeastern Louisiana
McNeese State

Ud1Hens
October 18th, 2009, 11:04 AM
If UMass goes 8-3 and gets there by losing to Richmond and then winning out, we win the CAA North. Does that mean anything? Would the committee leave out an 8 and 3 CAA North or South winner that is 8 and 2 in FCS and undefeated in their division?

I wonder. Thoughts?

Guess we better beat The Spiders.

Actually if you lose to Richmond you'd have 2 conference losses. If UNH wins out they'd have 1 conference loss and win the North. If they lose to say W & M they'd have 2 as well and you'd win the North. Granted there is only 1 Automatic bid there is no garentees. There resume should look better than most other at-larges to be strongly considered regardless of conference affliation

tribe_pride
October 18th, 2009, 11:08 AM
I think it all depends. This year seems a little more muddled but let's look at last year. There were 4 teams that clearly belonged in the playoffs. There were two teams Maine and W&M that had very good arguments for getting in but it also seemed clear that there were not part of the top four. So the question is why put the fifth best team from a conference ( and I am not talking about five teams that are equal This is where one team is clearly not equal) in the playoffs.


Both Maine and W&M only had 7 D-I wins last year and only 1 quality win. That is the difference.

OL FU
October 18th, 2009, 11:12 AM
If UMass goes 8-3 and gets there by losing to Richmond and then winning out, we win the CAA North. Does that mean anything? Would the committee leave out an 8 and 3 CAA North or South winner that is 8 and 2 in FCS and undefeated in their division?

I wonder. Thoughts?

Guess we better beat The Spiders.

UNH only has one loss right? Do they not win the north, How does this work?

UMass922
October 18th, 2009, 11:13 AM
This year the six seem fairly equal so the above argument loses a lot of ground. Not picking on UMass just using them as an example. They beat UNH, a very good football team. But let's suppose that Richmond blows them out and they win the rest. They have one very good FCS win against a playoff bound team and one blow out against number one and one semi blow out against Delaware. Assuming no one else stumbles badly wouldn't that make them 6th team in the conference who could not play the first or probably the fifth team close. I realize that all games are not equal and this is the hypothetical's of hypothetical's and I am not even saying that Umass fits this description but at what point do you say there is no point in taking that team.

I agree that under this scenario UMass is probably the odd team out. If we must lose at Richmond next week, I think it's very important that we at least play them close. And of course regardless of what happens against UR, there are still games looming with JMU, Hofstra, and Maine. All of those teams make me very nervous, and I don't even think I can say with total confidence yet that those are teams we're supposed to beat. I still don't feel I have a read on how good this UMass team really is.

Oh, and you can call the Delaware loss a "blowout" without the "semi." There were some serious garbage-time scoring going on in that game.

OL FU
October 18th, 2009, 11:14 AM
I agree that under this scenario UMass is probably the odd team out. If we must lose at Richmond next week, I think it's very important that we at least play them close. And of course regardless of what happens against UR, there are still games looming with JMU, Hofstra, and Maine. All of those teams make me very nervous, and I don't even think I can say with total confidence yet that those are teams we're supposed to beat. I still don't feel I have a read on how good this UMass team really is.

Oh, and you can call the Delaware loss a "blowout" without the "semi." There were some serious garbage-time scoring going on in that game.

OK two blow outsxthumbsupx


sorry:o

Dane96
October 18th, 2009, 11:18 AM
I agree that under this scenario UMass is probably the odd team out. If we must lose at Richmond next week, I think it's very important that we at least play them close. And of course regardless of what happens against UR, there are still games looming with JMU, Hofstra, and Maine. All of those teams make me very nervous, and I don't even think I can say with total confidence yet that those are teams we're supposed to beat. I still don't feel I have a read on how good this UMass team really is.

Oh, and you can call the Delaware loss a "blowout" without the "semi." There were some serious garbage-time scoring going on in that game.

I wouldnt worry about Maine. I watched both UMASS and Maine vs. Albany and its not even close. Your running game (like everyone else has so far) will wear them out in the second half.

Tough team...but cant close. Hofstra...I am not to high on this year. JMU will be the toughie.

PaladinFan
October 18th, 2009, 11:19 AM
Don't necessarily think it will happen. Don't have much of a national following if you relegate the entirety of the playoffs to the Mid-Atlantic.

Old Cage
October 18th, 2009, 11:30 AM
Sorry, I wasn't clear. I meant that we would have the best record in the North versus the North. That's why I said "Does that mean anything?".

OL FU
October 18th, 2009, 11:35 AM
Sorry, I wasn't clear. I meant that we would have the best record in the North versus the North. That's why I said "Does that mean anything?".

Sorry butxnonono2xxsmiley_wix

UMass922
October 18th, 2009, 11:41 AM
I wouldnt worry about Maine. I watched both UMASS and Maine vs. Albany and its not even close. Your running game (like everyone else has so far) will wear them out in the second half.

Tough team...but cant close. Hofstra...I am not to high on this year. JMU will be the toughie.

You're probably right about Maine . . . @Hofstra to close out the season has tripped us up in the past, though, so I know I'm going to be nervous about that one regardless. As for JMU, I'm very glad we have that game at home.

Of course, we still haven't had the inevitable New England "weather" game yet, either; it seems we're required to play one of those every year, and it's always something of a wild card. We still have three games left to play in New England, so I'm sure we're due for it . . .

Eight Legger
October 18th, 2009, 12:16 PM
This will work itself out. Six CAA teams won't make it, and my guess is that either Delaware or UMass will be in, but not both.

yorkcountyUNHfan
October 18th, 2009, 12:56 PM
UNH only has one loss right? Do they not win the north, How does this work?

The CAA only recognizes the one champion. North or South does not matter.

