Patriot League Predictions

[TheValleyRaider]

This isn't for individual games, this is for the whole enchilada

Who walks away with the 2009 Patriot League crown? Who finishes behind them? Any guesses at Players/Coach of the Year? Is this is a year for an at-large birth?

Let's see some standings xreadx

[TheValleyRaider]

Some info on the teams for this season:

Capsules courtesy of the CSN Preview Magazine

Bucknell Bison
Location: Lewisburg, Pa.
Stadium: Christy Mathewson-Memorial Stadium (13,100)
Head Coach: Tim Landis (28-39, 81-91-1 overall)
Key Losses: QB Andrew Lair, RB Rashod Bumpers, OL Stephen Edwards, DL Marques Morgan, LB Todd Manjuck, P Phil Azarik, PK Will Carney
Key Returners: QB Marcello Trigg, RB A.J. Kizekai, RB Josh Lee, OL James Phelan, WR Cale Cadman, WR Shaun Pasternak, DL Will Braaf, DE Robert De La Rosa, LB Sam Nana-Sinkam, CB Akhiel White

Colgate Raiders
Location: Hamilton, N.Y.
Stadium: Andy Kerr Stadium (10,200)
Head Coach: Dick Biddle (104-49-0, 104-49-0 overall)
Key Losses: QB Alex Relph, RB Jordan Scott, FB Eric Tupta, OL Steve Jonas, OL Nick Hennessey, OL Rich Rosabella, DT Jim Meara, LB Ted Marshall, CB Chris Ekpo, FS David Morgan, DB Cody Williams, P/K Jacob Stein
Key Returners: QB Greg Sullivan, RB Nate Eachus, WR Pat Simonds, TE Adrien Schriefer, OL Zach Posey, DE Austin Douglas, DT Paul Mancuso, LB Greg Hadley, CB Wayne Moten

Fordham Rams
Location: Bronx, N.Y.
Stadium: Jack Coffey Field (7,000)
Head Coach: Tom Masella (16-18, 33-42 overall)
Key Losses: WR Rich Rayborn, TE Bo Marchand, OL Justin Sarabez, DE Fonzie Culver, DE Ryan Mehra, DT Greg DeMarco, FS Matt Loucks, RS Kennith Thompson, PK Adam Danko
Key Returners: QB John Skelton, RB Xavier Martin, WR Asa Lucas, TE Stephen Skelton, OL Robby Reis, DE Darzell Wright, LB James Crockett, LB Nick Magiera, SS Isiejah Allen

Georgetown Hoyas
Location: Washington, D.C.
Stadium: Multi-Sport Field (3,500)
Head Coach: Kevin Kelly (5-27, 5-27 overall)
Key Losses: RB Charlie Houghton, WR Kenny Mitchell, TE Collin Meodor, DE Atefiok Etekuren, DT Anthony DiTomasso, LB Nicholas Umar, LB Travis Zorilla
Key Returners: QB Keerome Lawrence, RB Keion Wade, RB Mychal Harrison, OL Dan Semler, DE Chudi Obinawu, LB Nick Parrish, DB Chris Rau, SS Travis Mack

Holy Cross Crusaders
Location: Worcester, Mass.
Stadium: Fitton Field (23,500)
Head Coach: Tom Gilmore (30-25, 30-25 overall)
Key Losses: RB Mike Kielt, RB Terrance Gass, WR Brent McDermott, WR Jon Brock, TE Ryan McGuire, OL Mason Olson, DE Bryan Walwyn, SS Darryl Brown, P Mike Holloway, PK Matt Partain
Key Returners: QB Dominic Randolph, RB Matt Belomo, WR Nick Cole, OL Aaron Jones, OL Chris Smith, DT Alex Carson, LB Marcus Rodriguez, LB Sean Lamkin, CB Anthony DiMichele SS Michael Wright

Lafayette Leopards
Location: Easton, Pa.
Stadium: Fisher Field (13,750)
Head Coach: Frank Tavani (52-50-0, 52-50-0 overall)
Key Losses: FB Joe Russo, WR Shaun Adair, WR Tim Watson, TE Mike Conte, OL D.J. Brown, OL Leo Plenski, DE Luke Schade, LB Andy Romans, CB Marvin Clecidor
Key Returners: QB Rob Curley, QB Marc Quilling, RB Maurice White, RB De’Andre Morrow, OL Ryan Hart-Predmore, NG Andrew Poulson, LB Mark Leggerio, FS Eric McGovern, PK Davis Rodriguez

