Big Sky Predictions 10-17

[JALMOND]

Well, I head into this weekend's games at 31-4. Pretty dang good so far. But the games have all been pretty easy to pick, and with no upsets so far, makes the record look better than it should. But I am not one to complain. However, this week's slate is a little bit more difficult. Here are this week's games. All are my opinion and all are open to discussion.

EWU @ UM---Last week, the Eagles could not seem to do anything right at home against Weber State, while the Grizzlies had all they could handle from Cal Poly for three quarters before putting the game away in the fourth. Were the Eagles looking forward to the Grizzly game? The Eagles have had some success in Missoula, better than most of the other teams. Will it translate into a win? Maybe not...UM 30, EWU 24.

South Dakota @ MSU---The Bobcat defense seems to come up to every game. The problem is, the offense seems to not show up. Last week, playing a dome weather team in the snow and cold, the Bobcats could not stay with Northern Arizona. The defense held the potent Jack offense, yet no offense from the Bobcats. This week, they welcome the Great West's South Dakota, a transition team that would love to take advantage of the Bobcats inept offense. Problem is, they have to deal with the defense, which again, comes to the rescue...MSU 21, South Dakota 10.

NAU @ PSU---It is an understatement to say that both teams were relieved to leave behind the snow and cold with wins last week. The Jacks took care of Montana State, while the Vikings won at Northern Colorado. No snow this week in Portland, but plenty of rain. That should make the scores look more typical. Can the Vikings slow down the Jack attack? Can anyone?...NAU 42, PSU 24.

UNC @ ISU---In the course of the year as we wind down the schedule, there comes a time when there is a game like this. Whereas the Bears defense has played fine at times, the offense has struggled. That is a little bit better than the Bengals, of which the offense and defense have been lagging lately. Then again the Bengals have played a tough schedule so far, as if that would make a difference...UNC 13, ISU 7.

Sac State @ WSU---The Wildcats were able to get back on the right track last week, virtually dominating Eastern Washington last week. The Hornets got a win last week at home against Idaho State. The Wildcats are still maybe one game away from missing the playoffs, and playing the Hornets at home should be the respite they need. But not so fast, as the Hornets also are in the midst of the conference race, having one conference loss, just like the Wildcats. Just how good are the Hornets? Good enough to get the win at Ogden? Or just good enough to stay close?...WSU 31, Sac State 26.

[Bill Hanson]

ISU gets no love each and every year.

[JALMOND]

ISU gets no love each and every year.

I really tried to make ISU win this one. But with UNC's defensive performance against Eastern Washington earlier, and Portland State last week. I had to give the edge to the Bears.

[I Bleed Purple]

Sac St. seems to play us close in Sacramento, but not so much in Ogden. Although until I see Higgins not throw picks, we'll see what happens.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

EWU 33 @ UM 31

South Dakota 17 @ MSU 24

NAU 35 @ PSU 21

UNC 20 @ ISU 10

Sac State 17 @ WSU 34

[Screamin_Eagle174]

J, do you just rewrite each matchup for over here, or do you just go through the writeup you post over at championshipsubdivision.com and just reword it? Great job at keeping it fresh, either way.

[Poker Alan]

Really, MSU over South Dakota?

[Native]

...until I see Higgins not throw picks, we'll see what happens.

xthumbsupx

[JALMOND]

J, do you just rewrite each matchup for over here, or do you just go through the writeup you post over at championshipsubdivision.com and just reword it? Great job at keeping it fresh, either way.

"Aaahhh, Ancient Chinese Secret" xlolxxsmiley_wix

A lot of what I write is spontaneous. I don't write them out beforehand. One week, I'll post the first draft here and the next I'll post it there. Some corrections may be made between the two (over there I said EWU had "marginal success" against the Griz in Missoula, I changed it here) but the gist is the same. I'll also alter them to fit the audience. I know there are more Bobcat, Bear, and Wildcat posters here (also a lot more Great West posters that may be interested this week, too) so I am likely to expound more on those games here. Much more Griz posters on the other site so I'm likely to write more in regard to that game over there.

Basically, trying to meet the needs of the audience. xthumbsupx

[JALMOND]

Really, MSU over South Dakota?

What I kept looking at here was what USD has done so far, and I kept coming back to their 66-7 loss to Northern Iowa. I know the Bobcat offense is nowhere near that of the Panthers, but they do have a great defense. The MSU defense will keep them in the game, maybe win it for them.