OL FU
October 18th, 2009, 01:01 PM
The CAA only recognizes the one champion. North or South does not matter.

I knew thatxnodx I did xnodx I really did know thatxnodxxnodx



:o:D

theasushow
October 18th, 2009, 01:29 PM
No offense, but I am hoping it doesn't happen. Don't take it the wrong way because I certainly think the CAA is heads above the other conferences this year, but 6 of 16 teams, 5 of 8 at large spots, simply not good for FCS football. xtwocentsx

Doesn't mean it shouldn't happen if there are that many 8-3 teams.

I'm guessing Umass and UD fall outxthumbsupx

I agree. It be like the entire NFC south making the NFL playoffs.

GannonFan
October 18th, 2009, 02:06 PM
I don't see anyway that the CAA gets 6 teams in, under the current setup. Once it goes to 20 teams, you could see upwards of 7 CAA teams, but we aren't there yet. If everything plays out and UMass and UD are at 8-3 with the other 4 being better than that, UMass is going to be the odd team out based on the head to head matchup going so heavily in UD's favor. But, both UMass and UD have a lot of work to do before they both get to 8-3.

And if UD beats Navy in November, it's possible that there could be 5 CAA teams in the playoffs and all 5 of those teams beat a FBS team - regardless of who you play, that's pretty impressive.

ccd494
October 18th, 2009, 02:33 PM
Not taking all 6 CAA at large candidates just because they are from one conference, despite their standing as 6 of the best 16 teams in the country, reeks of socialism.

The CAA: defenders of democracy, capitalism and the American way.

xpeacex xpeacex xhurrayx xhurrayx xsmileyclapx xsmileyclapx

Hoyadestroya85
October 18th, 2009, 02:34 PM
The good question is what happens if New Hampshire, Richmond and Villanova all have only one loss at the end of the season.. Does that warrant three seeds for the CAA?

yorkcountyUNHfan
October 18th, 2009, 02:39 PM
WM or UNH will have at least 2 losses

Hoyadestroya85
October 18th, 2009, 02:45 PM
WM or UNH will have at least 2 losses

I corrected myself, it's forseeable that UNH could only have one loss though

FCS Go!
October 18th, 2009, 02:46 PM
Not taking all 6 CAA at large candidates just because they are from one conference, despite their standing as 6 of the best 16 teams in the country, reeks of socialism.

The CAA: defenders of democracy, capitalism and the American way.

xpeacex xpeacex xhurrayx xhurrayx xsmileyclapx xsmileyclapx

http://www.motherjones.com/files/resized/files/legacy/news/outfront/2007/11/outfront-conspiracy-watch-tin-foil-hat-big.300wide.300high.jpg

WMTribe90
October 18th, 2009, 02:49 PM
If this plays out as described, I think it will came down to UMass and/or Delaware. Depending on what happens in the SoCon, Big Sky and Southland all six CAA teams may be deserving of at-large bids. However, assuming we only get five, I'm not so sure UD gets in over UMass.

The committee would have to decide what is more important. Head to head, conference record, or number of DI wins. Right now UD has two conference losses to UMass's one.

Keep in mind the committee made the PC move last year to include Maine and not WM to produce a more equitable ratio of CAA South and CAA North participants. Could easily see them bypass a fourth CAA South team for the second CAA North team.

Jackman
October 18th, 2009, 02:54 PM
This doesn't happen in a vacuum guys, there are two parts to consider:

#1 - The top 6 CAA teams need to win the games they're supposed to win. And in Delaware's case, they need to win at least one game in which they probably won't be favored (@Navy or @Nova).

#2 - We need the rest of the major FCS conferences not to produce too many (playoff eligible) teams with good records. If the MVC, Big Sky, SoCon and Southland can produce eight 8-3 or better teams that are playoff eligible (might have to be 9-2 in the case of the Southland) opposite six 8-3 or better CAA teams, this board is going down on playoff selection day. There will be blood.

Ud1Hens
October 18th, 2009, 02:56 PM
I'm not so sure UD gets in over UMass.

The committee would have to decide what is more important. Head to head, conference record, or number of DI wins. Right now UD has two conference losses to UMass's one.

If UMass got in over UD that would be laughable. UD was up 37-6 after 3 quarters before calling off the dogs. They would not only have a head to head win but would have a win over Nova or Navy. I'd take the team that laid the wood to the other head to head and has an additional marquee victory. Plus UD draws more for a home playoff game.

BDKJMU
October 18th, 2009, 03:07 PM
Both Maine and W&M only had 7 D-I wins last year and only 1 quality win. That is the difference.

Maine had 8 Div I wins last season. W&M had 7. That was the difference maker.

EKUSteve
October 18th, 2009, 03:54 PM
The is one scenario that the OVC would get two in. I doubt it will happen, but it is possible. That scenario is that both EKU and EIU win out their conference games. In that case, EKU would win the conference on the head to head against EIU. EKU would most likely 8 - 3 (still have two OOC games in Nov against Kentucky (probably a loss) and WCU (probably a win) and EIU would be 9 - 2.

Not sure how likely that either EKU or EIU beat Jax St at their place, but it is a scenario in play that could mess up the 6 CAA scenario.

appstate38
October 18th, 2009, 04:12 PM
seems like we have this discussion every year and this year will be no different in terms of how many CAA teams get in. I say 5 for sure!

Redbird Ray
October 18th, 2009, 06:02 PM
If the CAA gets 6 teams I am going to murder someone on the east coast.

jstclmet
October 18th, 2009, 06:18 PM
For me , the CAA doesn't look as good as they did last year.

To me, the more CAA teams, the merrier. Would love to get a crack at W&M, UMASS, UNH, Nova, or UD at Wash/Griz. I think those would be great games. A few in there would be Griz blowouts. I think you CAA folks know which of those would be.