Lehigh Mountain Hawks
Location: Bethlehem, Pa.
Stadium: Murray Goodman Stadium (16,000)
Head Coach: Andy Coen (16-17, 16-17 overall)
Key Losses: RB Matt McGowan, FB Adam Watson, WR Sekou Yansane, WR Mike Fitzgerald, TE Troy Healion, OL Kevin Bayani, DL Brian Jackson, LB Tim Diamond, FS Brendan VanAckeren, SS Quadir Carter, P/K Jason Leo
Key Returners: QB J.B. Clark, RB Jaren Walker, WR Craig Zurn, OL William Rackley, NT B.J. Benning, LB Matt Cohen, LB Al Pierce, CB Jarard Cribbs, CB John Kennedy

[TheValleyRaider]

Patriot League Preseason Poll
1. Holy Cross (7 first-place votes) 67
2. Colgate (6) 64
3. Lafayette 46
Lehigh (1) 46
5. Fordham 35
6. Bucknell 24
7. Georgetown 12

Patriot League Preseason Offensive Player of the Year: Dominic Randolph, QB, Holy Cross (Sr., 6'3, 223, Amelia, Ohio/St. Xavier)

Preseason Defensive Player of the Year: Mark Leggiero, LB, Lafayette (Sr., 5'11, 220, Bohemia, N.Y./ Connetequot)

CSN Magazine Prediction (courtesy of our own LFN)
1. Holy Cross
2. Fordham
3. Lehigh
4. Colgate
5. Lafayette
6. Bucknell
7. Georgetown

PLAYERS OF THE YEAR
OFFENSE: QB Dominic Randolph, Sr., Holy Cross
DEFENSE: LB Matt Cohen, Sr., Lehigh

[DFW HOYA]

Some info on the teams for this season:
Capsules courtesy of the CSN Preview Magazine
Georgetown Hoyas
Location: Washington, D.C.
Stadium: Multi-Sport Field (3,500)
Head Coach: Kevin Kelly (5-27, 5-27 overall)
Key Losses: RB Charlie Houghton, WR Kenny Mitchell, TE Collin Meodor, DE Atefiok Etekuren, DT Anthony DiTomasso, LB Nicholas Umar, LB Travis Zorilla
Key Returners: QB Keerome Lawrence, RB Keion Wade, RB Mychal Harrison, OL Dan Semler, DE Chudi Obinawu, LB Nick Parrish, DB Chris Rau, SS Travis Mack


Some corrections:

1. Multi-Sport Field seats 2,500, not 3,500:
http://guhoyas.cstv.com/facilities/gu-harbin-field.html

2. Charlie Houghton is on the roster.

3. Both Keion Wade and Mychal Harrison did not return to the roster.

[LUHawker]

CSN Magazine Prediction (courtesy of our own LFN)
1. Holy Cross
2. Fordham
3. Lehigh4. Colgate
5. Lafayette
6. Bucknell
7. Georgetown

PLAYERS OF THE YEAR
OFFENSE: QB Dominic Randolph, Sr., Holy Cross
DEFENSE: LB Matt Cohen, Sr., Lehigh

I think Chuck is being coy here.

Holy Cross if the obvious pick because of Randolph, but I think this year is a two horse race. Lehigh or Holy Cross. Not that there will be much, if any, difference among the five horsemen of the PL, but HC & LU could tie at the top.

I think the PL very well could get two bids this year.

[RichH2]

Will be a dogfight all the way.

HC #1 with Lehigh a close 2nd.

Randolph as OPOY

Cohen as DPOY

I look to Fordham to finally play up to talent could beat HC in a shootout.

Gate will play everyone tough but avg D and inexperienced OL holds them back
LC lack of depth QB avg at best ,D some star power but not as good as last year.