[Silenoz]

Really, MSU over South Dakota?
MSU has to be the favorite in that game, homecoming faceplant or no

[Screamin_Eagle174]

"Aaahhh, Ancient Chinese Secret" xlolxxsmiley_wix

A lot of what I write is spontaneous. I don't write them out beforehand. One week, I'll post the first draft here and the next I'll post it there. Some corrections may be made between the two (over there I said EWU had "marginal success" against the Griz in Missoula, I changed it here) but the gist is the same. I'll also alter them to fit the audience. I know there are more Bobcat, Bear, and Wildcat posters here (also a lot more Great West posters that may be interested this week, too) so I am likely to expound more on those games here. Much more Griz posters on the other site so I'm likely to write more in regard to that game over there.

Basically, trying to meet the needs of the audience. xthumbsupx

You people pleaser!

[wapiti]

I agree with your picks this week. Good job.

[SoCalAg]

UM - 27, EWU - 14
MSU - 34, USD- 14
NAU - 31, PSU - 10
ISU - 14, UNC - 13
WSU - 37, SSU - 13

[GrizFanStuckInUtah]

Nice job as always Jalmond.


My picks, not as informed or explained at all though xlolx

I look for quite a few close ones this week with some good games going on really.
EWU @ UM Griz by 7

South Dakota @ MSU Cats by 4

NAU @ PSU Jacks by 10

UNC @ ISU Bears by 5

Sac State @ WSU Cats by 6

[GOKATS]

Good picks as always. The Eagles always play tough at wa/griz though, and if the griz cough the ball up like last week the Eagles could pull off an upset. AGS.........

[Native]

MSU has to be the favorite in that game, homecoming faceplant or no

Montana State is favored by 7.87 points at home using this week's Sagarin predictor ratings.

[DaGriz]

Good picks as always. The Eagles always play tough at wa/griz though, and if the griz cough the ball up like last week the Eagles could pull off an upset. AGS.........

My thoughts exactly. If the Griz are going to lose in the regular season this year it's going to be this weekend. I can't pick against them though. Go Griz.

I'm going with all the home teams this weekend. I think UNC looks terrible and even a bad ISU team at home will win.

MSU will rebound nicely with a big win. They always do when their back is against the wall.

Weber beats Sac. St. in a blow out. It's within 10 going into the 4th quarter when Smith breaks two long runs for TD's against a tired Sac. St. team.

I'm going with PSU because that is tough 3 game stretch for NAU. OT against Montana, then on the road at MSU's homecoming, now on the road at Portland St. I think that's too many tough games in a row.

[JALMOND]

My thoughts exactly. If the Griz are going to lose in the regular season this year it's going to be this weekend. I can't pick against them though. Go Griz.

I'm going with all the home teams this weekend. I think UNC looks terrible and even a bad ISU team at home will win.

MSU will rebound nicely with a big win. They always do when their back is against the wall.

Weber beats Sac. St. in a blow out. It's within 10 going into the 4th quarter when Smith breaks two long runs for TD's against a tired Sac. St. team.

I'm going with PSU because that is tough 3 game stretch for NAU. OT against Montana, then on the road at MSU's homecoming, now on the road at Portland St. I think that's too many tough games in a row.

After you were perfect I can't argue with any of your picks. My heart said to go with PSU over NAU, but I could not justify it, not with the only thing to slow down that NAU attack was the Bozeman weather last week. Also, Glanville could have a controversy on his hands if Kavanaugh leads the Vikings to victory in his first start (Hubel still listed as doubtful).

[catatac]

MSU has to be the favorite in that game, homecoming faceplant or noxlolxxlolxxlolx

That is a good way to put it... I was there I should know. Faceplant. Love it.

[UNCBears2010]

Montana 31-20, Griz are just too good at home

PSU 27-24, These are the last two teams to play UNC, and the Vikings impressed me slightly more

Montana 28-14, Can't pick a team that lost to another FCS school by 59

Weber 34-24, Sac keeps it close, but Weber pulls away in the 4th

UNC 7-2, UNC takes an interception back for a touchdown, but ISU only manages a safety. Neither offense scores.

[JackFan]

Montana 31, EWU 20 – Griz keep it going at home
MSU 17, South Dakota 14 – Cats win with defense
NAU 49 , PSU 35 – The Jacks air show gets up and out of that Bozeman weather and Flies again. If the Vikings are going to win its gonna be in a shootout.
UNC 21 , ISU – 14 I just cant find a win for the Bengals
WSU 28 , Sac State 10 – the wildcats take care of the ball and win the tunrover battle.

[SoCalAg]

thanks for coming out Sac State

[DaGriz]

My thoughts exactly. If the Griz are going to lose in the regular season this year it's going to be this weekend. I can't pick against them though. Go Griz.

I'm going with all the home teams this weekend. I think UNC looks terrible and even a bad ISU team at home will win.

MSU will rebound nicely with a big win. They always do when their back is against the wall.