I beg to differ. Last year it was JMU, Nova, UR, & UNH, with Maine getting the 4th AL. JMU was clearly the strongest and most feared program. 10 - 1 going into the playoffs and the #1 seed.

This year it could be UR, 11 - 0 and the #1 seed, but Nova, UNH, W&M are a lot stronger this season. If UMass or UD makes it to the playoffs, they would have earned their spot, and would be equally dangerous.

I don't see how Montana could stay with any CAA team that makes the playoffs. It may well be a blowout, but it won't be in Montana's favor.

I wouldn't put too much stock in home field advantage either.

Jackman
October 18th, 2009, 06:32 PM
The LOUDNESS in Wash/Griz definitely played a role in UMass only beating Montana by 2 the last time we were there.

nevadagriz
October 18th, 2009, 06:46 PM
I beg to differ. Last year it was JMU, Nova, UR, & UNH, with Maine getting the 4th AL. JMU was clearly the strongest and most feared program. 10 - 1 going into the playoffs and the #1 seed.

This year it could be UR, 11 - 0 and the #1 seed, but Nova, UNH, W&M are a lot stronger this season. If UMass or UD makes it to the playoffs, they would have earned their spot, and would be equally dangerous.

I don't see how Montana could stay with any CAA team that makes the playoffs. It may well be a blowout, but it won't be in Montana's favor.

I wouldn't put too much stock in home field advantage either.


Yeah Montana could never hang with a CAA team, hell look what happened when they playeed the number one team in the nation last year JMU at there home field!
jstclmet do you even pay attention to FCS football?????

Oh the mighty CAA ! It would be a honor just be one the same field as a CAA team even if they are going to beat the Griz by 50+

State Line Liquors
October 18th, 2009, 06:47 PM
For me , the CAA doesn't look as good as they did last year.

Lost of games left to be played.

To me, the more CAA teams, the merrier. Would love to get a crack at W&M, UMASS, UNH, Nova, or UD at Wash/Griz. I think those would be great games. A few in there would be Griz blowouts. I think you CAA folks know which of those would be.

Richmond probably would not have to travel out west out of all the CAA teams. Not really looking forward to playing them again. Booby Hack has lots of trouble beating southern teams at home in the playoffs.

xblahblahx

What about the conference makes you think they're not as good as last year? Typically when making a comment like that, a person actually plans on finishing the thought with justification for it.

Schfourteenteen
October 18th, 2009, 07:12 PM
It's all the FBS wins and the top 6 teams having 0 OOC FCS losses. Theyre just not that good.

nevadagriz
October 18th, 2009, 07:14 PM
What southern teams have the Griz struggled with other then Wofford at WGS?
Most southland teams the griz have done ok against. Umass, Poly, and WIU are not southern teams.
The CAA is not down just a shuffling of power. Some CAA fans do need to remember that there are other teams and other conferences that play football too. Some just as good as they doxthumbsupx

UNH_Alum_In_CT
October 18th, 2009, 07:40 PM
I don't see anyway that the CAA gets 6 teams in, under the current setup. Once it goes to 20 teams, you could see upwards of 7 CAA teams, but we aren't there yet. If everything plays out and UMass and UD are at 8-3 with the other 4 being better than that, UMass is going to be the odd team out based on the head to head matchup going so heavily in UD's favor. But, both UMass and UD have a lot of work to do before they both get to 8-3.

And if UD beats Navy in November, it's possible that there could be 5 CAA teams in the playoffs and all 5 of those teams beat a FBS team - regardless of who you play, that's pretty impressive.


If this plays out as described, I think it will came down to UMass and/or Delaware. Depending on what happens in the SoCon, Big Sky and Southland all six CAA teams may be deserving of at-large bids. However, assuming we only get five, I'm not so sure UD gets in over UMass.

The committee would have to decide what is more important. Head to head, conference record, or number of DI wins. Right now UD has two conference losses to UMass's one.

Keep in mind the committee made the PC move last year to include Maine and not WM to produce a more equitable ratio of CAA South and CAA North participants. Could easily see them bypass a fourth CAA South team for the second CAA North team.


Maine had 8 Div I wins last season. W&M had 7. That was the difference maker.

Nov. 9, 1996 UNH 34 Villanova 0 (in Durham). Both teams end up with 8-3 records. Nova gets a playoff bid, UNH does not. Despite that arse whipping, in November mind you, that head to head didn't mean squat.

Based on that and the committee's choice last year seemingly based on Maine having one more D-I win, I don't think I'd view Delaware (7-3 D-I) as a slam dunk for a bid over UMass (8-3 D-I). xtwocentsx This is just my objective view as I'm hardly a Minutemen fan. ;) :p

And I know that my own team has to take care of business in a bunch of games where we'll be favorites during the stretch of year with the worst weather conditions. Then we get to play the most difficult CAA team for us in W&M as well as our rivalry game against Maine. I'm not making any assumptions yet. xpeacex

UNH_Alum_In_CT
October 18th, 2009, 08:15 PM
What southern teams have the Griz struggled with other then Wofford at WGS?
Most southland teams the griz have done ok against. Umass, Poly, and WIU are not southern teams.
The CAA is not down just a shuffling of power. Some CAA fans do need to remember that there are other teams and other conferences that play football too. Some just as good as they doxthumbsupx

I think the vast majority of CAA fans are quite objective as they view playoff selection criteria and state opinions based on facts rather than just talking smack. Personally, I've seen UNH play GaSoU, Colgate, Hampton, UNI (three times) and SIU in person during the playoffs so I'm well aware of how good teams from other conferences are. If anything, many fans from other leagues can't seem to grasp certain criteria like how many top 25 teams CAA teams play in their league schedule. UNH will likely have a top five, a top ten and a top twenty (at the time). The South teams will probably play four or five top 25 teams! And how about the failure to grasp the seven D-I wins threshold (the "guideline" that has proven to be just about a cold stone lock) and how when all the numbers shake out, the CAA teams simply come out ahead. Patriot, MEAC and OVC teams with gaudy records and their current OOC schedules aren't going to match up against 8-3 teams from the power conferences. Especially those with eight D-I wins and a FBS win.