BU unknown quantity great skill players neither line that good but scheme will win them a couple

GU will upset a couple as they learn how to win, just hope it s not LU

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Holy Cross has the best offense in the league while the Hawks have the most dominating "D". I believe Lehigh can beat HC at home which will be the difference in the league. Also, having 7 home games should enable Lehigh to win maybe win a game or two they would otherwise be underdogs in. Colgate and Fordham will be a step behind with Lafayette in the 5-6, 6-5 range. I've picked Lehigh to be middle of the pack the last 2 years and i've been right. This year all things are pointing towards a very good year barring injury. I don't see anyway a team goes undefeated in the league. Two bids seem very possible if the league does well in their OOC play.

1. Lehigh (9-2, 6-1), Lehigh loses to Villanova and Fordham
2. Holy Cross (10-1, 6-1) loses to Lehigh
3. Colgate (8-3, 4-2)
4. Fordham (7-4, 3-3)
5. Lafayette (6-5, 3-3)
6. Bucknell (6-5, 2-4)
7. Georgetown (1-10, 0-6)

[DFW HOYA]

7. Georgetown (1-10, 0-6)

With 19 starters they're taking a step back? Explain.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

With 19 starters they're taking a step back? Explain.

Those 19 players simply are not good enough. I see only 4 games that the Hoyas even have a prayer to win, Howard, Bucknell, Marist and ODU. I believe the only one they will win is Howard. Georgetown did beat Marist last year so maybe that will give them 2 wins. They're almost certain to start 0-3 which might kill whatever confidence they have. Fact is Georgetown isn't getting any better.

[HoyaMetanoia]

With 19 starters they're taking a step back? Explain.

19 starters? Were McNally, Medina, Harrison and Wade all not starters?

[DFW HOYA]

19 starters? Were McNally, Medina, Harrison and Wade all not starters?

Not according to the PL pre-season media guide.

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/patr/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/2009GeorgetownHoyas.pdf

[ngineer]

We'll know where Lehigh stands pretty well after the first two weeks. I am always concerned about players looking ahead, and this year is no different with the Villanova game. CCSU is a good team and not to be overlooked in any way. Yet, they don't bring the 'marquee' name as does Villanova. Everyone likes to look at how we measure against the 'big' OOC schools and their scholarship recruits, well, CSSU and some of the other NEC teams have been using a decent recruiting edge the past couple years and are a totally different team than what everyone seems to remember 8 years ago (a 58-10 laugher at Goodman).
If we play a decent game and win solidly next week, and then go down to the Main Line and acquit ourselves well, then I might be willing to say 'we are the one', but until then, I see us in a jumble with 4 othe schools, all with some holes and all with some weapons.

[Fordham]

I have a similar take for Fordham, ng. We should really have an explosive offense throughout the year. If we show that our D has stepped up (and can finally produce turnovers), I'm going to feel very good about our chances. If we lose or squeak by in the first two weeks, though ... or just give up a ton of points, I'll be worried.

The one big plus for our schedule is that we get to play Colgate early and on their turf (Masella is 2 - 0 there over the past 4 years). Playing 'gate early is obviously much better than playing them late.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

I think Chuck is being coy here.

Holy Cross if the obvious pick because of Randolph, but I think this year is a two horse race. Lehigh or Holy Cross. Not that there will be much, if any, difference among the five horsemen of the PL, but HC & LU could tie at the top.

I think the PL very well could get two bids this year.

I've looked at the Patriot League's OOC schedule and because it is so heavily weighted with Ivy opponents, their OOC schedule too. There are just a few games that will allow the PL to post "statement wins". The Ivy only has a few such games so I just don't see how the second place PL team will have a resume to match teams from the power conferences. The reality is that those teams don't need statement wins because they will have played multiple games against top 25 teams during their regular season which the PL teams won't be able to match.