Weber beats Sac. St. in a blow out. It's within 10 going into the 4th quarter when Smith breaks two long runs for TD's against a tired Sac. St. team.

I'm going with PSU because that is tough 3 game stretch for NAU. OT against Montana, then on the road at MSU's homecoming, now on the road at Portland St. I think that's too many tough games in a row.


5-0 last week, 3-2 this week and I was way off on my predictions. I suck. I really thought PSU was better then that. It will be interesting to see if Glanville's job is in jeopordy. I think they are worse with him then they were before he got there.

[JALMOND]

5-0 last week, 3-2 this week and I was way off on my predictions. I suck. I really thought PSU was better then that. It will be interesting to see if Glanville's job is in jeopordy. I think they are worse with him then they were before he got there.

Glanville is fine. All those in Portland who have been clamoring for Kavanaugh to play more got a painful dose of reality. Kavanaugh cannot throw the ball more than 30 yards, something that would have been helpful going against the eighth ranked passing defense in the conference. Engstrom came in to the game in the fourth quarter and the team looked more normal. Kavanaugh is a helluva running quarterback, but he cannot throw the ball deep.

[JALMOND]

Well, I head into this weekend's games at 31-4. Pretty dang good so far. But the games have all been pretty easy to pick, and with no upsets so far, makes the record look better than it should. But I am not one to complain. However, this week's slate is a little bit more difficult. Here are this week's games. All are my opinion and all are open to discussion.

EWU @ UM---Last week, the Eagles could not seem to do anything right at home against Weber State, while the Grizzlies had all they could handle from Cal Poly for three quarters before putting the game away in the fourth. Were the Eagles looking forward to the Grizzly game? The Eagles have had some success in Missoula, better than most of the other teams. Will it translate into a win? Maybe not...UM 30, EWU 24.

South Dakota @ MSU---The Bobcat defense seems to come up to every game. The problem is, the offense seems to not show up. Last week, playing a dome weather team in the snow and cold, the Bobcats could not stay with Northern Arizona. The defense held the potent Jack offense, yet no offense from the Bobcats. This week, they welcome the Great West's South Dakota, a transition team that would love to take advantage of the Bobcats inept offense. Problem is, they have to deal with the defense, which again, comes to the rescue...MSU 21, South Dakota 10.

NAU @ PSU---It is an understatement to say that both teams were relieved to leave behind the snow and cold with wins last week. The Jacks took care of Montana State, while the Vikings won at Northern Colorado. No snow this week in Portland, but plenty of rain. That should make the scores look more typical. Can the Vikings slow down the Jack attack? Can anyone?...NAU 42, PSU 24.

UNC @ ISU---In the course of the year as we wind down the schedule, there comes a time when there is a game like this. Whereas the Bears defense has played fine at times, the offense has struggled. That is a little bit better than the Bengals, of which the offense and defense have been lagging lately. Then again the Bengals have played a tough schedule so far, as if that would make a difference...UNC 13, ISU 7.

Sac State @ WSU---The Wildcats were able to get back on the right track last week, virtually dominating Eastern Washington last week. The Hornets got a win last week at home against Idaho State. The Wildcats are still maybe one game away from missing the playoffs, and playing the Hornets at home should be the respite they need. But not so fast, as the Hornets also are in the midst of the conference race, having one conference loss, just like the Wildcats. Just how good are the Hornets? Good enough to get the win at Ogden? Or just good enough to stay close?...WSU 31, Sac State 26.

Looks like 5-0 this week. 36-4 for the year. The scores were off (except for NAU/PSU), but I'll take the winners.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Correct Pick
Incorrect Pick
Actual Score
(-123) = Difference between predicted and actual point spread
APSE = Average Point Spread Error
_________________________________________________

EWU 33 @ UM 31
EWU 34 @ UM 41 (-9)

South Dakota 17 @ MSU 24
South Dakota 24 @ MSU 31 (-0)

NAU 35 @ PSU 21
NAU 44 @ PSU 23 (-7)

UNC 20 @ ISU 10
UNC 30 @ ISU 7 (-13)

Sac State 17 @ WSU 34
Sac State 10 @ WSU 49 (-22)
_________________________________________________

This week: 4-1
Last week: 2-3
Overall: 32-8
APSE this week: 10.2 pts
APSE last week: 11.6 pts
APSE overall: 12.1 pts

Even though I knew there was a good chance we’d lose to Montana, I also knew we we’re capable of pulling off the upset, which is why I’m not 5-0 this week. The game however, was everything it was built up to be, as Eastern came to play and kept the Griz faithful on the edge of their seats all game long. I was a little surprised to see Sac State get blown out so bad. The season isn’t over yet.