Frankly, if there are a bunch of 8-3 candidates with all D-I wins from the SoCon, MVFC, Big Sky and Southland, then there is less chance of more than four CAA teams getting bids. How many will reach that criteria? Some have chosen $$$$ over a better chance at the playoffs by scheduling two FBS games. That was a conscious choice that must be lived with. There are a few good teams that are ineligible. How many "eligibles" will have a resume that tops the CAA strength of schedule and FBS wins. Right now I can't foresee any other conference with a 7-4 team that can match up with a CAA team's resume. I'm not sure many at 8-3 other than UNI will be chosen over a 8-3 CAA with a FBS win.

I'll probably be viewed as arrogant, but all I'm trying to do is state the facts as I see them. Some of my fellow CAA posters have given very good examples of how and why a CAA team gets chosen over teams from other conferences. Just for the record, the football selection criteria is the same as what is used in basketball. Power conferences get the vast majority of the at large berths. There are no gratuitous selections made to balance things out or give someone else an opportunity. All those Cinderellas that America loves make the tournament the same exact way as in FCS Football. xtwocentsx

Tribe4SF
October 18th, 2009, 08:29 PM
To me, the more CAA teams, the merrier. Would love to get a crack at W&M, UMASS, UNH, Nova, or UD at Wash/Griz. I think those would be great games. A few in there would be Griz blowouts. I think you CAA folks know which of those would be.


I don't know. Which would be blowouts for the Griz?

Chi-towngrizzly
October 18th, 2009, 09:11 PM
What southern teams have the Griz struggled with other then Wofford at WGS?
Most southland teams the griz have done ok against. Umass, Poly, and WIU are not southern teams.
The CAA is not down just a shuffling of power. Some CAA fans do need to remember that there are other teams and other conferences that play football too. Some just as good as they doxthumbsupx

I wasn't just talking about just wgs losses. Bobby has playoff losses to jmu, ur, and wofford. Those southern teams beat the three best teams that Hauck has coached.

Chi-towngrizzly
October 18th, 2009, 09:57 PM
I don't know. Which would be blowouts for the Griz?

ne1 from the caa north.

Jackman
October 19th, 2009, 12:34 AM
Now you're just trying to set us CAA guys against each other. Don't make us come back out there.

http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m172/weirisujin/umass/BDD_umass_baylark_12806.jpg

Chi-towngrizzly
October 19th, 2009, 02:44 AM
Now you're just trying to set us CAA guys against each other. Don't make us come back out there.

http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m172/weirisujin/umass/BDD_umass_baylark_12806.jpg

I look forward most to a umass rematch game. Grizzlies like their revenge served cold. We may not be NC caliber this year, but we're good enough to end most of the CAA potential playoff teams' seasons. The Griz offense is very explosive, the good news for the playoff field is that this is the worst Griz defense I have ever seen. Grind it out teams will be blown out. Balanced match ups will be high scoring nail biters.

Native
October 19th, 2009, 03:34 AM
I think the vast majority of CAA fans are quite objective as they view playoff selection criteria and state opinions based on facts rather than just talking smack. Personally, I've seen UNH play GaSoU, Colgate, Hampton, UNI (three times) and SIU in person during the playoffs so I'm well aware of how good teams from other conferences are. If anything, many fans from other leagues can't seem to grasp certain criteria like how many top 25 teams CAA teams play in their league schedule. UNH will likely have a top five, a top ten and a top twenty (at the time). The South teams will probably play four or five top 25 teams! And how about the failure to grasp the seven D-I wins threshold (the "guideline" that has proven to be just about a cold stone lock) and how when all the numbers shake out, the CAA teams simply come out ahead. Patriot, MEAC and OVC teams with gaudy records and their current OOC schedules aren't going to match up against 8-3 teams from the power conferences. Especially those with eight D-I wins and a FBS win.

Frankly, if there are a bunch of 8-3 candidates with all D-I wins from the SoCon, MVFC, Big Sky and Southland, then there is less chance of more than four CAA teams getting bids. How many will reach that criteria? Some have chosen $$$$ over a better chance at the playoffs by scheduling two FBS games. That was a conscious choice that must be lived with. There are a few good teams that are ineligible. How many "eligibles" will have a resume that tops the CAA strength of schedule and FBS wins. Right now I can't foresee any other conference with a 7-4 team that can match up with a CAA team's resume. I'm not sure many at 8-3 other than UNI will be chosen over a 8-3 CAA with a FBS win.

I'll probably be viewed as arrogant, but all I'm trying to do is state the facts as I see them. Some of my fellow CAA posters have given very good examples of how and why a CAA team gets chosen over teams from other conferences. Just for the record, the football selection criteria is the same as what is used in basketball. Power conferences get the vast majority of the at large berths. There are no gratuitous selections made to balance things out or give someone else an opportunity. All those Cinderellas that America loves make the tournament the same exact way as in FCS Football. xtwocentsx

Your logic is sound, not arrogant, but perhaps your math is a bit faulty. How many CAA teams can possibly finish 8-3 or better? When you look at the schedules, not more than five. Richmond, Villanova, William & Mary and UNH already have 5 or six DI wins. Delaware and UMass have only 4 wins each. Delaware must win 3 of 4 among upcoming JMU, Hofstra, Navy and Villanova games - just to get to 7 wins. UMass has a better shot, facing Richmond, Maine, N'eastern, JMU, and Hofstra.