Bucknell: @Duquesne, Robert Morris, @Cornell, Marist, @Penn
Colgate: Monmouth, Stony Brook, @Dartmouth, Cornell, @Princeton
Fordham: @URI, Columbia, Old Dominion (ODU), Bryant, @Cornell
Georgetown: Yale, Howard, @ODU, Davidson, Richmond
Holy Cross: Sacred Heart, Harvard, @Northeastern, @Brown, Dartmouth
Lafayette: Liberty, Penn, @Yale, Columbia, @Harvard
Lehigh: CCSU, @Villanova, Princeton, Georgetown, Yale

AQ Conference teams
63 scholarship teams

Ivy League games against AQ League (not Patriot)/63 Scollie Teams:

Brown @ Stony Brook
Brown vs URI
Dartmouth @ UNH
Penn vs. Villanova
Princeton vs. The Citadel

Please explain how the 2nd place Patriot team would muster enough with those schedules to get an at large bid over for example a CAA team that has played 4-5 top 25 teams as well as a FBS team? Even if they were 10-1 or 9-2, I'm not sure they earn a bid over a power conference team that was 7-4 and played multiple top 25 teams and a FBS team. Just because they have a gaudy record? That hasn't worked for the Pioneer League. And I don't think the 2nd Place Patriot team would deserve a bid over an NEC or Big South team that met the criteria that has been set aside for them.

As a voter on the AGS poll, I never put too much stock into one win (or loss) because it can be an aberration. I want to see it followed up before I move a team much (in either direction). Unfortunately, the Patriot OOC slate (along with the Ivy OOC slate) doesn't give me much opportunity to see that. Unless Lehigh spanks Villanova or Georgetown beats Richmond or a couple of those five Ivy games are wins, I just don't see anything that will provide a bump up into the rankings.

I don't mean to pick on Holy Cross, but they're pretty universally viewed as a top title contender in the Patriot. Now within any league upsets happen and with only six league games, it is easier to get knocked out of first place by an upset. I understand playing Harvard and Dartmouth, long time regional rivals (not sure Brown falls into the same category xconfusedx), but when Northeastern is your CAA OOC game (instead of UMass like the past two years), why wouldn't you play Albany/CCSU/Monmouth for a NEC OOC game that would dramatically improve your SOS over Sacred Heart (NEC)? And why wouldn't you play UNH/Maine/URI instead of Brown if you were REALLY trying to provide an at large worthy resume to the committee in case of said upset? For about the same travel expense, a much better schedule could have been attained in case the AQ wasn't earned.

Not trying to talk smack, just providing my analysis of the situation. I hope it isn't true, but I fear the Patriot is happy with their AQ and content to play like minded schools rather than build at large worthy resumes. I would never find fault with that decision, but it would be sad to see that happen. I suppose we'll know soon enough with the scholarship decision. Of course in the coming years with expanded playoffs and more at large berths available...........xwhistlex xwhistlex

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

I've looked at the Patriot League's OOC schedule and because it is so heavily weighted with Ivy opponents, their OOC schedule too. There are just a few games that will allow the PL to post "statement wins". The Ivy only has a few such games so I just don't see how the second place PL team will have a resume to match teams from the power conferences. The reality is that those teams don't need statement wins because they will have played multiple games against top 25 teams during their regular season which the PL teams won't be able to match.

Bucknell: @Duquesne, Robert Morris, @Cornell, Marist, @Penn
Colgate: Monmouth, Stony Brook, @Dartmouth, Cornell, @Princeton
Fordham: @URI, Columbia, Old Dominion (ODU), Bryant, @Cornell
Georgetown: Yale, Howard, @ODU, Davidson, Richmond
Holy Cross: Sacred Heart, Harvard, @Northeastern, @Brown, Dartmouth
Lafayette: Liberty, Penn, @Yale, Columbia, @Harvard
Lehigh: CCSU, @Villanova, Princeton, Georgetown, Yale

AQ Conference teams
63 scholarship teams

Ivy League games against AQ League (not Patriot)/63 Scollie Teams:

Brown @ Stony Brook
Brown vs URI
Dartmouth @ UNH
Penn vs. Villanova
Princeton vs. The Citadel

Please explain how the 2nd place Patriot team would muster enough with those schedules to get an at large bid over for example a CAA team that has played 4-5 top 25 teams as well as a FBS team? Even if they were 10-1 or 9-2, I'm not sure they earn a bid over a power conference team that was 7-4 and played multiple top 25 teams and a FBS team. Just because they have a gaudy record? That hasn't worked for the Pioneer League. And I don't think the 2nd Place Patriot team would deserve a bid over an NEC or Big South team that met the criteria that has been set aside for them.