At the end of the season, a 7-4 Weber State with three top 25 wins (Eastern Washington, Cal Poly, Northern Arizona) - despite the conscious choice to play two FBS $$$games - would be at least a tossup with other 7-4 teams.

Native
October 19th, 2009, 04:11 AM
I see plenty of 'good' losses but where do any of them have even one win over a ranked FCS team?

Weber has a 31-13 win over #14 EWU and is scheduled to play #3 Montana, #18 Cal Poly and soon-to-be- ranked Northern Arizona. I believe that Montana State may have been ranked at the time that NAU beat them a couple of weeks ago.

Native
October 19th, 2009, 04:17 AM
Yes they will. We still have tough games with Navy & villanova. We need to win 3 of our last 4 to get in.

Nope. West Chester is not DI. 3 of 4 will get UD to only 6 DI wins.

cougarpines
October 19th, 2009, 05:58 AM
Nope. West Chester is not DI. 3 of 4 will get UD to only 6 DI wins.

Need to check my math but:

Wins:
Del. State
Main
U Mass
Towson

I count Four

To play:
JMU
Hofstra
Navy
Villanova

Win 3 of these and I think that equals 7

State Line Liquors
October 19th, 2009, 06:16 AM
Need to check my math but:

Wins:
Del. State
Main
U Mass
Towson

I count Four

To play:
JMU
Hofstra
Navy
Villanova

Win 3 of these and I think that equals 7


That's correct. If we win 3 out of the remaining 4 games our record overall is 8-3, but only 7 wins against D1 competition. The gentleman from California is wrong.

OL FU
October 19th, 2009, 07:32 AM
Enjoyable thread, more reason that smack so farxthumbsupx

Hats off the CAA for even being able to consider this. xthumbsupx

andy7171
October 19th, 2009, 07:40 AM
I don't see Northeastern or Towson knocking anybody off..


Well, somebody is going to have to win this game this weekend. Is this going to be the game of the week?

HensRock
October 19th, 2009, 08:06 AM
Looks very conceivable there could be as many as 6 CAA teams with records of 8-3 or better.


It always looks that way at this time of year. It will all shake out as the CAA starts feeding on each other.

Dukie95
October 19th, 2009, 08:20 AM
It always looks that way at this time of year. It will all shake out as the CAA starts feeding on each other.

Yes, but this year is different because all the I-A wins means teams can absorb more losses than normal.

If we assume
1. Each of these 6 teams wins their home games against one another
2. Each of these 6 teams beats the other 6 CAA teams at home and on the road
3. Delaware beats Navy

We have this:

Richmond 11-0
W&M 9-2
Nova 9-2
Delaware 8-3

UNH 9-2
UMass 8-3

JMUNJ08
October 19th, 2009, 09:14 AM
Well, somebody is going to have to win this game this weekend. Is this going to be the game of the week?

Biggest toss up of the season to datexthumbsupx

JMUNJ08
October 19th, 2009, 09:15 AM
Yes, but this year is different because all the I-A wins means teams can absorb more losses than normal.

If we assume
1. Each of these 6 teams wins their home games against one another
2. Each of these 6 teams beats the other 6 CAA teams at home and on the road
3. Delaware beats Navy

We have this:

Richmond 11-0
W&M 9-2
Nova 9-2
Delaware 8-3

UNH 9-2
UMass 8-3

Very possible. I wouldn't want to be on the selection committee trying to justify a SoCo or Big Sky deserving to get in over any of them if this happens

danefan
October 19th, 2009, 09:24 AM
Yes, but this year is different because all the I-A wins means teams can absorb more losses than normal.

If we assume
1. Each of these 6 teams wins their home games against one another
2. Each of these 6 teams beats the other 6 CAA teams at home and on the road
3. Delaware beats Navy

We have this:

Richmond 11-0
W&M 9-2
Nova 9-2
Delaware 8-3

UNH 9-2
UMass 8-3

If that's the case, either Delaware or UMass will be home for Thanksgiving.

Delaware will be 7-3 in the eyes of the Committee.
But, to put UMass in over Delaware, the committee will have to ignore head-to-head.

Look at last year though: the only logical reason why Maine got in over W&M was because they had one more DI win. W&M had a better resume against common opponents.

So if thats how it shakes out this year, I can easily imagine UMass getting in from the North despite the head-to-head loss and Delaware not getting in, with the committee pointing to the 7 DI wins.

Dukie95
October 19th, 2009, 09:26 AM
If that's the case, either Delaware or UMass will be home for Thanksgiving.

Delaware will be 7-3 in the eyes of the Committee.
But, to put UMass in over Delaware, the committee will have to ignore head-to-head.

Look at last year though: the only logical reason why Maine got in over W&M was because they had one more DI win. W&M had a better resume against common opponents.

So if thats how it shakes out this year, I can easily imagine UMass getting in from the North despite the head-to-head loss and Delaware not getting in, with the committee pointing to the 7 DI wins.

Yes, that's possible.

On one hand UD will have a I-A win, but on the other, their best FCS win would be bubble Umass.

hill6903
October 19th, 2009, 08:00 PM
How's this for a crazy scenario, all 6 teams could end up at 9-2 with UMass taking the AQ.

Follow this:
Everyone beats the rest of the lower CAA teams.
UMass beats Richmond
UNH loses to W&M
Richmond beats W&M, loses to UMass and Villanova
Villanova beats Richmond, loses to Delaware
W&M beats UNH, loses to Richmond
Delaware beats Navy and Villanova

Leaves UMass 7-1 in conference, every else 6-2, and almost certainly everyone in the top 10.

MacThor
October 19th, 2009, 09:46 PM
Wow. Um, yeah if there are 6 9-2 teams, they're all getting in.

Ud1Hens
October 19th, 2009, 10:39 PM
If that's the case, either Delaware or UMass will be home for Thanksgiving.

Delaware will be 7-3 in the eyes of the Committee.
But, to put UMass in over Delaware, the committee will have to ignore head-to-head.


In the words of TO's publicist, "Delaware has 22,000 reasons they won't be left home on Thanksgiving." xsmiley_wix

soccerguy315
October 19th, 2009, 10:50 PM
wow... 6 teams at 9-2, that would be crazy...

obviously it probably won't happen, but crazy scenario.

BDKJMU
October 19th, 2009, 11:07 PM
I haven't read most of this 8 pages of blather, but anyone who thinks the CAA is going to have 6 teams at 8-3 or better needs to lay down their crack pipe.

1. The 6 being talked about still have 5 games against each other.

2. The next 3 best teams (JMU, Hofstra and Maine) have the capability to upset one of those top 6. For those top 6 top all finish 8-3 or better you have to ASSume:

JMU loses @ W&M
and
Hofstra loses at home to UNH
and
JMU loses @ UD
and
Maine loses at home to UMass
and
Hofstra loses @ UD
and
JMU loses @ UMass
and
Maine loses @ UNH
and
UD wins either @ Navy or @ Nova

3. I'll grant that the bottom 3 (Towson, URI, and Northeastern) are unlikely to pull an upset. BUT The CAA averages over one monster upset a year where a team that finishes with a losing record, including in conference, knocks off a playoff team, or gives a team what ends up being a 4th loss keeping them from the playoffs. Last yr there was none. But in 07' there was 3: 1-7 in CAA Towson over 7-1 in CAA semifinalist UR, 2-6 in CAA URI over 7-1 in CAA quarterfinalist UMass, and 2-6 in CAA Northeastern over playoff UNH. So now you have to ASSume in addition the above 7 games and UD knocking off either Navy or Nova, the following 8 also have to happen:
URI loses @ Nova
and
Northeastern loses @ UNH
and
Towson loses @ home to UR
and
URI loses at home to W&M
and
Northeastern loses @ UMass
and
URI loses @ UNH
and
Towson loses @ W&M
and
Towson loses at home to Nova

So for those top 6 to reach 8 and 3 you have to ASSume no upsets in the above 15 games AND UD upsets either Navy or Nova.

I will lay a straight up wager with anyone here that 6 CAA teams won't finish 8-3 or better (PM me if you want and have paypal). If 6 do, you win. If 6 don't, I win. I doubt anyone would take me up on that, because I would have a 90+% chance of winning.

Native
October 20th, 2009, 12:18 AM
I don't see anyway that the CAA gets 6 teams in, under the current setup. Once it goes to 20 teams, you could see upwards of 7 CAA teams, but we aren't there yet. If everything plays out and UMass and UD are at 8-3 with the other 4 being better than that, UMass is going to be the odd team out based on the head to head matchup going so heavily in UD's favor. But, both UMass and UD have a lot of work to do before they both get to 8-3.

And if UD beats Navy in November, it's possible that there could be 5 CAA teams in the playoffs and all 5 of those teams beat a FBS team - regardless of who you play, that's pretty impressive.

Ditto! xthumbsupx Impressive OOC wins!

Native
October 20th, 2009, 12:25 AM
Enjoyable thread, more reason than smack so farxthumbsupx

Hats off the CAA for even being able to consider this. xthumbsupx

Quite true! Congrats to the CAA for the impressive OOC wins this year!

Native
October 20th, 2009, 12:28 AM
That's correct. If we win 3 out of the remaining 4 games our record overall is 8-3, but only 7 wins against D1 competition. The gentleman from California is wrong.

You are quite right. Thank you for the correction. xthumbsupx

Dukie95
October 20th, 2009, 07:03 AM
I haven't read most of this 8 pages of blather, but anyone who thinks the CAA is going to have 6 teams at 8-3 or better needs to lay down their crack pipe.

1. The 6 being talked about still have 5 games against each other.

2. The next 3 best teams (JMU, Hofstra and Maine) have the capability to upset one of those top 6. For those top 6 top all finish 8-3 or better you have to ASSume:

JMU loses @ W&M
and
Hofstra loses at home to UNH
and
JMU loses @ UD
and
Maine loses at home to UMass
and
Hofstra loses @ UD
and
JMU loses @ UMass
and
Maine loses @ UNH
and
UD wins either @ Navy or @ Nova

3. I'll grant that the bottom 3 (Towson, URI, and Northeastern) are unlikely to pull an upset. BUT The CAA averages over one monster upset a year where a team that finishes with a losing record, including in conference, knocks off a playoff team, or gives a team what ends up being a 4th loss keeping them from the playoffs. Last yr there was none. But in 07' there was 3: 1-7 in CAA Towson over 7-1 in CAA semifinalist UR, 2-6 in CAA URI over 7-1 in CAA quarterfinalist UMass, and 2-6 in CAA Northeastern over playoff UNH. So now you have to ASSume in addition the above 7 games and UD knocking off either Navy or Nova, the following 8 also have to happen:
URI loses @ Nova
and
Northeastern loses @ UNH
and
Towson loses @ home to UR
and
URI loses at home to W&M
and
Northeastern loses @ UMass
and
URI loses @ UNH
and
Towson loses @ W&M
and
Towson loses at home to Nova

So for those top 6 to reach 8 and 3 you have to ASSume no upsets in the above 15 games AND UD upsets either Navy or Nova.

I will lay a straight up wager with anyone here that 6 CAA teams won't finish 8-3 or better (PM me if you want and have paypal). If 6 do, you win. If 6 don't, I win. I doubt anyone would take me up on that, because I would have a 90+% chance of winning.