As a voter on the AGS poll, I never put too much stock into one win (or loss) because it can be an aberration. I want to see it followed up before I move a team much (in either direction). Unfortunately, the Patriot OOC slate (along with the Ivy OOC slate) doesn't give me much opportunity to see that. Unless Lehigh spanks Villanova or Georgetown beats Richmond or a couple of those five Ivy games are wins, I just don't see anything that will provide a bump up into the rankings.

I don't mean to pick on Holy Cross, but they're pretty universally viewed as a top title contender in the Patriot. Now within any league upsets happen and with only six league games, it is easier to get knocked out of first place by an upset. I understand playing Harvard and Dartmouth, long time regional rivals (not sure Brown falls into the same category xconfusedx), but when Northeastern is your CAA OOC game (instead of UMass like the past two years), why wouldn't you play Albany/CCSU/Monmouth for a NEC OOC game that would dramatically improve your SOS over Sacred Heart (NEC)? And why wouldn't you play UNH/Maine/URI instead of Brown if you were REALLY trying to provide an at large worthy resume to the committee in case of said upset? For about the same travel expense, a much better schedule could have been attained in case the AQ wasn't earned.

Not trying to talk smack, just providing my analysis of the situation. I hope it isn't true, but I fear the Patriot is happy with their AQ and content to play like minded schools rather than build at large worthy resumes. I would never find fault with that decision, but it would be sad to see that happen. I suppose we'll know soon enough with the scholarship decision. Of course in the coming years with expanded playoffs and more at large berths available...........xwhistlex xwhistlex

Lehigh also plays Harvard and Georgetown is not an OOC game. My belief is a 9-2 Lehigh would have the best chance of an at-large unless a team goes 10-1 but fails to get the auto-bid. The one thing i do believe is that the selection committee looks more favorably upon the Ivies than you do. The top two teams in the Ivy are usually ranked in the top 25 which helps if you beat them. They also come with good computer numbers as well as a number of very talented players. All said, Lehigh has the potential to play 3-4 Top 25 teams throughout the year which is probably more than a lot of other teams outside of the CAA can say.

No matter what, the PL has had much more playoff success the last 10 years than the OVC and MEAC. You can talk all you want about the worthiness of their teams but at least they've shown some fight. This should be the best the league has been during the last 3-4 years. Fellow league members might not want to agree but i think the PL is better of when Lehigh is one of the teams to beat. Having the Hawks struggle the last few years has hurt. Lehigh gives the league a program that looks and feels like a national program. Also, i believe their ceiling is a little higher because they have a little more resources than the other schools with the current aid rules.

[Fordham]

I've looked at the Patriot League's OOC schedule and because it is so heavily weighted with Ivy opponents, their OOC schedule too. There are just a few games that will allow the PL to post "statement wins". The Ivy only has a few such games so I just don't see how the second place PL team will have a resume to match teams from the power conferences. The reality is that those teams don't need statement wins because they will have played multiple games against top 25 teams during their regular season which the PL teams won't be able to match.

Bucknell: @Duquesne, Robert Morris, @Cornell, Marist, @Penn
Colgate: Monmouth, Stony Brook, @Dartmouth, Cornell, @Princeton
Fordham: @URI, Columbia, Old Dominion (ODU), Bryant, @Cornell
Georgetown: Yale, Howard, @ODU, Davidson, Richmond
Holy Cross: Sacred Heart, Harvard, @Northeastern, @Brown, Dartmouth
Lafayette: Liberty, Penn, @Yale, Columbia, @Harvard
Lehigh: CCSU, @Villanova, Princeton, Georgetown, Yale

AQ Conference teams
63 scholarship teams

Ivy League games against AQ League (not Patriot)/63 Scollie Teams:

Brown @ Stony Brook
Brown vs URI
Dartmouth @ UNH
Penn vs. Villanova
Princeton vs. The Citadel

Please explain how the 2nd place Patriot team would muster enough with those schedules to get an at large bid over for example a CAA team that has played 4-5 top 25 teams as well as a FBS team? Even if they were 10-1 or 9-2, I'm not sure they earn a bid over a power conference team that was 7-4 and played multiple top 25 teams and a FBS team. Just because they have a gaudy record? That hasn't worked for the Pioneer League. And I don't think the 2nd Place Patriot team would deserve a bid over an NEC or Big South team that met the criteria that has been set aside for them.