Sure, the odds are against it happening, because you have to assume UD beats Navy, and I'd never put money on a I-AA over a I-A. However, it's not as unlikely as you make it out to be. I don't see JMU, Maine or Hofstra upsetting anyone (except maybe UMass at Maine).

89Hen
October 20th, 2009, 08:02 AM
If we assume
1. Each of these 6 teams wins their home games against one another
2. Each of these 6 teams beats the other 6 CAA teams at home and on the road
3. Delaware beats Navy
xeyebrowx Tall task. Navy is pretty good again this year and it's always a tough game.

89Hen
October 20th, 2009, 08:04 AM
How's this for a crazy scenario, all 6 teams could end up at 9-2 with UMass taking the AQ.
You just blew my mind. :p

yorkcountyUNHfan
October 20th, 2009, 11:04 AM
Sure, the odds are against it happening, because you have to assume UD beats Navy, and I'd never put money on a I-AA over a I-A. However, it's not as unlikely as you make it out to be. I don't see JMU, Maine or Hofstra upsetting anyone (except maybe UMass at Maine).

I would not be surprised at all to see one of those 3 teams beat a playoff team or two between the three of them before the end of the season.

Black Saturday
October 20th, 2009, 12:19 PM
Looks very conceivable there could be as many as 6 CAA teams with records of 8-3 or better.

Richmond, Nova, Wm and Mary, Delaware, UNH and UMass.

Will make Selection Sunday pretty interesting......

Thoughts??

I think the committee should just invite all the CAA to playoffs this year.

89Hen
October 20th, 2009, 12:33 PM
I think the committee should just invite all the CAA to playoffs this year.
Would simplify things. xthumbsupx

kkkk2008
October 20th, 2009, 12:33 PM
I think the committee should just invite all the CAA to playoffs this year.

Throw out the automatic qualifiers criteria; should help your cause.

RabidRabbit
October 20th, 2009, 12:56 PM
I see plenty of 'good' losses but where do any of them have even one win over a ranked FCS team?

Weber St. to be 8-3, needs to win out. That means wins vs MT and Cal Poly.

McNeese St. can only once more, but needs to be a co-champ, so may need to win out. App St, UCA wins then, if do so.

SFA can win out, or even lose one. Already beat McNeese & UCA.

Cal Poly can win out and be 7-3 (D-I), wins over Weber St. and SDSU.

App St. can afford one loss in SoCon. They really should be in as co-champs to get in. That means wins vs. GA Southern, Furman & Elon, especially Elon.

Does a 3rd place MVFC, 8-3 UNI get selected over a CAA team? (no top 25 FCS wins)

Does a 8-3 SDSU get selected over at CAA team. Means SDSU beats either UNI or SIU or a BCS team, U of Minn.

SIU get in if they're 7-3, with UNI win as only top 25 win?

JMUNJ08
October 20th, 2009, 01:12 PM
Weber St. to be 8-3, needs to win out. That means wins vs MT and Cal Poly.

McNeese St. can only once more, but needs to be a co-champ, so may need to win out. App St, UCA wins then, if do so.

SFA can win out, or even lose one. Already beat McNeese & UCA.

Cal Poly can win out and be 7-3 (D-I), wins over Weber St. and SDSU.

App St. can afford one loss in SoCon. They really should be in as co-champs to get in. That means wins vs. GA Southern, Furman & Elon, especially Elon.

Does a 3rd place MVFC, 8-3 UNI get selected over a CAA team? (no top 25 FCS wins)

Does a 8-3 SDSU get selected over at CAA team. Means SDSU beats either UNI or SIU or a BCS team, U of Minn.

SIU get in if they're 7-3, with UNI win as only top 25 win?

So many good teams that may have little quality this year besides their brand names. Surprising.

UNI was suppose to be #1 or 2 last week and now are on the cusp of being out? LOVE THE FCSxthumbsupx

BDKJMU
October 20th, 2009, 01:31 PM
Sure, the odds are against it happening, because you have to assume UD beats Navy, and I'd never put money on a I-AA over a I-A. However, it's not as unlikely as you make it out to be. I don't see JMU, Maine or Hofstra upsetting anyone (except maybe UMass at Maine).

Ok, excluding Umass @ Maine, thats 7 other games with JMU, Maine and Hofstra vs the top 6 where you're saying there will be no upset. Wanna make a wager on that?

tribe_pride
October 20th, 2009, 01:41 PM
Ok, excluding Umass @ Maine, thats 7 other games with JMU, Maine and Hofstra vs the top 6 where you're saying there will be no upset. Wanna make a wager on that?

Not me. I am really hoping that JMU stays down for 1 more week but they have spoiled too many Tribe seasons for me to fall for the JMU bad year thing

BDKJMU
November 2nd, 2009, 01:37 PM
I haven't read most of this 8 pages of blather, but anyone who thinks the CAA is going to have 6 teams at 8-3 or better needs to lay down their crack pipe.

1. The 6 being talked about still have 5 games against each other.

2. The next 3 best teams (JMU, Hofstra and Maine) have the capability to upset one of those top 6. For those top 6 top all finish 8-3 or better you have to ASSume:

JMU loses @ W&M
and
Hofstra loses at home to UNH
and
JMU loses @ UD
and
Maine loses at home to UMass
and
Hofstra loses @ UD
and
JMU loses @ UMass
and
Maine loses @ UNH
and
Hofstra loses at home to UMass
and
UD wins either @ Navy or @ Nova

3. I'll grant that the bottom 3 (Towson, URI, and Northeastern) are unlikely to pull an upset. BUT The CAA averages over one monster upset a year where a team that finishes with a losing record, including in conference, knocks off a playoff team, or gives a team what ends up being a 4th loss keeping them from the playoffs. Last yr there was none. But in 07' there was 3: 1-7 in CAA Towson over 7-1 in CAA semifinalist UR, 2-6 in CAA URI over 7-1 in CAA quarterfinalist UMass, and 2-6 in CAA Northeastern over playoff UNH. So now you have to ASSume in addition the above 7 games and UD knocking off either Navy or Nova, the following 8 also have to happen:
URI loses @ Nova
and
Northeastern loses @ UNH
and
Towson loses @ home to UR
and
URI loses at home to W&M
and
Northeastern loses @ UMass
and
URI loses @ UNH
and
Towson loses @ W&M
and
Towson loses at home to Nova

So for those top 6 to reach 8 and 3 you have to ASSume no upsets in the above 16 games AND UD upsets either Navy or Nova.

I will lay a straight up wager with anyone here that 6 CAA teams won't finish 8-3 or better (PM me if you want and have paypal). If 6 do, you win. If 6 don't, I win. I doubt anyone would take me up on that, because I would have a 90+% chance of winning.

I knew this was a retarded thread 2 weeks ago. If people would have just waited 2 weeks, you wouldn't have had 9 pages of this blather.

For those top 6 CAA teams 2 weeks ago I pointed out how asinine it was to ASSume 6 could get in, because those top 6 still had 8 games against the next 3 (JMU, Mine, and HU) where you had to ASSume there would be NO upsets. Plus you had to ASSume UD would pull an upset over Navy or Nova. Thats on top of ASSuming none of the top 6 suffered an upset to the bottom 3. I had a better chance of becoming POTUS than ALL of that happening.

Well, now 4 of those 8 games games with those previous top 6 vs JMU/Maine/HU have happened, and you've already had 2 upsets (JMU over UD and Maine over UMass). Good possibility you'll have 1-2 more in the next 4 (JMU beating UMass, or HU beating UD or HU beating UMass). Granted now, those wouldn't look like much of an upset anymore.

soccerguy315
November 2nd, 2009, 01:40 PM
yup... CAA is locked into its 4 teams.

Jackman
November 2nd, 2009, 02:04 PM
Indeed, no discussion of football would ever be necessary if we'd just wait until the season is over. Such a waste.

BDKJMU
November 2nd, 2009, 02:15 PM
Indeed, no discussion of football would ever be necessary if we'd just wait until the season is over. Such a waste.

No, that's not what I said. But there's no reason to have this massive speculation on something that 99+% wouldn't happen when waiting less than 2 weeks ended up confirming that.

GannonFan
November 2nd, 2009, 02:17 PM
yup... CAA is locked into its 4 teams.

Well, not quite - although unlikely, if UD wins out it will be very hard to keep UD out of the playoffs, especially after beating Navy and nova. UMass is defnitely done now, though.

Screamin_Eagle174
November 2nd, 2009, 02:20 PM
CAA circle jerk gone bad.


xpopcornx

SumItUp
November 2nd, 2009, 02:23 PM
Well, not quite - although unlikely, if UD wins out it will be very hard to keep UD out of the playoffs, especially after beating Navy and nova. UMass is defnitely done now, though.

If Delaware wins out, they will be in the playoffs. Navy would be the clincher.

seattlespider
November 2nd, 2009, 02:28 PM
Well, not quite - although unlikely, if UD wins out it will be very hard to keep UD out of the playoffs, especially after beating Navy and nova. UMass is defnitely done now, though.

Yep, Delaware gets in if they win out. Not really even up for debate, IMO.

93henfan
November 2nd, 2009, 02:31 PM
Yep, Delaware gets in if they win out. Not really even up for debate, IMO.

I don't think the possibility of us actually winning all three of those games should be up for debate either after Saturday's performance.xoopsx

But, stranger things have happened I guess.

GoBlueHens83
November 2nd, 2009, 02:50 PM
UD has been so up & down all year. You never know which team will show up for the game. It's hard to see the Hens putting together a 3 game winning streak against the likes of Navy & Villanova, Hofstra will not be easy either. I could be wrong, I hope I'm worng, but I just don't see us doing it.

seattlespider
November 2nd, 2009, 02:53 PM
I don't think the possibility of us actually winning all three of those games should be up for debate either after Saturday's performance.xoopsx

But, stranger things have happened I guess.

Hey, I didn't say it was going to be likely they'd win. xwhistlex

Dukie95
November 2nd, 2009, 02:54 PM
Well, the whole 6 teams in thing was based on past history where the teams "beat each other up". They haven't beaten each other up...the ones with the I-A wins have beaten up on the others.

We assumed there was more parity than there actually was.

kirkblitz
November 2nd, 2009, 02:54 PM
i have a suggestion, make the caa have their own playoffs and then have the rest of the ncaa have playoffs, pit the 2 winners together. I mean obviously the CAA is the greatest in the nation, every team should be in the playoffs

th0m
November 2nd, 2009, 03:16 PM
Superb idea. I wonder why this hasn't been thought of before... Although truthfully I don't see the need to pit the CAA champ against the non-CAA champ, that would just be cruel.

Sam Minuteman
November 2nd, 2009, 03:23 PM
The idea of two CAA vs everyone else is a little silly.... more reasonable is a final 4 with App State, Winner of the CAA, and two teams left from the rest of the country. That way the CAA could only get 1 team into the final 4, App. State no matter the record is there, and everyone else gets a chance too!!

Green and Yellow
November 2nd, 2009, 09:11 PM
Well, the whole 6 teams in thing was based on past history where the teams "beat each other up". They haven't beaten each other up...the ones with the I-A wins have beaten up on the others.

We assumed there was more parity than there actually was.

Four teams from the CAA. That is all you will get in my predictions.