As a voter on the AGS poll, I never put too much stock into one win (or loss) because it can be an aberration. I want to see it followed up before I move a team much (in either direction). Unfortunately, the Patriot OOC slate (along with the Ivy OOC slate) doesn't give me much opportunity to see that. Unless Lehigh spanks Villanova or Georgetown beats Richmond or a couple of those five Ivy games are wins, I just don't see anything that will provide a bump up into the rankings.

I don't mean to pick on Holy Cross, but they're pretty universally viewed as a top title contender in the Patriot. Now within any league upsets happen and with only six league games, it is easier to get knocked out of first place by an upset. I understand playing Harvard and Dartmouth, long time regional rivals (not sure Brown falls into the same category xconfusedx), but when Northeastern is your CAA OOC game (instead of UMass like the past two years), why wouldn't you play Albany/CCSU/Monmouth for a NEC OOC game that would dramatically improve your SOS over Sacred Heart (NEC)? And why wouldn't you play UNH/Maine/URI instead of Brown if you were REALLY trying to provide an at large worthy resume to the committee in case of said upset? For about the same travel expense, a much better schedule could have been attained in case the AQ wasn't earned.

Not trying to talk smack, just providing my analysis of the situation. I hope it isn't true, but I fear the Patriot is happy with their AQ and content to play like minded schools rather than build at large worthy resumes. I would never find fault with that decision, but it would be sad to see that happen. I suppose we'll know soon enough with the scholarship decision. Of course in the coming years with expanded playoffs and more at large berths available...........xwhistlex xwhistlex

I think the last few years have seen a struggle for the last few playoff spots between teams that are 8 - 3 and even 7 - 4 (correct me if wrong there, just going off of memory). Right or wrong it would be tough to keep any team from an auto-bid conference out that only has 2 losses in that scenario. Again, I'm not arguing against your point of worthiness but moreso looking at it realistically (imo).

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

I think the last few years have seen a struggle for the last few playoff spots between teams that are 8 - 3 and even 7 - 4 (correct me if wrong there, just going off of memory). Right or wrong it would be tough to keep any team from an auto-bid conference out that only has 2 losses in that scenario. Again, I'm not arguing against your point of worthiness but moreso looking at it realistically (imo).

IMHO, a 7-4 power conference team with all D-I wins having played 4-5 top 25 teams as well as a FBS team gets in over a 8-3 PL team in a heartbeat. And frankly with those OOC schedules, I think they probably get in over a 9-2 PL team. Lehigh at 9-2 would get a more serious look than the others due to the Villanova game. Only time will tell. I guess my main point is that the Patriot could do more to make it an easier decision for the committee. xpeacex I'm trying to look at it realistically too.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

1. Lehigh (9-2, 6-1), Lehigh loses to Villanova and Fordham
2. Holy Cross (10-1, 6-1) loses to Lehigh
3. Colgate (8-3, 4-2)
4. Fordham (7-4, 3-3)
5. Lafayette (6-5, 3-3)
6. Bucknell (6-5, 2-4)
7. Georgetown (1-10, 0-6)

Gave HC and Lehigh an extra conference game. Change that to 5-1 for both.

[bison137]

Not according to the PL pre-season media guide.

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/patr/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/2009GeorgetownHoyas.pdf


The guide shows Georgetown returning 17 positional starters plus their punter and place-kicker.

[TheValleyRaider]

I see what you're saying UNH, and I'm sympathetic. Overall the scheduling this year for the PL is weak, though I think that somewhat unfairly underestimates the potential quality of top NEC squads like Albany, Monmouth, CCSU, a full-scholarship programs like Stony Brook and Liberty

That being said, in terms of qualification for the postseason, Fordham has it right. The committee is not afraid to, and even seems to prefer, selecting an 8 or 9 win team from a weaker conference (PL, OVC, MEAC) in the place of a 4th or 5th squad from a stronger conference like the SoCon or CAA. Take 2007, for example. UNH qualifies for the playoffs at 7-4 and the 5th qualifier from the CAA. But, if Colgate wins at Holy Cross (and they led in the 4th quarter), it seems very likely the Raiders grab that last at-large bid.

In this case, it's not always a question of quality, but quantity (of wins) xpeacex

For the record, while I think there's enough quality in the PL to get a 2nd bid, there may enough quality league-wide that prevents a 2nd team from putting together the kind of season that would warrent an at-large, or would do better than getting on the bubble xtwocentsx

[ngineer]

The only way I see a PL team getting a bid beyond the AQ would be a tie for first place. A second place finish will not be enough. But if HC and LU were to tie at 5-1 and Lehigh has either beaten or lost very close games to Villanova and Harvard, then they would be in the mix. Additionally, the PL as acquitted itself fairly well over the last 12 years when in the playoffs and having a history of being able to compete doesn't hurt when you're on the 'bubble'.

[TheValleyRaider]

Patriot League standings as I'm guessing them right now


Holy Cross.....5-1.....9-2
Colgate........4-2.....8-3
Fordham........4-2.....9-2
Lehigh.........4-2.....8-3
Lafayette......3-3.....5-6
Bucknell.......1-5.....5-6
Georgetown.....0-6.....3-8

HC takes the League, only loss coming at Lehigh

CU, LU and FU tie at 4-2 in the middle of the pack. CU gets the tiebreaker having beaten both of them in Hamilton, FU beats LU in the Bronx

LC has a downer year, but does upset CU at home

BU starts strong OOC, but falters in League games down the stretch

GU improves, but I'm having a hard time picking a game for them to win in the PL right now. OOC wins over Marist, ODU and Howard

A 2nd bid is plausible, but like ngineer points out, a tie for 1st would be the most likely possibility. LU would probably be the best choice, but then again, their 2 PL losses would be the 2 teams they're tied with. Probably behind an 8/9-win OVC or MEAC squad for a 2nd at-large, possibly behind even a champ from the non-autobids (Great West, NEC, Big South)

I might change my mind on this tomorrow, I'll definitely change it as the season goes along :p

[DFW HOYA]

Georgetown has to win PL games this year--do the math. With 22 seniors, a 1-22 record in the PL in four years is not enough.

[ngineer]

Georgetown has to win PL games this year--do the math. With 22 seniors, a 1-22 record in the PL in four years is not enough.

For your sake, I hope your are right. I think bouncing back on 9/12 would be terrific!;) Actually, that will be the 'pards first game, and on the road, maybe the Hoyas can catch 'em slow out of the blocks.

[Fordham]

IMHO, a 7-4 power conference team with all D-I wins having played 4-5 top 25 teams as well as a FBS team gets in over a 8-3 PL team in a heartbeat. And frankly with those OOC schedules, I think they probably get in over a 9-2 PL team. Lehigh at 9-2 would get a more serious look than the others due to the Villanova game. Only time will tell. I guess my main point is that the Patriot could do more to make it an easier decision for the committee. xpeacex I'm trying to look at it realistically too.

I agree with you that the 7 - 4 team in that scenario should get in but disagree that this is what would actually happen. 9 - 2 from any autobid conference is tough to say no to. Perhaps an 8 - 3 team but not a 7 - 4 team. Again, just my opinion but I remember some of the discussions in recent years and it always seemed that 2 losses was a pretty sure thing to get in.

[Franks Tanks]

Everyone is picking Lehigh to have a 9-3 or 8-3 type year and I just dont see it.. sorry. I will eat crow if i'm wrong xlolx. I believe Lehigh will have a better year than Lafayette, but only by a game or two.

I think the Cross is hands down the best team in the league this year and they will take the championship. Lehigh and Colgate will battle for second. Lafayette will be a solid 4th place and have a rather medicore and frustrating year. Fordham manages to find a way to implode again. Bucknell makes strides but doesnt quite get over the hump. Georgetown will be Georgetown.

[LUHawker]

I believe Lehigh will have a better year than Lafayette, but only by a game or two.

I think the Cross is hands down the best team in the league this year and they will take the championship.

A game or two is all the difference in the Patriot League.

HC has the best quarterback, hands-down. The best team, well we'll have to see about that.

Lehigh is definitely on the upswing. 8-3 is very achievable. 9-2 would be optimistic. 7-4 acceptable, but depends on what happens in the PL and against the Pards to determine if that result is cheered or not.

[colorless raider]

I see Colgate 7-4 and possibly 8-3. Not enough depth to sustain for 11 straight weeks. HC, 'Gate and Lehigh all can win it in the PL.

[ngineer]

I see a lot of close games again this year. One would think Lehigh can get over the hump this year in close ones. Could very easily have been 8-3 last year. I will be disappointed if we go worse than 8-3. 7-4 would be nice improvement over 2008, but I expect more from what I have seen and heard.

[Andy]

Will be a dogfight all the way.

HC #1 with Lehigh a close 2nd.

Randolph as OPOY

Cohen as DPOY

I look to Fordham to finally play up to talent could beat HC in a shootout.

Gate will play everyone tough but avg D and inexperienced OL holds them back
LC lack of depth QB avg at best ,D some star power but not as good as last year.

BU unknown quantity great skill players neither line that good but scheme will win them a couple

GU will upset a couple as they learn how to win, just hope it s not LU

Rich, the "avg at best QB" is 9-2 in games he's started and finished. He's beaten the #14 ranked team in the country, was the MVP of the '07 Lafayette-Lehigh game and, IMHO, was leading his team to a PL championship before this hit at Colgate where he was playing extremely well:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFw8qfzHnqE

Lafayette can beat anyone in the league.

[RichH2]

Andy, I do not dispute your numbers but I have seen him play 3 times now and he isagood manager but not anymore than average at best as a runner or passer. He did not lose any of the games I saw nor was he the catalyst to win them either. The LC team , particularly your D won the 2 wins I saw.

[Go...gate]

I see Colgate 7-4 and possibly 8-3. Not enough depth to sustain for 11 straight weeks. HC, 'Gate and Lehigh all can win it in the PL.

I'm picking Colgate 6-5 or 7-4. HC, Lehigh or Fordham to win the conference.

[RamRay]

;)Lehigh or Fordham? wow, you like bucking the trend. I see Fordham making a comeback, but as in the past, a big fight between HC, Colgate, Lehigh and whoever wins out between Fordham and Lafayette

[Go...gate]

Welcome, RamRay!!! :)

[carney2]

1. Who walks away with the 2009 Patriot League crown?

2. Who finishes behind them?

3. Any guesses at Players/Coach of the Year?

4. Is this is a year for an at-large birth?

1. Colgate or Fordham or Holy Cross or Lafayette or Lehigh

2. Colgate or Fordham or Holy Cross or Lafayette or Lehigh

3. Biddle or Masella or Gilmore or Tavani or Coen/Randolph or no one/Cohen or Leggiero

4. Not a prayer.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Everyone is picking Lehigh to have a 9-3 or 8-3 type year and I just dont see it.. sorry. I will eat crow if i'm wrong xlolx. I believe Lehigh will have a better year than Lafayette, but only by a game or two.

I think the Cross is hands down the best team in the league this year and they will take the championship. Lehigh and Colgate will battle for second. Lafayette will be a solid 4th place and have a rather medicore and frustrating year. Fordham manages to find a way to implode again. Bucknell makes strides but doesnt quite get over the hump. Georgetown will be Georgetown.

The biggest reason why i think they can be obtain 8/9 wins is the schedule. Call it the Notre Dame schedule syndrome. They have 7 home games which is almost unheard of for a PL school. Yale and Princeton were hit hard by graduation and are picked for the middle of the pack in the Ivy. Harvard will be tough but Lehigh had them beat last year but just couldn't finish the deal at the 10.

Saturday will tell the tale IMO. Lehigh DOES need to win this game. It's the home opener against a beatable opponent. If Lehigh loses they have no shot against 'Nova. You need to beat CCSU at home if before you can justify being able to hang with 'Nova.

Coen needs to show he has finally got the team play a full 60 minute game. Lehigh lost 4 games last year by a combined 8 points. Those are they games they have to prove they can win. Like i said, it starts on Saturday.